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  • New COVID 19 Virus Report

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/w...e-johnson.html

    First Report is Above.

    Now same guy said whoops 500,000 Dead in UK was off a bit- Actually only going to be 20,000 or fewer. Virus has spread through population for longer and deeper than thought. Mortality rates are way lower than predicted because way more people have or have had virus.

  • #2
    That model has not been peer reviewed. It's far better to overreact and be wrong then be hopefully and optimistic

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by rugbythug View Post
      https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/w...e-johnson.html

      First Report is Above.

      Now same guy said whoops 500,000 Dead in UK was off a bit- Actually only going to be 20,000 or fewer. Virus has spread through population for longer and deeper than thought. Mortality rates are way lower than predicted because way more people have or have had virus.
      If this is ultimately true, then the slope of the logarithmic line has to start leveling within the next few days.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by rugbythug View Post
        https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/w...e-johnson.html

        First Report is Above.

        Now same guy said whoops 500,000 Dead in UK was off a bit- Actually only going to be 20,000 or fewer. Virus has spread through population for longer and deeper than thought. Mortality rates are way lower than predicted because way more people have or have had virus.
        OABB 313-0

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        • #5
          A guy at work said we shouldn't make decisions based on models because they are "only models." Then proceeded to tell me that prolonged shutdown would be way worse than the virus itself, without citing any data or evidence of this whatsoever, and confidently concluded that it was best to get it over with. He added, "We'll be fine. We always get through things and we will get through this."

          I know not every conservative thinks that way.. but when anyone displays that level of cognitive deficiency i lose a little more hope in our democracy.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by OABB View Post

            OABB 313-0
            You're a sad little boy...

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by MamaMia View Post

              You're a sad little boy...
              Undefeated

              Comment


              • #8
                Seriously though, you’d think the fact that I’m right 100% of the time would buy me some clout. Sheesh. I guess I should try to be wrong once in a while so I’m not so intimidating?

                it’s really weird.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by MamaMia View Post
                  A guy at work said we shouldn't make decisions based on models because they are "only models." Then proceeded to tell me that prolonged shutdown would be way worse than the virus itself, without citing any data or evidence of this whatsoever, and confidently concluded that it was best to get it over with. He added, "We'll be fine. We always get through things and we will get through this."

                  I know not every conservative thinks that way.. but when anyone displays that level of cognitive deficiency i lose a little more hope in our democracy.
                  Of all the things that totally have happened, that happened the mostest.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    20k will die on an island of 66 million people that Is the size of Louisiana. Yea nothingburger, election year bs.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by OABB View Post
                      Seriously though, you’d think the fact that I’m right 100% of the time would buy me some clout. Sheesh. I guess I should try to be wrong once in a while so I’m not so intimidating?

                      it’s really weird.
                      Easy champ, doesn't your bible tell you at least a few thousand times that being conceited is a sin? Hahaha

                      2 things I would like to mention. I've always thought that most people were going to get through this ok. The problem IMO is that we have millions of people in this country who are obese, which leads to chronic health problems (heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure, sleep apnea, asthma, etc) and those are all things that seem to be made even worse when contracting a virus like this. The community shut downs is a means to shallow the curve so hospitals aren't stretched beyond their limits. Granted, the shut downs cannot be sustain for months and months, we'll sink into a depression that might take 10 years to crawl out from under, just in time for the next super virus, LMAO. Seriously though, I think we have to sort of lay in the bed we made on this round. Hopefully this country gets it's **** together and is better prepared the next time. Stock up on vents, masks, beds, whatever. And hopefully this is a wake up call to Americans who think it's perfectly fine to be 50+ pounds over weight.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by rugbythug View Post
                        https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/w...e-johnson.html

                        First Report is Above.

                        Now same guy said whoops 500,000 Dead in UK was off a bit- Actually only going to be 20,000 or fewer. Virus has spread through population for longer and deeper than thought. Mortality rates are way lower than predicted because way more people have or have had virus.
                        Whoops. Sorry not sorry for deliberately crashing the world economy thanks to a timely release by our friends the grand and wonderful Chinese Communist Party.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Oh ffs. If it ends up only being 20,000 dead in the UK it will be because of the shutdown of the country. We have a very definitive case study in the Diamond Princess which makes it clear that even with thorough testing and high quality medical treatment this thing kills well over 1% of those it infects. That is over ten times the mortality rate of the flu if you have ventilators for everyone who needs one. If you don't, the mortality rate goes up quite a bit. If this thing were to be allowed to spread unchecked in the US the death toll would likely top 1 million.

                          Oh, and let's not forget that roughly as many people end up with long-term lung damage as die from this. That's kind of a big deal too.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by elsid13 View Post
                            That model has not been peer reviewed. It's far better to overreact and be wrong then be hopefully and optimistic
                            This! This! This!!!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by rugbythug View Post
                              https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/w...e-johnson.html

                              First Report is Above.

                              Now same guy said whoops 500,000 Dead in UK was off a bit- Actually only going to be 20,000 or fewer. Virus has spread through population for longer and deeper than thought. Mortality rates are way lower than predicted because way more people have or have had virus.
                              The virus is spreading exponentially in the UK and in the US. We are following the trajectory of Italy. This reflects our predatory capitalist system. China and S Korea got the pandemic under control within two months by total shutdown. But Trump is unwilling to do this -- hence it is going to get much worse.

                              The stimulus package has sent the dow jones higher but this will be temporary. If we do not stop the exponential spread -- the positive affect of stimulus will be wasted - like flushing 1-2 $trillion down the toilet.

                              Many infected Americans do not have access to testing or treatment because they have no health care. This is spreading the pandemic. If there was ever a time we needed universal healthcare it is now. Yet the 1% controlled media have persuaded a majority of Americans against Bernie's single payer system. This is a propaganda coup --- that is now being exposed by the pandemic.

                              Get ready for things to become much worse before they improve.

                              Also look at the crazy US foreign policy - blocking medical aid to Iran and Venezuela. Trump also attempted to corner the supply of test kits and medicines for the US exclusively. This shows our *****ed up values -- and our predatory system. It also shows the evil influence of Zionism on our nation. Israel is blocking medical aid to Gaza. This is B.S. All countries must work together to beat the pandemic.
                              Last edited by mhgaffney; 03-27-2020, 12:31 AM.

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