A few thoughts from a loyal Pats fan ...

[PatsFan]

Hello to all you Bronco fans. I wanted to share a few thoughts over here on your board. It's funny because I read the posts on the PatsFan forum boards and think, 'wow, the Pats have a shot!'. Then I come over here and get depressed. Because the reality is, the Broncos are 5.5 point favorites at home.

The odds say that Denver wins this game close to 70 percent of the time. And as a loyal Pats fan, I have to agree with that. If they play this game ten times, the Broncos win 7 of them. That sounds about right to me.

And the reasons are because of matchups. All of us can talk about stats and what happened in xyz game in week 10 or 12 or whatever. What matters is who is on the field THIS game, and how do those players match up given the different schemes the coaching staffs will employ. And then lastly, and importantly, which of those players, given the match ups, rises to the occasion and makes the key plays at the key times (What I guess we all call Execution).

The matchups say that the Pats are in trouble. The Broncos defensive weakness, particularly given Harris's injury, is in the passing game. Pats offensive weakness, passing game.

Broncos offensive weakness ... umm
Pats D weakness, run D. They can stack box and solve that, but of course can't against Peyton et al.

So ... What gives a Pats fan like me any hope that this game could be one of the 3 the odds makers say we will win ...

This team has a unique ability to rise to the occasion in difficult situations. The Cleveland game down 12 w less than 3 minutes left. The New Orleans game with a TD as time runs out. Even some of their losses. The Carolina game when they march down the field against a very good defense and have a chance to win at the end (same with Dolphin loss).

And I know Bronco fans don't want to say so, but Belichick is one of the greatest game planners of all time. I believe Peyton said as much this week.

They key for the Pats will be red zone defense. Can they turn several of Denver's scoring drives into field goals instead of touchdowns.

At the end of the day, paper says Broncos win 34-27.

I say it's one of those 3 and somehow, some way, Pats scratch it out 31-27.

It hopefully will be a game for the ages and I wish all you guys a safe and enjoyable Sunday. I mean, really, what more can we ask for as fans? It doesn't get any better than this.

[Mountain Bronco]

It certainly doesn't get any better than this AFC Championship Game.

[DENVERDUI55]

Execution in the red zone and turnovers are key to the game. Whoever can score touchdowns instead of forcing FG on offense and force FGs on D will win provided they don't lose the turnover battle. I feel Denver has a little more of a margin for error but not much.

[Bronco Boy]

Belicheat is good at game planning because he contracts with the NSA to spy on other teams. It's that simple really.

[Dedhed]

Hello to all you Bronco fans. I wanted to share a few thoughts over here on your board. It's funny because I read the posts on the PatsFan forum boards and think, 'wow, the Pats have a shot!'. Then I come over here and get depressed. Because the reality is, the Broncos are 5.5 point favorites at home.

The odds say that Denver wins this game close to 70 percent of the time. And as a loyal Pats fan, I have to agree with that. If they play this game ten times, the Broncos win 7 of them. That sounds about right to me.

And the reasons are because of matchups. All of us can talk about stats and what happened in xyz game in week 10 or 12 or whatever. What matters is who is on the field THIS game, and how do those players match up given the different schemes the coaching staffs will employ. And then lastly, and importantly, which of those players, given the match ups, rises to the occasion and makes the key plays at the key times (What I guess we all call Execution).

The matchups say that the Pats are in trouble. The Broncos defensive weakness, particularly given Harris's injury, is in the passing game. Pats offensive weakness, passing game.

Broncos offensive weakness ... umm
Pats D weakness, run D. They can stack box and solve that, but of course can't against Peyton et al.

So ... What gives a Pats fan like me any hope that this game could be one of the 3 the odds makers say we will win ...

This team has a unique ability to rise to the occasion in difficult situations. The Cleveland game down 12 w less than 3 minutes left. The New Orleans game with a TD as time runs out. Even some of their losses. The Carolina game when they march down the field against a very good defense and have a chance to win at the end (same with Dolphin loss).

And I know Bronco fans don't want to say so, but Belichick is one of the greatest game planners of all time. I believe Peyton said as much this week.

They key for the Pats will be red zone defense. Can they turn several of Denver's scoring drives into field goals instead of touchdowns.

At the end of the day, paper says Broncos win 34-27.

I say it's one of those 3 and somehow, some way, Pats scratch it out 31-27.

It hopefully will be a game for the ages and I wish all you guys a safe and enjoyable Sunday. I mean, really, what more can we ask for as fans? It doesn't get any better than this.

Nice post. I have to agree that Belichick's ability to put together a game plan is my biggest concern about Sunday's game. On paper I don't think the Pats match up well anywhere. The Broncos destroyed the Pats run defense in NE, and because of the weather and the game situation the Broncos didn't even attempt to attack the Pats through the air until they were trailing in the game. When they did, they marched down the field (into 20 MPH winds) and scored a TD.

I doubt this game will be as odd as the first matchup, and if it's a cleanly played game I think think the Broncos will just overpower the Pats in all phases. I would never count the Pats out, and if the Broncos turn the ball over I can see the Pats heading to the Super Bowl.

If both sides play to their potential, I think we're looking at a Broncos win in the 34-21 range.

[ColoradoDarin]

It comes down to turnovers. We turn it over a couple of times and we lose. Period. Nobody has beaten us this year - we've done it to ourselves. We have way to much on O for the Pats to stop it (weather won't be a factor this week) and we have enough on D to let our O win it for us.

BTW, thanks for the thoughtful post. The last couple of weeks we seem to have attracted a better class of opponent posters.

Edit for prediction: 42-23 Good guys.

[Tombstone RJ]

How's Brady's shoulder?

[PatsFan]

Brady's shoulder ... Probable

I think has been for about 12 years now.

[Rabb]

Not even saying this because of the prediction...because I personally have no idea what to expect...but great first post.

[Tombstone RJ]

both teams have had a lot of injuries...

[ColoradoDarin]

I really can't wait for this game. Too bad we can't play each other for the Superbowl. Would be so epic.

[Rabb]

both teams have had a lot of injuries...

I think the one thing neither fan base can deny is, whoever makes it to the dance will have earned it in a big ass way.

Talk about 2 teams dealing with adversity this year.

[PatsFan]

Dedhed,

I agree. Won't be as odd as first game. I think that also includes Pats not fumbling 3 times in the first quarter. I really don't see the Broncos "overpowering the Pats in all phases of the game." No one has this year, including the Broncos. Those two halves I would say were equally as strange in both directions. Like I said in my original post, head says Broncos tho, heart says Pats.

[Kaylore]

I think the Patriots can win, and frankly feel they have more than a 30% chance of winning for a variety of reasons.

We've turned the ball over all year long, and lately have been unable to get any ourselves. The four teams and their respective turnover differential this year are : Seattle +20, San Francisco +12, New England +9 and Denver 0. We also just lost one of our best corners this year for the season. The combined losses of Miller, Vickerson, Moore and now Harris have got to finally manifest at some point. That they have not yet is a huge testament to this coaching staff and front office for being much deeper than I thought.

The Pats will run, but they probably will try and pass more than we think. I wouldn't be surprised to see them attack outside early the way the Chargers were able to with Allen. Brady will bring his A game. If the Patriots get some stops, Brady is protected and we are careless with the ball we will lose. I can even see the Patriots playing it this way especially if they start picking on whatever scrub is starting outside for us.

That said, there is some reason for optimism. We are playing really good defense right now. We held the best third down team in the league to their lowest total of the year. We are the only team not to allow a sack in the playoffs thus far, and Manning is playing out of his mind. We actually made a lot of mistakes last game and the Chargers got a lot of lucky breaks and we pretty much dominated them. I am hopeful that will bode well for us - especially if we just put out the hottest team in the playoffs not named the 49ers.

If we keep the pressure off Manning, play run defense like we have all year and don't turn the ball over Denver's superior talent will pull away from New England. Our linebackers on their running backs - especially in the passing game - will be a big factor. I like Trevathan and Woodyard on Vereen and Ridley. I think in some ways we match up pretty well with the Patriots - but ole' Belichick will find a way to take away what we like to do.

I think this game will be very close and I fear if it comes down to Brady having the ball at the end of the game it will be over.

[UberBroncoMan]

Agreed with turnovers.

That will decide the game.

We either shoot ourselves in the foot and lose or not because I put no faith in us causing any.