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Old 01-28-2011, 07:52 AM   #1
Dedhed
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Default Positional Draft Value Pyramid

I came across this "Positional Value Pyramid" on my favorite draft site. It divides all positions into 6 tiers of value, and has detailed breakdowns of each position within each tier and why it's ranked in that tier.

The criteria used to set the draft value pyramid is:
1. Scarcity: How tough is it to find this position? Are they relatively easy to get in free agency and the NFL Draft, or is this the type of position that is highly sought over on Draft Day and very tough to get in Round 2 (think quarterbacks, left tackles and right defensive ends). For scarcity, a very rare position would get a "3" and a dime-a-dozen position would get a "1". The reason for this is that a position that is hard to find has more value since it is rare - think of it like supply and demand. Little supply leads to greater demand, which leads to more positional value.

2. Effectiveness: I had some trouble coming up with a way to define this attribute, but basically it is how valuable is this position to a team winning and losing. I will often refer to a position as being a "low 2" or a "high 2" to distinguish between ratings slightly and make it known when I feel like a position needs more or less than its just due.

3. Money: Some positions cost more than others, and I think this impacts a position's value. I definitely think while quarterbacks are the highest paid position in the game, they get one of the best returns on their investments since they sell jerseys, merchandise and tickets, and get more publicity than any other positions, but here we are just focusing on how much each position costs rather than weighing the ROI (return on investment) of each position, which sounds like a great idea for you economic majors looking for a great idea on next year's thesis you have to write. Expensive positions received a "1" and cheaper positions received a "3" - the cheapness leads to better value and ties up less of the salary cap. Hey, if you want Peyton Manning, he is going to cost a ton of money, but remember I am not weighing in the ROI here.

4. Durability. Some positions lead to shorter careers and more injuries, while come positions have longer careers. Positions with poor durability received a "1" and positions with great durability have a "3".


The tiers are as followed.

Tier 1- Quarterbacks-http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier1.php

Tier 2- Left Tackles, Right Defensive Ends, Cornerbacks, Rush Linebackers
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier2.php

Tier 3-Defensive Tackles, #1 Wide Receivers
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier3.php

Tier 4-Safeties, Nose Tackles, Left Ends, 4-3 Inside Linebackers, RBs, and RTs
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier4_1.php
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier4_2.php

Tier 5- #2 WRs, 3-4 DEs, Weakside LBs, 3-4 ILBs, Interior OL, TE, and #3WR
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier5_1.php
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier5_2.php

Tier 6- Strongside LBs, Kickers, and Punters
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier6.php

Last edited by Dedhed; 01-28-2011 at 08:09 AM..
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Old 01-28-2011, 08:02 AM   #2
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How do I edit the thread title?
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Old 01-28-2011, 08:04 AM   #3
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Select Edit, then select "Go Advanced" and then edit and save.
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Old 01-28-2011, 08:10 AM   #4
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Select Edit, then select "Go Advanced" and then edit and save.
Thanks
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Old 01-28-2011, 08:11 AM   #5
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sooo... we should draft peterson
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Old 01-28-2011, 08:15 AM   #6
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Wow that's a great article, makes good sense. Surprised to see corners so high though. Maybe they are assuming a team has an NFL calibre defense already in place?
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Old 01-28-2011, 08:29 AM   #7
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Wow that's a great article, makes good sense. Surprised to see corners so high though. Maybe they are assuming a team has an NFL calibre defense already in place?
I don't think the article assumes anything, really, it's outlining why positions are to be valued.

It goes into great detail on each position individually and why it's valued where it is.
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Old 01-28-2011, 08:32 AM   #8
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Wow that's a great article, makes good sense. Surprised to see corners so high though. Maybe they are assuming a team has an NFL calibre defense already in place?


This pyramid is based on BPA.
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Old 01-28-2011, 08:42 AM   #9
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So basically if Peterson is there at the #2 and the Broncos can't trade down, they have to take him, according to this analysis.
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Old 01-28-2011, 08:53 AM   #10
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So basically if Peterson is there at the #2 and the Broncos can't trade down, they have to take him, according to this analysis.
I don't think it says they have to take him. It suggests that he's the player who would likely have the most impact over the course of his career, and have the best value.

If you used the pyramid, we would skip tier 1.

Tier 2 we would look for CB, Right DE, CC, Rush LB. Of those positions, Peterson is very clearly the best player available.
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Old 01-28-2011, 08:55 AM   #11
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This pyramid is based on BPA.
I don't see it that way. I would be more apt to base BPA analysis on this pyramid.
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Old 01-28-2011, 09:03 AM   #12
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So basically if Peterson is there at the #2 and the Broncos can't trade down, they have to take him, according to this analysis.
You could also argue that Peterson would only be our #2 CB (assuming Champ returns). While he may be able to shut down his side of the field does shutting down a #2 WR make him as valuable as a #1 CB who shuts down the opponent's top guy?

Also consistently throughout the analysis there is a common theme that rushing the passer is key to any good defense. If you can't do that it doesn't matter who your CB's are. RDE is the key position for rushing the passer and we are set there, but we have no support for our RDE as he is basically our only pass rusher (Ayers still unproven) and the only guy on the line that requires significant attention.
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Old 01-28-2011, 09:07 AM   #13
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I don't see it that way. I would be more apt to base BPA analysis on this pyramid.
Yeah, I see what you are saying.
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Old 01-28-2011, 09:11 AM   #14
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You could also argue that Peterson would only be our #2 CB (assuming Champ returns). While he may be able to shut down his side of the field does shutting down a #2 WR make him as valuable as a #1 CB who shuts down the opponent's top guy?
You can also argue that Champ, even if he resigns, will not be around for much longer.
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Old 01-28-2011, 09:12 AM   #15
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You could also argue that Peterson would only be our #2 CB (assuming Champ returns). While he may be able to shut down his side of the field does shutting down a #2 WR make him as valuable as a #1 CB who shuts down the opponent's top guy?

Also consistently throughout the analysis there is a common theme that rushing the passer is key to any good defense. If you can't do that it doesn't matter who your CB's are. RDE is the key position for rushing the passer and we are set there, but we have no support for our RDE as he is basically our only pass rusher (Ayers still unproven) and the only guy on the line that requires significant attention.
If you can put a guy opposite Doom that is as good as Doom whodo you double team? Can't allocate 4 guys to block 2 guys. The numbers don't add up so maybe have to keep a back in or a TE to chip. Either way the odds severly favor Denver is they have a great DE opposite Doom.

Pass rush for Denver will trump CB play if you could pick 2 great DEs vs 2 great CBs becuase Doom is alot younger than Champ if he comes back 100% from his injury. CHamp will move to FS in a year or two as is

Plus there is always the next can't miss CB next year or the year after

JMO
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Old 01-28-2011, 09:13 AM   #16
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You could also argue that Peterson would only be our #2 CB (assuming Champ returns). While he may be able to shut down his side of the field does shutting down a #2 WR make him as valuable as a #1 CB who shuts down the opponent's top guy?

Also consistently throughout the analysis there is a common theme that rushing the passer is key to any good defense. If you can't do that it doesn't matter who your CB's are. RDE is the key position for rushing the passer and we are set there, but we have no support for our RDE as he is basically our only pass rusher (Ayers still unproven) and the only guy on the line that requires significant attention.
I think the idea with Peterson is that he moves to #1 CB as Champ moves to Free Safety over time, and that high quality DT's are available in round two.
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Old 01-28-2011, 09:14 AM   #17
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You could also argue that Peterson would only be our #2 CB (assuming Champ returns). While he may be able to shut down his side of the field does shutting down a #2 WR make him as valuable as a #1 CB who shuts down the opponent's top guy?

Also consistently throughout the analysis there is a common theme that rushing the passer is key to any good defense. If you can't do that it doesn't matter who your CB's are. RDE is the key position for rushing the passer and we are set there, but we have no support for our RDE as he is basically our only pass rusher (Ayers still unproven) and the only guy on the line that requires significant attention.
If you use the argument in your first paragraph and apply it to DE, Peterson still has greater value than a DE. We have two solid DEs or Rush OLBs in Ayers and Doom, and although Ayers is still somewhat unproven, he's better than our #2 CB.

Otherwise, you're talking about dropping down into a lesser tier.
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Old 01-28-2011, 09:15 AM   #18
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This is also what makes our season so strange, how we ended up picking No. 2.

We really don't need any of the four positions listed in Tier 1 and Tier 2. We have two NFL starting caliber quarterbacks (IMO), we have a left tackle in Clady who was coming off an injury and had a down year but is regarded as possibly the best young tackle in football, we have the leading sack man from two years ago who happened to be injured and we have a shutdown corner though he does need to be resigned and he is aging.

We're in a position to pick up a quality player from Tier 3, yet we may not need any WRs, and the right DT might not be of good value at pick No. 2 (assuming Fairley goes at No. 1).

If you can take a step back, and look at it from the outside, it really is interesting how this team ended up where it was. Going into the season, there seemed no need for concern because we had Tier 1, Tier 2, half of Tier 3, and we thought we'd signed the other half of Tier 3...yet somehow this team is picking No. 2. Quite amazing, if you believe in this type of team building.
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Old 01-28-2011, 09:18 AM   #19
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I still think you have to take into consideration the team effect of various positions. For instance, you can have a great CB (like Bailey), but if you have no pass rush, or a weak Dline, it is going to impact his effectiveness, simply because he spends more time in coverage and more time chasing down runners. In other words, a good Dline extends the life of your secondary. So, do you go with the tier two CB over the tier 3 DT, even if your team is worse off in the pass rush department, or do you go with the DT because he is going to improve overall secondary effectiveness? A CB is not going to have much effect on the play of the Dline, but the Dline has a huge effect on the play of the secondary.
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Old 01-28-2011, 09:19 AM   #20
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If you can put a guy opposite Doom that is as good as Doom whodo you double team? Can't allocate 4 guys to block 2 guys. The numbers don't add up so maybe have to keep a back in or a TE to chip. Either way the odds severly favor Denver is they have a great DE opposite Doom.

Pass rush for Denver will trump CB play if you could pick 2 great DEs vs 2 great CBs becuase Doom is alot younger than Champ if he comes back 100% from his injury. CHamp will move to FS in a year or two as is

Plus there is always the next can't miss CB next year or the year after

JMO
The odds also would say that Ayers is immediately upgraded with the return of Doom. Ayers, people seem to forget, was among the best defenders we had prior to his injury.

And I don't think we can operate on the assumption that we'll get Champ back. I highly doubt that there will be a CB prospect anywhere close to Peterson next year, and if there is I sincerely hope we're not in a position to draft him.
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Old 01-28-2011, 09:20 AM   #21
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I think the idea with Peterson is that he moves to #1 CB as Champ moves to Free Safety over time, and that high quality DT's are available in round two.
This is why I think our best decision would be to take Peterson. There will still be very good DT's in the draft when we pick next. We cannot pass on a player like Peterson.
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Old 01-28-2011, 09:23 AM   #22
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You follow Walter football? Really?

/smirks
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Old 01-28-2011, 09:27 AM   #23
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I still think you have to take into consideration the team effect of various positions. For instance, you can have a great CB (like Bailey), but if you have no pass rush, or a weak Dline, it is going to impact his effectiveness, simply because he spends more time in coverage and more time chasing down runners. In other words, a good Dline extends the life of your secondary. So, do you go with the tier two CB over the tier 3 DT, even if your team is worse off in the pass rush department, or do you go with the DT because he is going to improve overall secondary effectiveness? A CB is not going to have much effect on the play of the Dline, but the Dline has a huge effect on the play of the secondary.
My take is that the teams that draft consistently well use a system more like that described with the pyramid model. The teams that draft poorly tend to use the system you described, ie drafting for short term needs.

Shanahan employed that draft philosophy with terrible results.
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Old 01-28-2011, 09:28 AM   #24
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You follow Walter football? Really?

/smirks
Coming from a Kiper fanboy, I'll take that as a compliment.
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Old 01-28-2011, 09:29 AM   #25
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You can also argue that Champ, even if he resigns, will not be around for much longer.
True, but I hate to use the pick to replace Bailey, it seems like we are using the #2 pick to stay in the same place (like treading water)
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