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Mannings previous SB seasons with the colts

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  • Mannings previous SB seasons with the colts

    One for the stats freaks here - bear me out because there is a point at the end of this.....

    Thought I'd compare Mannings previous superbowl seasons (with the colts). My thanks to pro football reference for the raw data

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/

    As you know, he actually won his first superbowl (a fact the media often seem to forget) in 2006, but then lost to the then-underdog Saints in 2009 in a manner not dissimilar to the way we got punk'd by Seattle. So, I thought I'd look and see if there was anything notable in difference between the two teams statistically

    First thing is, the 2009 team is worryingly similar to our current Broncos. The defense statistically was a lot worse in the regular season, but seemed to get its act together in the playoffs. The offense was as prolific as you'd expect, but leaned heavily on the pass much as our team does today:

    Offense:

    Pass yds/game reg season: 282.2
    Pass yds/game Playoffs: 308.7
    Rush yds/game reg season: 80.9
    Rush yds/game Playoffs: 80.7

    Defense:

    Pass yds/game reg season: 212.7
    Pass yds/game Playoffs: 255.3
    Rush yds/game reg season: 126.5
    Rush yds/game Playoffs: 74.7

    Average points (scored/Conceded)

    Reg season: 26.0/19.2
    Playoffs: 22.3/17.0

    So despite the rush defense improving massively in the playoffs (yes small sample size I know but it shows they executed!) the rush offense did not so they leaned more heavily on the pass and scored less points, winning two playoff games by comfortable margins but fading when it counted.

    Now if we look at the SB winning season in 2006 there are some interesting differences

    Offense:

    Pass yds/game reg season: 252.3
    Pass yds/game Playoffs: 243.3
    Rush yds/game reg season: 106.7
    Rush yds/game Playoffs: 138.7

    Defense:

    Pass yds/game reg season: 143.8
    Pass yds/game Playoffs: 180.3
    Rush yds/game reg season: 161.4
    Rush yds/game Playoffs: 95.7

    Average points (scored/Conceded)

    Reg season: 25.1/21.2
    Playoffs: 27.3/19.0

    In this instance the defensive turnaround against the rush was even more pronounced, but it was accompanied by an almost equally significant improvement in the rush offense too. And you see the average points/game on offense go up (again, small sample size but still interesting).

    So, big deal huh? We all know that running the ball and defending the run remain keys to success. So what's my point?

    Well, I raise this because I'm curious as to why the two teams are so different. Same OC (Tom Moore). Same main running back (Joseph Addai). More or less same offensive line.

    The answer might lie in the way the respective seasons progressed. In 2009 Manning's colts went 14-0 before all-but throwing their last 2 games with the #1 seed sewn up. They had to feel that the basic approach was a sound one and they just needed to keep it ticking over, particularly as they had won it all only 3 years previously..

    In 2006 however, things were different. They leaped out to a 9-0 start, but then finished the season going 3-4 in their last 7 games to end 12-4, winning the division but playing in the wild-card round as the 3rd seed.

    Never having won the big one, they would not have gone into the postseason feeling as confident about their approach, and would have looked to have changed some stuff, or maybe just focused on and emphasised some aspects in training more.

    The result was a sharper, more effective team that was also more wary of what can go wrong. Critically, a team that put more emphasis on being balanced. This stopped the 2006 Bears Defense from being able to focus on stopping one thing in the way that the Saints were able to three years later.

    When you look at our own team I see some similarities. After all, its almost the same o-line that was #1 in rushing only a few years ago. Granted, Tebow was the QB and added a lot to that total, but his inability to pass outside of garbage-time had teams stacking the box against us yet still we were able to execute on the ground. So I think we have been victims of our success a little bit. We've gotten away from running the ball because we've had too much success throwing it.

    If I'm right, then the potential exists to turn this thing around, become more balanced and find a winning formula. It also means we should not worry one jot about the #1 seed but more about how we're playing and how balanced the offense is. If we get it right we can beat anyone, anywhere.....
    Last edited by chrisp; 11-21-2014, 06:39 AM.

  • #2
    Get the **** out of here with your optimistic hyperbole. The only way this season can be a success is if we lose enough to get fox fired and clean house.

    #ammiritesmegmanon?!? #highfivespiralism

    Comment


    • #3
      The team began the year knowing they had to run the ball better. It has not happened due to various problems (ahem OL ahem)

      If that unit can gel in time for a run then you are right, this team can beat anyone in the league.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Eldorado View Post
        Get the **** out of here with your optimistic hyperbole. The only way this season can be a success is if we lose enough to get fox fired and clean house.

        #ammiritesmegmanon?!? #highfivespiralism

        Comment


        • #5
          Running the ball requires your O line to be able to open holes and the coaches to actually commit to running . This does not mean running on first down , into stacked lines. Varying the plays would be nice. You need to have some balance in play selection.

          And you also have to run from a standard nfl formation. Running from the Pistol/shotgun is NOT a formation that favors successful running.
          Since the Broncos almost exclusively use those formations virtually every run is actually a draw play.

          Until Manning gets up under center the run game will be putrid.

          Until the run game improves play action will be ignored by the defenses.

          Our SCHEME is the problem, combined with some bad o line play. Changing up the line to make the run game better, had the opposite effect of making our pass blocking worse. So now Manning is playing scared ( as he should be) .

          I don't think we can "fix" the O line this year. Instead they need to "fix " the scheme, but that isn't going to happen, either.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by ScottXray View Post
            Running the ball requires your O line to be able to open holes and the coaches to actually commit to running . This does not mean running on first down , into stacked lines. Varying the plays would be nice. You need to have some balance in play selection.

            And you also have to run from a standard nfl formation. Running from the Pistol/shotgun is NOT a formation that favors successful running.
            Since the Broncos almost exclusively use those formations virtually every run is actually a draw play.

            Until Manning gets up under center the run game will be putrid.

            Until the run game improves play action will be ignored by the defenses.

            Our SCHEME is the problem, combined with some bad o line play. Changing up the line to make the run game better, had the opposite effect of making our pass blocking worse. So now Manning is playing scared ( as he should be) .

            I don't think we can "fix" the O line this year. Instead they need to "fix " the scheme, but that isn't going to happen, either.

            Perhaps I'm dense (and its more than possible, in fact, its probable), but I don't understand why "going under center" will magically help the run game.

            I keep seeing people saying the only run play we do are draws. This is false. Draw plays are designed to draw the defenders upfield, tricking them into thinking its a pass, then handing off to what, the running back hopes, is big gaps. This isn't what we're doing.

            We are running basic run plays that just dont involve the QB under center. This should work fine against lighter fronts and has worked for Peyton in the past.

            Now, perhaps the quick handoff tips our hand too much, eliminating the thought of play-action, or perhaps our line is full of ****ty blockers, or maybe we are just not doing it enough to know if its working (like last game). Maybe its a combination of all three.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by SonOfLe-loLang View Post
              Perhaps I'm dense (and its more than possible, in fact, its probable), but I don't understand why "going under center" will magically help the run game.
              I think (and feel) playing from under center will improve our play action plays overall. We are all sick of seeing delayed hand off out of the pistol and shotgun. I have to imagine that extra space allows the LBs and DBs to see the fake more clearly as well. Especially in Zone coverage.

              Comment


              • #8
                Adam Gase has his head up his ass. Run the damn ball, commit to it and let the Oline run block for more than 9 times while pass protecting 50 times.

                He should have done this last week in a 13-7 game in the 2nd half.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by SonOfLe-loLang View Post
                  Perhaps I'm dense (and its more than possible, in fact, its probable), but I don't understand why "going under center" will magically help the run game.

                  I keep seeing people saying the only run play we do are draws. This is false. Draw plays are designed to draw the defenders upfield, tricking them into thinking its a pass, then handing off to what, the running back hopes, is big gaps. This isn't what we're doing.

                  We are running basic run plays that just dont involve the QB under center. This should work fine against lighter fronts and has worked for Peyton in the past.

                  Now, perhaps the quick handoff tips our hand too much, eliminating the thought of play-action, or perhaps our line is full of ****ty blockers, or maybe we are just not doing it enough to know if its working (like last game). Maybe its a combination of all three.

                  The reason our runs are like draws is because the back does not move towards the line and the hoped for HOLE until about 1 second after the snap.
                  They mostly are stationary about 1-2 yards to Mannings left or right.

                  Under center the back starts to move at the snap. We DON"T do that.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by CEH View Post
                    Adam Gase has his head up his ass. Run the damn ball, commit to it and let the Oline run block for more than 9 times while pass protecting 50 times.

                    He should have done this last week in a 13-7 game in the 2nd half.
                    The flip side, if he ran the ball 25 times and kept getting 2 yards a carry, we'd yell at him for not gameplanning for the Rams' dominant front.

                    Not that I don't still think Gase has his head up his ass. But I don't think you fix an inability to run the ball with extra running the ball.

                    Our only hope is for something to start clicking up front. But I'm not sure how much hope there is of that. Sounds like they're starting to feel some heat at least.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by ScottXray View Post
                      The reason our runs are like draws is because the back does not move towards the line and the hoped for HOLE until about 1 second after the snap.
                      They mostly are stationary about 1-2 yards to Mannings left or right.

                      Under center the back starts to move at the snap. We DON"T do that.
                      I dont think this is going to make as big of a difference as you seem to think. I can see it, perhaps, helping the play action. But these are quick hitting designed run plays.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Eldorado View Post
                        Get the **** out of here with your optimistic hyperbole. The only way this season can be a success is if we lose enough to get fox fired and clean house.

                        #ammiritesmegmanon?!? #highfivespiralism
                        Sorry I stand corrected. You aslo forgot the "1347 post rule" as well..... :-)

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ScottXray View Post
                          Running the ball requires your O line to be able to open holes and the coaches to actually commit to running . This does not mean running on first down , into stacked lines. Varying the plays would be nice. You need to have some balance in play selection.

                          And you also have to run from a standard nfl formation. Running from the Pistol/shotgun is NOT a formation that favors successful running.
                          Since the Broncos almost exclusively use those formations virtually every run is actually a draw play.

                          Until Manning gets up under center the run game will be putrid.

                          Until the run game improves play action will be ignored by the defenses.

                          Our SCHEME is the problem, combined with some bad o line play. Changing up the line to make the run game better, had the opposite effect of making our pass blocking worse. So now Manning is playing scared ( as he should be) .

                          I don't think we can "fix" the O line this year. Instead they need to "fix " the scheme, but that isn't going to happen, either.
                          Point is the offensive scheme we use is the same one the Colts used with Manning and theirs didn't change much between 06 and 09.

                          We have those plays in the playbook - this scheme does not depend upon a lot of shotgun, it may well be that the Broncos can stay within the same scheme but use the shotgun less.

                          I don't think the 06 Colts threw their playbook away mid-season. They did practice certain things a little harder, emphasise certain things a little more, then get more confidence and execute better.

                          However, its possible that they used the shotgun less - or rather its possible that in 09 they started using the shotgun more - I don't know. But its unlikely that that and that alone was the key, more likely it was a variety of things, big and small.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            The answer to improving our run game right now is more blockers. We have a large enough sample size to confirm two things I think: 1) the scheme works(see 2013), 2) our lineman in 2014 are simply not beating their guy. That's my opinion.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              The new line positions are all new since the Super Bowl and need the reps. Indy and Rams are right bout the same in rush defense . NE brought an extra lineman and ran behind him 32 times.

                              My thought is , just like a RB , Olineman need to run the ball to get in a rhtymin.

                              Not going to win anything throwing 50 times in a 13-7 game. That is really my issue with the STL game. A perfect game to run the ball. Who knows if they would have found success but commit to it just once especially against an emnic offense

                              Let's try to win a 17-16 game.

                              Who knows what they want to do. They may bring in Incognito after MIA.
                              He's dumb as a rock and may not be able to pick up the offense but he is a physical presence and can atleast block a guy .
                              Last edited by CEH; 11-21-2014, 10:07 AM.

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