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Broncos Offense has actually gotten better since StL game.

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  • #61
    one metric I like to look at is points per drive. This was brought to my attention last year in the Charger playoff game - it's not really about scoring points, it's about scoring more than your opponent. Both teams have a roughly equal number of possessions - within two anyways. So, what's really important is what you do with your possessions that count.

    Well I'll be go to hell. So you're saying if the Broncos score more points, they'll probably win? Advanced metrics are awesome!

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    • #62
      Originally posted by Cito Pelon View Post
      You sure don't use your "inner thighs" to throw. Jesus, c'mon man.
      Yeah, Im sure you don't use major leg muscles to shuffle, plant, and drive the ball downfield.

      It's all ankle muscles, right?
      Last edited by Powderaddict; 01-05-2015, 09:16 PM.

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      • #63
        Originally posted by mwill07 View Post
        yeah it does. You could discount for non-offensive scores or turnovers if you were so inclined, I'm not. You could also discount for end of half drives that consist of kneel downs, but I don't feel like adding that all up.

        You cannot have more drives than your opponent due to turnovers. If your drive ends in a TD, FG, punt, safety, fumble, interception, your drive is over and the other teams drive begins.

        Really, there are only two ways you can have more possessions than your opponent: (1) possess the ball at the end of both halves (2) recover a kick-off (fumble, on-sides recovery).
        (3) fumbles on punts.

        i understood what i was writing when i wrote it. not sure why you think you had to tell me you were sure i was wrong and then list the precise reasons why i was actually right.

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        • #64
          I'm sure Manning having a major case of vomiting and diarrhea before the Chargers game leading to dehydration and straining a muscle in his leg while running out of the pocket had nothing to do with his "inner thigh" problem. Nevermind that the dude left the game early at halftime to gen an IV.

          And he was chucking 50-yard bombs in the 3rd quarter against the Bengals.

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          • #65
            The inner thigh thing is absolutely absurd.

            The scoring metric isn't perfect, but none of them are. That said, points from Special Teams and turnovers are far more rare than points off of traditional drives. The goal remains the same: points per drive, protect the ball, and protect field position. Pretty damn good formula for winning playoff games.

            Manning's "underwhelming play" (can't believe he's being blamed for an injury), won't matter if the points per drive metric is true. That metric factored the games where he played less than stellar.

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            • #66
              Originally posted by pricejj View Post
              In other words, Manning is like a cheap 2-bit whore. Inner thighs weakened and sore from decades of overuse.
              More like opposing defenses going in dry.

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              • #67
                Originally posted by Powderaddict View Post
                Yeah, Im sure you don't use major leg muscles to shuffle, plant, and drive the ball downfield.

                It's all ankle muscles, right?
                You are correct. Planting your feet and generating power from the legs up is essential to accuracy and a good throwing motion. The "inner thigh" people keep referring to are your adductor muscles. An injury to your adductors will affect your stability and movement which in turn will definitely affect throwing motion, so yes the "inner thigh" is important. If you have an opinion otherwise you are ****ing wrong because this is fact. Now for the more important part, the post about him changing his motion and overusing his "inner thigh" is bull****. Peyton has an amazing throwing motion and the only reason for his crappy accuracy has been from not planting his feet, mostly from being pressured. He can still put the ball on the money and far down field when he has a clean pocket and can step into his throw.
                Last edited by PatriotsDidIt; 01-05-2015, 11:32 PM.

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                • #68
                  Offensive production only. Not counting kneel-downs, end-of-game.


                  Manning No-huddle Offense:
                  1. Colts - 10 drives, 31 points
                  2. Chiefs - 7 drives, 24 points
                  3. Seattle - 13 drives, 18 points
                  4. Cardinals - 14 drives, 41 points
                  5. Jets - 12 drives, 24 points
                  6. 49ers - 10 drives, 42 points
                  7. Chargers - 10 drives, 35 points
                  8. Patriots - 13 drives, 21 points
                  Total - 89 drives, 236 points (2.65 ppd), 11.13 dpg, 29.5 ppg


                  Run-first Offense:
                  11. Dolphins - 8 drives, 39 points
                  12. Chiefs - 12 drives, 29 points
                  13. Bills - 10 drives, 24 points
                  14. Chargers - 9 drives, 22 points
                  15. Bengals - 14 drives, 21 points
                  Total - 53 drives, 135 points (2.54 ppd), 10.6 dpg, 27 ppg


                  Odd games :
                  9. Raiders - 14 drives, 41 points
                  10. Rams - 11 drives, 7 points
                  16. Raiders - 12 drives, 40 points




                  Total season - 179 drives, 459 points (2.56 ppd), 11.19 dpg, 28.69 ppg



                  ppd = points per drive
                  dpg = drives per game
                  ppg = points per game
                  Last edited by pricejj; 01-05-2015, 11:36 PM.

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                  • #69
                    Basically, since the Offensive change, the Broncos have had about a half-drive less per game, and averaged about the same points per drive. Scoring has been reduced about 2.5 ppg. The reduced pace should have only led to about a 1.25 ppg point reduction. Nothing to be concerned about.

                    Probably a real good thing they've slightly reduced their pace, otherwise the injury list might be a lot longer. Also a good thing that we're no longer scared to run the ball.
                    Last edited by pricejj; 01-05-2015, 11:42 PM.

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                    • #70
                      I don't know if Manning's thigh is injured and effecting his throws, but to say that your thigh muscles are irrelevant to throwing is plain wrong.

                      I tend to agree with the thought it has more to do with pressure, and his ability to plant his feet more than anything.

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                      • #71
                        Originally posted by mwill07 View Post
                        one metric I like to look at is points per drive. This was brought to my attention last year in the Charger playoff game - it's not really about scoring points, it's about scoring more than your opponent. Both teams have a roughly equal number of possessions - within two anyways. So, what's really important is what you do with your possessions that count.

                        It doesn't really matter if a team can score in :30, or if it takes a 15 play, 8:00 drive, both drives end in a TD. The former leads to high-scoring shootout games, the later leads to low scoring, grind it out games. Both are good, and both can be dominant, it's not really fair to say that the former is better than the latter, so long as points are going on the board.

                        So, points per drive is probably the most important offensive metric to look at. The Broncos finished 2014 with 2.43, 4th in the league behind Green Bay (2.88), New England (2.59), and Dallas (2.47). League average is 1.93.

                        What is interesting is that the Broncos offensive efficiency went up after the Rams game. Despite the lack of high end of game scores, the Broncos were actually scoring at a higher rate than before.

                        Heading into the StL game, The Broncos were scoring at a 2.51 points/drive clip. After StL, they went run-heavy and points/drive actually went up to 2.66.

                        further, prior to the Rams game, the Broncos punted on average 4.9 times a game. After the Rams game, they punted 3.3 times per game.

                        I know it's easy to be concerned with the offense scoring in the mid 20s for consecutive weeks, especially after being spoiled with last years offense and multiple 40+ point games early on, but the fact is that the new run-centric offense is actually more efficient.
                        Yards per drive is actually more accurate over the course of a season, but nothing is accurate in a vacuum. I will also state that DEN was #1 in Offensive YPD and in Points Per Drive (PPD) until the outlier of the STL game that has caused DEN to adjust their strategy and incorporate the run heavy and traditional offense over the Spread no huddle with 11 personnel.

                        DEN has decided to play the game differently on both Offense and Defense since that game. The results have been mixed and there is nothing definitive that can be extrapolated from the Stats alone here. It's just entirely too small a sample size and too many conflicting variables that can not explain the Why's of the matter. The ONLY real thing these stats show, is DEN has played in this obvious to see new style of play.

                        As for Peyton's throwing motion, it is not that it has changed on the surface per say. It is that he has to strain much more than he did to start the year to throw the ball. Nerve damage and Overuse injuries mean the muscle can not fire properly all the time, but it can still fire and fire properly. So, sometimes it works just fine and he can pitch the ball 50 yards down the field and on a dime. And, sometimes it does not fire properly and you get a mess of a throw.

                        That is how fine the line is between a big play and an underthrown interception. It also would explain why DEN is throwing the ball less and less when teams stack the box on Peyton. A healthy Peyton Manning used to drool at the opportunity to get teams out of 2 deep coverage's and throw the ball downfield. Now, he does not audible out of most runs even when the defense is so obviously stacked against the play.

                        It also explains why DEN wants to try and limit the amount of passes he is throwing per game and daily. These type of injuries get worse with more use. The only time DEN really has chucked it around was in CIN and we all saw how throwing the ball 40+ times worked out. DEN had zero offense in that first half trying to minimize Peyton's throws to only 15 attempts. When he threw 30 in the second half, he was brilliant for awhile until he made some really poor throws and then made some even more poor decisions. It seems he gets more inconsistent with his accuracy passing the ball with more use.

                        This is a gross oversimplification, but it does all fit with what we see. Peyton is just not right the more he throws the ball. It also shows in how inaccurate the ball is when it gets there. Peyton has never had the laser rocket arm and can not be accused of always throwing a tight spiral. However, no matter the ugliness of the throw it was right where it should be, on time, and catchable. That does not describe 50% of his throws since the STL game.

                        There are also a ton more conflicting variables to consider. The timing IS being thrown off more by the opposition and they are shading him to much more difficult throws. The reads playing with a heavy set are different than the spread. JT not being able to really play has allowed teams to get more creative in pass coverage against the outside WR's as Wes Welker has been a total non-factor due to all kinds of reasons as well. The OL has been inconsistent to be kind.

                        So, while I do see a lot of issues with the way Peyton is throwing the ball, I also see a lot of mental issues for the whole offense as well. Changing to a new scheme halfway through the year, has not been without problems.

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                        • #72
                          this would explain the lousy play calling IMHO, that is, how the Broncos cannot seem to fuse a viable run game with a viable pass game and use play action effectively, thanks Mediator...

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                          • #73
                            It's time for the defense and all its high price FAs and futrure high priced FAs (hello Von) to step up and be a complimentary piece to this team
                            but the offense can't put the defense into a bad situation like they did in Cincy and Stl.

                            The refs still scare the hell out of me. They make a horrible call and send a letter the next day with "our bad , sorry we screwed you" but oh well.

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                            • #74
                              Originally posted by Mediator12 View Post
                              ...but it does all fit with what we see.
                              Yes, it certainly does. At least for some of us. Many are still in denial. The frightening thing is that this raises the question not only about this teams' chances in these playoffs, but whether or not this team can go into next season counting on Peyton Manning.

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                              • #75
                                Originally posted by TonyR View Post
                                Yes, it certainly does. At least for some of us. Many are still in denial. The frightening thing is that this raises the question not only about this teams' chances in these playoffs, but whether or not this team can go into next season counting on Peyton Manning.
                                What's so frightening about running the football more effectively, expecting the defense to play well and Manning being effective when he throws the ball less than 30 times a game?

                                Generally speaking, if your QB has to throw the ball 40+ times in a playoff game, then it's not really a good sign.

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