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Old 04-11-2011, 11:03 AM   #1
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from rotoworld.com. Look at the 2 disappointments/busts they choose to list here...


According to Football Outsiders' "SackSEER" formula, Texas A&M OLB Von Miller clearly projects as the top pass rusher in the 2011 draft.

The SackSEER has previously projected high NFL sack rates for Shawne Merriman and Mario Williams, and disappointments/busts like Jarvis Moss and Robert Ayers. The system takes into account per-game college sack rates and athletic measurables. For Miller, SackSEER projects 36.4 sacks in the first four seasons for an average of 9.1 annually. Justin Houston comes in a relatively distant second with 6.5 per year. Ryan Kerrigan is third at 6.2.
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Old 04-11-2011, 11:16 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by MABroncoFan View Post
from rotoworld.com. Look at the 2 disappointments/busts they choose to list here...


According to Football Outsiders' "SackSEER" formula, Texas A&M OLB Von Miller clearly projects as the top pass rusher in the 2011 draft.

The SackSEER has previously projected high NFL sack rates for Shawne Merriman and Mario Williams, and disappointments/busts like Jarvis Moss and Robert Ayers. The system takes into account per-game college sack rates and athletic measurables. For Miller, SackSEER projects 36.4 sacks in the first four seasons for an average of 9.1 annually. Justin Houston comes in a relatively distant second with 6.5 per year. Ryan Kerrigan is third at 6.2.
bummer about Moss and Ayers...
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Old 04-11-2011, 11:24 AM   #3
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Ayers will be fine this year. The guy was injured and playing out of position the last two years and was still getting decent pressure on the QB. He just wasn't getting the actual sack with any regularity.

No arguing Moss though.
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Old 04-11-2011, 11:26 AM   #4
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There is still hope for Ayers but Moss plain out sucks for his draft status. Von Miller keeps climbing the board. Two months ago, barely on our radar....at least at the Mane.
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Old 04-11-2011, 11:28 AM   #5
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I think Ayers is going to be a beast this year... I think he's going to be an all around End that gets a lot of sacks from Dumervil's pressure opposite him.
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Old 04-11-2011, 11:31 AM   #6
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Ayers didnt even get sacks in college, not sure why people think he'll be a sackmaster on the pro level. I think Miller will be though
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Old 04-11-2011, 11:42 AM   #7
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Ayers didnt even get sacks in college, not sure why people think he'll be a sackmaster on the pro level. I think Miller will be though
I don't think anyone really thinks he'll be a sackmaster, but he does know how to make plays in the backfield. For what it's worth, he led the SEC in tackles for loss his senior year.
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Old 04-11-2011, 11:45 AM   #8
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Cool, is that assuming he's plugged into a 3-4 at OLB?
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Old 04-11-2011, 11:47 AM   #9
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Cool, is that assuming he's plugged into a 3-4 at OLB?
Considering Denver will be going with a 4-3, he'd have to be traded away for that to happen.
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Old 04-11-2011, 11:57 AM   #10
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I thought Ayers was playing well before getting hurt last year. Don't know if he'll ever be a big sack guy, but I think he'll take a leap forward going back to his natural DE position this year.

Dareus is the logical pick for us at 2, but Miller is intriguing with his great pass rush ability. Would be nice to pair him up with Doom on passing downs, coming from both sides of the QB. Plus we could plug him in at SLB.

We could get 1 or 2 solid DTs in the 2nd or 3rd round (not Dareus caliber, but still good), but we wouldn't be able to get a pass rusher like Miller.
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Old 04-11-2011, 11:58 AM   #11
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Considering Denver will be going with a 4-3, he'd have to be traded away for that to happen.
Kinda what I'm getting at. This stat is neat, but may not be relevant to us.
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Old 04-11-2011, 12:10 PM   #12
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Good news about switching back to a 4-3 is that Ayers should do better, but Doom may come back down to earth on his sacks. That's ok if between the 2 of them they can both get double digit sacks.
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Old 04-11-2011, 12:13 PM   #13
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Ayers didnt even get sacks in college, not sure why people think he'll be a sackmaster on the pro level. I think Miller will be though
No ****. Never thought he was going to be a huge sack guy, and while he hasn't been flashy, he's been solid.
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Old 04-11-2011, 12:23 PM   #14
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Kinda what I'm getting at. This stat is neat, but may not be relevant to us.
For the 1,000,000,000 time: If Miller is drafted by the broncos, he will not be used as a traditional 4-3 Sam. He will be used in many different situations.
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Old 04-11-2011, 12:32 PM   #15
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I thought this thread would be about the meat peeker. I'm unsure why I'm disappointed that it's not.
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Old 04-11-2011, 12:36 PM   #16
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I thought this thread would be about the meat peeker. I'm unsure why I'm disappointed that it's not.
oh, you're looking for this guy, errr thread



http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=97696

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Old 04-11-2011, 01:12 PM   #17
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For the 1,000,000,000 time: If Miller is drafted by the broncos, he will not be used as a traditional 4-3 Sam. He will be used in many different situations.
Oh snap I didn't know we had a mole on the inside! What else you got?
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Old 04-11-2011, 01:32 PM   #18
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Ayers didnt even get sacks in college, not sure why people think he'll be a sackmaster on the pro level. I think Miller will be though
I don't think he will, but I don't think he's a "bust" either. He was projected as a guy with a low ceiling but a really high floor. He's solid in the run and can get pressure. I know people think he was supposed to be Reggie White (not you, obviously) but that's never what I expected from him.
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Old 04-11-2011, 01:50 PM   #19
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With John Fox being one of the better defensive minds in the league, I could see him using Miller the same way that Derrick Thomas and Lawrence Taylor were used in a 3-4. Miller comes off the edge with the same speed and balance that Thomas did.
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Old 04-11-2011, 01:59 PM   #20
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If you're building an NFL team, you start with a quarterback, a left tackle on offense and an edge pass rusher. That's how important pass rushers are in today's NFL.

"I'd say that's true," said John Elway, the Broncos' executive vice president of football operations. "A quarterback, far and away, is the most important. (Then) a left tackle and then a pass rusher, maybe a top corner, tied with pass rusher."

While some teams can get their middle linebacker involved in the pass rush, Miller's biggest impact on a game would come from an outside position ó most likely as an outside linebacker in a 4-3 alignment who could even line up in a three-point stance as a defensive end when a team went to a nickel (five defensive backs) or dime (six defensive backs) package.

Miller played defensive end most of his career at Texas A&M. But he lined up at weakside outside linebacker in a 4-3 alignment most of the time during the week of practices leading up to the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala., last month. Against some of the best pass blockers in this draft, the 6-foot-2, 237-pound Miller displayed quality pass-rush skills. He also showed good movement and pursuit of the ball against the run.

Miller fits the profile of a linebacker in John Fox's defense, and new coordinator Dennis Allen wants speed everywhere on Denver's defense.

Read more: Q&A: Broncos should consider drafting A&M's Von Miller - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci...#ixzz1JFaCxncC
Read The Denver Post's Terms of Use of its content: http://www.denverpost.com/termsofuse
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Old 04-11-2011, 02:10 PM   #21
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Here's a rather long post about how Miller could be used as a Bronco from RodneyA @ MHR. I don't agree with everything here but he makes some good points as to utilizing Doom, Miller & Ayers.

http://www.milehighreport.com/2011/4...tzing-oximoron

I think he makes his case best in the comments section rather than the actual 'article'........

Quote:
First is the issue of needs. Some people donít want to spend a high pick on a DE while already having two solid DEs to start, but nearly everyone will still agree that we canít make the same mistake of having all our pass rushing eggs in one basket again. Dumervilís injury Doomed our season, and we canít allow ourselves to repeat past mistakes. Plus, in this system, he alone, isnít nearly enough anyway. Not in this system. Then we have a need at SAM. There isnít a single person on the roster thatís remotely likely to play that position. Thatís two needs. And MIller can fill them both with one pick. With limited resources, that bumps his value quite a lot.

Secondly, the strength of this draft is at DT in the 2nd round. No need to explain that one.

What Miller gives us here, is a prospect that projects to fill two needs for us Ė a starting SAM and an additional pass rusher. We will use him in the zone blitz, IMO, a whole lot more than you give credit for, but even if you only think heíd be good for 5-7 sacksÖ then he still filled two needs. We no longer have to draft an early DE (not saying we donít need one more anyway, but the need drops down to manageable rather than crisis), and we now have our starting SAM.

This means that by the end of the 2nd round, our strategy says itís more likely than not that weíll have filled our need for pass rusher, SAM, DT and DT. Thatís probably our five biggest needs. And it plays to the strength of the draft.

So with that strategy, the question becomes, CAN Miller really fill that need of pass rusher? I say yes. Others say no. Weíre not the first to try it, though. Brian Orakpo is a good recent example. And our team is way better setup to use the zone blitz, which I believe will be his bread and butter.

And the last thing about Miller is that he truly epitomizes everything The Johns say theyíre looking for in a football player. Everything. He comes from a family with money, and isnít likely looking for a payday. Heís had multiple years of domination. Heís a team player above all else. Heís blazing fast, high work ethic, no flags, passionate and absolutely loves the game. Heís had about four different kinds of visits so far. My guess is that theyíre trying to rack his brain to see if he understands defenses well enough to eventually QB ours.
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Old 04-11-2011, 03:12 PM   #22
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I don't think he will, but I don't think he's a "bust" either. He was projected as a guy with a low ceiling but a really high floor. He's solid in the run and can get pressure. I know people think he was supposed to be Reggie White (not you, obviously) but that's never what I expected from him.
I think a lot of what expectations are for him are due to Mayock calling him the potential best defensive player in the draft...
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Old 04-11-2011, 05:28 PM   #23
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I think a lot of what expectations are for him are due to Mayock calling him the potential best defensive player in the draft...
*in 3 years. thats this year.
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Old 04-11-2011, 06:07 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaylore View Post
I don't think he will, but I don't think he's a "bust" either. He was projected as a guy with a low ceiling but a really high floor. He's solid in the run and can get pressure. I know people think he was supposed to be Reggie White (not you, obviously) but that's never what I expected from him.
I felt he was pretty poor against the run and in pass rush last year. Did NOT like what I saw from Ayers, and I really like him. Then again, I also feel like a 3-4 is him playing out of position, so I'm pretty damn optimistic about him this coming season.

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*in 3 years. thats this year.
Mayock has gone full retard over the past few years. I've lost a HUGE amount of respect for him since his peak in 2006.
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Old 04-11-2011, 06:09 PM   #25
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Kinda what I'm getting at. This stat is neat, but may not be relevant to us.


But his TFL leading season was in a 4-3
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