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Zerovoltz 2019 Draft Analysis

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  • Zerovoltz 2019 Draft Analysis

    My thoughts on this draft.

    1. This a ONE QB draft. Kyler Murray is it. (it could be 2 IF Grier ends up in a good spot) I love Murray and I like Grier. The rest of the QB's in this class are garbage. Grier would need to land in a place like Cincinnatti where he'd have a chance to supplant the starter in order for this to become a two QB class. Unfortunately for Grier, I get the impression that a team like Indy or Carolina would take him and he'll ride the bench behind a well established starter.

    2. This draft has a TON of DL blue chip prospects at the top...and it will be D line heavy in the first 15 picks.

    3. Combine the idea here that it's a one QB draft, and that the blue chips will be available into the 20's and that means your going to have a draft with little or no trading at the top. With no QB to go up for, none of the teams like Washington or Miami will be inclined to pay a price to move up for the 2nd QB in this draft who is probably every bit as good (or bad as the case may be) as the 8th QB. Also, if you can get a Blue chip defender at 20, why trade up to 8, 9 etc? The market conditions aren't going to be there for teams to want to pay to move up.

    4. This all means the Broncos and others up at the top will be staying put and making a selection. If the Bills don't take Hockensen at 9, I can see the Broncos going with him, however, I really think the Bills take the Broncos will wait until later for a TE and get Fangio another defender. I think Devin White will be on the board when the Broncos pick and as many here have mentioned, would be an ideal piece to make the Fangio Defense run as intended.

    5. The Giants won't take a QB in round 1. The Broncos won't take a QB in round 1. The Dolphins won't take a QB in round 1. The Redskins won't take a QB in round 1 (because I think they will be trading their pick to Arizona for Rosen) In fact, after Murray, the other QB's are going to slide down the board....again, based on my assesment that these QB's suck, coupled with the blue chippers into the 20' reason to draft a flawed QB high when you can get the same flawed guy in round 4. I wouldn't be entirely surprised at all if only Murray goes in round 1.

    6. Round 2 will see several WR that will prove to be good value selections.

    Yes, I know you all don't care for the Chiefs fans perspective, but this is high quality analysis and I provide it for free.

  • #2
    Quarterbacks.....I think many are have misevaluated the QB position as it pertains to where these guys will be drafted because the last 3 classes have produced so well. I think that people are assuming there must be 3 or 4 good QB in a class now just because that has been the recent trend. What I think people have completely missed is that teams are evaluating the position more accurately. That has coincided with the last 3 classes having good QB's in them.

    2016. First Round.


    2017. First Round

    2018 First Round

    Every player on this list except Lynch is their teams starter. Rosen technically is...but will be traded and is considered a good prospect still.

    All 5 from the 2016 and 2017 have already played in at least one playoff game.

    Without going too deep, you could make a reasonable argument that all 5 of those QB's were absolutely correct choices, who had, for the most part, been correctly evaluated by the teams who took them. You can make a very strong case that none are busts. You can make a decent case that all 5 2018 QB's have worked out so far (I would argue that isn't quite the case yet, but for this argument, I'm going with the thought these guys are considered legit)

    If you believe, as I do, that teams have in fact, improved at their evaluation of the QB position, AND you believe that this group isn't that good. ( I think it's a poor group after Murray) Then, to me, that means these QB's are going to fall farther than people think.

    As it pertains to Denver...I'll reiterate my points here again...Elway has CORRECTLY evaluated this draft class as far as QB goes. His coaching hire also is a STRONG indication that Elway still believes that he has a good roster that needs better coaching and simply, average QB play to win. He didn't hire Vic Fangio to develop a drafted QB. Fangio is going to win with Defense and Flacco or he is getting fired and the next coach gets to develop the drafted QBOTF that would come later on. I believe ALL QB will be on the board at 10 when Denver picks...they won't have a trade partner, and will stay there and select a defender.

    The one team poised to actually take their next QB right now is the Bengals. New offensive minded coach. No extension for Dalton. Dalton can be cut anytime with no dead money right now. The Bengals are prone to doing things to sell tickets. Haskins makes sense for these reasons.

    The other surprises here are going to be the teams eveyrone thinks will go QB and they are will not be. The Giants have Dave Gettleman....who is bound and determined to prove everyone wrong about his drafting philosphy......If they don't take a QB at 6 (they won't) then they aren't taking one at 17 either. I can't see Gettleman liking any of these guys enough to swallow his pride and stake his reputation on. His odds of hitting on a defender at 6 and maybe a WR at 17, are alot better than hitting on a QB (especially this year) He'll be able to show his detractors that he was right to take the guys he took and they'll go forward another year with Eli.

    The Redskins are going to roll with Keenum and McCoy. The Redskins are NOT going to give this front office and coaching staff the benefit of more time that you'd get with a new QB to develop. They need to win now and they have some good pieces on D. They'll take a player who can help now....that isn't one of these iffy QBs.

    The Dolphins are an enigma. They are rolling with Fitz. They are reportedly going to consider this year a tank/blow up year. They did hire a new coach, so the grace etc needed for the new QB that new coaches gets, exists here. I don't see them considering themselves as ready to draft a QB now. I think they want to get through this year of cap hell and blow up the roster and see how next years class shakes out. No reason to start your rebuild with a QB who they won't start, and have no confidence in starting.

    That leaves late round trade ups to consider....Lock will be a juicy target for someone perhaps later....but with the depth of defensive and TE talent in this draft...I can see no moves back into round 1 for Lock, Jones or anyone else.

    The class just isn't that good, and the circumstances of the teams who are percieved to need QB's aren't aligned with a desperation move....combine that with what I believe are improved scouting efforts and you have a 1st round that has TWO Qb's drafted.


    • #3
      Daniel Snyder is going to screw me out of correctly predicting that the Redskins Front office was NOT going QB in this draft. Clearly by taking direct control for the first round, Snyder was told by his people they weren’t going QB and he is overruling them because he disagrees.

      The “big news” the Raiders have been planning has been a ruse to make teamsxbelieve they want Haskins. They don’t. They want someone to trade up to 3 and take a QB instead of a prime defender.

      The Jets are reported to want to trade out of three. I can totally see them making a deal with the skins to move down. Snyder will take Haskins at 3 when no one else was going QB in the top 10.

      only rumor out of Cindy is they definitely aren’t going QB....and now they definitely aren’t going to if Dan Snyder does in fact make the move up.