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The Importance of Winning the Turnover Battle

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  • The Importance of Winning the Turnover Battle

    I was looking through some of the stats from the broncos season and I noticed that in each of their three losses, the Broncos lost the turnover battle as well.

    turnovers by game:
    @IND Broncos 3 Colts 1
    @NE Broncos 4 Pats 3
    SD Broncos 1 Chargers 0

    If the Broncos had even one less turnover in each of those games it's arguable that they would have won. If Holliday holds the ball in his left hand against the Colts, if Welker told Carter to get out of the way against New England, If Beadles didn't come off his block against SD and let the guy hit manning's arm.

    The Broncos have done a really good job recently at reducing the amount of turnovers (esp. fumbling). If you recall, the Broncos like doubled the yardage output of the Hawks in their preseason game but a few key fumbles by JT and Hillman killed their drives.

    Seattle is a team that thrives off of creating turnovers...they are great at causing fumbles and doing the tip drill to get picks. I don't think their defense really has much of a shot at shutting down the Broncos offense if they don't cause these types of Turnovers.

    I think Seattle has to have at least a +2 turnover margin to win this game.

  • #2
    Historically, this is a huge indicator. This has been well known for some time. Marty Scottenheimers coaching revolved around the TO disparity. And you can't argue with his results. But it's a well timed post. As stats start to get thrown around, it's good to keep an eye on the fundamentals.

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    • #3
      It is a huge deal. I have no doubt in my mind that we've had throttled the chargers and patriots because we have stayed relatively clean on this front. It will be important again. Seahawks find ways to catch balls on defense. We have to sit on the ball and don't let them get cheap possessions.

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      • #4
        I was discussing this matter with my brother the other day. Honestly, as long as our offense can avoid too many turnovers, I don't really think our defense needs turnovers for us to win. The big thing that has bugged me about our defense during the regular season was our tendency to give up big plays. After the San Diego play-off game one of our DBs admitted that they at times try to guess routes and jump them. I remember seeing it in the AFCC game when DRC went for the pick on a pass to Edelman and instead let him break it down the field for an extra ten yards. I don't want our defense out there ball-hawking. I don't think it plays to their strengths. I want them playing sound coverage, not trying to be the hero and make the huge play and just force Wilson to continuous come off of his first and second reads. If our secondary can do that, I like our chances.

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        • #5
          I agree that the team that wins the turnover battle will likely win the game, but that's easier said than done against Seattle. They led the league in takeaways (39) and takeaway/giveaway differential (+20). In 18 regular and postseason games they won the turnover battle 13 times, were even 4 times, and lost it only once. The 49ers had only 22 turnovers all season in 19 games but 9 of them were against the Seahawks.

          Should be an interesting matchup between a great Broncos offense and a defense that thrives on creating turnovers.
          Last edited by rsrobinson; 01-24-2014, 05:01 AM.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Sly_Eli View Post
            I was looking through some of the stats from the broncos season and I noticed that in each of their three losses, the Broncos lost the turnover battle as well.

            turnovers by game:
            @IND Broncos 3 Colts 1
            @NE Broncos 4 Pats 3
            SD Broncos 1 Chargers 0

            If the Broncos had even one less turnover in each of those games it's arguable that they would have won. If Holliday holds the ball in his left hand against the Colts, if Welker told Carter to get out of the way against New England, If Beadles didn't come off his block against SD and let the guy hit manning's arm.

            The Broncos have done a really good job recently at reducing the amount of turnovers (esp. fumbling). If you recall, the Broncos like doubled the yardage output of the Hawks in their preseason game but a few key fumbles by JT and Hillman killed their drives.

            Seattle is a team that thrives off of creating turnovers...they are great at causing fumbles and doing the tip drill to get picks. I don't think their defense really has much of a shot at shutting down the Broncos offense if they don't cause these types of Turnovers.

            I think Seattle has to have at least a +2 turnover margin to win this game.
            The turnover battle is a bit overrated. Here is a more complete picture:

            Baltimore, Broncos 2, Baltimore 2, won by 22
            Giants, Broncos 1, Giants 4, won by 18
            Raiders, Broncos 2, Raiders 0, won by 16
            Eagles, Broncos 0, Eagles 0, won by 32
            Cowboys, Broncos 2, Cowboys 2, won by 3
            Jaguars, Broncos 3, Jaguars 2, won by 16
            Redskins, Broncos 4, Redskins 5, won by 24
            Chargers, Broncos 1, Chargers 0, won by 8
            Chiefs, Broncos 1, Chiefs 1, won by 10
            Chiefs, Broncos 2, Chiefs 1, won by 7
            Titans, Broncos 0, Titans 2, won by 23
            Texans, Broncos 0, Texans 2, won by 24
            Raiders, Broncos 0, Raiders 1, won by 20

            playoffs:

            Chargers, Broncos 2, Chargers 0, won by 7
            Patriots, Broncos 0, Patriots 0, won by 10

            Of our 15 wins so far, 5 have come when we have won the turnover battle, and another 5 have come when we have lost, including once in the playoffs.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Sly_Eli View Post
              ....... I think Seattle has to have at least a +2 turnover margin to win this game.
              In the NFC championship game the Seahawks were a +3 in turnovers against the 49ers, and the 49ers still almost won.

              I don't see Manning making these type of mistakes, one can argue that Kaepernick lost the game for the 49ers.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by BroncoBen View Post
                In the NFC championship game the Seahawks were a +3 in turnovers against the 49ers, and the 49ers still almost won.

                I don't see Manning making these type of mistakes, one can argue that Kaepernick lost the game for the 49ers.
                He did. If it weren't for turnovers San Fran would've won going away.

                Turnovers are the great equalizer in this one. Whether or not our defense gets any it doesn't matter. But if I know our offense doesn't cough it up, or if we are even or on the plus side in regard to turnovers, I'm headed to Vegas and betting everything I'm worth on the Broncos.
                Last edited by spdirty; 01-24-2014, 07:52 AM.

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                • #9
                  I don't think the turnover ratio is overrated this game because the Seahawks have been in and won all their games with turnovers. They are third in the league in takeaway points and we are third in giveaway points. We probably would be undefeated if we had a third of those back. By the same token, the Seahawks would be a 10 win team.

                  So in this game, not turning the ball over will be a huge part of pulling away from the Seahawks. Or even better: getting turnovers of our own.

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                  • #10
                    This is the game. If we don't turn it over we win. Simple as that. The Seahawks had 39 takeaways in 16 games, which is ****ing insane. We had 28 in 16 games.

                    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake

                    They were +20 to our 0.

                    We were both 13-3.

                    Put this in perspective.

                    If we were +20 we're probably looking at an undefeated season and Peyton throwing for 60+ TD's and 6,000 yards.

                    If we say get 2 takeaways and give nothing away; we're looking at a blowout.

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                    • #11
                      Anyone know the turnover ratio for Seattle in regards to home vs. away games? Someone was telling me that Seattle's turnovers are really lopsided at HOME but I never got the numbers.

                      Where are the SeaChicken trolls? They should be good for something here.

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                      • #12
                        I know that we've secured the ball in the last several games. And our offense has been controlling every game because of it.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Bronco Yoda View Post
                          Anyone know the turnover ratio for Seattle in regards to home vs. away games? Someone was telling me that Seattle's turnovers are really lopsided at HOME but I never got the numbers.

                          Where are the SeaChicken trolls? They should be good for something here.
                          Last edited by Gutless Drunk; 01-05-2016, 11:29 AM.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Gutless Drunk View Post
                            [ATTACH]33640[/ATTACH]
                            aka.

                            It doesn't matter where they play.

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                            • #15
                              It's not the defense that drops on the road, but I've watched their offense sputter on it. Last year they were losing games on the road. This year they squeaked out wins due to their defense.

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