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Breaking down the Patriots with stats

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  • Breaking down the Patriots with stats

    Looking at some number going into this game Facing the Patriots.

    As always, I look at scoring defense and turnovers when speaking of team defense and am not using yardage.

    New England is ranked 7th at 19.9 points per game. However, prior to Vince <s>Wilfork</s> Woolfork's injury they were averaging 14.25, in the five subsequent games they have averaged 23.6, which puts them middle of the pack.

    The Patriots are good team against the pass ranking 12th in yards per game. That said, they have allowed 17 Passing TD's, which puts them middle of the pack. They are ranked sixth in sacks at 32. Denver has 28 and that puts them in the teens. The Broncos have actually just allowed one more passing TD than the Patriots at 18.

    Against the run the Patriots are not as good ranking 27th in rushing yards allowed per game. The Broncos are ranked fourth. Those that would argue that is a result of us always getting ahead are wrong because our leads have mostly come late, and our yards per attempt is 5th best in the NFL at 3.7. The Patriots are 24th at 4.3 (and the Chiefs are fourth worst at 4.7).

    On offense the Patriots are a bit more anemic than you're used to seeing. Brady has 14 TD's to 7 interceptions - almost 2 and 1/2 times fewer the number Manning has thrown this season. More surprising is New England is ranked 24th in yards per pass at 6.7 (by the way Alex Smith now officially has the worst yards per pass average of the entire NFL at 6.) Brady's average has come up steadily since Amendola and Gronk have come back from injury.

    Their rushing attack is their bread and butter. New England is top ten in yards per attempt and total yards. They are also fifth in rushing TD's at 11. Interestingly, Denver has the third most rushing TD's at 13 despite ranking 20th in total rushing yardage and 28th in yards per attempt.

    Special teams the Patriots haven't allowed a TD all year and are top fifteen in fewest return yards per kick and punt allowed. Denver has the number one kick return average and top ten in punt return yardage.

    Both teams have missed one field goal all year.

    New England is +7 in turnover margin which makes them second best in the AFC and sixth best in the NFL.

    The Patriots convert their third downs at 37% and surprisingly their opponents are much higher at 42.7%. Denver converts 48% of their third downs and 100% of their fourth downs. Opponents convert third downs against the Broncos (surprise) 37% of the time.

    Bill Belichick (all stats are with the Patriots only) is 36-16 coming off a loss. He has lost back to back games the past two years in a row. On a short week Belichick is 16-10. Almost all those losses were at home, strangely.

    Someone told me Bill Belichick has only lost back to back road games once. I went back and looked and it's total horse crap. More interesting is his record coming off a short week. What I didn't show you is his record in games straddling a short week. Most of his loses come in the first or second game of a short week. My suspicion is they put more time into our game than they did the Panthers, but who knows.

    We can run and pass on the Patriots. Their defense was much better before ole' Cottonspoon got hurt. But Brady likes to play his best on SNF and will want to match with Manning. Manning wants this game bad too, though and he's only lost four times in his career on SNF. If Manning is good enough to snap Reid's post-bye streak, we can beat the Patriots on a short week.

    This game will come down to performance on both sides of the ball in the redzone, and stopping the Patriots rushing attack. If we can do that and watch our turnovers, we can win this game.

  • #2
    Gotta stop the run. Last few games the pats owned us because their able to seal the edge and run all over us. Last year we gave up over 200 yards of rushing against them. Cant let that happen again

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    • #3
      Their entire DB corps are now corpses.

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      • #4
        49-38 Broncos

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        • #5
          Strip the Pats RB has to be priority. Ridley especially is proneprone to fumbles.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by ColoradoDarin View Post
            Their entire DB corps are now corpses.
            And Mediator was saying that Talib may be suspended? I would love to see that but seriously doubt it.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Kaylore View Post
              And Mediator was saying that Talib may be suspended? I would love to see that but seriously doubt it.
              Won't matter. Talib rehurt his hip and probably won't play against us anyway.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Beantown Bronco View Post
                Won't matter. Talib rehurt his hip and probably won't play against us anyway.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Kaylore View Post
                  We can run and pass on the Patriots.
                  In theory, yes. But we've had some mediocre rushing production against some fairly poor run defenses. I think we'll do it via the pass as ususal, especially since their DB situation is so shaky.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by TonyR View Post
                    In theory, yes. But we've had some mediocre rushing production against some fairly poor run defenses. I think we'll do it via the pass as ususal, especially since their DB situation is so shaky.
                    Obviously. Even against the Chiefs, who are very strong against the pass and very poor against the run, we elected to stay true to what we were and it paid off. I have no doubt that will continue. But when we run the ball, we can be prolific relative to the number of times we try.

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                    • #11
                      Denver must slow or preferably stop Gronk. He's their big play-maker. Take away their big plays and Denver wins.

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                      • #12
                        Source: Alfonzo Dennard not expected to play against Broncos, maybe longer

                        Cornerback Alfonzo Dennard's knee injury is going to keep him out a while longer.

                        Dennard is not expected to play Sunday against the Broncos, and it might be even longer than that, according to a source. The timing of the injury is difficult, as the Broncos rank first in points, total yards, passing yards and passing touchdowns.

                        Dennard's knee originally appeared on the injury report last week, and he missed Saturday's practice -- his first regular-season absence in 2013 -- and was immediately ruled out of the Panthers game.

                        The Patriots are already hurting in the secondary. Cornerback Aqib Talib missed three games with a hip injury and missed the end of last night's game after aggravating the ailment. Cornerback Kyle Arrington also missed time last night because of the groin injury that has lingered throughout the season. Safety Steve Gregory is out for an undetermined amount of time with a broken thumb.

                        http://bostonherald.com/sports/patri...gainst_broncos

                        If Talib's re-aggravation keeps him out they could be missing their two starting corners and starting safety.
                        Last edited by Gutless Drunk; 11-19-2013, 01:26 PM.

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                        • #13
                          Frankly, I was more worried about the Chiefs than I am about the Pats. The Chiefs brought the "unknown" to the table. This season, the Pats have been having trouble with teams that in years past, they would have simply bulldozed. The Pats offense is certainly better than the Chiefs', but still not in the top ten.

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                          • #14
                            The Boston Herald reports Patriots CB Alfonzo Dennard (knee) is expected to miss Week 12, and is without a timetable for a return.
                            It's bad news for a Patriots team that will be hosting Peyton Manning and the Broncos on Sunday, and also dealing with injuries to Aqib Talib (hip) and Kyle Arrington (groin). Dennard injured his knee in practice last week, but the Pats have predictably provided few details. He's likely dealing with an MCL issue of some sort.

                            http://www.rotoworld.com/playernews/nfl/football/

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                            • #15
                              Daaaaaaaamn.

                              Pats secondary is looking like Swiss cheese right about now.

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