Week 10 Gambling

[That One Guy]

We'll give this another try. Last year we seemed to have more gamblers around here.

Lines:
Oak @ SD (6 1/2 - 7 1/2)
Den @ KC (3)
Jax (3) @ Indy
NO @ ATL - PK
HOU (3) @ TB
Pitt (3) @ Cincy
Tenn @ Carolina (3)
Buff @ DAL (5 1/2 - 6)
STL @ CLE (1)
Wash @ Miami (3 1/2)
BALT (6 1/2 - 8) @ SEA
NYG @ SF (3 1/2)
NE @ NYJ - PK

Number indicates favorite and spread.

Initial lines that jump out to me as possibilities:

Den +3, SD -6 1/2, Jax -3, HOU -3, NYG +3, and though I probably wont take it, Cincy +3 seems unfair to them.

Anyone else seeing anything?

[vonqkilla]

I live giants moneyline, bmore to cover and I like us moneyline.

But my parlay is gmen moneyline, bmore cover.

Also, ill take the over on touches for MJD in Indy, as long as it isnt over 40 lol.

[Popps]

I don't even bet games but I went 2-0 against the spread last week on this thread, so I'll try it again.

-Buffalo getting 5.5 at Dallas
-Houston laying 3 at Tampa

Not as confident as I was last week in those, but it's the best I see.

[That One Guy]

Originally Posted by vonqkilla

I live giants moneyline, bmore to cover and I like us moneyline.

But my parlay is gmen moneyline, bmore cover.

Also, ill take the over on touches for MJD in Indy, as long as it isnt over 40 lol.

Hmm... I didn't think about taking NYG ML instead of spread. I rarely take MLs but I should as the payoff is so much better. Especially this game where the 9ers are having trouble putting up points. I don't know as much about the 9ers pass D as I'd like to so that'll probably need some research before I lock that in but ML may be the way to go there.

Balt scares me because they're inconsistent and so is Seattle. If both teams play to their potential, Balt wins easily. I just don't trust Balt to avoid laying a pile of feces.

And do you have an opinion on STL and whether they're getting better at run D? I didn't actually watch the ATL game or anything but the rush YPA wasn't what I expected it to be. If STL is still susceptible to rush, I think possibilities open with the Jax game but I just have to do some research there. If STL has fixed themselves, I could definitely see Jax doing some quirky things in the short pass department or just going to the air. They've got to learn to pass at some point and when better than against STL.

[That One Guy]

Originally Posted by Popps

I don't even bet games but I went 2-0 against the spread last week on this thread, so I'll try it again.

-Buffalo getting 5.5 at Dallas
-Houston laying 3 at Tampa

Not as confident as I was last week in those, but it's the best I see.

Buff could be a gift or a trap. Before this week, there's no way Buff gets 5.5 at Dallas. On the other hand, Buff being held to 11 by the same team that let SD get 21, Balt get 34, Oak get 34, and NE get 30 is a little concerning after the way they've been playing. I would expect that game to be an anomaly and for Buff to put up a fight in Dallas. I really think the game comes down to their ability to stop Murray. Their run D would need some research. If Austin is still out for Dallas, that doesn't hurt either.

I think Houston is underrated so I like that play. They could easily put TB down early. If Andre Johnson is back, it's even better.

[Popps]

Yea, Buffalo has had troubles stopping the run, but Dallas has secondary issues. I think it's a close game, and I don't love it. But, I could see it being decided by a FG.

I doubt Johnson plays with the bye the following week... but I agree Houston should be able to run all over them. Tampa really hasn't looked great as of late.

[That One Guy]

So I'm at the Thursday game and still haven't put any bets down. I have my leans in the first post but don't love any of them so much that I really want to jump on it. I was worried that my winning last week was just making me too cautious this week but I think the lines are just perfect and the games are evenly matched so even ML plays just don't work.

The three games I'm confident in this week are Philly winning over AZ, GB beating Minny, and Balt beating SEA. GB is a 13 point favorite so I'm not touching that, Philly/AZ spread isn't posted on the site I use, yet, and for some reason I'm weary about taking Balt to win by a TD. I expect them to win but I also expect their uber-conservative style to kick in if they're up 2 points and be content with running the ball into a wall until they absolutely need points again.

I don't have a clue why I'm second guessing Denver+3 so that really could be my only play if I'm comfortable with it again before Sunday. When they come out, maybe GB 1H if they give me a 6 or below but I wouldn't expect it. I'd expect 8 or 9 and I probably wouldn't take that. Maybe it's time to look at some O/U plays.

Tough week.

[That One Guy]

I forgot to add... I'm thinking about the Rams as underdogs to the Browns. It's a gut move but I can't substantiate it. Anyone got an opinion?

[DenverBroncosJM]

Originally Posted by That One Guy

The three games I'm confident in this week are Philly winning over AZ, GB beating Minny, and Balt beating SEA. GB is a 13 point favorite so I'm not touching that, Philly/AZ spread isn't posted on the site I use, yet, and for some reason I'm weary about taking Balt to win by a TD. I expect them to win but I also expect their uber-conservative style to kick in if they're up 2 points and be content with running the ball into a wall until they absolutely need points again.



Tough week.

I am seeing Philly -14 to much for me. GB will win but I assume Minny is just going to pound them with AP. So how much time they will have to put up a lot of points concerns me.

I am looking at the game tonight and I "think" Oakland can cover +8 but which Phyllis Rivers shows up Int Machine or Second Half of the GB game?

I think the Browns beat StL and cover. I took Denver on the ML last week and that worked out pretty well.

[SportinOne]

this is a tough week... im staying away.

[strafen]

I like:
BALT, STL, TENN
or
BALT, STL, NO

[That One Guy]

Originally Posted by DenverBroncosJM

I am seeing Philly -14 to much for me. GB will win but I assume Minny is just going to pound them with AP. So how much time they will have to put up a lot of points concerns me.

I am looking at the game tonight and I "think" Oakland can cover +8 but which Phyllis Rivers shows up Int Machine or Second Half of the GB game?

I think the Browns beat StL and cover. I took Denver on the ML last week and that worked out pretty well.

Hmm... I'm not following the Browns so well but they just seem in complete disarray.

I agree, Philly -14 is silly. No way I'd touch that.

GB/Minn I wouldn't touch the game but I might do the 1H. I did a teaser with them in it for GB -7 and didn't think that was too bad. At some point Minn will have to try to take to the air to stay in the game.

For tonight's game, I'm mostly throwing down a lot of props that I think could be 50/50.

I've got:

Chargers -1/2 1Q - I think Oak comes out trying to establish the run to alleviate some pressure from Palmer. I don't think they'll press as long as the game is within 7-10 points because if INT Palmer shows up, it'll only get worse. They can also just wait for INT Rivers to show up so no need to press. I think Chargers win the Q.

Chargers/Raiders U10 1Q - Same logic as above. I think we start out slow and after the success Denver had running against Oak last week, I think they definitely try to run when possible. This wont be a shootout and both teams play knowing that.

Chargers/Raiders U14 1/2 2Q - I just thought two TDs in a single quarter would be excess. Of course, SD could come out firing and clicking and blow the two Us out of the water early but I'm hoping that's not the case.

Chargers/Raiders U 24 1H - I won't touch the 2nd half though! As said, 1H plays slow.

Chargers -4 1/2 1H - Same thoughts as above. I think Oak presses in the 2nd half.

Raiders last score FG - I think they get FGs while everyone's playing the game slow and maybe a TD here or there. I could see Janikowski hitting 3-4 FGs. I just have to hope the score doesn't get blown open to where Oak has to stop attempting FGs.

Raiders first score FG - Same as above, really. Run games get you to 3rd down, QBs have to pick up that 3rd down eventually. I don't trust Palmer to do it enough. Lots of FGs.

First score of game FG - Same as above, really. Slow game = FGs.

Last score of game FG - Unlikely but +150 odds and if the game stays close, Oak will still be kicking them while if the game is blown out, SD could be kicking them for icing.

Passing YDs by Palmer O228 1/2 - Just a hunch. If teams are playing it slow, there could be lots of garbage yards between the 20s. ~100 yds by Palmer in the first half and I'll be content. When Oak has to start pressing in the 2nd half, he'll start picking up more.

Palmer to throw an INT before TD - I think when they start getting toward the goalline, they'll try to pound it with Bush. I also expect Palmer to throw an INT before he has to start firing too much and starts pressing for TDs.

[That One Guy]

Originally Posted by strafen

I like:
BALT, STL, TENN
or
BALT, STL, NO

Balt I like to win but that's it. I hate hoping for them to cover.

STL I agree with but I do that mostly ignorant of Cleveland's exact struggles.

TENN playing the great unknown in Carolina. I'm not a buyer in TENN and could see Carolina being able to put up some points on 'em. I'm staying away.

NO/ATL... wow, anyone willing to take a shot there has some guts. That one is like the NE/NYG game last week for me. It could literally go any direction (high scoring (42-28), lower scoring (21-17), or one team could just blow the other out) and I wouldn't be surprised.

[gyldenlove]

Baltimore @ Seattle jumps out at me, Seattle really struggles putting up points and the Ravens defense has been good, on the other hand Baltimore should be able to hang some scores on Seattle.

[That One Guy]

Originally Posted by SportinOne

this is a tough week... im staying away.

Haha... so was I but today is a study day and I don't feel like reading chemistry. My boredom drove me to putting about 25% of my money into 1H and prop bets for tonight... I'll be hoping that one doesn't backfire.

I don't expect to make it through Sunday either but I'm going to a local bar with a buddy to catch the game so I at least wont be putting bets down just to have a rooting interest like I sometimes do.

[That One Guy]

Originally Posted by gyldenlove

Baltimore @ Seattle jumps out at me, Seattle really struggles putting up points and the Ravens defense has been good, on the other hand Baltimore should be able to hang some scores on Seattle.

My issue with them is their conservative nature. If they're within 3, they're content running Ray Rice 750,000 times a game. I don't know their stat but I'd imagine their record ATS when favored by 5+ is absolutely atrocious.

This is all biased on a play with them I lost back in the day so maybe I'm just always seeing it through my flashbacks and they aren't as bad as they seem.

[TonyR]

No line for Ari @ Phi?

[That One Guy]

Originally Posted by TonyR

No line for Ari @ Phi?

I think they're waiting to see if it's Kolb or Skelton. I think 13-14 is what I'm hearing though.

[That One Guy]

Just a bit of trivia: People have been non-stop hammering Nebraska this week over Penn State. I almost did but couldn't just out of principle. When I last saw this morning (I don't usually bet college but look to see the crazy lines), it still hadn't moved from the same ~3 spread that it opened at. I don't understand how they can think the team won't be in trouble out there. Books could take a hammering here.

[That One Guy]

I read something interesting today regarding parlays. I'm not ready to concede them (or even concede that they're for suckers) but I was, for some reason, under the impression that the payout was slightly increased for bundling the picks together. In reality, if you are parlaying a sequence and can actually take your winnings from the first game and bet everything on the second, you'll get more. I had it backwards and I can't even begin to estimate how many parlays I've done in the past.

So, there ya go. That is apparently why I've always heard that if you're in position to hedge a parlay, you did it wrong. Learn something new everyday.

[DenverBroncosJM]

Im really struggling with the Oakland game. If they can pressure Rivers and score first I think they can win.

[That One Guy]

Originally Posted by DenverBroncosJM

Im really struggling with the Oakland game. If they can pressure Rivers and score first I think they can win.

I think they have relatively comparable defenses (Points allowed almost equal, Raiders slightly better at pass D but slightly worse at run D) but I'll take the SD O over the Raiders O when things come down to crunch time. If SD is leading and forcing Oakland to try to hang some points, I think Oakland fails. If Oakland is leading and forces SD to try to hang some points, SD does so. I just don't see Oakland winning this one. The X factor they'd need is something like McFadden and he's out. I just don't see Oakland taking it.

Now, when the spread comes into consideration...

[That One Guy]

Well... hell.

Looks like Mcclain will be back for Oakland while Huff (and the rest of the secondary) are still out. This could get ugly for those of us (me) thinking this would be a low scoring game. Rivers could lay down a beating.

[vonqkilla]

People are talking about gmen injuries, all I know is ciughlin is gonne stuff run and force smith to beat him. So i like gmen and bmore to cover seat, a horrible team.

Broncos I like, but tebow objectively is to tough to project, wtf he will do. Espn says we have only 35% chance of winning, and yet 75% if mcgahee gets 75 and teebs 50 yrds rushing. Thats a given.

I like us to win given the improvement from TT. Soooo hard to be objective.

3 team, broncos ml on def vs bowe champ makes plays, and tebow gets us a 20 to 19 win.

Gmen win straight up, sf luck runs out (det blew it), & bmore crushes igsignificant seachickens. My bad on spelling, usmc bday,

[TheReverend]

I took:

11/10/2011 @ 05:20 PM	NFL	[108] SAN DIEGO -7-115
11/13/2011 @ 10:00 AM	NFL	[217] PITTSBURGH -3-120
11/13/2011 @ 10:00 AM	NFL	[219] DENVER +3EV
11/13/2011 @ 10:00 AM	NFL	[221] JACKSONVILLE -3-115
11/13/2011 @ 10:00 AM	NFL	[224] DALLAS -5½-110
11/13/2011 @ 10:00 AM	NFL	[225] HOUSTON -3-125
11/13/2011 @ 10:00 AM	NFL	[228] CAROLINA -3½-110
11/13/2011 @ 10:00 AM	NFL	[229] WASHINGTON +4-110
11/13/2011 @ 10:00 AM	NFL	[231] NEW ORLEANS PK-110
11/13/2011 @ 01:15 PM	NFL	[234] CHICAGO -3EV
11/13/2011 @ 10:00 AM	NFL	[236] CLEVELAND -3EV
11/13/2011 @ 01:05 PM	NFL	[239] BALTIMORE -6½-110
11/13/2011 @ 01:15 PM	NFL	[241] NY GIANTS +3½-115
11/13/2011 @ 05:30 PM	NFL	[243] NEW ENGLAND +2-110
11/14/2011 @ 05:35 PM	NFL	[246] GREEN BAY -13-110