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The "2.2 million dead" doomsday alarmist walks back own prediction

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  • The "2.2 million dead" doomsday alarmist walks back own prediction

    Well, duh! This is why you don't claims from one paper this seriously!

    The Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions

    British scientist Neil Ferguson ignited the world’s drastic response to the novel Wuhan coronavirus when he published the bombshell report predicting 2.2 million Americans and more than half a million Brits would be killed. After both the U.S. and U.K. governments effectively shut down their citizens and economies, Ferguson is walking back his doomsday scenarios.

    Ferguson’s report from Imperial College, which White House and other officials took seriously, said that if the U.S. and U.K. did not shut down for 18 months, and isolation measures were not taken, “we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months.” His “models” showed overflowing hospitals and ICU beds.

  • #2
    But even 1 is 1 too many nyuk.

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    • #3
      Everybody and their brother is a fuggin contagion modeling expert these days. The one thing that we know is that we know very little about this virus. It is impacting populations far differently across the globe. We don't know if there will be a 2nd or 3rd wave that will be worse or if this thing will mutate to combat antibodies developed by the "cured".

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      • #4
        Originally posted by spdirty View Post
        But even 1 is 1 too many nyuk.
        Yet 2,000 or 28,000 is not quite enough.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by rmsanger View Post
          Everybody and their brother is a fuggin contagion modeling expert these days. The one thing that we know is that we know very little about this virus. It is impacting populations far differently across the globe. We don't know if there will be a 2nd or 3rd wave that will be worse or if this thing will mutate to combat antibodies developed by the "cured".
          There is more than one strain. Also, how countries respond determines the outcome to a large extent.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by spdirty View Post
            But even 1 is 1 too many nyuk.
            What is this supposed to mean?

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            • #7
              Originally posted by mhgaffney View Post

              There is more than one strain. Also, how countries respond determines the outcome to a large extent.
              That's probably true in a sense and it's also true that latitude has an effect. Heavily populated areas in north latitudes between 30 and 50 degrees are being hit hardest. Warmer climates aren't taking the shots we are, as per typical behavior of coronaviruses.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by gunns View Post

                Yet 2,000 or 28,000 is not quite enough.
                If 61,000 dead of the flu in 2017 or 12,000 from H1N1 in 2009 wasn't enough to shut society down...

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by nyuk nyuk View Post

                  If 61,000 dead of the flu in 2017 or 12,000 from H1N1 in 2009 wasn't enough to shut society down...
                  We’re likely to have hundreds of thousands die from this, and that’s with the country shutting down. Without the shut downs we’re likely looking at a million plus dead. Stop comparing this to the flu ffs.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Agamemnon View Post

                    We’re likely to have hundreds of thousands die from this, and that’s with the country shutting down. Without the shut downs we’re likely looking at a million plus dead. Stop comparing this to the flu ffs.
                    There’s no limit to how far tRump smoochers like nyuKKK will stretch the truth and abuse the facts to protect Dear Leader.

                    Meanwhile, for those who live in the real world...

                    Dec 18th - House Impeaches Trump
                    Jan 8th - First CDC warning
                    Jan 9th - Trump campaign rally
                    Jan 14th - Trump campaign rally
                    Jan 16h - House sends impeachment articles to Senate
                    Jan 18th - Trump golfs
                    Jan 19th - Trump golfs
                    Jan 20th - first case of corona virus in the US, Washington State.
                    Jan 22nd - “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”
                    Jan 28th - Trump campaign rally
                    Jan 30th - Trump campaign rally
                    Feb 1st - Trump golfs
                    Feb 2nd - “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China."
                    Feb 5th - Senate votes to acquit. Then takes a five-day weekend.
                    Feb 10th - Trump campaign rally
                    Feb 12th - Dow Jones closes at an all time high of 29,551.42
                    Feb 15h - Trump golfs
                    Feb 19th - Trump campaign rally
                    Feb 20th - Trump campaign rally
                    Feb 21st - Trump campaign rally
                    Feb 24th - “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
                    Feb 25h - “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.”
                    Feb 25h - “I think that's a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”
                    Feb 26th - “The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”
                    Feb 26th - “We're going very substantially down, not up.” Also "This is a flu. This is like a flu"; "Now, you treat this like a flu"; "It's a little like the regular flu that we have flu shots for. And we'll essentially have a flu shot for this in a fairly quick manner."
                    February 27: “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
                    Feb 28th - “We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical.”
                    Feb 28th - Trump campaign rally
                    March 2nd - “You take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that could have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?”
                    March 2nd - “A lot of things are happening, a lot of very exciting things are happening and they’re happening very rapidly.”
                    March 4: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work, but they get better.”
                    March 5th - “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work.”
                    March 5th - “The United States… has, as of now, only 129 cases… and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!”
                    March 6th - “I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down… a tremendous job at keeping it down.”
                    March 6th - “Anybody right now, and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.”
                    March 6th - “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it… Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.”
                    March 6th - “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.”
                    March 7th - Trump golfs
                    March 8th - Trump golfs
                    March 8th - “We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on CoronaVirus.”
                    March 9th - “This blindsided the world.”
                    March 13th - [Declared state of emergency]
                    March 17th - “This is a pandemic,” Mr. Trump told reporters. “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.”
                    March 18th - "It’s not racist at all. No. Not at all. It comes from China. That’s why. It comes from China. I want to be accurate."
                    March 23th- Dow Jones closes at 18,591.93
                    March 25th - 3.3 million Americans file for unemployment.
                    March 30th - Dow Jones closes at 21,917.16
                    April 2nd - 6.6 million Americans file for unemployment.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Agamemnon View Post

                      We’re likely to have hundreds of thousands die from this, and that’s with the country shutting down. Without the shut downs we’re likely looking at a million plus dead. Stop comparing this to the flu ffs.
                      Based on what? The 2.2 million dead study author already ate his own paper for lunch.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by nyuk nyuk View Post

                        Based on what? The 2.2 million dead study author already ate his own paper for lunch.
                        God you are stupid. The original model of 2.2M was based upon the West doing nothing. That has changed, because we are slowly social distancing and bring our industries on line to help. We still need to do more to keep everyone safe. So stay the **** at home.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by elsid13 View Post

                          God you are stupid. The original model of 2.2M was based upon the West doing nothing. That has changed, because we are slowly social distancing and bring our industries on line to help. We still need to do more to keep everyone safe. So stay the **** at home.
                          Nobody should pay attention to one guy's model which is exactly what is happening.

                          I have an essential job. I can't stay home. If you're that frightened, hide in your pillow fort. I had a new car delivered two days ago.

                          Just when are people like you going to understand spiking joblessness is a bigger threat to life and limb than this virus? We already have millions unable to pay rent, mortgage, car payments, medical insurance, prescriptions, and who knows how many can't get groceries - in case they get something which typically produces mild symptoms in people not already riddled with multiple serious health issues after decades of poor lifestyle choices and self-neglect.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by nyuk nyuk View Post

                            Nobody should pay attention to one guy's model which is exactly what is happening.

                            I have an essential job. I can't stay home. If you're that frightened, hide in your pillow fort. I had a new car delivered two days ago.

                            Just when are people like you going to understand spiking joblessness is a bigger threat to life and limb than this virus? We already have millions unable to pay rent, mortgage, car payments, medical insurance, prescriptions, and who knows how many can't get groceries - in case they get something which typically produces mild symptoms in people not already riddled with multiple serious health issues after decades of poor lifestyle choices and self-neglect.
                            When you have lived soft life, I have been shot at for our country and continue to do thing that keep you safe. Do you want to call me soft?

                            Take this serious.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by elsid13 View Post

                              When you have lived soft life, I have been shot at for our country and continue to do thing that keep you safe. Do you want to call me soft?

                              Take this serious.
                              I haven't lived a soft life and your military record doesn't qualify a damned thing you're saying here. "I been shot at" isn't an argument for your position on ANY topic, anywhere, ever. I didn't call you "soft." I do take it seriously. I take extra precaution. But I'm not going to be hysterical about it, either.

                              Are you one of the guys on the streets posing as a cop, pulling people over and following them home?

                              Newsflash: People who have neglected their health for decades are the same demographic that get mowed down in large numbers every flu season. This isn't anything new. I worked in a hospital nearly 17 years and saw it all the time.

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