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stoopid CHEF RUN crap , part 2

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  • Originally posted by BroncoFox View Post
    Um.. the Eagles had twice the rushing yards as Seattle and lost. By your logic, all any NFL team has to do is rush every down, and even if it's only for 1 yard a carry, since they will have the most # of runs, they will win the game - right?

    Here is reality for you: the one game where rushing -actually- won the team the game was the Titans against the Patriots. The wore out their defense, they kept Brady off the field, and it was the one game where the rushing attack was actually the difference between winning and losing. 1 out of 4 games.

    The Bills rushed far more effectively - and they lost. The Eagles also rushed far more effectively and they also lost. For anyone not trying to make some weird tinfoil hat correlation between rushing attempts (which means diddly) and winning, they would have seen that one game was decided by the rushing attack this weekend, and that's it. Teams that pull ahead early often end up with the most rushing attempts. But that doesn't mean rushing is what won the game for them. It may close out the game, but that's different. You also need to take into account that a team can take away your strength. If you are an excellent passing team, but awful at rushing, they will drop most into coverage, giving you no choice but to rush. And if you can't get success, you will probably lose. Your "study" into rushing is kind of funny, but flawed in lots of way.
    Even the Titans game could've been easily lost had the Titans' defense not completely stifled the Pats' offense in the 2nd half. Try running constantly with just a 1 point lead and see how many games you win long-term. Hint: it won't be many.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by BroncoFox View Post
      Um.. the Eagles had twice the rushing yards as Seattle and lost. By your logic, all any NFL team has to do is rush every down, and even if it's only for 1 yard a carry, since they will have the most # of runs, they will win the game - right?

      Here is reality for you: the one game where rushing -actually- won the team the game was the Titans against the Patriots. The wore out their defense, they kept Brady off the field, and it was the one game where the rushing attack was actually the difference between winning and losing. 1 out of 4 games.

      The Bills rushed far more effectively - and they lost. The Eagles also rushed far more effectively and they also lost. For anyone not trying to make some weird tinfoil hat correlation between rushing attempts (which means diddly) and winning, they would have seen that one game was decided by the rushing attack this weekend, and that's it. Teams that pull ahead early often end up with the most rushing attempts. But that doesn't mean rushing is what won the game for them. It may close out the game, but that's different. You also need to take into account that a team can take away your strength. If you are an excellent passing team, but awful at rushing, they will drop most into coverage, giving you no choice but to rush. And if you can't get success, you will probably lose. Your "study" into rushing is kind of funny, but flawed in lots of way.
      I love the way you glossed over the bills/ texans game !
      Bills outrushed the texans in the first half, double their run attempts, and took a commanding first half lead.
      The texans only ran the ball 8 times in the first half had 4 sacks and TURNOVERS in the PASSING game !

      Behind to start the second half, the TEXANS did not pass to catch-up,instead they outrushed the bills in the second half, 25-14 and won the game . never have I mentioned YARDS so to bring it up is to make false claims against my premise.
      Maybe its all just coincidence that always seems to be 100% right in the play-offs or maybe it is the GHOST of LOMBARDI protecting his trophy ?
      no matter reality sucks for the chef haters because when you run you win and so far there has not been one single contest that was not a product of an integral run game from both teams...
      that's how they got here derp durp de derp !

      Comment


      • I love the way you glossed over the bills/ texans game !
        Bills outrushed the texans in the first half, double their run attempts, and took a commanding first half lead.
        Go look at the play by play for the first half (I just did), and tell me again how rushing was the reason they scored 1 TD and 2 FGs in the first half. Because.. it wasn't the reason. Aside from 1 good run by a RB, the only run of significance was the 42 yard scramble by Allen. And as they found out, a running game based on your QB scrambling is not the formula for a SB winning team. The Bills were NOT dominant in the first half rushing. On their first TD drive, aside from the Allen scamper, there were TWO rushes for 6 yards, that's it. The drive started on a pass play, and the TD was a pass play. Both scoring drives in the first half had more pass plays than rushing plays.

        And YARDS matter.. not # of carries, where in the world did you dig up that silly idea, that # of attempts is more important than actual success? In fact, the most important stat is actually probably yards per carry. That is the real indicator of how successful your running game is. Going by that stat, the Bills averaged 5.7 yards a carry, vs. 4.3 for the Texans. So they rushed for more yards, and more yards per carry - they WERE the more effective rushing team. And they still lost the game.

        Comment


        • the effectivness of a run play is NOT just an accounting of YARDS ! yards per carry is meaningless in a 60 minute football game if you only run the ball 6 times but get 10 yards a carry.
          the run game wears down the defensive front, it controls the clock and it makes the passing game more effective as well ! I specificly put # of carries as the decisive element because that is what it is !
          not scoring, not averages, not total yards, but just the sheer will to do it well and do it EARLY and OFTEN !
          had the bills not gone all pass happy in the second half they would have won the second half, just like they won the first half by RUNNING THE BALL !
          the TEXANS avoided conventional wisdom of passing to get back into the game,instead they ran 3 times as much as they did in the first half, they outrushed the bills by 11 carries in the second half, and they won the game because they did NOT stop running so they could pass and catch up !
          sacks, strip sacks, interceptions, incompletions that net NOTHING and just get your QB HIT, these are components of the run game that are not measured by yards per carry or total rushing yards.
          A run play that goes for 75 yards and a TD is great, but it has no more effect than a 75 yard pass, in terms of time of posession.
          POSSSESION , control the ball and the clock, it's not about yardage !

          FIRST DOWNS when is somebody going to bring those up ! I hate the fact that it is nearly impossible to get an accounting of first downs, by who and how many !
          there is the story of the game and the NFL and broadcasters seem oblivious to making those numbers more public and available,

          Comment


          • As brought up before you can't get a lot of attempts without picking up yards and first downs. For all the dominating the Vikings did in the first half last week they were down 10 to 6 with 5 min to go before half. They couldn't run in the second half yet they won.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by CHEF LUIGI View Post
              FIRST DOWNS when is somebody going to bring those up ! I hate the fact that it is nearly impossible to get an accounting of first downs, by who and how many !
              there is the story of the game and the NFL and broadcasters seem oblivious to making those numbers more public and available,
              I didn't bring it up because it's one of the many variables that I've been trying to tell you about that make rushing attempts a poor choice of decisive stat.

              They're not at all impossible to find; it took me only about 10 minutes to find all of the first down statistics for each of last year's playoff games and the latest 4.

              In all 11 games last year the winning team had at least as many first downs, but usually more, than the losing team. In the latest 4, only the Bills and Eagles had more first downs and lost. However, the Eagles were 0-3 in the red zone, which easily explains that discrepancy, and the Texans had 2 more possessions than the Bills and were in comeback mode the second half so a lot of their drives were chewing up yards rather than first downs.

              A team needs first downs in order to run the ball more than their opponent, and this is what is infuriating about your over simplification of "RUN MOST WIN". More than anything, you need to keep possession of the ball. Having more rushing attempts than your opponent is a symptom of an effective offense that is consistently making first downs. It's not the reason for the win, the effective offense is.



              Comment


              • This may be the stupidest thread in OM history...

                Comment


                • Originally posted by DENVERDUI55 View Post
                  As brought up before you can't get a lot of attempts without picking up yards and first downs. For all the dominating the Vikings did in the first half last week they were down 10 to 6 with 5 min to go before half. They couldn't run in the second half yet they won.
                  vikings ran the ball consistently thru out the game. They also did not suffer any turnovers in the PASSING game.
                  the #1 dispute against my theory is that teams get ahead early, via the PASS and then late in the game only use the RUN as a form of KEEP-AWAY to protect the lead that came from the far more valuable passing attack.
                  In the 4 games we have seen so far, NONE of those games followed that script !
                  What we did see is 8 teams each utilize their run game from start to finish, we saw close games with close results, two freakin OT games !
                  Great PASSING games, exciting pass plays,
                  TWO teams that each ran 40 times en route to their victories, one against a prolific offensive duo of coach and QB, this year top of the heap on offense as well !
                  But the defense against the run when matched with the ability and DEDICATION to the run,
                  dedication defined not by YARDS, but by ATTEMPTS.
                  THOSE teams are the ones that advanced and this week-end will coincidentally be exactly the same.
                  I find it amusing so many of you feel the need to contradict the philosophy of the man whose name is on the trophy that everyone covets.
                  RUN TO WIN.
                  Chapter one: run early and often.

                  Comment


                  • 2017 AFC Championship.

                    https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=400999172

                    2017 NFC Wild Card Game

                    https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=400999177

                    Now how can that be? Chef law says this is impossible.

                    2016 Divisional Round.

                    https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=400927749

                    2015 AFC Divisional Game.

                    https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=400820432

                    Queefs had double the amount of rushing attempts in that game, and lost. Plus they were wayyyyyyyy more effective at running it.

                    2015 NFC Divisional Game.

                    https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=400820433


                    Get the point yet?
                    Last edited by GreatBronco16; 01-07-2020, 09:11 AM.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by broncosjf View Post
                      I didn't bring it up because it's one of the many variables that I've been trying to tell you about that make rushing attempts a poor choice of decisive stat.

                      They're not at all impossible to find; it took me only about 10 minutes to find all of the first down statistics for each of last year's playoff games and the latest 4.

                      In all 11 games last year the winning team had at least as many first downs, but usually more, than the losing team. In the latest 4, only the Bills and Eagles had more first downs and lost. However, the Eagles were 0-3 in the red zone, which easily explains that discrepancy, and the Texans had 2 more possessions than the Bills and were in comeback mode the second half so a lot of their drives were chewing up yards rather than first downs.

                      A team needs first downs in order to run the ball more than their opponent, and this is what is infuriating about your over simplification of "RUN MOST WIN". More than anything, you need to keep possession of the ball. Having more rushing attempts than your opponent is a symptom of an effective offense that is consistently making first downs. It's not the reason for the win, the effective offense is.


                      I appreciate your post and your effort to obtain first down info.
                      Did you not read me comparing a 75 yard run to a pass in terms of it's lack of time of posession effect ?
                      It explains why the run games EFFECT is more than yards !
                      Posession is the GOAL, first downs are an essential component.

                      These are the best teams in the NFL, and after the first shake down, the teams that run the ball the best and DEFEND the run,
                      Those are the teams that will be advancing.
                      AND...
                      if weather is a factor, just as LOMBARDI said, even more reason for the outcome to be influenced by the run commitment.
                      GREEN BAY this week-end ?
                      most rush attempts will definatly favor the winning team.

                      9ers vikes ?
                      I favor the 9ers with kittle healthy. he is the most dynamic TE in the game, the success of that offense depends on KITTLE , both run and pass !
                      But if the vikes can run 40 times again, they might upset my apple cart 2 weeks in a row !
                      and kyle is a shanahan, I can see him throwing the game away using garrapalo's arm.
                      BOBBY TURNER might be able to keep the 9ers in run mode .

                      AFC match-ups won't be any different, exciting games, exciting QBs all with great mobility
                      NEW ERA QUARTERBACKS !
                      tremendous passing attacks and star receivers scattered like confetti across every field this week-end !
                      Yet, somehow, the run game will tag along in each contest and somehow, miraculously, amidst all this passing excellence the team that runs the most will win.
                      it is so damn aggravating.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Agamemnon View Post
                        This may be the stupidest thread in OM history...
                        It's up there, but it's no Memphis Belle.

                        Comment


                        • Bill walsh developed his "west coast offense" because he had a crap O line and could not run the ball or protect for long pass plays to develop.
                          So the quick release, short pass routes, designed to replace the run game was born.
                          It took the best of air coryell and added the component of short passes designed to move the chains and make first downs,
                          the SHORTCOMING of the pass attack,
                          personified by the FOUTS san diego CHARGERS.

                          I bring this up to explain why the run game is so vital, beyond just the yards or even the scoring plays.
                          It is about being able to impose your will, late in the game, when strength, conditioning and WILL have as much to do as TALENT and ATHLETICISM.
                          That is why the run game is such a vital component in time management and keep away, time of possession !
                          Our first SB win ?
                          the packers let TD run the ball in for a quick TD because they wanted to POSSESS the ball.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by GreatBronco16 View Post
                            2017 AFC Championship.

                            https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=400999172

                            2017 NFC Wild Card Game

                            https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=400999177

                            Now how can that be? Chef law says this is impossible.

                            2016 Divisional Round.

                            https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=400927749

                            2015 AFC Divisional Game.

                            https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=400820432

                            Queefs had double the amount of rushing attempts in that game, and lost. Plus they were wayyyyyyyy more effective at running it.

                            2015 NFC Divisional Game.

                            https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=400820433


                            Get the point yet?
                            Not to mention several of the Pats SBs. Titans completely ran over the Pats and easily could have lost 16 to 14. You wont win a whole lot only scoring 14 points on Offense.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by CHEF LUIGI View Post
                              Bill walsh developed his "west coast offense" because he had a crap O line and could not run the ball or protect for long pass plays to develop.
                              So the quick release, short pass routes, designed to replace the run game was born.
                              It took the best of air coryell and added the component of short passes designed to move the chains and make first downs,
                              the SHORTCOMING of the pass attack,
                              personified by the FOUTS san diego CHARGERS.

                              I bring this up to explain why the run game is so vital, beyond just the yards or even the scoring plays.
                              It is about being able to impose your will, late in the game, when strength, conditioning and WILL have as much to do as TALENT and ATHLETICISM.
                              That is why the run game is such a vital component in time management and keep away, time of possession !
                              Our first SB win ?
                              the packers let TD run the ball in for a quick TD because they wanted to POSSESS the ball.
                              Fouts was not a great QB for one.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by DENVERDUI55 View Post

                                Fouts was not a great QB for one.
                                a boat load of 300 yard games ! tough as nails ! knocked down , old school style 35 times a game !
                                No run game his achillies heal

                                Comment

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