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Looking at some number going into this game Facing the Patriots.
As always, I look at scoring defense and turnovers when speaking of team defense and am not using yardage.
New England is ranked 7th at 19.9 points per game. However, prior to Vince <s>Wilfork</s> Woolfork's injury they were averaging 14.25, in the five subsequent games they have averaged 23.6, which puts them middle of the pack.
The Patriots are good team against the pass ranking 12th in yards per game. That said, they have allowed 17 Passing TD's, which puts them middle of the pack. They are ranked sixth in sacks at 32. Denver has 28 and that puts them in the teens. The Broncos have actually just allowed one more passing TD than the Patriots at 18.
Against the run the Patriots are not as good ranking 27th in rushing yards allowed per game. The Broncos are ranked fourth. Those that would argue that is a result of us always getting ahead are wrong because our leads have mostly come late, and our yards per attempt is 5th best in the NFL at 3.7. The Patriots are 24th at 4.3 (and the Chiefs are fourth worst at 4.7).
On offense the Patriots are a bit more anemic than you're used to seeing. Brady has 14 TD's to 7 interceptions - almost 2 and 1/2 times fewer the number Manning has thrown this season. More surprising is New England is ranked 24th in yards per pass at 6.7 (by the way Alex Smith now officially has the worst yards per pass average of the entire NFL at 6.) Brady's average has come up steadily since Amendola and Gronk have come back from injury.
Their rushing attack is their bread and butter. New England is top ten in yards per attempt and total yards. They are also fifth in rushing TD's at 11. Interestingly, Denver has the third most rushing TD's at 13 despite ranking 20th in total rushing yardage and 28th in yards per attempt.
Special teams the Patriots haven't allowed a TD all year and are top fifteen in fewest return yards per kick and punt allowed. Denver has the number one kick return average and top ten in punt return yardage.
Both teams have missed one field goal all year.
New England is +7 in turnover margin which makes them second best in the AFC and sixth best in the NFL.
The Patriots convert their third downs at 37% and surprisingly their opponents are much higher at 42.7%. Denver converts 48% of their third downs and 100% of their fourth downs. Opponents convert third downs against the Broncos (surprise) 37% of the time.
Bill Belichick (all stats are with the Patriots only) is 36-16 coming off a loss. He has lost back to back games the past two years in a row. On a short week Belichick is 16-10. Almost all those losses were at home, strangely.
Someone told me Bill Belichick has only lost back to back road games once. I went back and looked and it's total horse crap. More interesting is his record coming off a short week. What I didn't show you is his record in games straddling a short week. Most of his loses come in the first or second game of a short week. My suspicion is they put more time into our game than they did the Panthers, but who knows.
We can run and pass on the Patriots. Their defense was much better before ole' Cottonspoon got hurt. But Brady likes to play his best on SNF and will want to match with Manning. Manning wants this game bad too, though and he's only lost four times in his career on SNF. If Manning is good enough to snap Reid's post-bye streak, we can beat the Patriots on a short week.
This game will come down to performance on both sides of the ball in the redzone, and stopping the Patriots rushing attack. If we can do that and watch our turnovers, we can win this game.
As always, I look at scoring defense and turnovers when speaking of team defense and am not using yardage.
New England is ranked 7th at 19.9 points per game. However, prior to Vince <s>Wilfork</s> Woolfork's injury they were averaging 14.25, in the five subsequent games they have averaged 23.6, which puts them middle of the pack.
The Patriots are good team against the pass ranking 12th in yards per game. That said, they have allowed 17 Passing TD's, which puts them middle of the pack. They are ranked sixth in sacks at 32. Denver has 28 and that puts them in the teens. The Broncos have actually just allowed one more passing TD than the Patriots at 18.
Against the run the Patriots are not as good ranking 27th in rushing yards allowed per game. The Broncos are ranked fourth. Those that would argue that is a result of us always getting ahead are wrong because our leads have mostly come late, and our yards per attempt is 5th best in the NFL at 3.7. The Patriots are 24th at 4.3 (and the Chiefs are fourth worst at 4.7).
On offense the Patriots are a bit more anemic than you're used to seeing. Brady has 14 TD's to 7 interceptions - almost 2 and 1/2 times fewer the number Manning has thrown this season. More surprising is New England is ranked 24th in yards per pass at 6.7 (by the way Alex Smith now officially has the worst yards per pass average of the entire NFL at 6.) Brady's average has come up steadily since Amendola and Gronk have come back from injury.
Their rushing attack is their bread and butter. New England is top ten in yards per attempt and total yards. They are also fifth in rushing TD's at 11. Interestingly, Denver has the third most rushing TD's at 13 despite ranking 20th in total rushing yardage and 28th in yards per attempt.
Special teams the Patriots haven't allowed a TD all year and are top fifteen in fewest return yards per kick and punt allowed. Denver has the number one kick return average and top ten in punt return yardage.
Both teams have missed one field goal all year.
New England is +7 in turnover margin which makes them second best in the AFC and sixth best in the NFL.
The Patriots convert their third downs at 37% and surprisingly their opponents are much higher at 42.7%. Denver converts 48% of their third downs and 100% of their fourth downs. Opponents convert third downs against the Broncos (surprise) 37% of the time.
Bill Belichick (all stats are with the Patriots only) is 36-16 coming off a loss. He has lost back to back games the past two years in a row. On a short week Belichick is 16-10. Almost all those losses were at home, strangely.
Someone told me Bill Belichick has only lost back to back road games once. I went back and looked and it's total horse crap. More interesting is his record coming off a short week. What I didn't show you is his record in games straddling a short week. Most of his loses come in the first or second game of a short week. My suspicion is they put more time into our game than they did the Panthers, but who knows.
We can run and pass on the Patriots. Their defense was much better before ole' Cottonspoon got hurt. But Brady likes to play his best on SNF and will want to match with Manning. Manning wants this game bad too, though and he's only lost four times in his career on SNF. If Manning is good enough to snap Reid's post-bye streak, we can beat the Patriots on a short week.
This game will come down to performance on both sides of the ball in the redzone, and stopping the Patriots rushing attack. If we can do that and watch our turnovers, we can win this game.
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