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Old 12-04-2010, 11:59 AM   #1
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When the Broncos have been in trouble, it's almost universally been in third down. when the Broncos are successful, it's almost overwhelmingly because thy have avoided third down altogether. Why is that? The NFL has moved to a series of tightly planned quick timed attacks and routes. Two step drops, seven step drops, and play action. Al of which have a precise timing to them. The best in the game is the chargers - the Air Croyll attacks are very precise timing routes, where separation is caused by the timing of the route itself, and only requires one or two reads.

The best quarterbacks in the league since Elway retired have been quarterbacks that excel at these very carefully times and planned routes. Brady, Manning all are captains. The sit down, diagnose, think, plan, and execute. The league is a copy cat league, and Orton is a (good) fascimilie of this trend. The problem is that the NFL has adapted to this.

These kind of passing attacks are the susceptible to moving the quarterback or the receivers "off schedule." Remember that phrase, you will hear it much more over the next few years. It's not just about pass rush, it's anything that disrupts the timing between QBs and receivers. You do this in two ways - blitzing the passer, or "chipping" the receivers - moving them off target, disrupting a play's timing.


Kyle Orton has a weird glaring problem. The worst thing in the world you can do with Kyle is put him in a situation where the Broncos are behind, and the game is on the line. His rating when the Broncos are behind 1-7 points is 30 points lower then his average. His red zone play is 15 points below his average (which is why I chuckle when the Ortonites complain about Tebow getting "the easy TDs"). 4th Quarter within 7? His average is almost 40 points below his usual . Similar drop off for the last two minutes of the first. All of the situations above are scenarios in which opposing teams focus on moving the QB and the receivers off-schedule, and Orton, and thus the Broncos are very bad in this scenario.

Some will object that any quarterback is bad, when moved off schedule. It's simply not true. To add fuel to the fire, let's compare Orton with Cutler.

Interestingly enough, Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler really are reverses of each other. Cutler is at the top of his game when it's close, and sucks when the score differential is greater then 14, while Orton get's his best marks there. Cutler clearly has stamina issues - his rating plummets when he has to pass more then 20 times again. Orton is rock solid in terms of stamina, but tends to loose it when being moved off schedule no matter what quarter it occurs in. Cutler does best when he is off schedule - his upper body strength and mobility allow him to make plays Orton can't. But if a game plan requires precise timing routes, you are screwed with Cutler, which is almost the only thing that Orton does. The exact same thing is true of all of the mobile quarterbacks - Vick and Rapesalotberger. The tighter a game is, the bigger advantage a mobile quarterback is. Cutler may suck outside the 20s and not in clutch, but allows for "complementary football."

Conversely, consider Tom Brady. His behind by less then 7 in the 4th quarter, 2 minutes left has a similar drop to Orton - 20 points lower then his average. This despite Brady having a career year. Manning, another fairly mobile quarterback, likewise has huge liability last two minutes of the first, and end of game.

To win this game, we have to go for the kill early, put them in such a huge hole, that it doesn't matter if Cassel throws for 400 yards.

Failing that, we might need to see if Tebow's mobility brings us the advantage we need to win when we are behind.

Last edited by lostknight; 12-04-2010 at 12:03 PM..
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Old 12-04-2010, 12:01 PM   #2
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Old 12-04-2010, 12:04 PM   #3
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I'm sorry. Did the truth offend you?
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Old 12-04-2010, 12:10 PM   #4
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the people whos job it is to run and control this team, who are with these guys on a daily basis, have a good understanding of what it takes to win. they believe kyle orton is in a better spot to do that than tebow, and given that orton is having a damn good season and tebow has had a career 1 throw, i think its safe to believe them.

but make up your facts as you see fit.
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Old 12-04-2010, 12:13 PM   #5
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I liked the post myself. I think Tebow will do fine at QB especially under McDaniels if he gets that chance. I think reason Kyle for picks we use on D would be a smart move. Flame away!
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Old 12-04-2010, 12:14 PM   #6
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Good write up. I like Orton, but I think he looks better because McDaniels doesn't run the ball and has a knack for the passing attack.

I'm excited to see Tebow play because he is a player that creates, much like Elway did. Orton takes what the defense gives him...Tebow forces the issue.
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Old 12-04-2010, 12:21 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by tsiguy96 View Post
the people whos job it is to run and control this team, who are with these guys on a daily basis, have a good understanding of what it takes to win. they believe kyle orton is in a better spot to do that than tebow, and given that orton is having a damn good season and tebow has had a career 1 throw, i think its safe to believe them.

but make up your facts as you see fit.
Results disagree
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Old 12-04-2010, 12:30 PM   #8
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Results disagree
A very unfortunate truth
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Old 12-04-2010, 12:37 PM   #9
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Results disagree
But it is hard to argue that they don't know qbs.

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Old 12-04-2010, 12:37 PM   #10
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The problem with 3rd down? It's always a long third down. You will never consistently convert 3rd and 7+.

Here's an idea. Let's get our run game fixed, give Orton time to throw, and have a defense that doesn't all but guarantee that, despite what good the offense does, the game will at best be tied or we'll be down a score or two at the fourth quarter.

Of all the things wrong on this team you pick Orton to bash. That's just unbelievable at this point in time. Tebow will go in when Tebow has proven to be the guy playing the best. And that isn't right now.

Last edited by snowspot66; 12-04-2010 at 12:40 PM..
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Old 12-04-2010, 12:38 PM   #11
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Nice post. Really pertinent observations about the mobile QB versus the pocket passer. I really like the idea of having two quarterbacks and I think Josh may be the only guy in the league who can make it work. It'd be great to see Orton and Tebow exchanged throughout the game depending on how the opposing team defense is reacting.

Of course there are issues. For one, both guys at QB need to be extremely humble for this to work. Another issue is rhythm and timing. We've seen a number of times that Orton is seemingly on fire, then Tebow goes in for one play, and Orton sucks for the next two quarters.

That being said, I think if those issues could be resolved, the potential is amazing.
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Old 12-04-2010, 12:39 PM   #12
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Actually a solid post. The question is can Tebow be both?
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Old 12-04-2010, 12:44 PM   #13
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Actually a solid post. The question is can Tebow be both?
I don't think he can be both but I can see him as being a better Roethlisberger... Without the raping.
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Old 12-04-2010, 01:12 PM   #14
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I don't think he can be both but I can see him as being a better Roethlisberger... Without the raping.
In other words, completely against McD's offensive system?
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Old 12-04-2010, 01:20 PM   #15
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I wonder how people on here can see Orton improve his passer rating every ****ing season, throw for career highs in yards, and TD's and reduces his INTs...is on pace to shatter franchise records for yards and TD's, and passer rating and is only like 26-27 years old, and they think he isn't the future.

I'm not worried about Tebow developing, because Josh has proven he can coach QB's, and Tim will have plenty of time to watch and learn from a pretty good QB in Kyle Orton
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Old 12-04-2010, 01:30 PM   #16
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Old 12-04-2010, 01:35 PM   #17
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Quote:
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But it is hard to argue that they don't know qbs.
True. Which can also argue in Tebow's favor.
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Old 12-04-2010, 01:43 PM   #18
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True. Which can also argue in Tebow's favor.
no you cant, if you could tebow would be starting. long term tehy may view tebow as better, but for right now and the forseeable future its not gonna change, hence the orton extension.
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Old 12-04-2010, 01:45 PM   #19
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To the OP, good post. I hadn't really thought of it that way before.
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Old 12-04-2010, 01:52 PM   #20
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In other words, completely against McD's offensive system?
Actually no, not in those words at all.
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Old 12-04-2010, 01:59 PM   #21
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I won't argue the "Behind by X points in the 4th Q metric because it is what it is....

However, the "Orton sucks on 3rd and long" is a reach....

2010 3rd and 6+ yards:

Brady: 71.8 QBR, 53.4 %, 6.7 Y/A, 2TD, 2 INT
Manning: 60.0 QBR, 56.7%, 7.3 Y/A, 1TD, 4 INT,
Cutler: 57.8 QBR, 55.8%, 6.8 Y/A, 2TD, 4 INT
Orton: 75.3 QBR, 57.9%, 6.3 Y/A, 1TD, 1 INT

And yes, Orton & Cutler have become reverses of each other. It's like I said last year....They are basically interchangeable.

There's not a doubt in my mind that Cutler's numbers would be roughly equal to Orton's with this Bronco team (except perhaps for less sacks but more picks) and vice versa.
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Old 12-04-2010, 02:02 PM   #22
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I wonder how people on here can see Orton improve his passer rating every ****ing season, throw for career highs in yards, and TD's and reduces his INTs...is on pace to shatter franchise records for yards and TD's, and passer rating and is only like 26-27 years old, and they think he isn't the future.

I'm not worried about Tebow developing, because Josh has proven he can coach QB's, and Tim will have plenty of time to watch and learn from a pretty good QB in Kyle Orton
Empty yards is nice but, come from behind wins is what we need not mulligans. We can go with Orton but, we better load up talent big time if we want to win alot.
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Old 12-04-2010, 02:02 PM   #23
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no you cant, if you could tebow would be starting. long term tehy may view tebow as better, but for right now and the forseeable future its not gonna change, hence the orton extension.
1. The extension was done in august, not last week.

2. It's also extremely possible that McDaniels views Tebow as the last little stronghold of his employment and that's why he's saving him.

3. Your opinion and what you say doesn't matter since it's merely an extension of what the FO makes public and not truly your own opinion... you may not even capable of your own opinion for all I know.

4. You're an idiot
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Old 12-04-2010, 02:10 PM   #24
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1. The extension was done in august, not last week.

2. It's also extremely possible that McDaniels views Tebow as the last little stronghold of his employment and that's why he's saving him.

3. Your opinion and what you say doesn't matter since it's merely an extension of what the FO makes public and not truly your own opinion... you may not even capable of your own opinion for all I know.

4. You're an idiot
typical rev post. say stupid ****, followed by an attempt at witty humor, with a a few insults and an emoticon.
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Old 12-04-2010, 02:24 PM   #25
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Quote:
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I won't argue the "Behind by X points in the 4th Q metric because it is what it is....

However, the "Orton sucks on 3rd and long" is a reach....

2010 3rd and 6+ yards:

Brady: 71.8 QBR, 53.4 %, 6.7 Y/A, 2TD, 2 INT
Manning: 60.0 QBR, 56.7%, 7.3 Y/A, 1TD, 4 INT,
Cutler: 57.8 QBR, 55.8%, 6.8 Y/A, 2TD, 4 INT
Orton: 75.3 QBR, 57.9%, 6.3 Y/A, 1TD, 1 INT

And yes, Orton & Cutler have become reverses of each other. It's like I said last year....They are basically interchangeable.

There's not a doubt in my mind that Cutler's numbers would be roughly equal to Orton's with this Bronco team (except perhaps for less sacks but more picks) and vice versa.
There was a horrible STAT that they showed about the Broncos and 3rd down.. I think it was 3 of 21?? Somebody correct me if I'm wrong. I think the problem with 3rd downs is the distance but thats because our coach is pass happy! If you remember last year during out 6-0 run we ran the ball on 1st and 2nd down a lot... A lot of positive runs, hardly any negative yardage. This year it's either pass, pass, pass, punt or run, pass, pass, punt.
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