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AFC contender stats through 12 games.

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  • AFC contender stats through 12 games.

    We're at the final four game stretch of the season. There are no more BYE weeks. The film is out and there is very little to hide with scheme. The stats are going to give a decent picture of what teams are.

    Let's look at some:

    Broncos 10-2
    Total offense: 1st
    Points: 1st
    Passing: 1st
    Rushing: 13th
    Give/Take: -4 (bottom third of the league)

    Total Defense: 27th
    Points: 26th
    Passing: 29th
    Rushing: 7th

    Two ways to look at this. One is the defense is bad. We give up a lot of points and a lot of passing yards. Losing Elvis Dumervil for the season and the injuries and suspension of Von Miller really did a number on our defense. I also think that we are 10-2 with a -4 turnover ratio speaks to some of this - but not all. Yes, teams have to pass more on us to keep up. Yes, we've had some turnovers. But at the end of the day, we are what we are. I think if we can get that number in the teens - especially the scoring part, we can be good enough to win a championship. But until then, don't hold your breath.

    Chiefs
    Total offense: 16th
    Points: 9th
    Passing: 24th
    Rushing: 11th
    Give/Take: +14 (league best. Next closest in conference is New England at +8)

    Total Defense: 21st
    Points: 4th
    Passing: 21st
    Rushing: 21st

    How the mighty have fallen. The Chiefs are a wild card team and may only win 1 or 2 more games. I fully expect their final games to even out as they continue to play starting QB's. They have given up 30+ points the last several games. Their special teams and defense has continued to help them inflate what is still a mediocre offense with little talent. The Chiefs are who we thought they were. Their record is indicative of facing bad teams and their turnover margin - remember they were barely beating many of those teams at home.

    Patriots

    Total offense: 9th
    Points: 6th
    Passing: 10th
    Rushing: 12th
    Give/Take: +8 (2nd best in AFC)

    Total Defense: 20th
    Points: 10th
    Passing: 10th
    Rushing: 31st

    The Patriots were all set up to be one of the most balanced teams going into the playoffs. Then their injuries on defense really set them back. They can't stop the run and have been outscored in the first half of the last few games by 50 points. Still, they are a big threat and are balanced enough to do damage and go all the way in a very weak AFC.

    Bengals

    Total offense: 12th
    Points: 12th
    Passing: 11th
    Rushing: 18th
    Give/Take: +1

    Total Defense: 6th
    Points: 5th
    Passing: 8th
    Rushing: 8th

    The Bengals losing Atkins was a huge blow - similar to the Patriots losing <s>Wilfork</s> Cottonspork. They do have all the elements to win their division, though with a two game lead and four games to play. They are a very underrated team.

    Colts

    Total offense: 20th
    Points: 12th
    Passing: 14th
    Rushing: 20th
    Give/Take: +6

    Total Defense: 22nd
    Points: 12th
    Passing: 17th
    Rushing: 28th

    If there's one team that isn't looking so hot it is the Colts. Andrew Luck has leveled off quite a bit. And while still a good player, he hasn't taken the step that other elites do in their second year (Manning, Brady, and even Russel Wilson). Obviously losing Reggie Wayne was a huge part of that. But so was trading for a recently benched Trent Richardson. Still, the Ravens looked similar last year and got hot at the right time. They can beat anyone, but they can also lose to anyone and look like they have lost some of their mojo.

    Seahawks

    Total offense: 11th
    Points: 2nd
    Passing: 22nd
    Rushing: 3rd
    Give/Take: +12

    Total Defense: 1st
    Points: 2nd
    Passing: 1st
    Rushing: 13th

    I wanted to throw this out there for comparison. The Seahawks are a total juggernaut. Everything is pretty much where you want it. And don't be fooled by Wilson's meager passing yardage. They run the ball a lot because they have a lead and Wilson himself will take off at a moment's notice. He's like a rich man's Jake Plummer. And like Plummer his teammates love him. If we make it to the Super Bowl, it is probably going to be the Seahawks. The only thing that gives me hope is their issues in the secondary and they'll have to play on a neutral field.

    I could have put up numbers for the Panthers and Saints as well, but I wanted to focus on probably AFC opponents we will see in the playoffs.

    We can get where we need to, but some things need to improve. We need to play better pass defense. DRC coming back will make a HUGE difference. Also we need to really work on turnovers. We've been trying all year but it just isn't happening. If we can get those things up, we have a decent shot to go all the way. Especially if we have home field.
    Last edited by Kaylore; 12-03-2013, 11:08 AM.

  • #2
    Denver needs 3 things to win it: A) Manning on his game and B) give up yards but not points defensive play and lastly C) turnovers.

    If Manning is playing out of his mind, he can overcome B and C. But I wouldn't expect that level of play going forward.

    Seattle is the team best equipped to handle us, if both teams get that far.

    I think a cold SB against a red hot Seahawks team would be very difficult to overcome.

    Comment


    • #3
      Just wanted to put out this little stat. We've given up 317 points on the season. Over 100 of those points have been off of turnovers.

      If we don't turn the ball over we will win.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by snowspot66 View Post
        Just wanted to put out this little stat. We've given up 317 points on the season. Over 100 of those points have been off of turnovers.

        If we don't turn the ball over we will win.
        Sweet Baby Jebus.

        I knew it was bad, but come on.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by snowspot66 View Post
          Just wanted to put out this little stat. We've given up 317 points on the season. Over 100 of those points have been off of turnovers.

          If we don't turn the ball over we will win.
          I totally agree. Unfortunately we've turned the ball over all year long. It's who we are at this point. I hope we can just keep the number down a bit during the playoffs.

          Comment


          • #6
            Our Points allowed are at least slightly skewed due to defensive/special teams TD's and those turnovers you mentioned. Denver has given up 10+ points in several games due to turnovers and special teams. Those are far and away the weakness of the team....less so the defense.

            Comment


            • #7
              Out of curiosity, whats the broncos D average starting FP this year? It seems we give up a lot of turnovers in our own territory. Like even last week, looking at the box score, you'd assume 28 pts is a lot to give up. But then when you realize 7 were on a kickoff return and another 7 on a very short field, it doesnt look as bad.

              Comment


              • #8
                KC dropping passes left and right made them look better too as well though.
                Alex Smith was actually on target on almost every throw.

                At least we didn't fumble. Maybe it is the start of a trend.

                Comment


                • #9
                  The AFC really does seem wide open. Hopefully its the Broncos with the hot hand this year.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Seahawks are just better than everybody. Don't think anyone will beat them.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I made a bet after week 3 that the Broncos would end up with a top 20 ranked defense, when Denver was ranked 27th or 28th. It was looking pretty good once Von returned......until halftime of the Pats game. We need a healthy DRC and Co. to have any chance at it.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        The Seahawk stats look similar to the Broncos' last season. Everything pointed toward the Broncos and they had a fairly healthy team going into the playoffs. And they screwed it up. Ugh.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by KCStud View Post
                          Seahawks are just better than everybody. Don't think anyone will beat them.
                          Eh, any given sunday. Though they'll be hard to beat at home. On the road they are a diff team.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Kaylore View Post
                            We're at the final four game stretch of the season. There are no more BYE weeks. The film is out and there is very little to hide with scheme. The stats are going to give a decent picture of what teams are.

                            Let's look at some:

                            Broncos 10-2
                            Total offense: 1st
                            Points: 1st
                            Passing: 1st
                            Rushing: 13th
                            Give/Take: -4 (bottom third of the league)

                            Total Defense: 27th
                            Points: 26th
                            Passing: 29th
                            Rushing: 7th

                            Two ways to look at this. One is the defense is bad. We give up a lot of points and a lot of passing yards. Losing Elvis Dumervil for the season and the injuries and suspension of Von Miller really did a number on our defense. I also think that we are 10-2 with a -4 turnover ratio speaks to some of this - but not all. Yes, teams have to pass more on us to keep up. Yes, we've had some turnovers. But at the end of the day, we are what we are. I think if we can get that number in the teens - especially the scoring part, we can be good enough to win a championship. But until then, don't hold your breath.

                            .
                            ugh...before the kc game they were 26th in points and yardage. Unfortunately our best defense is our offense

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Man-Goblin View Post
                              The Seahawk stats look similar to the Broncos' last season. Everything pointed toward the Broncos and they had a fairly healthy team going into the playoffs. And they screwed it up. Ugh.
                              And that's the thing. You either get to play the Seahawks or the team that beat the Seahawks in their house - on a neutral field. And the SB is in New York, so it may be frigid cold.

                              Obviously these are problems we want to have. We'll have to get there first. All of the playoff teams are dangerous. If I had my druthers I'd like to get the Colts here and then have Cincy knock off the Patriots and come here. We'll have to see how it shakes out.

                              Comment

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