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  • Your Draft Philosophy

    Now that the hay is in the barn for the 2014 OM Mock Draft, and we still have two more weeks until the real thing, we can speak a bit more freely about all things draft.

    My question to you OM mock drafters is: what are a few of your general "rules for drafting" that you try to follow when selecting in the mock? To start things off, here are a few of mine:

    1) Never draft a running back in rounds 1-3. Never, ever, ever. The Knowshon Moreno pick at #12 was the beginning of my McDaniels hatred, as I knew that equal or better value could be found much later in the draft at that position.

    2) Always draft at least one quarterback (or pick one up in the UDFA round): the Green Bay Packers philosophy. Over the long term, this pays off big-time. Best case, you hit on a Tom Brady once every 10 years. Worst case, you have a Matt Flynn situation where another team steals your developmental prospect, but you get a 3rd round comp pick in return. Carry three QBs on your roster at all times, and have two on the practice squad as well.

    3) The 2nd/3rd round is the sweet spot. Two choices in the 2nd is better than one in the first, and four choices in the 3rd is better than two in the 2nd.



    Anyone else....?

  • #2
    Follow my board, who cares about MUG's scoring system. Also I don't care if the player doesn't fit the current scheme or not. When we look back at the draft, we will be judged by how a player turns out. There's a strong chance the player doesn't get drafted to the most fitting scheme anyway.

    Comment


    • #3
      I don't have a board per se but I stick to drafting guys where I believe they belong. I would rather draft approximate value than to overdraft a guy because I like him.
      I believe in getting the best player available regardless of position because depth changes.

      Comment


      • #4
        Mine changes every year. I change and adapt. This year it was Do the Broncos Proud!

        So, I made picks like Xavier Su'a-Filo at 31 versus who I would have in previous years. Who wants a Guard in round one, not me. But it fit the broncos so I did it.

        I usually draft value later, but this year I reached a little for what I wanted. Bullough was not going to get to where I wanted to draft him, so I reached a little. I sacrificed value for the true value of the player I perceived.

        I missed on the fifth round pick of Bennett because of a family emergency and should have drafted Shaquille Richardson ARI. He was the big Corner I wanted, instead I got Jackson who has slid in the media recently. I just appreciate MUG helping me out there, I was in a real jam and did not want to screw up the draft.

        That's about all I will share

        Comment


        • #5
          I do my best to get players I think will fit in the schemes those teams run. I have been 4-3 teams, 3-4 teams and feel like I have a pretty good grasp of what prospects fit where. That is a challenge to me. This was the first year I got to pick as high as I did, so it was a little interesting.

          I do my best to stick to my board, but since things are fluid, workouts and new info pops up, I adjust a bit to the times. I think it is important to remain fluid.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Mediator12 View Post
            Mine changes every year. I change and adapt. This year it was Do the Broncos Proud!

            So, I made picks like Xavier Su'a-Filo at 31 versus who I would have in previous years. Who wants a Guard in round one, not me. But it fit the broncos so I did it.

            I usually draft value later, but this year I reached a little for what I wanted. Bullough was not going to get to where I wanted to draft him, so I reached a little. I sacrificed value for the true value of the player I perceived.

            I missed on the fifth round pick of Bennett because of a family emergency and should have drafted Shaquille Richardson ARI. He was the big Corner I wanted, instead I got Jackson who has slid in the media recently. I just appreciate MUG helping me out there, I was in a real jam and did not want to screw up the draft.

            That's about all I will share
            I agree that a team's draft philosophy can be situational -- the Broncos are one of the clearest examples of "draft for immediate impact" that I can remember in a long time. We really do need all of our draft picks to contribute in 2014 and/or 2015, because that's our realistic window for bringing home a championship.

            Not a wise way to draft in general, but absolutely necessary for this year, for this team. While I appreciate the wisdom in drafting Brock Osweiler two years ago, I wonder if Lavonte David might not have been the missing ingredient for a championship in 2012 or 2013....

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Requiem View Post
              I do my best to get players I think will fit in the schemes those teams run. I have been 4-3 teams, 3-4 teams and feel like I have a pretty good grasp of what prospects fit where. That is a challenge to me. This was the first year I got to pick as high as I did, so it was a little interesting.

              I do my best to stick to my board, but since things are fluid, workouts and new info pops up, I adjust a bit to the times. I think it is important to remain fluid.
              Yeah, when reviewing my past mistakes in the OM mock draft, the common thread was that I was "locked" into a player, and had penciled their name into a draft slot weeks in advance. Once you do that, you open the door for confirmation bias to take over.

              This year, I was very mindful to compare all of my 'targeted' players with other players that were available when I was on the clock, and to do a full cost-benefit analysis of each player in the range.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by BowlenBall View Post
                Yeah, when reviewing my past mistakes in the OM mock draft, the common thread was that I was "locked" into a player, and had penciled their name into a draft slot weeks in advance. Once you do that, you open the door for confirmation bias to take over.

                This year, I was very mindful to compare all of my 'targeted' players with other players that were available when I was on the clock, and to do a full cost-benefit analysis of each player in the range.
                This was my mistake in all years as well. This year turned out quite a bit different because I had guys I was locked onto but they were taken, which FORCED me to go to my board of BPA in that spot.

                Example was Round 1: I wanted Pryor, Dix, or Dennard in that order. It was not an option, so I went with the guy who best fit Cardinals scheme and BPA (although Mosley and Shazier scare me that I did wrong)

                Round 2: I wanted a OT, the guy I wanted was taken, so I went with the guy who could have been a first rounder.

                My "philosophy"

                1) Rounds 1-3: Go BPA for the player needed on the team if its not a huge reach.
                2) 4-7: BPA all the way.
                3) Try and find a youtube video ("film") that shows the guy highlighted or circled, not necessarily just his highlights.
                4) Try if possible to take guys that I actually watched a real college game of. (Hageman was my example here. Watched him a few times this year)

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by ludo21 View Post
                  This was my mistake in all years as well. This year turned out quite a bit different because I had guys I was locked onto but they were taken, which FORCED me to go to my board of BPA in that spot.

                  Example was Round 1: I wanted Pryor, Dix, or Dennard in that order. It was not an option, so I went with the guy who best fit Cardinals scheme and BPA (although Mosley and Shazier scare me that I did wrong)

                  Round 2: I wanted a OT, the guy I wanted was taken, so I went with the guy who could have been a first rounder.

                  My "philosophy"

                  1) Rounds 1-3: Go BPA for the player needed on the team if its not a huge reach.
                  2) 4-7: BPA all the way.
                  3) Try and find a youtube video ("film") that shows the guy highlighted or circled, not necessarily just his highlights.
                  4) Try if possible to take guys that I actually watched a real college game of. (Hageman was my example here. Watched him a few times this year)
                  Point #3 is a good one -- I throw around the term "film" or "tape" a bit too much, as I'm not watching the all-22 films where you can really see what's going on. In general, I'm just watching full games on the international ESPN college package, which is OK but not great for evaluating non-ball-carriers, as the camera constantly shifts away from the line of scrimmage once the play starts. YouTube highlight films are worse than nothing, as they only show a player at his absolute best. I'd rather just go off of paper-based stats and not see highlights at all, if that's my only option.

                  To be honest, I don't watch college football **at all** during the fall, as it's hard to work into my schedule due to the time difference. In some ways, I think that gives me an advantage over some of the other mock drafters, as I don't 'fall in love' with a prospect during the season, which again leads to the confirmation bias trap with prospects....

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Mediator12 View Post
                    Mine changes every year. I change and adapt. This year it was Do the Broncos Proud!

                    So, I made picks like Xavier Su'a-Filo at 31 versus who I would have in previous years. Who wants a Guard in round one, not me. But it fit the broncos so I did it.

                    I usually draft value later, but this year I reached a little for what I wanted. Bullough was not going to get to where I wanted to draft him, so I reached a little. I sacrificed value for the true value of the player I perceived.

                    I missed on the fifth round pick of Bennett because of a family emergency and should have drafted Shaquille Richardson ARI. He was the big Corner I wanted, instead I got Jackson who has slid in the media recently. I just appreciate MUG helping me out there, I was in a real jam and did not want to screw up the draft.

                    That's about all I will share
                    Happy to help. I'm not too worried about Jackson, I think he and Richardson will go in the 5th at worst. I like him a lot as a Free Safety/sub-package, which is why I thought he fit a bit better since you already took a pure CB in EJ Gaines. Coverage safety is one of my highest perceived needs for the Broncos. Still, if Richardson goes a lot higher, I'll feel bad. I thought he'd still be there in the 6th if you wanted him then, but we had strong drafters this year.

                    A lot of the guys I was really high on have shot up media boards recently, so feeling pretty good at the moment. I expect Tre Boston, Bennett Jackson, Cornelious Lucas, Shaq Evans, and Beau Allen to be next.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Here's how I drafted:

                      Rounds 1 - 3, I was going to take players I loved regardless of team fit, and I was willing to move up to get them. If I lost draft value points, that was ok as well. I wanted "my" guys. And I got them in Shazier, Kareem Martin, and Phillip Gaines. Really wanted Marcus Martin too, but ran out of picks to trade.

                      After that, it was BPA to maximize draft points, and again, I was willing to move up if I saw a huge value and the trade was cost effective.

                      UDFA was 100% BPA, minus the top guys. I was willing to go 20k average for 5 guys I thought might be drafted. I was not going to spend more. So, my top rated guys on my draft board I avoided due to thinking they'd be over bid, as well as any super popular media names. That worked out ok, not great. I didn't really expect to lose the guys I bid on, so I put in less effort than I should have in ranking my UDFA 5k fallback options, but it turned out fine.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Mat'hir Uth Gan View Post
                        Here's how I drafted:

                        Rounds 1 - 3, I was going to take players I loved regardless of team fit, and I was willing to move up to get them. If I lost draft value points, that was ok as well. I wanted "my" guys. And I got them in Shazier, Kareem Martin, and Phillip Gaines. Really wanted Marcus Martin too, but ran out of picks to trade.

                        After that, it was BPA to maximize draft points, and again, I was willing to move up if I saw a huge value and the trade was cost effective.

                        UDFA was 100% BPA, minus the top guys. I was willing to go 20k average for 5 guys I thought might be drafted. I was not going to spend more. So, my top rated guys on my draft board I avoided due to thinking they'd be over bid, as well as any super popular media names. That worked out ok, not great. I didn't really expect to lose the guys I bid on, so I put in less effort than I should have in ranking my UDFA 5k fallback options, but it turned out fine.
                        I think that, of all picks in this draft, your selection of Phillip Gaines will stand out the most when I think back to this draft in later years.

                        It's a good example of the Bill Belichick/Josh McDaniels philosophy of ignoring other team's boards and picking on your own schedule. Best case, it leads to picks like Logan Mankins, where you end up with an all-pro and look like a genius all at the same time. More often, though, I think you end up with a whole lot of Duron Harmons and Alphonso Smiths.

                        As with all things in life, the truth is in the middle -- draft the players you love, but always know where their value is in relation to other teams. Did it kill me to lose Phillip Gaines to you? Yes. Would I ever, ever draft him in the 2nd round? No, he really wouldn't have come into play on my board until the mid-3rd round, no matter how much I liked him (and I liked him A LOT!)

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Here are my rules
                          1. Don't draft a RB in round 1 EVER
                          2. Don't trade next years first for a 2nd in this years draft
                          3. Don't trade up into the second for a 5-7 round prospect (especially a blocking TE)
                          4. Don't draft a QB who can't pass, especially in the 1st round.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            More is not necessarily better, but this draft is different. Take into consideration the Broncos lack talented depth, trading down at least once if not twice is the way to go in this draft. I mean, the Broncos had to bring in some castoff vets last season that will have a tough time making a team this year.

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                            • #15
                              I like to trade all of my picks for the top rb in the draft

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