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  • QBs and passes of 20+ yards

    As many of you know, ESPN has a neat feature in their Next Gen Stats called QB grids. Here you can see Quarterbacks' passing attempts displayed on a field, allowing you to see the air distance and result(complete, incomplete, TD, INT) of the passes.

    Here is the link: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/qb-grid

    It has been my belief the last few years that much of our offensive woes come from lacking a QB that could challenge the secondary deep. When a defense isn't as concerned about a QB completing passes over the top, they can cheat forward; they can cover the short stuff better, react to the run sooner, and gang tackle better thus limiting YAC.


    I decided to check out the Next Gen Stats to see if the stats backed up my hunch. Unfortunately, they don't compile all of the statistics very well. So, if you want any meaningful sample size, you have to punch some numbers yourself. Over the last few days, I did just that.

    The statistics go back to 2016, but not every game of that year is included. I tallied the stats from every game the QBs below had listed on the site.

    Here are the numbers for some familiar faces:

    Keenum
    24 games -- 1.3 completions of 20+ yards and 3.9 attempts per game -- 29 yards per game on average coming from 20+ yard throws
    Overall, on 20+ hard throws he was 32/94 -- 34% completion for 6 td 11 int -- 704 yards -- 7.5 YPA -- 43.35 passer rating

    Osweiler
    10 games -- 0.9/3.0 per game -- 24.9 yards per game -- 9/30 -- 3 TDs 4 INTs -- 30% -- 249 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 55.42 passer rating

    Siemien
    12 games -- 1.25/3.9 per game -- 32 yards per game -- 15/47 -- 5 TDs 5 int -- 32% -- 391 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 59.22 passer rating

    Dang. So Keenum was the worst we've had in a while at 20+ yard throws according to passer rating. Not surprising, but I still wanted more context. How bad was this group compared to other QBs in the league?

    I checked out the numbers for several other QBs, some I thought would be bad and some I thought would be good. Here is how our prior QBs stacked up, sorted by passer rating from worst to best.

    Keenum
    24 games -- 1.3 of 3.9 per game -- 29 yards per game -- totals of 32/94 -- 6 td 11 int -- 34% -- 704 yards -- 7.5 YPA -- 43.35 passer rating

    Osweiler
    10 games -- 0.9/3.0 per game -- 24.9 yards per game -- 9/30 -- 3 TDs 4 INTs -- 30% -- 249 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 55.42 passer rating

    Siemien
    12 games -- 1.25/3.9 per game -- 32 yards per game -- 15/47 -- 5 TDs 5 int -- 32% -- 391 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 59.22 passer rating

    McCown
    12 games -- 1.25/3.6 -- 36.8 yards per game -- 15/45 -- 4 TDs 5 INT - 31% -- 442 yards -- 9.8 YPA -- 60.83 passer rating

    Winston
    26 games -- 1.4/4.1 per game -- 38 yards a game
    37/107 -- 17 TDs 13 INTs -- 34% -- 1001 yards -- 9.3 YPA -- 69.88 passer rating

    Bortles
    23 games -- 1.1/3.8 per game -- 31.6 YPG -- 27/87 -- 6 TDs 3 INT -- 31% -- 728 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 71.43 passer rating

    Eli Manning
    32 games -- 1.2/3.8 per game -- 36.7 YPG --
    41/123 -- 13 TDs 9 INT -- 33% -- 1175 yards -- 9.5 YPA -- 74.41 passer rating

    Brady
    34 games -- 1.2/3.6 -- 32.8 YPG-- 42/124 -- 10 TDs 5 INTs -- 34 % -- 1116 yards -- 9.0 YPA -- 77.89 passer rating

    Fitzpatrick
    10 games -- 1.7/5.6 per game -- 46.5 YPG
    17/56 -- 6 TDs 2 INT -- 30% -- 465 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 82.81 passer rating

    Carr
    26 games -- 1.4/3.6 per game -- 39.5 YPG
    37/94 -- 12 TD 8 INT -- 39% -- 1009 yards -- 10.7 YPA -- 83.73 passer rating

    Mariota
    25 games -- 1.2/3.5 per game -- 34 yards a game -- 32/88 -- 10 TDs 5 INT -- 36% -- 865 yards -- 9.8 YPA 87.55 passer rating

    Stafford
    32 games -- 1.4/3.6 per game -- 39 yards a game-- 46/115 -- 15 TD 6 INT -- 40% -- 1266 yards -- 11.0 YPA -- 99.13 passer rating

    Dalton
    25 games -- 1/3 per game -- 29 yards a game
    26/76 -- 9 TDs 2 INT -- 34% -- 738 yards --
    9.7 YPA -- 99.56 passer rating

    Big Ben
    29 games -- 1.9/5.1 per game -- 55 yards per game-- 55/150 -- 36% -- 1599 yards -- 10.6 YPA -- 99.97 passer rating

    Cousins
    27 games -- 1.7/4.3 per game -- 47 yards a game
    46/117 -- 18 TD 4 INT -- 39% -- 1267 yards --
    10.9 YPA --105.31 passer rating

    Russell Wilson
    29 games -- 2.4/4.9 per game -- 71 yards a game
    70/143 -- 18 TD 5 INT -- 49% -- 2082 yards -- 14.5 YPA -- 119.97 passer rating



    Alrighty then. So we have had some of the worst deep throwing QBs in the league the last few years. That has been a major factor in our offense struggling. Maybe not the most significant factor, but still significant in it's own right.

    To give myself some optimism, I looked up Flacco. One of his strong suits is the deep ball, right? I remember some time 10 years ago or so he led the league in deep passes. Hopefully he can help open things up for us. However, that was 24-26 year old Flacco. How has 31-34 year old Flacco been? Age tends hurt mobility and deep balls in QBs...

    Flacco
    36 games -- 0.8 completions per game 3.1 attempts per game -- 24 yards per game
    30/114 total -- 10 td 11 int total -- 28% completion -- 868 total yards -- 7.6 YPA -- 48.46 passer rating

    So, what do we think about that?

  • #2
    Originally posted by Papa-pwn View Post
    As many of you know, ESPN has a neat feature in their Next Gen Stats called QB grids. Here you can see Quarterbacks' passing attempts displayed on a field, allowing you to see the air distance and result(complete, incomplete, TD, INT) of the passes.

    Here is the link: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/qb-grid

    It has been my belief the last few years that much of our offensive woes come from lacking a QB that could challenge the secondary deep. When a defense isn't as concerned about a QB completing passes over the top, they can cheat forward; they can cover the short stuff better, react to the run sooner, and gang tackle better thus limiting YAC.


    I decided to check out the Next Gen Stats to see if the stats backed up my hunch. Unfortunately, they don't compile all of the statistics very well. So, if you want any meaningful sample size, you have to punch some numbers yourself. Over the last few days, I did just that.

    The statistics go back to 2016, but not every game of that year is included. I tallied the stats from every game the QBs below had listed on the site.

    Here are the numbers for some familiar faces:

    Keenum
    24 games -- 1.3 completions of 20+ yards and 3.9 attempts per game -- 29 yards per game on average coming from 20+ yard throws
    Overall, on 20+ hard throws he was 32/94 -- 34% completion for 6 td 11 int -- 704 yards -- 7.5 YPA -- 43.35 passer rating

    Osweiler
    10 games -- 0.9/3.0 per game -- 24.9 yards per game -- 9/30 -- 3 TDs 4 INTs -- 30% -- 249 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 55.42 passer rating

    Siemien
    12 games -- 1.25/3.9 per game -- 32 yards per game -- 15/47 -- 5 TDs 5 int -- 32% -- 391 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 59.22 passer rating

    Dang. So Keenum was the worst we've had in a while at 20+ yard throws according to passer rating. Not surprising, but I still wanted more context. How bad was this group compared to other QBs in the league?

    I checked out the numbers for several other QBs, some I thought would be bad and some I thought would be good. Here is how our prior QBs stacked up, sorted by passer rating from worst to best.

    Keenum
    24 games -- 1.3 of 3.9 per game -- 29 yards per game -- totals of 32/94 -- 6 td 11 int -- 34% -- 704 yards -- 7.5 YPA -- 43.35 passer rating

    Osweiler
    10 games -- 0.9/3.0 per game -- 24.9 yards per game -- 9/30 -- 3 TDs 4 INTs -- 30% -- 249 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 55.42 passer rating

    Siemien
    12 games -- 1.25/3.9 per game -- 32 yards per game -- 15/47 -- 5 TDs 5 int -- 32% -- 391 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 59.22 passer rating

    McCown
    12 games -- 1.25/3.6 -- 36.8 yards per game -- 15/45 -- 4 TDs 5 INT - 31% -- 442 yards -- 9.8 YPA -- 60.83 passer rating

    Winston
    26 games -- 1.4/4.1 per game -- 38 yards a game
    37/107 -- 17 TDs 13 INTs -- 34% -- 1001 yards -- 9.3 YPA -- 69.88 passer rating

    Bortles
    23 games -- 1.1/3.8 per game -- 31.6 YPG -- 27/87 -- 6 TDs 3 INT -- 31% -- 728 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 71.43 passer rating

    Eli Manning
    32 games -- 1.2/3.8 per game -- 36.7 YPG --
    41/123 -- 13 TDs 9 INT -- 33% -- 1175 yards -- 9.5 YPA -- 74.41 passer rating

    Brady
    34 games -- 1.2/3.6 -- 32.8 YPG-- 42/124 -- 10 TDs 5 INTs -- 34 % -- 1116 yards -- 9.0 YPA -- 77.89 passer rating

    Fitzpatrick
    10 games -- 1.7/5.6 per game -- 46.5 YPG
    17/56 -- 6 TDs 2 INT -- 30% -- 465 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 82.81 passer rating

    Carr
    26 games -- 1.4/3.6 per game -- 39.5 YPG
    37/94 -- 12 TD 8 INT -- 39% -- 1009 yards -- 10.7 YPA -- 83.73 passer rating

    Mariota
    25 games -- 1.2/3.5 per game -- 34 yards a game -- 32/88 -- 10 TDs 5 INT -- 36% -- 865 yards -- 9.8 YPA 87.55 passer rating

    Stafford
    32 games -- 1.4/3.6 per game -- 39 yards a game-- 46/115 -- 15 TD 6 INT -- 40% -- 1266 yards -- 11.0 YPA -- 99.13 passer rating

    Dalton
    25 games -- 1/3 per game -- 29 yards a game
    26/76 -- 9 TDs 2 INT -- 34% -- 738 yards --
    9.7 YPA -- 99.56 passer rating

    Big Ben
    29 games -- 1.9/5.1 per game -- 55 yards per game-- 55/150 -- 36% -- 1599 yards -- 10.6 YPA -- 99.97 passer rating

    Cousins
    27 games -- 1.7/4.3 per game -- 47 yards a game
    46/117 -- 18 TD 4 INT -- 39% -- 1267 yards --
    10.9 YPA --105.31 passer rating

    Russell Wilson
    29 games -- 2.4/4.9 per game -- 71 yards a game
    70/143 -- 18 TD 5 INT -- 49% -- 2082 yards -- 14.5 YPA -- 119.97 passer rating



    Alrighty then. So we have had some of the worst deep throwing QBs in the league the last few years. That has been a major factor in our offense struggling. Maybe not the most significant factor, but still significant in it's own right.

    To give myself some optimism, I looked up Flacco. One of his strong suits is the deep ball, right? I remember some time 10 years ago or so he led the league in deep passes. Hopefully he can help open things up for us. However, that was 24-26 year old Flacco. How has 31-34 year old Flacco been? Age tends hurt mobility and deep balls in QBs...

    Flacco
    36 games -- 0.8 completions per game 3.1 attempts per game -- 24 yards per game
    30/114 total -- 10 td 11 int total -- 28% completion -- 868 total yards -- 7.6 YPA -- 48.46 passer rating

    So, what do we think about that?
    ....why did you leave out Mahomes?

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Zerovoltz View Post

      ....why did you leave out Mahomes?
      You know why

      Comment


      • #4
        Obviously not exciting to see JF near the bottom.

        Then again, seems like the kind of stat that banks on receivers more than most.

        Comment


        • #5
          It doesn't matter cause Bolles will be called for holding

          Comment


          • #6
            I think the realist fans know Flaccid is a bottom tier QB in the above stats.

            Comment


            • #7
              I seriously have no idea where to get this data, but my question is this - what were Flaccos deep ball stats in the 2014-15 season (when he was running the Kubiak/Shanny offense). That would be my expectation for this offense. If they don't reach that, its likely on Munchak and Scangarello.

              Comment


              • #8
                First, good job on compiling this list.

                Second, ****ing Flacco.

                Third, no shocker, all of the Broncos QBs post-Manning have sucked.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by DENVERDUI55 View Post
                  I think the realist fans know Flaccid is a bottom tier QB in the above stats.
                  Realistic fans think Flacco is better than Keenum, just not by much.

                  Realistic fans know we are waiting to see if Drew Lock has it and is OBOTF or not, so far I like what I've seen.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Interesting analysis. what role do wide receivers play?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by orinjkrush View Post
                      Interesting analysis. what role do wide receivers play?
                      I know some of those bad QBs had good WRs. Brock especially with Houston. Bortles too. Keenum Siemian has decent ones too.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I've never seen Tom Brady complete or attempt such a pass.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by itswutz4dinna View Post
                          I've never seen Tom Brady complete or attempt such a pass.
                          He did when he had Moss. But I lack of data (only two years) kinda hurts analysis. Full rep for Papa-pwn for the attempt to bring data to the discussion, but the team offense concept are also in play with the data.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Flacco’s the least of my worries

                            If Denver has a running game this year,
                            flacco will hit plenty of passes over 20 yards
                            the whole offense is predicted on a solid running game.

                            If if they have zero success running the ball, this offense will sputter.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by CEH View Post
                              Flacco’s the least of my worries
                              the whole offense is predicted on a solid running game.
                              I see this as a fundamental problem with the Shanahan offense. Obviously it's important for any offense to run the ball successfully. But our offense is especially weak when the running game struggles. If the backs are going nowhere or your defense is having a bad day, can your passing game carry the weight? This offense always seems to fail when Plan A doesn't work.

                              Comment

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