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Manning in the cold myth

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  • Manning in the cold myth

    http://www.milehighreport.com/2013/1...r-myth-or-fact

    So he's terrible in cold weather right?

    Not exactly. In Peyton Manning's last 8 games under these weather conditions, he had a streak of 7 straight games where he completed at least 70% of his passes. In fact, here are his numbers through those 8 games:

    177-243 (72.8%), 2129 yards (8.8), 17/10, 105.5 QB Rating
    2012 stats I dug up for games played under 35 degrees:

    Brady: 2 played. 1 win, 1 loss. 2 TD, 3 INT. 52.15 QBR.
    Manning: 2 played. 1 win, 1 loss. 6 TD, 2 INT. 77.5 QBR.

    I'd happily look into this further if I had the time, but feel free to search for yourself, pro-football-reference.com includes the weather.
    Last edited by Blart; 11-24-2013, 11:43 PM.

  • #2
    I know what I see, and it's not that.

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    • #3
      Other then the interception, wasn't really upset with Peyton's performance. Were running the ball very well, and with the wind being what it was, they did what was working.

      I don't think Peyton lost the game for us, but he didn't exactly win the game either.

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      • #4
        What conditions exactly? 40 degrees isn't a problem. It's when it gets seriously cold (as in sub-freezing temps) that he sucks. I mean against the Ravens in the playoffs he didn't purely suck but he was greatly diminished as a passer and could not push the ball down the field at all.

        He also has so little velocity on his throws at this point in his career that wind completely screws him.

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        • #5
          The reality is that PFM lost a string of playoff games in NE in January when he was with the colts. People chalked it up to the cold, and the myth was born.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Agamemnon View Post
            What conditions exactly? 40 degrees isn't a problem. It's when it gets seriously cold (as in sub-freezing temps) that he sucks. I mean against the Ravens in the playoffs he didn't purely suck but he was greatly diminished as a passer and could not push the ball down the field at all.

            He also has so little velocity on his throws at this point in his career that wind completely screws him.
            How do Manning's stats below 32 degrees compare to other QB's in below 32 degree weather?

            Nobody knows, they just go with the myth.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Blart View Post
              How do Manning's stats below 32 degrees compare to other QB's in below 32 degree weather?

              Nobody knows, they just go with the myth.
              I know that I've never seen him play at his usual GOAT level in seriously cold temperatures. I also know that other QBs never look nearly as diminished in the cold as he does. Just look at Brady tonight and Flacco in the playoffs.

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              • #8
                Myth plausible at the very least, he's certainly not at weeks 1-5 level in bad conditions anyways. The guy has nerve damage. You better believe freezing weather affects that.

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                • #9
                  You can throw all the stats you want at it but Peyton clearly doesn't pass the eye test. Romo has great 4Q stats but we all know he's a giant fail when the game is on the line.

                  I have serious doubts in Peyton's ability and leadership to take this team to the promised land. In a game like that last night a real "winner" steps up, takes charge, and leads his team to victory (al la Tom Brady). You saw Tom take his team down the field for three Tds in 1Q, into the wind, with inferior weapons. Peyton did bubkiss last night but throw picks, make terrible lame duck throws, not move in the pocket, and call crap plays.

                  Sorry but his greatness is clearly overstated and for anyone to put him in the same league as Brady, Elway, Montana is blasphemy!

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Blart View Post
                    http://www.milehighreport.com/2013/1...r-myth-or-fact

                    2012 stats I dug up for games played under 35 degrees:

                    Brady: 2 played. 1 win, 1 loss. 2 TD, 3 INT. 52.15 QBR.
                    Manning: 2 played. 1 win, 1 loss. 6 TD, 2 INT. 77.5 QBR.

                    I'd happily look into this further if I had the time, but feel free to search for yourself, pro-football-reference.com includes the weather.
                    I wish you were right about this, but I have a feeling you are not.

                    1. The data presented looks at Mannings entire career. I don't think that's appropriate, as the running narrative is that his nerve damage weakens the grip on the ball in colder weather, which is a relatively recent phenomenon. What Manning did in 2001 bears little significance to where he is today. Really, the only data points to consider are against a 2-14 team that had already given up and the losses to Baltimore and NE.

                    2. the eye-ball test - How many times yesterday did Manning throw the ball deep? How many nice, tight spirals did he push through the wind, 20 yards downfield? I can recall one stick throw - the TD to Tamme, and that was only 10, maybe 15 yards.

                    Here's the deal (IMO): Mannings nerve issue is worse in the cold. He doesn't throw tight spirals in ideal conditions, that only gets worse in the cold. add wind and hurt ankles, and Manning is unable to push the ball down-field. When the defense knows they don't have to worry about being beat deep, they can cheat up and compress the field. It's as if the entire field is "red-zone". Granted - Manning is still very good in a compressed field, but it's much tougher when you can't take the top off of the defense.

                    I had my doubts about the whole "Manning-cold-weather" meme, but now I'm a believer. At this point, there is nothing to do but hope for warm weather, a home-field advantage so Manning can audible in peace, and a coaching staff that gets their head out of their asses and sprinkles some damn play-action into a run-heavy offense.

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                    • #11
                      It is such a myth that Belichick chose to give Manning the ball and the first crack at a touchdown. He thought the cold wind was more of a factor than the threat of Manning making a touchdown throw.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by rmsanger View Post
                        You saw Tom take his team down the field for three Tds in 1Q, into the wind, with inferior weapons.
                        Peyton should have stopped them from scoring 34 points in the 2nd half. At the very least, he shouldn't have let the ball hit Carter's leg in overtime. Peyton sucks.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by rmsanger View Post
                          You can throw all the stats you want at it but Peyton clearly doesn't pass the eye test. Romo has great 4Q stats but we all know he's a giant fail when the game is on the line.

                          I have serious doubts in Peyton's ability and leadership to take this team to the promised land. In a game like that last night a real "winner" steps up, takes charge, and leads his team to victory (al la Tom Brady). You saw Tom take his team down the field for three Tds in 1Q, into the wind, with inferior weapons. Peyton did bubkiss last night but throw picks, make terrible lame duck throws, not move in the pocket, and call crap plays.

                          Sorry but his greatness is clearly overstated and for anyone to put him in the same league as Brady, Elway, Montana is blasphemy!
                          Gronk played like a beast last night. DT, Welker and Decker did not. Tamme was the only one who made clutch catches. Tom's WRs are diminished, but Gronk was better than our aggregate.

                          Both Tom and Peyton struggled with the long ball into the wind. Same with both teams' kickers into the wind.

                          Peyton threw one pick, not picks.

                          I agree that Peyton's not moving in the pocket was an issue. I told my wife it would be great to have some designed boot legs for Peyton, if he could pull them off. Right after that Collinsworth mentioned how he doesn't do boot legs.

                          Peyton didn't lose this game, but he didn't do anything to win it either. He actually looked like the slightly better QB in the 4th and in OT.

                          Our turnovers killed us, as they have hurt us all year. We don't turn it over those three times, they don't rally back into the game like they did. Mental mistakes and coaching also hurt. Thanks Trindon and Carter!

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                          • #14
                            the receivers were obviously thrown off too. DT, Decker, and Welker looked like they wanted nothing to do with catching the ball. There were some particularly bad drops by DT and Welker.

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                            • #15
                              There is no doubt in my mind that cold weather affects Manning negatively post neck surgery. We know that there has been nerve regeneration, and the damaged nerves are affected by the cold. The effect of which is severe pain during cold weather.

                              Like Mwill said above, there is a difference between how Manning has played in the cold before and now. Now he has nerve damage. Using stats to back a position means nothing if a material fact has changed.

                              He has nerve damage. It probably hurts like hell in the cold. He is not the same in the cold. This is obvious people, your eyes are not lying to you!

                              He sucked it up big time during that last drive and made some incredible throws considering the pain that he was probably enduring to tie the game. It was incredible and shows how great of a leader he is.

                              But the fact remains. He is not the same quarterback in the cold.

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