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Old 01-02-2011, 04:27 AM   #1
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Default Paige: Broncos must pick perfectly

Paige: Broncos must pick perfectly



By Woody Paige
The Denver Post

Posted: 01/02/2011 01:00:00 AM MST




The Broncos have gone wrong gradually, but they could get right hurriedly.

A shrewd coach instead of a shrew, the quarterback of promise, exceptional draft choices and quality free agents right away, in the right way, could transform the Broncos from bust to boom, from defeatists to victors.

Four times, from one season to the next, the Broncos improved by five or seven victories and reached the playoffs each of those years.

The most drastic recovery occurred 20 years ago when the Broncos, under Dan Reeves, climbed from a 5-11 abyss to 12-4. The Broncos went from worst to first in the AFC West. In 1991 they beat the Houston Oilers in a postseason game, then lost the AFC championship in Buffalo 10-7 after three field goals were missed and John Elway was injured.

Reeves' Broncos finished 2-7 in the strike-inflicted 1982 season, but progressed to 9-7 in 1983 when Elway was added before losing at Seattle in the playoffs.

With Mike Shanahan, the Broncos did an upturn from 1995 (8-8) to '96 (13-3) and should have been in the Super Bowl but were upset by the Jax Jags at home. In '99, the post-Elway Broncos struggled to a 6-10 mark, but escalated to 11-5 in 2000 (and lost a playoff game in Baltimore).

Therefore, it can be done.

The Broncos will have their highest draft pick since linebacker Mike Croel was selected at No. 4 in 1991. (This year's will be between 2 and 6, depending on today's outcomes.)

They also possess two second-round picks theirs (in the 30s) and the Dolphins' selection from the Brandon Marshall trade (which will be in the 40s). A trade of Kyle Orton probably would bring another second-rounder. The Broncos have a third-round pick, none in the fourth and fifth rounds, one in the six and a final selection in the seventh.




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Old 01-02-2011, 04:33 AM   #2
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If we could actually get a 2nd for Orton that would be ****ing awesome.

Ideal scenario if we're picking at #2: Both Newton and Luck come out, we trade back to ~5-7, acquire a 2012 first and a 2011 2nd. Have traded Orton for a 2nd already.

Then draft Marcell Dareus, Use the draft firepower of four 2nds and a 3rd to move as needed to take JJ Watt and Stephen Paea. So if we can get Paea at our #2 and Watt one of the other 2nds we grab 'em and start flipping the remaining picks for 2012 firsts or 2011 3rds/4ths along with 2012 2nd.

Get fat on 2012 picks after grabbing three DL studs and getting fat at all the other need positions in the middle rounds. Sign a vet DL or two. Go into camp with no pressure to start day one on Paea or Watt, and let a bunch of 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounders battle it out for jobs. Find a few diamonds in the rough from that group and hit the 2012 draft like a ton of bricks with two firsts and a half dozen seconds, cleaning up at all our other need positions.
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Old 01-02-2011, 05:36 AM   #3
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If we could actually get a 2nd for Orton that would be ****ing awesome.

Ideal scenario if we're picking at #2: Both Newton and Luck come out, we trade back to ~5-7, acquire a 2012 first and a 2011 2nd. Have traded Orton for a 2nd already.

Then draft Marcell Dareus, Use the draft firepower of four 2nds and a 3rd to move as needed to take JJ Watt and Stephen Paea. So if we can get Paea at our #2 and Watt one of the other 2nds we grab 'em and start flipping the remaining picks for 2012 firsts or 2011 3rds/4ths along with 2012 2nd.

Get fat on 2012 picks after grabbing three DL studs and getting fat at all the other need positions in the middle rounds. Sign a vet DL or two. Go into camp with no pressure to start day one on Paea or Watt, and let a bunch of 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounders battle it out for jobs. Find a few diamonds in the rough from that group and hit the 2012 draft like a ton of bricks with two firsts and a half dozen seconds, cleaning up at all our other need positions.
I agree with all of this, especially the bit about Watt. Guy is a flat-out stud.
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Old 01-02-2011, 05:41 AM   #4
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You really can only stockpile picks once you are already good. Right now we are awful, and have too many positions of need to not try and fill those needs.
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Old 01-02-2011, 05:45 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by Drek View Post
If we could actually get a 2nd for Orton that would be ****ing awesome.

Ideal scenario if we're picking at #2: Both Newton and Luck come out, we trade back to ~5-7, acquire a 2012 first and a 2011 2nd. Have traded Orton for a 2nd already.

Then draft Marcell Dareus, Use the draft firepower of four 2nds and a 3rd to move as needed to take JJ Watt and Stephen Paea. So if we can get Paea at our #2 and Watt one of the other 2nds we grab 'em and start flipping the remaining picks for 2012 firsts or 2011 3rds/4ths along with 2012 2nd.

Get fat on 2012 picks after grabbing three DL studs and getting fat at all the other need positions in the middle rounds. Sign a vet DL or two. Go into camp with no pressure to start day one on Paea or Watt, and let a bunch of 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounders battle it out for jobs. Find a few diamonds in the rough from that group and hit the 2012 draft like a ton of bricks with two firsts and a half dozen seconds, cleaning up at all our other need positions.
I agree with your assessment except for the need for the draftees to start. Our talent is so bad on the defensive side that signing a vet DL or two will not be enough to really make much of a difference. Typically, vet signings have a mixed result at improving your talent. There is a reason they are available and typically it is high risk for the value you normally have to pay for them. We need to hit on at least a couple of draft picks who actually start and push these existing guys to the bench or out the door right from the start. It is amazing to see other teams (and not us) who do have rookies start because they earned their spots. Clady is one of the very few who actually earned his spot and whose play proved it. Cox, Beadles and Walton earned their jobs through injury or the talent being exceptionally bad. Although they might turn into very good players for us, who would actually start for more than 2 or 3 other teams right now? I don't think so.
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Old 01-02-2011, 06:16 AM   #6
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Wishful thinking that Cam Newton is going to go as high as pick 2. I do think teams will be looking to move up this year to select a QB however. There are alot of teams who need a QB with Luck, Mallet, Newton, and Locker out and projected in the 1st round it should be interesting to see if someone is willing to give up a future number 1 to move up 5 spots to select one of them.
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Old 01-02-2011, 06:34 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drek View Post
If we could actually get a 2nd for Orton that would be ****ing awesome.

Ideal scenario if we're picking at #2: Both Newton and Luck come out, we trade back to ~5-7, acquire a 2012 first and a 2011 2nd. Have traded Orton for a 2nd already.

Then draft Marcell Dareus, Use the draft firepower of four 2nds and a 3rd to move as needed to take JJ Watt and Stephen Paea. So if we can get Paea at our #2 and Watt one of the other 2nds we grab 'em and start flipping the remaining picks for 2012 firsts or 2011 3rds/4ths along with 2012 2nd.

Get fat on 2012 picks after grabbing three DL studs and getting fat at all the other need positions in the middle rounds. Sign a vet DL or two. Go into camp with no pressure to start day one on Paea or Watt, and let a bunch of 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounders battle it out for jobs. Find a few diamonds in the rough from that group and hit the 2012 draft like a ton of bricks with two firsts and a half dozen seconds, cleaning up at all our other need positions.
I'd be surprised if we got a 2nd for Orton... but it sure would be a pleasant surprise!

Watt looks really good. He played pretty well yesterday. Bit a lot on the QB option plays, but he has a great motor and great size. Do you really think he lasts into the 2nd round?

I don't know much about Paea. Seems like the 2nd round is about right for him based on the projections I've seen. What about Marvin Austin? A lot are projecting him right around the top of the 2nd round as well.

I like your idea of stockpiling picks to get ready for the 2012 draft as well. But, I don't know that a new regime will be willing to be that patient... not with the roster in shambles as it stands right now. I think a lot will depend on how quickly the CBA irons itself out and whether we can get some free agents in key spots. Safety being the biggest issue that we should address in Free Agency. There just aren't very many good prospects in this draft at safety.

I'm not sure about Darreus. He's a 3-4 End and taking one that early doesn't seem like a good idea. I would much prefer a switch to a 4-3 if we're going to draft DL. Then your options open up quite a bit at DL.
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Old 01-02-2011, 06:37 AM   #8
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Wishful thinking that Cam Newton is going to go as high as pick 2. I do think teams will be looking to move up this year to select a QB however. There are alot of teams who need a QB with Luck, Mallet, Newton, and Locker out and projected in the 1st round it should be interesting to see if someone is willing to give up a future number 1 to move up 5 spots to select one of them.
I don't know, seems like Newton is getting more and more attention as a top 10 pick. Once he works out that can easily improve to top 5 or even top 3... especially if there is a rookie scale and teams can take the risk to develop him!
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Old 01-02-2011, 06:45 AM   #9
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I think a conditional 2nd or 3rd is about as good as we'll get. If we thought we were making a run, it would make more sense to keep him...he'd be the best backup in the NFL. But it's better to get a pick or two and try and pick up another rebuilding piece at this point. Sigh...
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Old 01-02-2011, 07:27 AM   #10
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My ideal scenario would be we trade Tebow and the second pick to Carolina for the #1 pick plus Carolina's third, we get a second for Orton, and end up with Andrew Luck, three seconds, and two thirds. Then we use two seconds to trade back up into the first for the best pass rusher we can find and we're still left with a second and two thirds.
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Old 01-02-2011, 07:59 AM   #11
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I sure hope we keep Tebow.

Ask yourself this: Would you rather have him on your team or play against him?
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Old 01-02-2011, 08:14 AM   #12
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If we trade Tebow we are schmucks of the highest order...
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Old 01-02-2011, 08:20 AM   #13
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It would definitely be a controversial move. Maybe, for that reason, the Broncos would be against making it. The drama llamas of the Broncos fan base would certainly go apoplectic. I think it would depend on what the plan is. Brady and Favre are two HOF QBs. Are they interchangeable? No. They bring a different skill set to the table. Two different brands of football. I guess it will depend on where we go from here.
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Old 01-02-2011, 09:09 AM   #14
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Tebow is the new Hillis on the OM.
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Old 01-02-2011, 09:14 AM   #15
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Marcel Dareus needs to be a Bronco. Good lord he was awesome yesterday.
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Old 01-02-2011, 09:21 AM   #16
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Marcel Dareus needs to be a Bronco. Good lord he was awesome yesterday.
He sure was.
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Old 01-02-2011, 09:23 AM   #17
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Marcel Dareus needs to be a Bronco. Good lord he was awesome yesterday.
He was a beast. I could get on that pick or Peterson.
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Old 01-02-2011, 09:31 AM   #18
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Marcel Dareus needs to be a Bronco. Good lord he was awesome yesterday.
No doubt. I'll be interested to compare his performance to Fairley's next week.
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Old 01-02-2011, 10:20 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drek View Post
If we could actually get a 2nd for Orton that would be ****ing awesome.

Ideal scenario if we're picking at #2: Both Newton and Luck come out, we trade back to ~5-7, acquire a 2012 first and a 2011 2nd. Have traded Orton for a 2nd already.

Then draft Marcell Dareus, Use the draft firepower of four 2nds and a 3rd to move as needed to take JJ Watt and Stephen Paea. So if we can get Paea at our #2 and Watt one of the other 2nds we grab 'em and start flipping the remaining picks for 2012 firsts or 2011 3rds/4ths along with 2012 2nd.

Get fat on 2012 picks after grabbing three DL studs and getting fat at all the other need positions in the middle rounds. Sign a vet DL or two. Go into camp with no pressure to start day one on Paea or Watt, and let a bunch of 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounders battle it out for jobs. Find a few diamonds in the rough from that group and hit the 2012 draft like a ton of bricks with two firsts and a half dozen seconds, cleaning up at all our other need positions.
yep, so nice it needs to be posted twice...
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Old 01-02-2011, 10:26 AM   #20
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You really can only stockpile picks once you are already good. Right now we are awful, and have too many positions of need to not try and fill those needs.
We can afford to stockpile early 2012's as long as we're getting mid-2011's in the process.

Trade a 2011 2nd for a 2011 3rd and a 2012 2nd, or an early 2011 2nd for a 2011 4th/5th and a 2012 1st.

Moves like that give us MORE picks in 2011 while also giving us a ton more value in 2012. Hit the middle rounds (3-6) hard and see if we catch diamonds in the rough. Then in 2012 we have a ton of high picks to select pedigree to fill the holes a mid-rounder didn't step up into.

If you view it as a "we have too many holes, lets address all of them now in a single draft!" we're going to wind up grossly over picking guys and wind up with a bunch of mediocre busts. We need to start thinking about long term draft value and how we can manipulate most team's "I want it NOW!" mindset towards the draft to stock up on future picks while keeping a large number of current year selections.

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I'd be surprised if we got a 2nd for Orton... but it sure would be a pleasant surprise!
I'd be SHOCKED if we did. I'm expecting a late 3rd at best with a mid to late 4th as more likely compensation. But we can dream.

Quote:
Watt looks really good. He played pretty well yesterday. Bit a lot on the QB option plays, but he has a great motor and great size. Do you really think he lasts into the 2nd round?
Very possibly not, which is when we'd need to find a way to make a move up a few spots after him. But he definitely could. He strikes me as a bubble 1st/2nd round guy. If he works out exceptionally well he'll climb boards, but if not he might get passed by a good number of workout warrior types.

Quote:
I don't know much about Paea. Seems like the 2nd round is about right for him based on the projections I've seen.
He'll go in the same general area as Watt, late 1st to early 2nd. Paea would be a perfect fit in almost any scheme. He's just a little small for a two gap NT but he's freakishly strong and likely could make up for 10-15 pounds of size. If we play a one gap DL in a 3-4 (like the Steelers, C-Boys, etc.) he'd be a stellar fit. If we go back to a 4-3 he's a great option for either NT or UT. He and Dareus are probably my most wanted draftees at this point.

Quote:
I like your idea of stockpiling picks to get ready for the 2012 draft as well. But, I don't know that a new regime will be willing to be that patient...
This is why we need a separate HC and GM. The HC's job is to win now and coach the players to do just that. The GM's job is to build for the team's long term future and he runs the player acquisition, most notably the draft.

The scenario I proposed is one where the GM explains his plan to the HC and how he'll draft to the HC's needs as best as possible, but that in year one he'd be trying to coach a bunch of 3-6 rounders and UDFAs into being starters, all to prepare the roster for a major 2012 infusion of high pedigree talents.

Quote:
I'm not sure about Darreus. He's a 3-4 End and taking one that early doesn't seem like a good idea. I would much prefer a switch to a 4-3 if we're going to draft DL. Then your options open up quite a bit at DL.
Dareus is a rare specimen at 3-4 DE. He isn't a Tyson Jackson type. In the SEC against future NFL starting OLs teams have had the choice of either double (or triple) teaming him or letting him get to the QB.

Michigan State was co-Big Ten champs and has a pretty stout OL. They had to double team Dareus ALL DAY and even then he generated pressure. Hell, when they ran to his side they often tried to triple team him.

However, I agree that if we're picking #2 its probably too early for him. That is why we'd trade down and acquire future draft value in the process, taking him in the 5-7 range where he's a better value fit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by robbieopperude View Post
Wishful thinking that Cam Newton is going to go as high as pick 2. I do think teams will be looking to move up this year to select a QB however. There are alot of teams who need a QB with Luck, Mallet, Newton, and Locker out and projected in the 1st round it should be interesting to see if someone is willing to give up a future number 1 to move up 5 spots to select one of them.
If Cam Newton comes out he'll be a top 10 pick, probably top 5. He's going to get the "Vince Young but mentally tougher, physically bigger and a better thrower" hype that got Young selected in the top 10. Newton will work out like a superman and all the negatives he has will be glossed over as opposed to put under the microscope that scouts did with Tebow.

You can already see the beginnings of it. McShay and Kiper, two Tebow haters, both gush over Newton and how he's got "NFL skills". Despite having all the same flaws as Tebow, big character question marks, and none of the proven work ethic that Tebow has.
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Old 01-02-2011, 10:28 AM   #21
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Wishful thinking that Cam Newton is going to go as high as pick 2. I do think teams will be looking to move up this year to select a QB however. There are alot of teams who need a QB with Luck, Mallet, Newton, and Locker out and projected in the 1st round it should be interesting to see if someone is willing to give up a future number 1 to move up 5 spots to select one of them.
The kid from Missouri is being mentioned in that group also. In fact I think he's going before Newton does. IF we could move down no farther than the 7th pick where we would be virtually guaranteed to get one of the top D-line guys, and IF we could squeeze another #1 in 2012 plus a 2011 2nd rounder...that's a lot of IF's but IF we could do that deal...then sure, do it. Otherwise...take Peterson if we have the 2nd pick. He's as close to sure fire All Pro potential as their is in this draft, including Andrew Luck.
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Old 01-02-2011, 10:33 AM   #22
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There's a lot of QB talent in this years draft. Luck, Locker, Newton, Mallet could all go in the top 10.
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Old 01-02-2011, 10:36 AM   #23
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The kid from Missouri is being mentioned in that group also. In fact I think he's going before Newton does. IF we could move down no farther than the 7th pick where we would be virtually guaranteed to get one of the top D-line guys, and IF we could squeeze another #1 in 2012 plus a 2011 2nd rounder...that's a lot of IF's but IF we could do that deal...then sure, do it. Otherwise...take Peterson if we have the 2nd pick. He's as close to sure fire All Pro potential as their is in this draft, including Andrew Luck.
Peterson is way more of a prospect than Luck. Luck is 50% great 50% hype. Who knows which side will win out once he's a pro. But Peterson? Holy crap...
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Old 01-02-2011, 11:01 AM   #24
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There's a lot of QB talent in this years draft. Luck, Locker, Newton, Mallet could all go in the top 10.
The kid from Missouri is climbing up the ladder if you listened to the TV pundits. They think he's the #2 guy on some boards behind Luck.
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Old 01-02-2011, 11:03 AM   #25
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Peterson is way more of a prospect than Luck. Luck is 50% great 50% hype. Who knows which side will win out once he's a pro. But Peterson? Holy crap...
People who haven't seen this kid play are missing it. Think Champ Bailey meets Steve Atwater. He's huge, fast, has elite coverage skills and he's Deon Sanders-like in the return game. Best of all he's an intimidating presence that receivers fear. Barring injury or stupidity, he should be an NFL superstar.
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