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Zerovoltz KC Offseason Discussion Thread

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  • Zerovoltz KC Offseason Discussion Thread

    Making this thread to organize my thoughts about the Chiefs offseason leading up to the draft.

    Won't get into much until after KC finishes off their super bowl win....but a few things for certain.

    1. KC will be extending Pat Mahomes. It will be the NFL's richest contract the moment it is signed. Some things to watch for...does Mahomes wait until Watson and DAK do their deals first and then come in over the top? Of does he sign first....and essentially cap their markets? I don't think it would be a good look on Mahomes Agent, Leigh Stienberg, if his client doesn't come out of this offseason as the NFL's heighest paid player so my guess is they'll wait...unless KC simply gets way out ahead of this and sets the bar super high. I don't expect this to be a contentious negotiation as KC is going to willingly pay Patrick whatever it takes. I suspect its going to come in even higher than most projections I've seen....I am thinking around 42-45 mil per season....with 90 to 100 percent of the whole thing guaranteed. It should be the contract that holds the market until Lamar comes up.

    2. KC has to decide what to do with Chris Jones. They will work on an extension, but it's going to be a big number. KC could franchise....or franchise and trade. I'd like to think KC knows what they have and are going to fork over the money, or at minimum, tag him and try and negotiate a deal.

    Those two items are going to put strain on the 2020 cap, but some relief will be coming when they cut Sammy Watkins. You can 100% take that to the bank. Watkins has a 21 million dollar cap number in 2020...that is the highest for any WR in the leauge. KC saves 14 million by cutting him. You can also all but be sure the Dr. Laurant Duvernay Tardiff will be a cap casualty as well. He has a 9 million dollar cap hit....KC can save 5 million if he is cut. Another 3 mil each could be saved by cutting Cam Erving, Dan Sorenson, and Damien Wilson. I don't think they are inclined to want to cut any of those three, but it's on the table if money is needed elsewhere.

    Planning much beyond 2020 is tough because of the CBA expiring.

    Some clear needs heading to 2020:

    In no particular order -

    Interior O line, CB, ILB.

    KC made some moves in season in an attempt to address shortcomings on their interior O line and at CB. They signed Stefan Wisneiski, who had been cut from Philly, they traded for Martinas Rankins and tried a few others from the practice squad etc. Before he tore his ACL, Rankins was about to supplant one of the DR, or LG Wiley....he had outplayed both. Wisnieski was then pressed into duty at LG when Wylie got hurt and as of this writing, he has supplanted him as the starting LG. Unfortunately, the DR, and Center Austin Reiter are below average NFL linemen who aren't very good pass blockers AND can't get a push in the run game. Both are at their best out in space on screens, pulls, and traps. Mahomes started having a lot of trouble mid year, once he had injured his ankle a couple times...he didn't trust his line and started drifting back, out of clean pockets, throwing off back foot etc. I beleive Ried and co, understand they CAN NOT enter 2020 with the low quality crap at G-C-G they rolled out there this year.

    At CB, KC has a very solid group finally, but have alot of expiring contracts. Fuller, Breeland and Mo Claiborne are all FA. Leaving only Charvarious Ward and Rashad Fenton under contract at CB. They'll have work to do here to address this.

    ILB is a need, but not one that is going to get much attention because Anthony Hitchens rotten contract insures he's on the roster in 2020...resources won't be allocated here...so any improvement at this spot is going to be very low end FA or draft....and not high draft most likely.

    KC's special teams are in very good shape, K Harrison Butker is locked up, P Colquit is getting old but can still handle the punting duties and is under contract in 2020 for a reasonable 650k. Long Snapper Winchester is also under contract again in 2020.

    KC will probalby be in the backup QB market.....Given the cap amount Mahomes is about to consume, KC will need a cheaper back up than Chad Henne. That may be Kyle Shurmer, but could also be a low end journeyman on a cheap deal.....maybe someone like Case Keenum ....or other fringe old hanger on type.

    KC will likely remain in a committee/cheap RB situation.

    If the right fit, comes in the draft, they should be looking at a compliment to, and eventual replacement for Travis Kelce. KC has gotten very lucky that Kelce has been durable for most of his KC tenure because they've had NOTHING behind him for years.

    AT WR, KC will roll into 2020 with Hill and Hardman. I do not expect KC will make an offer to De Marcus Robinson. KC doesn't pay it's #3's in recent years, letting them walk...Albert Wilson, a couple years ago, and Chris Conley last year were alowed to move on. Robinson is next. Pringle becomes the new 3 and Kc will fill that in with late draft picks or low end FA as they have for the past several years with success. As mentioned before. Sammy Watkins won't be back.

    DL, and Safety are in good shape heading to 2020.

    Having signed Mahomes and Jones to big deals, KC won't be major players for big time FA....instead looking to the bargain bin, and ahead to the draft to fill most other holes.

  • #2
    KC in Super Bowl...picking 31st or 32nd. Early thought is TRADE OUT. Pick up a little somthing for the trouble....throw numbers at interior O line, CB and LB.

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    • #3
      Thinking out loud about Chris Jones contract.

      .....Damn.....just going over the scenarios in my mind...and it's hard to to see a path forward where they have Jones locked up on a long term deal.

      BEST CASE SCENARIO. KC has already announced they are waiting until the draft to do Mahomes deal. I don't think that timeline actually has anything to do with the draft itself, but rather, the team is waiting to see if a CBA is completed by then, thus giving them some sort of framework to go off of when doing contracts. ....This doens't affect Jones directly because the franchise designation would have to come in March, before the FA period starts. IF it looks like the CBA is on track to be signed and KC is familiar with the parameters of it...THEN MAYBE, they could find a creative way to get a deal done....the thing about this all is....once Jones is designated a Franchise Player....the player and team would have until July 15th to negotiate a long term deal. This is why the CBA and Mahomes deal coming around draft time is important.

      Let's say KC designates Jones with the tag (this is a 99.9 percent certainty) ......and then the CBA gets done.....and there are provisions in that affording KC some room to manuever (that being a forecast of TV revenues outpacing salary expansion early in the deal) In a best case scenario, DAK and WATSON deals are still not complete, but KC moves first and gets Mahomes at "merely" 40 mil per. This would cap the QB market for a couple years.....and signing first might allow for just a slight bit of discount along with anticipated revenue increases.....MAYBE KC can fit Jones in.

      SECOND BEST SCENARIO. KC tags jones...wich would be around 15-16 Million for 2020. Jones plays on the tag. Perhaps a deal gets done later, but KC gets Jones for another SB run.

      MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. Tag and Trade. Even under the most optimistic of scenarios, it's hard to see how KC can committ to TWO D-linemen making over 20 million per season on long term deals at this point. KC has most of the core signed up long term, but they need A LOT of other players, including a good number of midlevel, productive depth guys that they'd be priced out of, if committed to Jones at a high number. KC can expect a nice return on a player of Jones caliber. He'd likely still be dearly missed as his skill set is hard to replace (thus his high price tag) ...this would also give the Chief the ability to ship him to an NFC team where he'd likely have little effect on KC's future on the field. Certainly, the last thing KC would want is to see Jones in a Broncos uniform etc.

      Least Likely. Chris Jones isn't tagged and walks. Simply not happening when KC has the tag leverage and can get something for him or have him play for a little less than market value for another year.

      As the Tag and Trade is most likely...some potential destinations:

      Tampa...has cap space, has a need. Arizona. Same. Giants...same. If KC were to listen to AFC team offers, the Colts and Bills would be at the top of the list of teams calling to see what it would take.

      If Jones isn't on the roster in 2020....KC would have an increased interest in the draft at D line, but more likely would expand the roles of guys like Khalen Saunders, and bring back Okafor and Ogbah to fill the void while investing draft capital elswhere (CB, I-OL and LB)

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      • #4
        ......dissappointed that MIZZOU IDL Jordan Elliot is starting to get some run leading up to the draft.....even saw one scout rank him freaking THIRD best interior DL already...WTF. .....as a mizzou fan....was hoping this guy would continue to fly under the radar.....he doesn't have the stats or production of a Chris Jones...but his play style and size etc remind me of Jones. In the event KC moves on from Jones, he was an under the radar type I am looking at. Was hoping for a round 3 type aquisition....that doesn't seem possible at this early point already...looking like a 2nd rounder quite possilby now. ugh.

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