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  • Betting Week 5

    This was a really good article on Yahoo if you can believe that?

    Denver Broncos (4-0, 1-0 road) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2, 2-0 home)

    When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
    Open: Denver -6
    Current: Denver -7.5



    Peyton Manning and the Broncos are a perfect 4-0 against the spread this season.

    Analysis: Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos have become the Oregon Ducks of the National Football League, meaning whatever number bookmakers decide to hang for the initial release will immediately be bet northward. The Broncos have been shredding the opposition this season, winning by the astronomical average of 22.0 points per game. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys look like the same team we’ve grown accustomed to watching over the last five years, looking sharp at times and wildly mediocre at others. Take note that the Cowboys are 8-21 ATS over their last 29 games when surrendering more than 350 total yards in the previous contest. A simple way to approach this game: Do you really want to get in front of the Peyton Manning train?

    Trends: Denver is 6-1 ATS over their last seven road games while Dallas is 3-10 ATS over their last 13 home games.


    For the rest of the games click here: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/week-5-...1889--nfl.html

  • #2
    If I was a betting man I would jump all over that Jacksonville/St. Louis game. No way the Rams should be favored by 12 points.

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    • #3
      I Am really really really tempted to bet a healthy amount on the Broncos (-8.5) this week. We're like the greatest show on turf and '07 Pats when it comes to the spread this year.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Guess Who View Post
        If I was a betting man I would jump all over that Jacksonville/St. Louis game. No way the Rams should be favored by 12 points.
        I would not bet on the Jags to cover anything this year.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by spdirty View Post
          I Am really really really tempted to bet a healthy amount on the Broncos (-8.5) this week. We're like the greatest show on turf and '07 Pats when it comes to the spread this year.
          It will be interesting to see what the Denver/Jacksonville line is. It opened up at 26 points!!!

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Guess Who View Post
            If I was a betting man I would jump all over that Jacksonville/St. Louis game. No way the Rams should be favored by 12 points.
            have you watched jacksonville? they should be damn near double digit underdogs every week.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Guess Who View Post
              If I was a betting man I would jump all over that Jacksonville/St. Louis game. No way the Rams should be favored by 12 points.
              Didn't you just start a thread called "Betting Week 5"?

              Jags have yet to cover all year. I'm not saying they won't, but I'm not going to touch this game.

              My favorite bets are Denver -7 and Denver/Dallas Over 56, and I (unfortunately) have yet to bet on a Broncos game this year.

              BTW here are the current spreads and my brief thoughts:

              BUF @ CLE -4: Cleveland just had an impressive win over CIN and BUF over BAL. I think Cleveland wins, but I try not to bet on inconsistent new QBs (Manuel and Hoyer), especially on a Thursday night game with little preparation. Betting the UNDER (currently at 40.5) on Thursday night games has been free money so far, though. Offenses just can't prepare in 2 days.

              NO @ CHI PK: New Orleans just punked Miami and Chicago lost against the Lions, so I want to pick NO off the top of my head. But, Chicago has looked impressive in its wins. This game relies on the arm of Jay Cutler, and I'm not willing to put money for/against it. The OVER 48.5 looks pretty good, though. The Bears are averaging 32 ppg and the Saints are averaging 27 ppg.

              NE @ CIN PK: No idea. Cincinnati seems very inconsistent, and I have little faith in the Patriots. No bet here.

              DET @ GB -7: I think GB wins AT HOME after a BYE, but the Lions aren't bad and I'm not confident GB wins by 7. I generally only bet underdogs if I think they will win. The OVER 54 looks nice for two teams averaging over 30 ppg.

              KC @ TEN +3: Taking KC at -3 looks nice with Locker injured.

              SEA @ IND +3: At the beginning of the season I would have taken SEA in a heartbeat (I thought the Colts were bad), but the Colts have been surprisingly good so far. Not going to play this one, but I would take Indy as the home underdogs if I did.

              JAX @ STL -11.5: Two teams that suck. I would lean towards JAX covering the spread, but they have yet to do so.

              BAL @ MIA -3: Again, I think MIA is the better team and will win, but Baltimore's convincing win against Houston is prohibiting me from betting this (and again I don't bet the underdog unless I think they will win).

              PHI @ NYG -1: I like Philly for this bet, but it's generally dumb to bet an away team in a division game. I think the NYG are a terrible team, and Philly is getting dogged after getting drubbed by Peyton and Co., but division game.

              CAR @ ARZ +2: Carolina probably puts a whipping on Arizona after Carolina had two weeks to prepare, but I haven't followed either team very well this season.

              DEN @ DAL 8.5: I got Denver at -7. The line has already moved to -8.5 and I bet it still moves to -9.5 or -10 by gametime. I also got the Over 56.

              HOU @ SF -7: Kap puts on two very poor showings then lays it on the Rams and people expect that SF is now as good as they originally thought? Schaub won't continue throwing pick 6's every game. Houston had a player's only meeting on Monday to get their **** together. Not playing this game, but I would take Houston if did.

              SD @ OAK +4: Hard to take an away team in a divisional game, but Rivers is quietly lighting up his opponents. I took SD -4.

              NYJ @ ATL -10: Don't care.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by bfoflcommish View Post
                have you watched jacksonville? they should be damn near double digit underdogs every week.
                Yeah, but I have seen the Rams play as well. The Rams cannot score. They might not score 20 points. If the Jags score 10 they cover the spread.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by SeedReaver View Post
                  Didn't you just start a thread called "Betting Week 5"?

                  Jags have yet to cover all year. I'm not saying they won't, but I'm not going to touch this game.

                  My favorite bets are Denver -7 and Denver/Dallas Over 56, and I (unfortunately) have yet to bet on a Broncos game this year.

                  BTW here are the current spreads and my brief thoughts:

                  BUF @ CLE -4: Cleveland just had an impressive win over CIN and BUF over BAL. I think Cleveland wins, but I try not to bet on inconsistent new QBs (Manuel and Hoyer), especially on a Thursday night game with little preparation. Betting the UNDER (currently at 40.5) on Thursday night games has been free money so far, though. Offenses just can't prepare in 2 days.

                  NO @ CHI PK: New Orleans just punked Miami and Chicago lost against the Lions, so I want to pick NO off the top of my head. But, Chicago has looked impressive in its wins. This game relies on the arm of Jay Cutler, and I'm not willing to put money for/against it. The OVER 48.5 looks pretty good, though. The Bears are averaging 32 ppg and the Saints are averaging 27 ppg.

                  NE @ CIN PK: No idea. Cincinnati seems very inconsistent, and I have little faith in the Patriots. No bet here.

                  DET @ GB -7: I think GB wins AT HOME after a BYE, but the Lions aren't bad and I'm not confident GB wins by 7. I generally only bet underdogs if I think they will win. The OVER 54 looks nice for two teams averaging over 30 ppg.

                  KC @ TEN +3: Taking KC at -3 looks nice with Locker injured.

                  SEA @ IND +3: At the beginning of the season I would have taken SEA in a heartbeat (I thought the Colts were bad), but the Colts have been surprisingly good so far. Not going to play this one, but I would take Indy as the home underdogs if I did.

                  JAX @ STL -11.5: Two teams that suck. I would lean towards JAX covering the spread, but they have yet to do so.

                  BAL @ MIA -3: Again, I think MIA is the better team and will win, but Baltimore's convincing win against Houston is prohibiting me from betting this (and again I don't bet the underdog unless I think they will win).

                  PHI @ NYG -1: I like Philly for this bet, but it's generally dumb to bet an away team in a division game. I think the NYG are a terrible team, and Philly is getting dogged after getting drubbed by Peyton and Co., but division game.

                  CAR @ ARZ +2: Carolina probably puts a whipping on Arizona after Carolina had two weeks to prepare, but I haven't followed either team very well this season.

                  DEN @ DAL 8.5: I got Denver at -7. The line has already moved to -8.5 and I bet it still moves to -9.5 or -10 by gametime. I also got the Over 56.

                  HOU @ SF -7: Kap puts on two very poor showings then lays it on the Rams and people expect that SF is now as good as they originally thought? Schaub won't continue throwing pick 6's every game. Houston had a player's only meeting on Monday to get their **** together. Not playing this game, but I would take Houston if did.

                  SD @ OAK +4: Hard to take an away team in a divisional game, but Rivers is quietly lighting up his opponents. I took SD -4.

                  NYJ @ ATL -10: Don't care.
                  good stuff!!! As far as the SD/Oak game both of Oak RBs are banged up as well. The Az/Carolina game is intriguing because you don't know which Cam will show up. The Giants aren't good but they are better than the Eagles. I think I would take the Giants and the over on this game.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Guess Who View Post
                    Yeah, but I have seen the Rams play as well. The Rams cannot score. They might not score 20 points. If the Jags score 10 they cover the spread.
                    1st 2 games they were fine last 2 were on road and then home vs san fran, they can score, especially vs jax

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by SeedReaver View Post
                      SEA @ IND +3: At the beginning of the season I would have taken SEA in a heartbeat (I thought the Colts were bad), but the Colts have been surprisingly good so far. Not going to play this one, but I would take Indy as the home underdogs if I did.
                      Why on earth would you think the Colts were bad? They went 11-5 last season.

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                      • #12
                        Jax and Oakland....and Oakland/SD over

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                        • #13
                          Actually betting Under on TNF is 2-2. Broncos/Ravens and Niners/Rams went over. Chiefs/Eagles and Jets/Pats under.

                          So right there that fact he thinks its "easy money" tells you everything you need to know about the rest of his selections. Although I do tend to agree. I have been making bank on Broncos, Dolphins (until monday) and Titans. With no Locker, that's going to hurt my bankroll. I like Broncos (and likely over once again), Panthers and Under in Jags/Rams

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by IA-Broncosfan53 View Post
                            Actually betting Under on TNF is 2-2. Broncos/Ravens and Niners/Rams went over. Chiefs/Eagles and Jets/Pats under.

                            So right there that fact he thinks its "easy money" tells you everything you need to know about the rest of his selections. Although I do tend to agree. I have been making bank on Broncos, Dolphins (until monday) and Titans. With no Locker, that's going to hurt my bankroll. I like Broncos (and likely over once again), Panthers and Under in Jags/Rams
                            I am picking the Titans this week over the Chiefs. Fitzpatrick can throw the ball and won't be much of a let down over Locker and might actually be a little better for one game until defenses see him play. I look for a very strong performance by Tennessee this week.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Agamemnon View Post
                              Why on earth would you think the Colts were bad? They went 11-5 last season.
                              That was an extremely fragile 11-5 that was fueled off the emotion of a cancer-ridden coach. Their running game was bad, their defense was bad, most of their wins were miraculous comebacks led by Luck. They should have been a 7-8 win team. Saying they should have gone 11-5 is the same as claiming we should have gone 8-8 with Tebow with our quarterback instead of 5-11 or worse.

                              The Colts were exposed in the playoffs to the surprise of nobody. They just weren't that good. I'm not bagging on the Colts, Luck will be f'ing awesome and I like them as a franchise, I'm just sayin'. They were 10 point underdogs to the 49ers two weeks ago; I'm not the only one who thought they were throwing rocks in a glass house. They made a huge statement by winning that game, however.

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