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Fantasy draft: Manning at #2?

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  • Fantasy draft: Manning at #2?

    Quick one guys...I have my Fantasy draft later this week and play in a 10-team QB-friendly league (6 pts per passing TD, 1 pt per 50 passing yards). I have the #2 overall pick.

    With the Yahoo projection of Manning throwing 41 TDs and looking at the "worst starter" average value (for those unfamiliar the average value is a way to determine drop off in point difference between players), the numbers would tell me to take Manning at #2 (the numbers would actually indicate he go #1 overall).

    In other words Manning is projected to outscore QBs 2-10 by a much greater margin then the top RBs will outscore RBs 2-20.

    With the #2 pick in this years draft, with 3 solid RBs (Peterson, McCoy, Charles), it feels counter intuitive to take a QB so high....but the numbers would dictate as such.

    Thoughts?

  • #2
    NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    • #3
      Adrian Peterson if available. LaSean McCoy if Peterson not available.

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      • #4
        2 seems a little high but Manning could put up some incredible numbers. If the draft is a snake format that means you wont be drafting a RB uptil possibly #19, who do you think will be left then?

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        • #5
          Manning @ 6 in that format... No earlier.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Navy Broncos Fan View Post
            2 seems a little high but Manning could put up some incredible numbers. If the draft is a snake format that means you wont be drafting a RB uptil possibly #19, who do you think will be left then?
            Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Gio Bernard, Alfred Morris

            I don't see anything wrong with taking Manning second
            I was in a 6 passing TD league last year and the team that won it had Manning

            No one has ever drafted Peyton Manning and regretted it

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            • #7
              If it's PPR...sort of a toss up. You are statistically better going with Shady or AP before any QB but then it's Brees or Manning IMO. I could see him going #2 overall, but PPR it's a little bit of a risk.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Navy Broncos Fan View Post
                2 seems a little high but Manning could put up some incredible numbers. If the draft is a snake format that means you wont be drafting a RB uptil possibly #19, who do you think will be left then?
                Yep.

                Just my opinion of course, but the last few years I have gone RB early since it's not as deep, then shot for QB value later. It all depends of course, but I try to stick to that.

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                • #9
                  Take Manning. Least risk pick available. He went #1 in a draft last night.

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                  • #10
                    Here's my logic, for what its worth:

                    Manning at QB1 is projected to score 358 points in this format....Cutler is QB10 (ie. "worst starter") and is projected to score 248 points. 110 point differential.

                    Peterson/McCoy/Charles are all projected to score around 175 (give or take a few points) in this format....Spiller/Matthews are RB20 (ie. "worst starter) and projected to score 110 points. 68 point differential.

                    Quite honestly, using the worst starter value differential like this, there are actually 3 QBs in the top 10...Manning, Brees, and Rodgers. To add, draft-wise, this league is always a "QB-early" league unlike some others that emphasize RBs early.

                    If I did take Manning, at picks 19 and 22 (my 2nd and 3rd rounders) I'd probably end up with some combination of a RB like Stacy/Morris/Foster/Bell/Martin/Bernard/Ellington/Gore/Gerhart, a WR like Green/Jones/Jeffrey, or possibly even one of the elite TEs in Graham or Orange Julius.

                    On the flip-side, the guy picking #1 has been known to make some unusual/aggressive picks so I think there is some consideration he may take Manning #1.

                    I've had mixed luck drafting on "value differential" like the above in the past, but I have won this league twice doing it....its just very counter intuitive for me to have the #2 pick and take a QB.

                    Big picture - the math tells me to take Manning....my brain/intuition, based on Fantasy norms, say to take Peterson/McCoy/Charles.

                    - this is why I love having late round picks in 10 team leagues....it takes a little pressure off and you don't have to wait so long for the snake to come back around for round 2.

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                    • #11
                      Don't know your scoring system but I'd take my QB much later and focus on RB/WR studs the first 3-4 rounds at least. I drafted later than you but went with a zero RB strategy this year targeting WR and grabbing RB in later rounds. Still a lot of productive QBs to be had late.

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                      • #12
                        I wouldn't take a qb in the first round. Even manning. First 3 picks should be a combo of rb, rb, te....then wideouts next 2 rounds, then best rb/wr available next 2, then a combo of romo/backup qb in the 8th-9th.

                        Then sleepers and a defense.

                        Good luck.

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                        • #13
                          manning is top 12, but probably not top 5

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by toad View Post
                            Quick one guys...I have my Fantasy draft later this week and play in a 10-team QB-friendly league (6 pts per passing TD, 1 pt per 50 passing yards). I have the #2 overall pick.

                            With the Yahoo projection of Manning throwing 41 TDs and looking at the "worst starter" average value (for those unfamiliar the average value is a way to determine drop off in point difference between players), the numbers would tell me to take Manning at #2 (the numbers would actually indicate he go #1 overall).

                            In other words Manning is projected to outscore QBs 2-10 by a much greater margin then the top RBs will outscore RBs 2-20.

                            With the #2 pick in this years draft, with 3 solid RBs (Peterson, McCoy, Charles), it feels counter intuitive to take a QB so high....but the numbers would dictate as such.

                            Thoughts?
                            These two don't go hand in hand. Most leagues it's a point per 25 yards. Manning's projections are based on the 25 yard format, not 50 yards which cuts your points from yards in half.

                            Smarten up and take a RB.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by canadianbroncosfan View Post
                              These two don't go hand in hand. Most leagues it's a point per 25 yards. Manning's projections are based on the 25 yard format, not 50 yards which cuts your points from yards in half.
                              To be fair, the projected points noted were using the exact scoring format for this league.

                              ~5500 yards and ~41 TDs was Manning's projection for 2014; that's ~110 points from yards, ~250 points from TDs.

                              How exactly that is projected, I don't know...surely its an algorithm of past performance and strength of schedule. For whatever its worth this was equivalent of Drew Brees' numbers from 2 years ago (he had 5200 yards and 43 TDs that season) so it seems as reasonable as any other projections.

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