let's talk Patriots post-Gronk

[mwill07]

this is a spin-off of this thread. I wanted to do a deep dive into the 4 games post-Gronk to see what happened and get a sense of what we are looking at here.

NE 20, MIA 24

this is the game NE dropped that put us back in the #1 seed. NE's first game w/o Gronk. Also, no Dobson or Thompkins. Despite Brady missing 2 WR's and his TE, he threw for 34/55, 364, 2 TD 1 int. Here is the kind of drive that scares me Pats down by 4 late in the 4th qtr:

Tom Brady pass complete short right to Danny Amendola for 12 yards (tackle by Dannell Ellerbe)
Stevan Ridley left end for 5 yards (tackle by Jimmy Wilson)
Tom Brady pass complete short right to Julian Edelman for 13 yards (tackle by Jelani Jenkins)
Tom Brady pass complete deep middle to Austin Collie for 19 yards (tackle by Will Davis)
Tom Brady pass incomplete short middle intended for Julian Edelman
Tom Brady pass complete short middle to Julian Edelman for 24 yards, touchdown

the last series, Mia was up by 4 again and left Brady with 1:15 and 3 time-outs. He was able to drive to the 14 before he ran out of downs.

Dolphins were not a bad pass D, but Brady was able to carve them up when he needed to, he just fell short at the end of the game. Fortunately, the NE D couldn't stop Tannehill, so we've got that goin for us.

NE was 9-17 on 3rd down - not too bad, not great. MIA was 4-11, which is pretty bad. Only 1 penalty on NE. 1-4 in the red zone.

[mwill07]

NE 41 BAL 7

it's a big score that NE put up, but this was aided by 2 NE defensive TD's in the 4th whne things got away. Still, it was 27-7 by then. This is the game where NE apparently decided to become a power running team - 34 rushes, 142 yards, 2 TD's, vs Brady only throwing 26 times for 172 yards.

looking at the play-by-play, this looked to be a case of the Ravens simply being unable to complete a drive. Both teams opened with 3-outs. Pats got first TD aided by a 34 yard PI penalty on Jimmy Smith, covering Edelman. Next drive, Flacco throws a pick, next drive NE scores another TD and the boatrace was on. The big play here was a 34 yard pass to Amendola. After that, neither team did anything of note for the rest of the first.

in the second half, it was a game of field position, NE finally got another FG to put them up 20-0 at the start of the 4th and it was pretty much over by then.

simply put, Baltimore doesn't have the fire-power to come back from 17 down, and NE pretty much sat on the ball and ground them down. NE punted 4x in the 2nd half.

also, Baltimore threw three interceptions, lost a fumble, failed to convert 3 4th downs, and missed a FG.

NE's final drive, however, was a 9 play, 4:32, 48 yard drive where Brady didn't put the ball in the air once. This is concerning.

NE was 4-13 on 3rd down, which isn't very good especially for a power running football team with a great QB.

[mwill07]

NE 34 BUF 20

NE ran the ball 43 times for 267 yards and 2 TDs, vs Brady throwing it 14/24, 122, 1 TD 1 int. 4 Patriot fumbles, losing 0.

Both teams traded FG's. NE got in the end zone on a 36 yard Blount TD. An interesting stat: at the half, Brady was 10-19 for 93 yards, yet Patriots were up 16-3 (3 FGs).

in the second half, Brady threw for just 29 yards.

NE had 2 2nd half TD's: one was aided by an 83 yard KO return by Edelman, and the other was Blount ending the game with a 35 yard TD run. This seems to be a common thing for him, we need to make sure he is contained especially late.

NE again was 4-13 on 3rd down. They kicked 4 FG's in this game, which seems to be a trend. Scoring FG's instead of TD's isn't gonna get it done vs Manning. NE did not have any long, sustained, clock-killing drives in the 2nd half. Their longest drive was an 8 paly, 5 minute, 36 yard drive to open the 3rd, which resulted in a punt.

Again, this seems to be a case where Buffalo didn't have the horse power to keep up with NE. Once they had a TD and a couple of FG advantage, they sat on the ball.

[mwill07]

NE 43 IND 22

Brady threw for 13/25, 198, 0 TD 0 int, but the Pats ran 46 times for 234 yards. in this game, they had 4 drives go for 9 plays or more.

The game for off to a bad start when Luck threw an int returned to the 2. in NE's first real possession, they mixed the run and pass nicely, with Brady getting yards in chunks. drives like this are concerning:

LeGarrette Blount up the middle for 4 yards (tackle by Aubrayo Franklin)
LeGarrette Blount left tackle for 1 yard (tackle by Robert Mathis)
Tom Brady pass complete short left to Shane Vereen for 13 yards (tackle by LaRon Landry)
LeGarrette Blount right guard for 1 yard (tackle by Cory Redding and Jerrell Freeman)
Tom Brady pass complete short middle to Julian Edelman for 25 yards (tackle by Erik Walden)
LeGarrette Blount right tackle for 4 yards (tackle by LaRon Landry)
Tom Brady pass complete short left to Shane Vereen for 3 yards (tackle by Jeris Pendleton)
Tom Brady pass complete short middle to Danny Amendola for 16 yards (tackle by Josh Gordy)
LeGarrette Blount up the middle for 5 yards (tackle by Ricardo Mathews and Kelvin Sheppard)
LeGarrette Blount left tackle for 2 yards, touchdown


I thought the Colts had a chance after the safety, but then Luck threw another pick that pretty much ended the half.

pats next TD was highlighted by a beautiful play-action to Amendola for 53 yards and then a fortunate PI call got them to the 5.

NE put the game away with a 73 yard run by Blount. After that, Luck started pressing and threw another pick, NE scored another short-field TD.

NE iced it with an 11 play, 7:42, 58 yard drive featuring only tree pass attempts and two 3rd down conversions.

NE was 11-18 on 3rd down...that's what you expect to see from a power-running team with a good QB.

[mwill07]

I guess what I'm seeing here is that Edelman/Amendola are both still dangerous. Not all that scared of the NE running game, outside of Blount who seems to get stronger as the game goes on. If we can get an early lead Blount will be out of the equation. Even if it's close at the end, im confident that our run D is better than Buffalo (23rd) or Indy (25th), and I'm quite sure our offense has more than enough fire-power to keep NE from simply sitting on the ball like they seem to want to.

As long as we don't implode (like Baltimore and Indy did), we will be more than fine.

[Powderaddict]

Any team with Tom Brady is dangerous, but I believe this is Denver's game to lose.

Patriots will play well, be well coached, but I just can't see them keeping up with Denver's offense.

[Bronco Yoda]

Brady tries to spread the D out by not going vertical but by going wide lately. Tons of Screens and quick tosses out of the backfield. Since losing his Big TE's he seems to have relied on his slots to get to their position and drop for the ankle biters position catching it safely 6 inches from the turf. Not very much YAC but effective moving the chains.

Their running game seems to be mostly in-between the tackle smash mouth.

I know everyone is worried about our Safety & CB woes... and rightly so. But I think this game will hinge on our LB's. Brady will get his outside plays, but what really matters is if we can clog up his dinking and dunking within the first 5-7 yards of scrimmage.

[Tombstone RJ]

I still say that it will be up to the Broncos defense to put pressure on Brady and make him uncomfortable in the pocket. They will try and run the ball, this we know, but the Broncos just can't allow the big running plays. They can't stop Blount for a couple of short runs and then allow Blount to magically get a 30 yard run. They have to keep Blount in check and not give up those big running plays.

As for Brady, he's gonna dink and dunk like he always does. The issue is containing Vereen in the passing game. He's the go to guy that Brady loves when yards are needed. So yes, if Vereen is in the game, the ball is probably gonna be thrown to him. So the Broncos just have to play smart football.

Edelman and Amandola are gonna get their receptions, but again, I really think it's about not giving up the big plays. The Broncos have to be able to stop NE from getting the big explosive offensive plays.

[Tombstone RJ]

Field position will be huge in this game. If the Broncos win the field position battle, they will win the game. If they lose the field position battle ala turnovers or allowing big plays on the pat's offense and special teams, then the Broncos will lose.

[CHEF LUIGI]

run the ball, stop the run. old school priorities for both teams.
PFM and our receivers is our advantage. special teams is their advantage.
take care of the football, keep # 18 clean