|02-26-2011, 10:34 PM||#1|
Poll #2 - Arab Revolution
Tunisia, Egypt and Libya have all ousted their dictators, though Gaddafi is still organizing mercinaries in a futile attempt to regain the capital. But many other countries are in the process of revolution or reform. My opinion in order from most likely to least.
Yemen: It blew up and now just a matter of time before Saleh steps down. Tens of thousands protesting in the citiy while a hundred thousand held prayer in unison in the mountains.
Iraq: Though efforts are being made to restrict movement and prevent large demonstrations by closing roads and bridges, peaceful and violent revolts are sparking all across Iraq. With a terminaly corrupt government, population divided among sects, have/have nots and security forces, including civilian mercinaries, with no regard for life, bloddy revolution is now inevitable.
Tunisia redux: The new government is a rehash of the one overthrown by the people and reform has been minimal and delayed. The people have started fresh demostrations and the government has responded with violence. Unless the new government rapidly responds to calls for reform, it will be overthrown in short order.
Reform that could spark-
Bahrain: The king has released hundreds of political prisoners and dropped charges against opposition leaders, allowing them to return. Violent crack-downs on protestors hasn't happened lately, but the damage appears done. A hundred thousand people in a city of 500k amassed at a recent protest. If the king doesn't resign quickly, this could reignite.
Egypt redux: Protestors have started to return in small numbers to make it clear, as in Tunisia, that a new face on the same old will not do. There has been some conflict between police and demonstrators. This is a simmer right now, but should be watched.
Algeria: This movement has been largely politically organized and the government has responded to small protests with overpowering numbers. Both largely preventing the situation from escalating. There has already been reform, and it will likely continue, but unlikely to see revolution.
Jordon: No violence lately, only ongoing peaceful demonstrations. The king is a reformer that has already taken many steps. This is likely stable.
Morocco: Same situation as Jordan, except the people want a change to democracy. Mostly stable with only a few minor clashes between protestors and police.
Last edited by Boomhauer; 02-26-2011 at 10:36 PM..
|02-27-2011, 02:58 PM||#3|
From France24 News (their version of BBC)
Yemen: Following mass demonstrations, Yemen's two largest tribes joined the protest movement. The president has said he will not seek re-election in 2013 and reforms will begin soon.
Tunisia: Prime Minister Ghannouchi has resigned. He's held the post for the last 11 yrs and took control of Tunisia once President Ben Ali was ousted. Elections are set for July and 84yr old Caid-Essebsi, who has served under Ben Ali and his predecessor in the past, will be interm leader until then.
Bahrain: King reshuffled cabinet by replacing five members with insiders from other posts in an attempt to appease protests. Attempts are being made to start dialogue between the regime and opposition, including the 18 members of parliment that quit earlier, but other opposition groups say resignation of the king is a prerequisite of talks.
Last edited by Boomhauer; 02-27-2011 at 03:06 PM..
|02-27-2011, 03:41 PM||#4|
lost in the ether
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: The 'cuse
Who says any of those nations will taste liberty?
|02-27-2011, 04:07 PM||#5|
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Fort Collins