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From YourSITE.com Columnists
Run the ball, eat up as much of the clock as possible and keep Manning on the sidelines. This is what conventional wisdom tells us is the key to beating the Indianapolis Colts. Correction: the undefeated Indianapolis Colts.
A couple of weeks back, Tony Dungy hung the word "soft" on his rushing defense. He was right. The Colts are ranked 29th in rushing yards given up. They are ranked dead last in the league in rushing yards per attempt at 5.2. These guys are softer than the Pillsbury Doughboy. The Colt rushing defense has given up almost twice as many first downs as the Denver rushing defense with teams converting nearly 50 first downs against them so far this season. This defense is flat soft against the run. And teams have exposed that soft underbelly with virtually zero success. The Colts have not lost a game this season.
While the Colts are clearly soft against the run, their passing defense appears to be a bit more stout—at least on the surface. They are currently ranked 7th in completions against them. In fact they are ranked ahead of the Denver Broncos in passing completions (112 vs. 118; it’s not much, but it’s notable). Though these passing defense numbers look good at first glance, they don’t hold up to scrutiny. Dig a little deeper and you’ll find that the Colts are ranked 31st in percentage of completions thrown against them. Teams that throw on the Colts complete a whopping 66.3 percent of their passes against them. These guys are soft against the pass too!
This leads us back to conventional wisdom and all the good it’s done for those who have faced the Colts this year. Teams are trying to beat the Colts by playing it safe and rushing against their soft defense. They aren’t challenging the Colts down the field. In fact, the only team who has been thrown on less than the Indianapolis Colts is the Oakland Raiders (28 and 24 passes per game, respectively). The prevailing wisdom against Oakland seems to be why risk passing when you can run up and down them all day. The game plan seems similar against the Colts, with the added benefit of keeping Peyton Manning on the sidelines as much as possible. Back to conventional wisdom-- where it's clearly established that conventional wisdom hasn’t done a thing towards putting a chalk mark in the Colts loss column. Whether it’s a 14-13 scrapper, or a 43-24 barnburner, the undefeated Colts are finding ways to win.
Perhaps playing it safe against the Colts is the game planning equivalent to the famous “prevent” defense. You know: the one that prevents you from winning. By not taking their shots down the field, are teams “playing not to lose,” instead of playing to win? It’s something to consider, especially when you realize that as soft as the Colts defense is, opposing teams are scoring on them by an average of only 20.3 points per game. The Colts, on the other hand, are beating teams with an average of 28.5 points per game.
Coming from a perspective sympathetic to the Denver Broncos, perhaps it’s folly to make the point that the way to beat the Colts just might be through the combination of pressing downfield offensively while putting pressure on Peyton Manning with some tough defense. The mere idea of challenging the Colts to keep up in a shoot-out is not only counter-intuitive, but also laughable considering the Broncos current offensive woes. Only one team has scored fewer than the Broncos 79 points this season: the Oakland Raiders, with 72 points.
But still, given the failure of conventional wisdom to take this team down, it’s a hard thought to shake. Especially when you consider that the Colts defense, which appears to be so soft, just lost their team’s interception leader for the season. Defensive back, Mike Doss, tore his ACL against Washington and is out for the season. Doss was actually playing in replacement for run-oriented safety, Bob Sanders, who returns this week after recovering from a knee injury that required arthriscopic surgery.
Whatever the solution is, what’s clear is that the Broncos will have their work cut out for them against a team that knows how to win. If the stats are any kind of indicator, the Broncos will need to put together a complete game that lasts for four quarters on both offense and defense.
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