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Old 08-22-2011, 03:46 PM   #1
epicSocialism4tw
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Default The Book on Orton, CH 1: Red Zone Performance

I did a quick little statistical analysis on Orton's red zone abilities this morning. This is what it looks like:

Orton 2010 Red Zone Statistics

Total Red Zone Posessions: 53

Att/Comp: 30/70 --> for 42.9%

Third Down Conversions: 0/12 for 0.000%

Fourth Down Conversions: 1/4 for 25%

2-Point Conversions: 0/1 for 0.000%

Passing TD per posession 12/53 for 22.6%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

This begs the question...will Fox have the cajones to pull Orton occasionally in the red zone if he exhibits this kind of ineffectiveness this season?
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Old 08-22-2011, 03:51 PM   #2
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At least he doesn't turn the ball over in the redzone. You should have looked at how many times his team wound up with points as well.

I'm not happy with him in the redzone either I was just sayin'.
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Old 08-22-2011, 03:53 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by BMarsh615 View Post
At least he doesn't turn the ball over in the redzone. You should have looked at how many times his team wound up with points as well.

I'm not happy with him in the redzone either I was just sayin'.
Feel free to add any statistics you want to the discussion. The more the merrier.
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:03 PM   #4
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Orton in general on 3rd and 4th downs:

Down-----comp/att-----%-----yds------TD/INT-----sacked
3rd----------60/120---50.0----670--------3/5-------16---
4th-----------4/11----36.4------49--------1/0--------0---
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:07 PM   #5
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Redzone rushing stats (Not including Tebow):
40/66, 1.65 avg, 7 TD

Tebow:
8/26, 3.2 avg, 5 TD

If we can have a short yardage running game that isn't awful, than Tebow becomes less necessary. If not, he's by far the best answer (maybe the best answer anyway)
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:08 PM   #6
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Orton on 3rd and goal and 4th and goal:

3rd and goal-----0/3
4th and goal-----0/1
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:20 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkporter View Post
Redzone rushing stats (Not including Tebow):
40/66, 1.65 avg, 7 TD

Tebow:
8/26, 3.2 avg, 5 TD

If we can have a short yardage running game that isn't awful, than Tebow becomes less necessary. If not, he's by far the best answer (maybe the best answer anyway)
Tebow in a Red Zone Specialist role:

4 posessions
3 TD rushing
1 TD passing

4/4 conversion for a 100% conversion rate.
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:23 PM   #8
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We only had 3 3rd and Goals last year??
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:25 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Inkana7 View Post
We only had 3 3rd and Goals last year??
He only threw the ball on 3rd and goal 3 times.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/...QIBsHaC5H.uLYF
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:31 PM   #10
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:34 PM   #11
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I guess the real question is: does anyone have faith that Orton will change his stripes this season?
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:34 PM   #12
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Good God, I knew they must be bad but not that bad.

The funny thing is his red-zone QBR is in the high 80s I think.
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:34 PM   #13
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Did you guys know that Tebow is saving himself for Epic? True story.
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:34 PM   #14
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does anyone have the time to look up what his stats are in the last 5 mins of the game when we are down? this is the drag on Orton for me .... he seems to get tunnel vision and a case of the whoopsies (fumbled snaps, slips, etc) when it really matters.

That said, i'll root for him until my voice goes away day in and day out.
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:36 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Liquid Courage View Post
does anyone have the time to look up what his stats are in the last 5 mins of the game when we are down? this is the drag on Orton for me .... he seems to get tunnel vision and a case of the whoopsies (fumbled snaps, slips, etc) when it really matters.

That said, i'll root for him until my voice goes away day in and day out.
I thought about something similar, but I didn't have time.

My frame of reference would have been Orton with the Broncos down 2 or more scores (< -10pts), with a spread over all quarters of the game.
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:39 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by epicSocialism4tw View Post
I did a quick little statistical analysis on Orton's red zone abilities this morning. This is what it looks like:

Orton 2010 Red Zone Statistics

Total Red Zone Posessions: 53

Att/Comp: 30/70 --> for 42.9%

Third Down Conversions: 0/12 for 0.000%

Fourth Down Conversions: 1/4 for 25%


2-Point Conversions: 0/1 for 0.000%

Passing TD per posession 12/53 for 22.6%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

This begs the question...will Fox have the cajones to pull Orton occasionally in the red zone if he exhibits this kind of ineffectiveness this season?
See bolded. Maybe that's why he seemed so bad in the red zone last year. It's literally the case that almost every time he COULD fail to convert a 1st down or touchdown in the redzone (with a pass attempt), he did.

No wonder the feeling grew as the year went on.
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:43 PM   #17
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Imagine being on the field, watching the guy who led your team 80 yards get pulled before hitting paydirt. It's demoralizing. The steelers had little luck using slash inside the 20 in the 90's, it frustrated the entire team.
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:48 PM   #18
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What's more demoralizing for the team: watching Tebow go in and actually score the TD, or watching Orton flail about hopelessly followed by a Prater FG?
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:49 PM   #19
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See bolded. Maybe that's why he seemed so bad in the red zone last year. It's literally the case that almost every time he COULD fail to convert a 1st down or touchdown in the redzone (with a pass attempt), he did.

No wonder the feeling grew as the year went on.
There were also several times where the Broncos needed him to come through to either go up points or stay competitive where he failed pretty miserably.

The Broncos had two chances to score late in the season opener against Jacksonville to tie the score and take the game to OT, but Orton couldn't put a drive together.

Against the Colts, the Broncos D was playing well and getting the ball back to the offense, and Orton couldn't put a drive together to put points on the board, including a drive where the Broncos were down 6-0 in the second quarter when Orton threw a pick on 3rd and 5 from the Indy 35 yard line to end a drive, which the Colts took down the field and scored on...making the game 13-0. The Broncos next posession, they finally put together a drive into the red zone, and Orton couldnt convert a 3rd and 1.

There were many of those kinds of moments last season.
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:53 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by epicSocialism4tw View Post
I did a quick little statistical analysis on Orton's red zone abilities this morning. This is what it looks like:

Orton 2010 Red Zone Statistics

Total Red Zone Posessions: 53

Att/Comp: 30/70 --> for 42.9%

Third Down Conversions: 0/12 for 0.000%

Fourth Down Conversions: 1/4 for 25%

2-Point Conversions: 0/1 for 0.000%

Passing TD per posession 12/53 for 22.6%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

This begs the question...will Fox have the cajones to pull Orton occasionally in the red zone if he exhibits this kind of ineffectiveness this season?
You didn't include INT's, TD's, and sacks. I thought for sure you would include sacks. Let's see if you include INT's, or the lack thereof, and TD's.

Last edited by Cito Pelon; 08-22-2011 at 04:55 PM..
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:54 PM   #21
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You didn't include INT's and sacks. I thought for sure you would include sacks. Let's see if you include INT's, or the lack therof.
You should go and find and compile statistics that you want to contribute.
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Old 08-22-2011, 04:58 PM   #22
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You didn't include INT's, TD's, and sacks. I thought for sure you would include sacks. Let's see if you include INT's, or the lack thereof, and TD's.
I don't think he had a red zone INT last year, so that's good. (About the same number of completions in the red zone as INT's in the red zone).

I don't think there's a way to glean when he was sacked on 3rd down in the red zone. According the splits, he was sacked 16 times on third down last year. So in addition to the low completion rate on 3rd down, 16 times a drive was killed by a 3rd down sack.
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Old 08-22-2011, 05:05 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by epicSocialism4tw View Post
You should go and find and compile statistics that you want to contribute.
Good point. Yeah, I probably should, but I'm not gonna argue with you too much. Orton has been a middle of the road kind of QB, so I'm not gonna rag on him.
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Old 08-22-2011, 05:09 PM   #24
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Good point. Yeah, I probably should, but I'm not gonna argue with you too much. Orton has been a middle of the road kind of QB, so I'm not gonna rag on him.
In the red zone it doesn't appear as though he's very effective at converting important plays.
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Old 08-22-2011, 05:13 PM   #25
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It looks to me like you went to a lot of work to compile an argument that the powers-that-be will never read.... and that can make no difference whatsoever in the final decision they've already made.
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