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Old 04-02-2011, 03:09 AM   #1
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Default A good take on why Denver should pick Fairley over Dareus

I will post the conclusion but you really need to click the link to hear the bulk of the argument.

http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/bron...rime-or-choice

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Conclusion

When you look at the issue historically, itís generally been easier to find top nose tackle material than it is to find elite undertackles. When people talk about the question of Dareus vs. Fairley, the conversation often lacks a recognition that the two players are likely to play different positions. Fairleyís play reminds me of Warren Sapp - Sapp also tended to play high, especially later in his career. He was nearly unstoppable when he kept his pad level low, and thatís about what I see in Fairley. Fairley isnít at Sappís level yet, and I donít think that heís ďthis yearís ÖĒ, but there are similarities in their play. Sapp had some maturity issues when he came out, but it didnít stop Tampa Bay from taking him, and it shouldnít stop Denver from taking Fairley.

For those of you who prefer Dareus to Fairley, youíll be getting equal time shortly, since Iím putting togeter Talegating pieces on both players and Iíll post one on Dareus soon. I think that Fairley is the better pick and Iíve said why, but Iíve also been a fan of Dareus for the past several months. Head to head, and taking Denverís specific needs into account, Iíd take Fairley, but theyíre both solid players who would contribute quickly to the Broncos' defense. Ranked in order, Iíd put it as a tie between Fairley and Miller at the top - both are elite players in their own right, but Miller is probably more NFL-ready. Dareus will be a solid player, even a top player, but he doesnít have the kind of upside that Fairley or Miller does. Peterson isnít the right player at the right time - itís as easy as that. Heís also an elite talent, but the other two at that level fill roles that Denver needs more immediately.
After reading the entire article is anybody rethinking their stance on the whole Fairley-Dareus-Miller-Peterson debate?

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Old 04-02-2011, 05:49 AM   #2
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At this point, I'd almost rather trade out of the #2 and get more picks. There is no sure fire prospect at the top of this draft. In fact, this seems like one of the worst years ever to be in the top 5. There are big questions on everyone, and no stand outs. Why give any of these guys 50-60 million?
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Old 04-02-2011, 06:25 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by Jesterhole View Post
At this point, I'd almost rather trade out of the #2 and get more picks. There is no sure fire prospect at the top of this draft. In fact, this seems like one of the worst years ever to be in the top 5. There are big questions on everyone, and no stand outs. Why give any of these guys 50-60 million?
Well hopefully the new CBA will save us from giving those guys that amount of money.
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Old 04-02-2011, 06:33 AM   #4
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After reading the entire article is anybody rethinking their stance on the whole Fairley-Dareus-Miller-Peterson debate?
No, but I would if I didn't already rank them Fairley-Dareus-Peterson.

I think there's some poor-mouthing of Fairley going on hopes that he falls.

Start with the guys who dominated in college against good competition, then look at size and measurables. Fairley has it all.
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Old 04-02-2011, 07:03 AM   #5
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I had a dream last night that the Broncos traded back to #5 and took Von Miller.
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Old 04-02-2011, 07:05 AM   #6
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It isn't a good argument at all. I've read and heard numerous places that Fairley isn't even registering in the top ten on team boards. Dareus is the better player. Anybody who watched college football this season knows that. Anybody who respects versatility and what a player can do for a defense knows that too.
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Old 04-02-2011, 08:17 AM   #7
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Nope didn't change my mind that this team should stay away from the one year wonder Farely
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Old 04-02-2011, 08:27 AM   #8
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Dareus is the cornerstone that we could the future of the Denver Bronco's defense upon.
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Old 04-02-2011, 09:03 AM   #9
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This place is gonna crash if Denver can't trade out of #2 and takes Fairley with the pick. I'll be fine with the pick by the way.
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Old 04-02-2011, 10:48 AM   #10
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Gabbert or Newton is who Denver is picking
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Old 04-02-2011, 11:10 AM   #11
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Holy shyte.
This place will melt down worse then ***ishma if Denver pick a QB.
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Old 04-02-2011, 11:21 AM   #12
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I agree with the article. I think Fairley is the closest thing to Sapp we've seen since Sapp himself. I like his raw potential much more than Dareus. I like Dareus too, but of the two, I think Fairley has the highest ceiling.
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Old 04-02-2011, 11:49 AM   #13
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I agree with the article. I think Fairley is the closest thing to Sapp we've seen since Sapp himself. I like his raw potential much more than Dareus. I like Dareus too, but of the two, I think Fairley has the highest ceiling.
Fairly has the highest ceiling of the defensive tackles von miller has a high ceiling in general. Marcell has the highest floor.
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Old 04-02-2011, 11:59 AM   #14
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Fairly has the highest ceiling of the defensive tackles
Liuget will be better than both.
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Old 04-02-2011, 12:11 PM   #15
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I like Liuget better better than Fairley as well, especially from a value standpoint.

My DL list goes as follows: Dareus, Jordan, Liuget, Watt and then Fairley.

I'll be stoked if we can get Dareus or Peterson at #2.

I truly think that Denver's best plan of action is to do that and then trade back up into the first round to get another one of their top DL players. Either way, they are in position to address every phase of defense with their first four selections. If a trade down happens, they are in even better position.

There is almost zero chance this draft sucks. We'd have to blow it.
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Old 04-02-2011, 01:30 PM   #16
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I agree with the article. I think Fairley is the closest thing to Sapp we've seen since Sapp himself. I like his raw potential much more than Dareus. I like Dareus too, but of the two, I think Fairley has the highest ceiling.
And the highest bust potential of the top 5-6 guys imo
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Old 04-02-2011, 01:41 PM   #17
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I like Liuget better better than Fairley as well, especially from a value standpoint.

My DL list goes as follows: Dareus, Jordan, Liuget, Watt and then Fairley.

I'll be stoked if we can get Dareus or Peterson at #2.

I truly think that Denver's best plan of action is to do that and then trade back up into the first round to get another one of their top DL players. Either way, they are in position to address every phase of defense with their first four selections. If a trade down happens, they are in even better position.

There is almost zero chance this draft sucks. We'd have to blow it.
We have too many needs and too few picks to trade up, particularly to get back into the first.
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Old 04-02-2011, 02:27 PM   #18
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We have too many needs and too few picks to trade up, particularly to get back into the first.
I don't agree with this at all.

My preference would be to first trade back, and then back in ala last year but even if they keep the #2 pick it's shortsighted to rule out a trade back into the first scenario.

Let's keep using Liuget as an example.....If the Rams don't take him 14 there's a very real possibility he could slip to the late 20's because the other logical 4-3 teams have other pressing needs.

If a guy like that is on the board when NE is on the clock at #28, I'd have no problem whatsoever offering NE #46 & #67. If the top tier OL are gone, Liuget won't make it past the Bears at #29.

Depending on how things fall.....

#2 / #28 / #36 > #2 / #36 / #46 / #67

At the end of the day, you are still getting 3 players out of 3 rounds, just like most teams, most years. But you are getting 3 players out of the first 36 taken.
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Old 04-02-2011, 03:33 PM   #19
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I don't agree with this at all.

My preference would be to first trade back, and then back in ala last year but even if they keep the #2 pick it's shortsighted to rule out a trade back into the first scenario.

Let's keep using Liuget as an example.....If the Rams don't take him 14 there's a very real possibility he could slip to the late 20's because the other logical 4-3 teams have other pressing needs.

If a guy like that is on the board when NE is on the clock at #28, I'd have no problem whatsoever offering NE #46 & #67. If the top tier OL are gone, Liuget won't make it past the Bears at #29.

Depending on how things fall.....

#2 / #28 / #36 > #2 / #36 / #46 / #67

At the end of the day, you are still getting 3 players out of 3 rounds, just like most teams, most years. But you are getting 3 players out of the first 36 taken.
If we had fewer needs, or more picks, I could buy your reasoning. But, we simply do not have the picks in the later rounds this year and too many holes in our roster. Last year, we had more picks to work with and accumulated more by moving back a couple times. I do agree with moving back some in this draft to accumulate more picks but my preference would not be to then use those picks to move back up. I would also prefer we stay in the top 5 if we move back to assure we get an elite defensive player. If you really wanted to target a guy like Liuget, you could move back out of the top 10 and accumulate a couple of premium picks in exchange. I don't see him getting out of the teens in this draft. In short, I believe we should move back to accumulate more picks and not defeat that purpose by trading back up.
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Old 04-02-2011, 06:30 PM   #20
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If (and it's a big if) the owners dont agree to player movement prior to the draft I can see someone trading up with us to take the QB that the Panthers dont select to get ahead of Buffalo, Cincy and Arizona.
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Old 04-02-2011, 06:37 PM   #21
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This article represents way too many scouting fallacies for me:

1. A Speed penetrating UT has more "potential" , "talent", or "upside" than a more complete UT. What that player really has, is the ability to gain the third step in the one on one dual with OG's. Consistently winning that third step will give a player great leverage on the Gap he is playing in both the run and in the pass games. A player who can consistently earn that advantage will change the blocking scheme of teams playing against him and create opportunities for the other talent around him to make plays. And, he will capitalize on one on one opportunities when he does get the chance.

2. However, if that player lacks the ability to take the speed to power on the inside and have counter moves to that speed move, he will be limited in his affectiveness at the next level no matter how quick and explosive he is. If he can not hold the POA on running plays where they double or combination block him, he loses the ability to be an every down DT and is relegated to a specialist pass rusher role.

3. That is exactly where a player like Fairley is right now. He has poor lower body power and if he does not win the third step battle with a OG or OT he gets washed out of plays completely on film. The article makes a huge assumption on this kind of player being able to be "coached up" to play the run and have the ability to be diverse in his pass rush eventually. Never Assume a player will be able to be coached up into anything when you are drafting "Elite Level Talent".

4. The projected position he has for Dareus is simply an asssumption. There is no doubt that Fairley is a pure one gap pentrating UT. However, he classifies Dareus as a NT in Fox's 4-3 front. I am assuming he never saw a player named Kris Jenkins play UT for Fox. Jenkins was not a speed and penetration only DT, like Fairley is coming out. He was a complete DT. That is the comparison I have on Dareus as I watch him play. He can beat you with speed or power and destroyed one on one matchups inside.

The only reason he may not appear to be as explosive as Fairley on tape this year was the totally different assignments they drew in college. When Dareus was given the go to penetrate on passing downs inside in the nickel he was just as dominant as Fairley when he saw a one on one situation. The problem is Dareus was doubled twice as much as Fairley and was playing on a bad ankle for over half the season. He also had half his snaps in a two gap read assignment versus a single gap attack assignment. Dareus is explosive with both speed and power and Fairley is only speed at this point.

5. The Complete player Lacks the upside of the Quickness Under Tackle. Flat out hogwash. The complete player has less to get to Elite overall than the one trick pony player. The NFL does not have many complete DT's, but it has a bunch of specialty players who are not able to impact more than one facet of a game. The upside is that a complete player has no holes to exploit, no gaps in his game to gameplan, and can just as easily beat you with penetration or power. In most circumstances, the complete player will become an Elite player more often than the "Potential" prospect.

6. Finally, the mentality of one gap penetrating players is not the same as a complete player. The complete player will do whatever role is required to win, including playing the run every snap. The one gap player will not be able to do more than what they want to do which is penetrate and cause havoc. In most cases, they never develop mentally past their unique quickness skill. They may be able to make something special out of it, or they may be the next Tommie Harris, Gerard Warren, Amobi Okoye, or Johnathon Sullivan. However, their track record is not good at becoming the next Warren Sapp.

In short, I agree with a lot of what they say, but I think the article misses on the real nuances of the DT in today's NFL. I think their analysis is way off for the above reasons. Fairley versus Dareus is a lot more than what they try and isolate it to be.
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Old 04-02-2011, 07:01 PM   #22
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you can't really justify Fairley at #2. so if Miller or Fairley is the guy you want then you need to trade back, grab more picks and take them at #5 or lower.
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Old 04-02-2011, 07:30 PM   #23
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I had a dream last night that the Broncos traded back to #5 and took Von Miller.
This.

But all this pre draft hype has Miller as the second best talent in the draft now though, so he may not make it to 5. Newton and Gabbert are both likely to be gone in the top 3, but Miller could still be taken before 5. I'm okay with Miller at 2.
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Old 04-02-2011, 08:18 PM   #24
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This.

But all this pre draft hype has Miller as the second best talent in the draft now though, so he may not make it to 5. Newton and Gabbert are both likely to be gone in the top 3, but Miller could still be taken before 5. I'm okay with Miller at 2.
Would never take Miller over Peterson or Darues or Fairley at #2. Never.
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Old 04-02-2011, 08:39 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Mediator12 View Post
This article represents way too many scouting fallacies for me:

1. A Speed penetrating UT has more "potential" , "talent", or "upside" than a more complete UT. What that player really has, is the ability to gain the third step in the one on one dual with OG's. Consistently winning that third step will give a player great leverage on the Gap he is playing in both the run and in the pass games. A player who can consistently earn that advantage will change the blocking scheme of teams playing against him and create opportunities for the other talent around him to make plays. And, he will capitalize on one on one opportunities when he does get the chance.

2. However, if that player lacks the ability to take the speed to power on the inside and have counter moves to that speed move, he will be limited in his affectiveness at the next level no matter how quick and explosive he is. If he can not hold the POA on running plays where they double or combination block him, he loses the ability to be an every down DT and is relegated to a specialist pass rusher role.

3. That is exactly where a player like Fairley is right now. He has poor lower body power and if he does not win the third step battle with a OG or OT he gets washed out of plays completely on film. The article makes a huge assumption on this kind of player being able to be "coached up" to play the run and have the ability to be diverse in his pass rush eventually. Never Assume a player will be able to be coached up into anything when you are drafting "Elite Level Talent".

4. The projected position he has for Dareus is simply an asssumption. There is no doubt that Fairley is a pure one gap pentrating UT. However, he classifies Dareus as a NT in Fox's 4-3 front. I am assuming he never saw a player named Kris Jenkins play UT for Fox. Jenkins was not a speed and penetration only DT, like Fairley is coming out. He was a complete DT. That is the comparison I have on Dareus as I watch him play. He can beat you with speed or power and destroyed one on one matchups inside.

The only reason he may not appear to be as explosive as Fairley on tape this year was the totally different assignments they drew in college. When Dareus was given the go to penetrate on passing downs inside in the nickel he was just as dominant as Fairley when he saw a one on one situation. The problem is Dareus was doubled twice as much as Fairley and was playing on a bad ankle for over half the season. He also had half his snaps in a two gap read assignment versus a single gap attack assignment. Dareus is explosive with both speed and power and Fairley is only speed at this point.

5. The Complete player Lacks the upside of the Quickness Under Tackle. Flat out hogwash. The complete player has less to get to Elite overall than the one trick pony player. The NFL does not have many complete DT's, but it has a bunch of specialty players who are not able to impact more than one facet of a game. The upside is that a complete player has no holes to exploit, no gaps in his game to gameplan, and can just as easily beat you with penetration or power. In most circumstances, the complete player will become an Elite player more often than the "Potential" prospect.

6. Finally, the mentality of one gap penetrating players is not the same as a complete player. The complete player will do whatever role is required to win, including playing the run every snap. The one gap player will not be able to do more than what they want to do which is penetrate and cause havoc. In most cases, they never develop mentally past their unique quickness skill. They may be able to make something special out of it, or they may be the next Tommie Harris, Gerard Warren, Amobi Okoye, or Johnathon Sullivan. However, their track record is not good at becoming the next Warren Sapp.

In short, I agree with a lot of what they say, but I think the article misses on the real nuances of the DT in today's NFL. I think their analysis is way off for the above reasons. Fairley versus Dareus is a lot more than what they try and isolate it to be.
this is why I love your posts.....
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