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100 million United States COVID-19 Cases by April 23rd

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  • 100 million United States COVID-19 Cases by April 23rd

    I know we already have COVID-19 threads, but I want as many people to see this as possible. I did some simple research using simple statistics that suggests that the United States is on pace to have 100 million positive COVID-19 cases by April 23rd and I want as many people as possible to see this. If a moderator so chooses, feel free to move this to the WRP forum, merge with another thread, but, please bear with me here.

    I use this AWESOME AWESOME website that do my simple study. This site has tons of information on COVID-19 cases, and is continuously updated all the time.

    https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/#stat

    So, I will walk you through how I came to the conclusion that the United States could have 100 million COVID-19 cases by April 23rd, if the continue rate of confirmed cases continues through this time period.

    First, see the tabs at the very top... Summary, Map, News, Supplies, Trends, Videos. Make sure the Summary tab is selected, so you see a chart of United States Covid-19 cases.

    There are 2 graphs, Cases, and Deaths. We are going to concentrate on cases here, although, you can do the same to predict the number of deaths over the next few weeks.

    On the Cases graph, see the value/log option in the upper left corner? The value option shows the graph with intervals of equal amounts. But, click the log option. This is very important... click the log option. The log option shows the graph with intervals of powers of 10. So, the bottom line is 1, and each line going up is 10x that, so the next line is 10, then 100, then 1000, then 10,000 and so on.

    Now, with the log option selected, you see the orange line showing the number of cumulative cases a steady and gradual trend upward, that is continuing through today.

    ​Here are the facts, as presented by this graph in log format. On March 2nd, the United States reached the 100th cumulative case. On March 10th, the United State reached the 1000th cumulative case. On March 19th, the United State passed the 10,000th cumulative case. Today, late into March 24th, the United States has 55,000 cumulative cases and the line is continuing near the same gradual slope upward. If the current pace of cumulative cases holds, then the United States will reach 100,000 cumulative cases in the next 1 or 2 days.

    So, again, let's look at the number of days passed that will go between reaching each logarithmic power of 10 scale:

    March 2nd- 100 cases
    March 2nd- March 10th- 8 days 1000 cumulative cases
    March 10th to March 19th- 9 days 10,000 cumulative cases
    March 19th to March March 27th- 8 days 100,000 cumulative cases

    Lets extrapolate this further if the logarithmic scale continues its current trend.... I'll just assume a conservative 9 days (as other logarithmic power of 10 jumps was 7 or 8 days), to reach the next power of 10 intervals

    April 5th 1,000,000 cases
    April 14th 10,000,000 cases
    April 23rd 100,000,000 cases


    Pretty scary, isn't it?
    Last edited by SVine; 03-27-2020, 01:56 PM. Reason: Made changes to original message in bold since 100,000 cumulative cases has been reported.

  • #2
    So, with a 1% mortality rate, that's a million people.

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    • #3
      I didn't read everything, but I think this has been around for much longer and there is no east to accurately guess how prevalent it is since testing is so limited. You have to have good data to get a good prediction

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      • #4
        Not exactly what I would call scientific methodology there, but I think that’s completely possible given how nonchalant all the idiots in this country are being about this brewing catastrophe. If we have 100m cases that’ll put the death toll in the millions ultimately with roughly an equal number with longterm lung damage.

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        • #5
          I just skyped with my grandkids tonight. I am not ready to go. To help with corporate profits. I want to watch my grandkids play baseball later this year. So, all you motherfockers stay home and wash your fugging hands so I will live to see that day.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Agamemnon View Post
            Not exactly what I would call scientific methodology there, but I think that’s completely possible given how nonchalant all the idiots in this country are being about this brewing catastrophe. If we have 100m cases that’ll put the death toll in the millions ultimately with roughly an equal number with longterm lung damage.
            I know it's not scientific, my conclusions is based purely on the slope of the line on the logarithmic scale. If that slope holds steady over the next 3-4 weeks on this logarithmic scale, then we will have 100 million cases by around the 3rd week of April. Again, its based purely on the slope of the line that has held steady since March 2nd, as the slope continues its current slope. If you look closely at the slope, it does go a tiny bit less steep in the last day (March 23rd-March 24th), so if that is a sign that the slope is starting to go less steep than that could be a good sign.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by SVine View Post

              I know it's not scientific, my conclusions is based purely on the slope of the line on the logarithmic scale. If that slope holds steady over the next 3-4 weeks on this logarithmic scale, then we will have 100 million cases by around the 3rd week of April. Again, its based purely on the slope of the line that has held steady since March 2nd, as the slope continues its current slope. If you look closely at the slope, it does go a tiny bit less steep in the last day (March 23rd-March 24th), so if that is a sign that the slope is starting to go less steep than that could be a good sign.
              Regardless, we are in for millions upon millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. And the dumb****s among us are still trying to act like it’s not a big deal.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Paladin View Post
                I just skyped with my grandkids tonight. I am not ready to go. To help with corporate profits. I want to watch my grandkids play baseball later this year. So, all you motherfockers stay home and wash your fugging hands so I will live to see that day.
                Ed Asner warned today, "You better not kill Betty White!"

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                • #9
                  You know whats even scarier than that...

                  April 30th- 1 Billion Americans with Covid 19! even with a Mortality of .01% tens of millions will die!

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                  • #10
                    Really going to have to ramp up testing to get there. From April 14th to April 23 we will need to be able to process 150 positive tests a second. Currently we take 3 plus days for test results. We are going to get much better at it though for the math to work.

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                    • #11
                      Running Back-
                      First Game .3 yards.
                      2nd Game 3 yards
                      3rd Game 30 yards
                      4th Game 300 Yards!
                      5th Game New Season Record! 3000 yards

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by rugbythug View Post
                        Really going to have to ramp up testing to get there. From April 14th to April 23 we will need to be able to process 150 positive tests a second. Currently we take 3 plus days for test results. We are going to get much better at it though for the math to work.
                        It's taking over a week in some settings, so in many cases it doesn't make sense to test and backlog it even more.

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                        • #13
                          Not that scary really. I think the spikes in cases are due to testing more people.

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                          • #14
                            You can't deny the logarithmic slope though. At some point, the grade of the slope will have to level off, or else we will get to 100 million cases. Now, there could be some factors that will limit cases.... social distancing actually working and the limited number of tests is a valid point that can flatten the slope.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by SVine View Post
                              You can't deny the logarithmic slope though. At some point, the grade of the slope will have to level off, or else we will get to 100 million cases. Now, there could be some factors that will limit cases.... social distancing actually working and the limited number of tests is a valid point that can flatten the slope.
                              It's the slope increasing because of more cases, or because of more testing. This isn't an exponential growth thing. It's a bell curve. There will be a peak, them there will be a fall off. How high the peak goes, and how long it stays there, only time will tell

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