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First 16 Games QB Evaluation

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  • First 16 Games QB Evaluation

    Sitting here bored at work....and seeing alot of the discussion here about Lock and his development etc....i was wondering how many games do you really need to see before you get a good idea of who the player is.

    so what I did was started looking at the first 16 STARTS of a QB's career and then compared that to their career averages to see how much deviation there was from those first 16 games to what they produced/became over a career.

    MOST of the guys I looked at...it was remarkable who little deviation there was from the averages of the 1st 16 games, to the averages for the whole of their careers. Joe Flacco for example...you can take his rookie year, and those stats don't deviate much at all from his career averages...he was who he was going to be after 16 games. There were a lot of guys I looked at who had similar showings.....Vinny Testaverde, Chad Pennington, Boomer Esiason, Don Majkowski....and many many more....just didn't deviate all that much from the guy they were in their first 16 games. Another of interest to you folks would be Jay Cutler....his first 16 starts, were damn near spot on what his career averages ended up being. Pretty much the same for Jake Plummer as well.

    Most guys tended to improve their Yards Per Game by 30-40 yards over their rookie years....the INT pct surprisingly, for many, went up overall, as they progressed. The Completion PCT didn't vary a whole lot....typically about a 3% incresase over the first 16 games compared to the whole of the career.

    Some guys that were drastic outliers...Tom Brady...INT pct went way down, YPG went way up. Elways completion pct improved only modestly, but he was throwing for many more yards per game later on in his career. Alex Smith might be the biggest improvement from 16 games in, to whole career that I looked at....he was absolute trash 16 games in....if he hadn't been a 1/1, his career would have, and should have ended a very very long time ago....but his later career stats really pick way up....took him a long time to blossom into something decent I guess. Peyton Manning is another one whose first 16 wern't very good..but he improved accross the board substantially after that..His second set of 16 games was much closer to what his career averages would be, with the exception of completion PCT. Manning really got ALOT more accurate as time went on.

    A few guys got progressively worse from their 16 starts onward.....Rick Mirer one of the better known QB's who came in hot, and then flamed out. People might mis remember Dan Marino a bit....his rookie year was 83, when he started 9 games and was quite good....it was 84 that he had his big record breaker year...so the first 5 games of that, along with is rookie year....Marino was mostly on his career averages when compared to his first 16 games overall. Matt Cassel was another one I looked at....his career trajectory...DOWNWARD....was interesting because his first 15 starts were with the Randy Moss patriots...the team that had gone undefeated in the regular season the year before. Cassel went 11-5 with that group and had decent numbers....never to be repeated. Bubby Brister actually was a little better to start than he ended up being over the course of his career....never posting good numbers..they just got worse over time.

    While there are exceptions both where guys show out better than their first 16 and some show out worse....A TON of dudes....are who their first 16 starts say they are.

  • #2
    You are really worried that Lock is going to become a franchise qb. I like it.

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    • #3
      The fear is strong in this one...

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      • #4
        **** off. Your trolling is getting old

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        • #5


          So basically you are trying to make us all think Lock is a new Brister because you fear Mahomes is a new Matt Cassel? 'Cause that's what looks like from here...

          Mahomes numbers are down from his first 16 starts. And according to KC Trolls he has better supporting cast than last year. So I guess, you are kinda wrong and using kinda right numbers to say so?

          Allow me to help correct you a bit and teach you to think like a champion. Mahomes is a good QB. You should be on your teams page and have backbone or join us and have a spine plus 11 Trophies.
          ​​​​​​
          We know we won already. We have accomplishment in our pocket and one of your True Sons as our QBOTF.

          Broncos will be back to a threat soon, and though we all can see; Thank you for sharing that you are afraid because you see that big brother is waking up and about to stand up again. (^_-)

          Now guard those graves whilst you slang your methamphetamemes... And leave us be with only your memory Trailer Homie.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Old Coyote View Post

            So basically you are trying to make us all think Lock is a new Brister because you fear Mahomes is a new Matt Cassel? 'Cause that's what looks like from here...

            Mahomes numbers are down from his first 16 starts. And according to KC Trolls he has better supporting cast than last year. So I guess, you are kinda wrong and using kinda right numbers to say so?

            Allow me to help correct you a bit and teach you to think like a champion. Mahomes is a good QB. You should be on your teams page and have backbone or join us and have a spine plus 11 Trophies.
            ​​​​​​
            We know we won already. We have accomplishment in our pocket and one of your True Sons as our QBOTF.

            Broncos will be back to a threat soon, and though we all can see; Thank you for sharing that you are afraid because you see that big brother is waking up and about to stand up again. (^_-)

            Now guard those graves whilst you slang your methamphetamemes... And leave us be with only your memory Trailer Homie.
            And I'll bet you the chargers dràft Herbert, and he's going to breathe new life into a talented team. The west is rising again! Better hope they get it done this year because times are changing!

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            • #7
              Originally posted by AlaskaMagnum View Post

              And I'll bet you the chargers dràft Herbert, and he's going to breathe new life into a talented team. The west is rising again! Better hope they get it done this year because times are changing!
              Reid owns all of you. He consistently makes you look foolish.

              Allow me to infuse a little logic here. The Broncos (and/or Chargers and Raiders) improving a little bit doesn't matter if KC is also improving.

              Even if KC doesn't get it done this year (admittedly, coming out of Baltimore victorious won't be easy), they know exactly which holes need to be filled. They'll come back next year armed with a running game, stronger interior blocking, a little more defensive help, and they will dominate.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by RockyMountainOyster View Post

                Reid owns all of you. He consistently makes you look foolish.

                Allow me to infuse a little logic here. The Broncos (and/or Chargers and Raiders) improving a little bit doesn't matter if KC is also improving.

                Even if KC doesn't get it done this year (admittedly, coming out of Baltimore victorious won't be easy), they know exactly which holes need to be filled. They'll come back next year armed with a running game, stronger interior blocking, a little more defensive help, and they will dominate.
                So...the same holes as last year? Yep, sound logic.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Steve Prefontaine View Post

                  So...the same holes as last year? Yep, sound logic.
                  Not even close.

                  Last year, they needed sweeping changes on defense and the defensive coaching staff. They also had a stronger running game and interior line last year, even after losing Hunt.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by RockyMountainOyster View Post

                    Reid owns all of you. He consistently makes you look foolish.

                    Allow me to infuse a little logic here. The Broncos (and/or Chargers and Raiders) improving a little bit doesn't matter if KC is also improving.

                    Even if KC doesn't get it done this year (admittedly, coming out of Baltimore victorious won't be easy), they know exactly which holes need to be filled. They'll come back next year armed with a running game, stronger interior blocking, a little more defensive help, and they will dominate.
                    Attached Files

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by RockyMountainOyster View Post

                      Reid owns all of you. He consistently makes you look foolish.

                      Allow me to infuse a little logic here. The Broncos (and/or Chargers and Raiders) improving a little bit doesn't matter if KC is also improving.

                      Even if KC doesn't get it done this year (admittedly, coming out of Baltimore victorious won't be easy), they know exactly which holes need to be filled. They'll come back next year armed with a running game, stronger interior blocking, a little more defensive help, and they will dominate.
                      It’s always about next year when it comes to the Chiefs and their fans. When your at the level the Chiefs are at now you’re far more likely to get worse or stay the same than get better. In other words you’re lying to yourself. Win it this year or shut the **** up.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by RockyMountainOyster View Post

                        Not even close.

                        Last year, they needed sweeping changes on defense and the defensive coaching staff. They also had a stronger running game and interior line last year, even after losing Hunt.
                        Lol. Riiiiiiight.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Agamemnon View Post

                          It’s always about next year when it comes to the Chiefs and their fans. When your at the level the Chiefs are at now you’re far more likely to get worse or stay the same than get better. In other words you’re lying to yourself. Win it this year or shut the **** up.
                          I have high hopes for this season and I think they can get it done. But "expecting" to go into Baltimore and beat a team that grades out as one of the best in decades would be delusional. You told me not to be delusional, remember?

                          You're basically saying the Chiefs can't improve. Appreciate the high compliment, but that's not true. Their run game and interior line can be a lot better and they can still bolster a few areas of the D. They can also improve record-wise just by having a healthier season (odds are in their favor there) and position themselves to have HFA.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Steve Prefontaine View Post

                            Lol. Riiiiiiight.
                            What are you disagreeing with?

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                            • #15
                              Let's assume this analysis is valid - personally I think there's something to it. If you can't show something early, chances of turning the corner are slim.

                              That being said, we need a larger sample size. We are only 1/4 the way into the 16 game the OP wanted. Still, we can look at rate metrics, understanding the book is far from written..

                              Locks passer rating is 89.4. that would put him at roughly 16th QB - NFL average starting QB. He has thrown for 210 YPG, which would be good for 27th. Not great. He has been sacked 2.3% of dropbacks - that would actually lead the league. Also 2.3% interception rate: would be ~27th. 4.7% TD rate would be 13th. 3 wins in 4 games - that would rate to 12-4 record, there are 6 or 7 QBs on that pace this year.

                              What we've seen so far is that Lock has shown he can be NFL average starting QB. With our defense and running game, that's enough to make us contenders.

                              It will be really interesting to see if he can improve on that in the next 12 games. Given Lock has limited reps as the #1 thus far, but he and will be entering camp next year as the #1, I think it's fair to extrapolate that into a top 10 QB. Of course, a lot will depend on surrounding talent: we need another WR and help on the line. It's also possible he regresses and it's possible he stays NFL average statistically while actually being a better QB as Fangio leads the broncos into a run-first team.

                              Personally, I don't think Lock will be a better QB than Mahomes, but he will be good enough for us to win.

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