The Book on Orton, CH 1: Red Zone Performance - The Orange Mane

epicSocialism4tw · 08-22-2011, 03:46 PM

I did a quick little statistical analysis on Orton's red zone abilities this morning. This is what it looks like:

Orton 2010 Red Zone Statistics

Total Red Zone Posessions: 53

Att/Comp: 30/70 --> for 42.9%

Third Down Conversions: 0/12 for 0.000%

Fourth Down Conversions: 1/4 for 25%

2-Point Conversions: 0/1 for 0.000%

Passing TD per posession 12/53 for 22.6%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

This begs the question...will Fox have the cajones to pull Orton occasionally in the red zone if he exhibits this kind of ineffectiveness this season?

BMarsh615 · 08-22-2011, 03:51 PM

At least he doesn't turn the ball over in the redzone. You should have looked at how many times his team wound up with points as well.

I'm not happy with him in the redzone either I was just sayin'.

epicSocialism4tw · 08-22-2011, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BMarsh615

At least he doesn't turn the ball over in the redzone. You should have looked at how many times his team wound up with points as well.

I'm not happy with him in the redzone either I was just sayin'.

Feel free to add any statistics you want to the discussion. The more the merrier.

epicSocialism4tw · 08-22-2011, 04:03 PM

Orton in general on 3rd and 4th downs:

Down-----comp/att-----%-----yds------TD/INT-----sacked
3rd----------60/120---50.0----670--------3/5-------16---
4th-----------4/11----36.4------49--------1/0--------0---

mkporter · 08-22-2011, 04:07 PM

Redzone rushing stats (Not including Tebow):
40/66, 1.65 avg, 7 TD

Tebow:
8/26, 3.2 avg, 5 TD

If we can have a short yardage running game that isn't awful, than Tebow becomes less necessary. If not, he's by far the best answer (maybe the best answer anyway)

epicSocialism4tw · 08-22-2011, 04:08 PM

Orton on 3rd and goal and 4th and goal:

3rd and goal-----0/3
4th and goal-----0/1

epicSocialism4tw · 08-22-2011, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mkporter

Redzone rushing stats (Not including Tebow):
40/66, 1.65 avg, 7 TD

Tebow:
8/26, 3.2 avg, 5 TD

If we can have a short yardage running game that isn't awful, than Tebow becomes less necessary. If not, he's by far the best answer (maybe the best answer anyway)

Tebow in a Red Zone Specialist role:

4 posessions
3 TD rushing
1 TD passing

4/4 conversion for a 100% conversion rate.

Inkana7 · 08-22-2011, 04:23 PM

We only had 3 3rd and Goals last year??

epicSocialism4tw · 08-22-2011, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inkana7

We only had 3 3rd and Goals last year??

He only threw the ball on 3rd and goal 3 times.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/...QIBsHaC5H.uLYF

TheElusiveKyleOrton · 08-22-2011, 04:31 PM

epicSocialism4tw · 08-22-2011, 04:34 PM

I guess the real question is: does anyone have faith that Orton will change his stripes this season?

KO5K · 08-22-2011, 04:34 PM

Good God, I knew they must be bad but not that bad.

The funny thing is his red-zone QBR is in the high 80s I think.

TheElusiveKyleOrton · 08-22-2011, 04:34 PM

Did you guys know that Tebow is saving himself for Epic? True story.

Liquid Courage · 08-22-2011, 04:34 PM

does anyone have the time to look up what his stats are in the last 5 mins of the game when we are down? this is the drag on Orton for me .... he seems to get tunnel vision and a case of the whoopsies (fumbled snaps, slips, etc) when it really matters.

That said, i'll root for him until my voice goes away day in and day out.

epicSocialism4tw · 08-22-2011, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Liquid Courage

does anyone have the time to look up what his stats are in the last 5 mins of the game when we are down? this is the drag on Orton for me .... he seems to get tunnel vision and a case of the whoopsies (fumbled snaps, slips, etc) when it really matters.

That said, i'll root for him until my voice goes away day in and day out.

I thought about something similar, but I didn't have time.

My frame of reference would have been Orton with the Broncos down 2 or more scores (< -10pts), with a spread over all quarters of the game.

Jay3 · 08-22-2011, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by epicSocialism4tw

I did a quick little statistical analysis on Orton's red zone abilities this morning. This is what it looks like:

Orton 2010 Red Zone Statistics

Total Red Zone Posessions: 53

Att/Comp: 30/70 --> for 42.9%

Third Down Conversions: 0/12 for 0.000%

Fourth Down Conversions: 1/4 for 25%

2-Point Conversions: 0/1 for 0.000%

Passing TD per posession 12/53 for 22.6%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

This begs the question...will Fox have the cajones to pull Orton occasionally in the red zone if he exhibits this kind of ineffectiveness this season?

See bolded. Maybe that's why he seemed so bad in the red zone last year. It's literally the case that almost every time he COULD fail to convert a 1st down or touchdown in the redzone (with a pass attempt), he did.

No wonder the feeling grew as the year went on.

Blart · 08-22-2011, 04:43 PM

Imagine being on the field, watching the guy who led your team 80 yards get pulled before hitting paydirt. It's demoralizing. The steelers had little luck using slash inside the 20 in the 90's, it frustrated the entire team.

Broncobiv · 08-22-2011, 04:48 PM

What's more demoralizing for the team: watching Tebow go in and actually score the TD, or watching Orton flail about hopelessly followed by a Prater FG?

epicSocialism4tw · 08-22-2011, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jay3

See bolded. Maybe that's why he seemed so bad in the red zone last year. It's literally the case that almost every time he COULD fail to convert a 1st down or touchdown in the redzone (with a pass attempt), he did.

No wonder the feeling grew as the year went on.

There were also several times where the Broncos needed him to come through to either go up points or stay competitive where he failed pretty miserably.

The Broncos had two chances to score late in the season opener against Jacksonville to tie the score and take the game to OT, but Orton couldn't put a drive together.

Against the Colts, the Broncos D was playing well and getting the ball back to the offense, and Orton couldn't put a drive together to put points on the board, including a drive where the Broncos were down 6-0 in the second quarter when Orton threw a pick on 3rd and 5 from the Indy 35 yard line to end a drive, which the Colts took down the field and scored on...making the game 13-0. The Broncos next posession, they finally put together a drive into the red zone, and Orton couldnt convert a 3rd and 1.

There were many of those kinds of moments last season.

Cito Pelon · 08-22-2011, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by epicSocialism4tw

I did a quick little statistical analysis on Orton's red zone abilities this morning. This is what it looks like:

Orton 2010 Red Zone Statistics

Total Red Zone Posessions: 53

Att/Comp: 30/70 --> for 42.9%

Third Down Conversions: 0/12 for 0.000%

Fourth Down Conversions: 1/4 for 25%

2-Point Conversions: 0/1 for 0.000%

Passing TD per posession 12/53 for 22.6%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

This begs the question...will Fox have the cajones to pull Orton occasionally in the red zone if he exhibits this kind of ineffectiveness this season?

You didn't include INT's, TD's, and sacks. I thought for sure you would include sacks. Let's see if you include INT's, or the lack thereof, and TD's.

epicSocialism4tw · 08-22-2011, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cito Pelon

You didn't include INT's and sacks. I thought for sure you would include sacks. Let's see if you include INT's, or the lack therof.

You should go and find and compile statistics that you want to contribute.

Jay3 · 08-22-2011, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cito Pelon

You didn't include INT's, TD's, and sacks. I thought for sure you would include sacks. Let's see if you include INT's, or the lack thereof, and TD's.

I don't think he had a red zone INT last year, so that's good. (About the same number of completions in the red zone as INT's in the red zone).

I don't think there's a way to glean when he was sacked on 3rd down in the red zone. According the splits, he was sacked 16 times on third down last year. So in addition to the low completion rate on 3rd down, 16 times a drive was killed by a 3rd down sack.

Cito Pelon · 08-22-2011, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by epicSocialism4tw

You should go and find and compile statistics that you want to contribute.

Good point. Yeah, I probably should, but I'm not gonna argue with you too much. Orton has been a middle of the road kind of QB, so I'm not gonna rag on him.

epicSocialism4tw · 08-22-2011, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cito Pelon

Good point. Yeah, I probably should, but I'm not gonna argue with you too much. Orton has been a middle of the road kind of QB, so I'm not gonna rag on him.

In the red zone it doesn't appear as though he's very effective at converting important plays.

Blueflame · 08-22-2011, 05:13 PM

It looks to me like you went to a lot of work to compile an argument that the powers-that-be will never read.... and that can make no difference whatsoever in the final decision they've already made.

08-22-2011, 03:46 PM	#1
epicSocialism4tw Tebowing the long haul all the way to the title Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: TX, USA Posts: 37,072 Adopt-a-Bronco: Champ Bailey	The Book on Orton, CH 1: Red Zone Performance I did a quick little statistical analysis on Orton's red zone abilities this morning. This is what it looks like: Orton 2010 Red Zone Statistics Total Red Zone Posessions: 53 Att/Comp: 30/70 --> for 42.9% Third Down Conversions: 0/12 for 0.000% Fourth Down Conversions: 1/4 for 25% 2-Point Conversions: 0/1 for 0.000% Passing TD per posession 12/53 for 22.6% -------------------------------------------------------------------------- This begs the question...will Fox have the cajones to pull Orton occasionally in the red zone if he exhibits this kind of ineffectiveness this season?

08-22-2011, 04:31 PM	#10
TheElusiveKyleOrton www.dailydickpunch.com @RMoneyBadger Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Steamboat Springs Posts: 9,776 Adopt-a-Bronco: "Debo" Franklin	__________________ Nobody puts Jay-bee in the corner.

08-22-2011, 04:34 PM	#13
TheElusiveKyleOrton www.dailydickpunch.com @RMoneyBadger Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Steamboat Springs Posts: 9,776 Adopt-a-Bronco: "Debo" Franklin	Did you guys know that Tebow is saving himself for Epic? True story. __________________ Nobody puts Jay-bee in the corner.

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08-22-2011, 03:51 PM	#2
BMarsh615 Ring of Famer 21’s No Champ Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,019 Adopt-a-Bronco: # 15	At least he doesn't turn the ball over in the redzone. You should have looked at how many times his team wound up with points as well. I'm not happy with him in the redzone either I was just sayin'.

08-22-2011, 04:03 PM	#4
epicSocialism4tw Tebowing the long haul all the way to the title Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: TX, USA Posts: 37,072 Adopt-a-Bronco: Champ Bailey	Orton in general on 3rd and 4th downs: Down-----comp/att-----%-----yds------TD/INT-----sacked 3rd----------60/120---50.0----670--------3/5-------16--- 4th-----------4/11----36.4------49--------1/0--------0---

08-22-2011, 04:07 PM	#5
mkporter Ring of Famer Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: San Diego Posts: 1,661 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	Redzone rushing stats (Not including Tebow): 40/66, 1.65 avg, 7 TD Tebow: 8/26, 3.2 avg, 5 TD If we can have a short yardage running game that isn't awful, than Tebow becomes less necessary. If not, he's by far the best answer (maybe the best answer anyway)

08-22-2011, 04:08 PM	#6
epicSocialism4tw Tebowing the long haul all the way to the title Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: TX, USA Posts: 37,072 Adopt-a-Bronco: Champ Bailey	Orton on 3rd and goal and 4th and goal: 3rd and goal-----0/3 4th and goal-----0/1

08-22-2011, 04:23 PM	#8
Inkana7 Ring of Famer Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 8,232 Adopt-a-Bronco: Derek Wolfe	We only had 3 3rd and Goals last year??

08-22-2011, 04:34 PM	#12
KO5K Ring of Famer Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,627 Adopt-a-Bronco: Caleb Hanie	Good God, I knew they must be bad but not that bad. The funny thing is his red-zone QBR is in the high 80s I think.

08-22-2011, 04:34 PM	#14
Liquid Courage The 4th Amigo Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Portland, OR (deported from God's Country) Posts: 383	does anyone have the time to look up what his stats are in the last 5 mins of the game when we are down? this is the drag on Orton for me .... he seems to get tunnel vision and a case of the whoopsies (fumbled snaps, slips, etc) when it really matters. That said, i'll root for him until my voice goes away day in and day out.

08-22-2011, 04:43 PM	#17
Blart I'm gay for the Broncos! Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: San Francisco Posts: 2,588 Adopt-a-Bronco: All @ same time	Imagine being on the field, watching the guy who led your team 80 yards get pulled before hitting paydirt. It's demoralizing. The steelers had little luck using slash inside the 20 in the 90's, it frustrated the entire team.

08-22-2011, 04:48 PM	#18
Broncobiv Tee many martoonis Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Tucson, AZ Posts: 2,265	What's more demoralizing for the team: watching Tebow go in and actually score the TD, or watching Orton flail about hopelessly followed by a Prater FG?

08-22-2011, 05:13 PM	#25
Blueflame Miss Congeniality Welcome to Peyton's Place Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: in my cups... lol Posts: 33,038 Adopt-a-Bronco: Randy Gradishar	It looks to me like you went to a lot of work to compile an argument that the powers-that-be will never read.... and that can make no difference whatsoever in the final decision they've already made.