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Lets look at Peyton's match up options based on this year's grading.

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  • Lets look at Peyton's match up options based on this year's grading.

    Let's face it. Seattle is going to be the best defense we have faced this year. Data backs it up, the eye test backs it up, and most analysis backs it up. However, this does not mean that Manning cannot generate some favorable match ups.

    So, looking only at our receivers versus their Defensive backs, I wanted to see how various match-ups grade out based a players grading. Once again, I'm pulling my grading data from PFF for this exercise.

    Methodology. Please read this part before you comment. I didn't just pluck these results out of my ass. And some of them surprised me just as much. I calculated each player's per game average and median grade. When comparing players in a match-up the side with the higher average and median grade gets the edge. If one has a higher average and the other a higher median or vice versus, its a push. And if they tie on one while differing on the other, it is a slight edge. So, lets look at what PFF grading says about the matchups:



    Demaryius Thomas
    vs Richard Sherman Edge Denver
    vs Byron Maxwell Edge Denver
    vs Kam Chancellor Edge Denver
    vs Earl Thomas Edge Denver

    Eric Decker
    vs Richard Sherman Edge Seattle
    vs Byron Maxwell Edge Denver
    vs Kam Chancellor Edge Seattle
    vs Earl Thomas Push

    Wes Welker
    vs Richard Sherman Edge Seattle
    vs Byron Maxwell Push
    vs Kam Chancellor Slight Edge Seattle
    vs Earl Thomas Edge Seattle

    Julius Thomas
    vs Richard Sherman Push
    vs Byron Maxwell Edge Denver
    vs Kam Chancellor Push
    vs Earl Thomas Push

    In what should be a surprise to no one, Demaryius grades to be a favorable match up in single coverage no matter who Seattle sticks on him.

    The Seahawks would have to double him up before the matchup grade swung back in their favor.

    It looks like the best options for Deck are to find ways to get him isolated on Byron Maxwell. Anything else probably grades towards Seattle's favor.

    Wes Welker may need to get matched up against linebackers to do some damage. However, even if he doesn't grade as a positive matchup against a single member of the Seattle Secondary, Getting them to burn a DB to cover Welker will do wonders for opening other options for Peyton.

    Julius was a very odd surprise. He would grade as an even matchup against any member of the Legion of Boom except Maxwell who he would grade out as a Denver Edge.

    So, based solely on a quick grading, I would expect Peyton to look to who ever is match up against Maxwell and try to get Demaryius in some single coverage looks.

    Final note: For the recievers, I only considerd the passing grade, instead of their overall grade. In most cases, this actually dropped their grade as Denver's recievers grade quite well in their block. The one exception being Juilus Thomas who, lets face it, has a long way to go when it comes to blocking. For the Seattle defenders, I would use their overall grade, or their Pass coverage grade, which ever what higher. So, I can't be completely accused of being a homer. Go Broncos.
    Last edited by v2micca; 01-23-2014, 12:15 PM.

  • #2
    Nice. Any way to work your magic the other way around, with Denver's DBs and Seattle's receivers?

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    • #3
      Well, you asked. But it just isn't pretty.

      Caveat, Percy Harvin has seen so little action this year that his sample size probably isn't indicative of what we may see from him next weekend. It's really hard to get a feel of a player from just two games. Also, I'm assuming that Rahim Moore will not be seeing significant action. I just dont' see him being healthy enough.


      Doug Baldwin
      vs Champ Bailey Edge Seattle
      vs Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Edge Denver
      vs Mike Adams Edge Seattle
      vs Tony Carter Edge Seattle

      Golden Tate
      vs Champ Bailey Edge Seattle
      vs Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Edge Denver
      vs Mike Adams Edge Seattle
      vs Tony Carter Edge Seattle

      Percy Harvin
      vs Champ Bailey Edge Seattle
      vs Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Edge Denver
      vs Mike Adams Edge Seattle
      vs Tony Carter Edge Seattle

      Zack Miller
      vs Champ Bailey Push
      vs Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Edge Denver
      vs Mike Adams Push
      vs Tony Carter Edge Seattle


      Champ has been playing better lately, but his early season games really drag down both his average and median scores. Seattle's receivers aren't as good as Denver, but they are solid enough and with injuries to Moore and Harris, are capable of overmatching our depleted DB corp. We are going to need Champ to play like he is ten years younger and really get our front seven to step up this game to help cover the weaknesses in our secondary.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by v2micca View Post
        Well, you asked. But it just isn't pretty.

        Caveat, Percy Harvin has seen so little action this year that his sample size probably isn't indicative of what we may see from him next weekend. It's really hard to get a feel of a player from just two games. Also, I'm assuming that Rahim Moore will not be seeing significant action. I just dont' see him being healthy enough.


        Doug Baldwin
        vs Champ Bailey Edge Seattle
        vs Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Edge Denver
        vs Mike Adams Edge Seattle
        vs Tony Carter Edge Seattle

        Golden Tate
        vs Champ Bailey Edge Seattle
        vs Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Edge Denver
        vs Mike Adams Edge Seattle
        vs Tony Carter Edge Seattle

        Percy Harvin
        vs Champ Bailey Edge Seattle
        vs Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Edge Denver
        vs Mike Adams Edge Seattle
        vs Tony Carter Edge Seattle

        Zack Miller
        vs Champ Bailey Push
        vs Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Edge Denver
        vs Mike Adams Push
        vs Tony Carter Edge Seattle


        Champ has been playing better lately, but his early season games really drag down both his average and median scores. Seattle's receivers aren't as good as Denver, but they are solid enough and with injuries to Moore and Harris, are capable of overmatching our depleted DB corp. We are going to need Champ to play like he is ten years younger and really get our front seven to step up this game to help cover the weaknesses in our secondary.
        Yeah, that's NOT as pretty of a picture. I'm hoping for two things: Champ shows up BIG TIME and Wilson shows his inexperience and lack of decision-making when the Seahawks fall behind. If those matchup grades are accurate, we could be in for a real shootout...

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