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Old 11-30-2010, 09:41 AM   #1
Miss I.
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Default Fixing Denver’s Dilemmas

There is a lot of emotion going on right now, fueled largely by frustration and speculation. Setting aside our tangled emotional states and a panicked rush to change, I would like to suggest a more constructive method to deal with Denver’s Dilemmas.

Working in the field of manufacturing, many theories have emerged to fix major production issues. Lean Management is one such application. Coming out of that is the concept Root Cause Analysis (RCA). The basic concepts are also applicable to the running of a football team, at least in a general sense. We are talking about a product, a winning football team, who also needs to follow basic processes to meet the goal of fielding a winning team, culminating ideally in a Superbowl Victory.

Below, I’ve listed the process of RCA to evaluate our current situation.

General Process of RCA:
To be effective, RCA must be performed systematically as an investigation, with conclusions and the root cause backed up by documented evidence.
1. Define the problem.
2. Gather data/evidence.
3. Ask why and identify the true root cause associated with the defined problem.
4. Identify corrective action(s) that will prevent recurrence of the problem (your 100 year fix).
5. Identify effective solutions that prevent recurrence, are within your control, meet your goals and objectives and do not cause other problems.
6. Implement the recommendations.
7. Observe the recommended solutions to ensure effectiveness.
8. Variability Reduction methodology for problem solving and problem avoidance.


I would be curious to see what people come up with, when given a more constructive approach to the issues we are facing.

And yes, I do have too much time on my hands.
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Old 11-30-2010, 09:54 AM   #2
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1. Define the problem: Losing.
2. Gather data/evidence: 3-8.
3. Ask why and identify the true root cause associated with the defined problem: No pressure on D. Oline issues.
4. Identify corrective action(s) that will prevent recurrence of the problem (your 100 year fix).: Draft/FA sign DT, DE OLB & safety for the D. Draft/FA sign depth for oline and patience.
5. Identify effective solutions that prevent recurrence, are within your control, meet your goals and objectives and do not cause other problems: More resources to the front 7. Draft strategy should be re-evaluated.
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Old 11-30-2010, 09:59 AM   #3
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Rwaaaaawwwr personal attack on you!!!

Ok now that that's out of the way:

1. Define the problem. -Too much lose, not enough win
2. Gather data/evidence. - 3-8
3. Ask why and identify the true root cause associated with the defined problem. -the other team keeps scoring touchdowns and we don't
4. Identify corrective action(s) that will prevent recurrence of the problem (your 100 year fix). -go back in time and forbid ryan clady from playing basketball. warm up elvis's pecs. run the ball more. tell brian dawkins to stop letting people run by him.
5. Identify effective solutions that prevent recurrence, are within your control, meet your goals and objectives and do not cause other problems.
-run the damn ball more. get new safeties this off season. add an impact defensive lineman.
6. Implement the recommendations. -I guess I can try, but they might just send me back to Canada
7. Observe the recommended solutions to ensure effectiveness. -yay watching football!
8. Variability Reduction methodology for problem solving and problem avoidance. -yeah I don't know what this is.
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Old 11-30-2010, 10:50 AM   #4
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1. Define the problem.....failure to score touchdowns

2. Gather data/evidence....... Thunder is getting fat and lazy

3. Ask why and identify the true root cause associated with the defined problem.........No run game, because Peyton Hillis was traded for bench warmer.

4. Identify corrective action(s) that will prevent recurrence of the problem (your 100 year fix)........ Trade 1st round pick plus Brady Quinn for Peyton Hillis

5. Identify effective solutions that prevent recurrence, are within your control, meet your goals and objectives and do not cause other problems......Send McDaniels back to New England and ban hoodies from the stadium.

6. Implement the recommendations........Run Jumbo Jesus package with Hillis and Tebow.

7. Observe the recommended solutions to ensure effectiveness.........drink mass quanities of beer and watch Bronco's score points.

8. Variability Reduction methodology for problem solving and problem avoidance..........Wach game again on DVR and drink more beer.
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Old 11-30-2010, 10:53 AM   #5
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1. Define the problem: kyle orton
2. Gather data/evidence: kyle orton is teh absolute embarass
3. Ask why and identify the true root cause associated with the defined problem: kyle orton is teh noodle arm
4. Identify corrective action(s) that will prevent recurrence of the problem (your 100 year fix): bench orton, start tebow
5. Identify effective solutions that prevent recurrence, are within your control, meet your goals and objectives and do not cause other problems: trade kyle orton
6. Implement the recommendations: umm..bench then trade kyle orton
7. Observe the recommended solutions to ensure effectiveness; tebow wins all remaining games
8. Variability Reduction methodology for problem solving and problem avoidance:huh?

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Old 11-30-2010, 11:14 AM   #6
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Interesting approach, Miss I.

I'm thinking that with interlocking systems as complex as a pro football team, would it work better to approach each of the component groups individually for analysis?

1 - Coaching staff - Regardless of what one thinks of Josh McDaniels, I'd also look at the rest of his team. Clancy Barone, for instance: is he qualified to coach an NFL offensive line? Most of his experience to this point has been coaching tight ends. He has only one year experience as an offensive line coach at the pro level, for Atlanta in 2004. All his prior OL coaching experience before Denver was at the college level for such powerhouse luminaries as Houston and Wyoming. I'd put the same kind of scrutiny on each member of the coaching team (especially Wink Martindale).

The coaching staff on both offense and defense appears to have problems with in-game flexibility: they don't make enough adjustments to their initial plans based on what the opponent offers. Martindale prematurely stops the process of making adjustments to his defensive strategy. He comes out with one strategy, the opponent adjusts, and he makes one adjustment. When the opponent adjusts again, Martindale doesn't. At that point he seems to prefer yelling at his players to play harder or better instead of making further adjustments to put them in better positions to succeed. Again, I question his experience as a DC.

There's a similar problem on offense. McDaniels' adjustments to the offense often break up any rhythm that may have been established on the field. When the passing game is working, why call three straight RB dives into the line? Or when the running game is working, why abandon it to throw more? There could be any of several causative factors:

* He may not have a clear vision of the on-field tactical identity he wants for the Broncos.
* He may have a tendency to insist on what he *wants* the team to do, regardless of what the defense offers or shows. (The "dammit-I-will-be-right!" approach.)
* He may be outsmarting himself and overthinking the situation to the point that the play calls lose coherence.

I don't know enough about coaching football to have good input on how to solve these problems. These are just my observations about the coaching staff.

2 - Offensive line - Primary problems are injuries (both current injuries and recovering from injuries) and inexperience (2 rookies starting). Also consider depth & backups. Hochstein is a prime target for replacement.

3 - Running backs - Considered on his own, Knowshon looks like a capable back when the offensive line is in sync. Correll Buckhalter looks like he has lost several steps and is no longer effective running from scrimmage. He's still an effective pass protector and receiver, but I'd mark his roster spot for replacement. Lance Ball is a backup, period. Spencer Larsen's heart is in the right place at fullback. He has shown some flashes running from that position. Give him the ball more often and see what he's got.

4 - Tight ends - Daniel Graham has hands of stone. The offense can't rely on him as an outlet and alternate receiver. Richard Quinn: need I say more? Dan Gronkowski has the most potential of the current group. I'd mark this for an upgrade, especially with someone who can actually catch the ball.

5 - Wide receivers - This group is working well. I'd like for process improvement primarily in developing depth so that no matter which receivers on the field, the defense HAS to pay attention to all of them.

6 - QB - Orton is putting up great numbers within the offensive system, but I'm not sold that he has the "It factor" in leadership and killer instinct. The biggest question for this position is if Tim Tebow will be an upgrade in leadership. He's already earned the respect on the team for his work habits. How will that respect translate to the field? Brady Quinn is 3rd string at best, and possibly unemployed if McDaniels is fired.

7 - Defensive line - Yikes, where to begin. After years of neglect to the defense, the vultures have come home to roost here. The front office attempted to address this last year through free agency by looking for backups who they thought would be ready to start. OOPS, there's a reason that Bannan and (what was his name?) Green were backups. The line is ineffective in pass rush and not much better against the run. To me this looks like an area to start over through both free agency (again) and the draft.

8 - Linebackers - Too often out of position and easily blocked out of plays. They end up pursuing from behind all too often. Their play should improve with better performance from the defensive line. Keepers are Mario Haggans, Joe Mays, DJ Williams, and Jason Hunter (backup). Definitely a target for improvement and replacement, primarily through the draft because there are enough serviceable linebackers -- for now. Improving depth should be a priority, and look in the draft for a headhunter along the lines of Clay Matthews or Brian Orakpo.

9 - Defensive backs - Thompson, Cox and Bailey are all solid-to-outstanding. Nate Jones & Andre Goodman are both up for replacement. This area becomes much more a priority for draft attention if Bailey leaves. Cornerbacks should still be a lower draft priority than the front seven. With improvement in the defensive front, levels of performance from all the corners should improve. If not, replace them.

The safety positions should be the #3 priority in the draft behind D-line and LBs. Much as we love him, Dawkins is clearly done. The aggressive instincts are still there, but his legs can't keep up. Martindale currently scripts Hill right out of many defensive sets by positioning him 20 yards behind the line. Because of this the Bronco defense has to play 10-vs-11 in too many plays. It's hard to assess Hill's performance because he's out of so many plays by design of the defense.

I'd give McBath one more year to prove that he can both play at a high level *and* stay injury free. The problem is that he brings his arm across his body during contact. I'm not sure whether it's an instinctive move to protect himself or if he's trying to lead with it for the big forearm hit. Either way, his left arm has been broken twice in two years. If he can't or won't be coached out of that, his tendency to injury makes him a target for replacement.

Bruton is good on special teams, and worth keeping for that reason.

10 - Special teams - Fire the current coach. He doesn't seem to have the teaching ability and presence to instill lane discipline against returners. That has to be drilled in, over and over again. Improving the depth at linebacker and secondary positions should help this area too.

That's all I have for now.
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Old 11-30-2010, 11:45 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sisterhellfyre View Post
Interesting approach, Miss I.

I'm thinking that with interlocking systems as complex as a pro football team, would it work better to approach each of the component groups individually for analysis?

1 - Coaching staff - Regardless of what one thinks of Josh McDaniels, I'd also look at the rest of his team. Clancy Barone, for instance: is he qualified to coach an NFL offensive line? Most of his experience to this point has been coaching tight ends. He has only one year experience as an offensive line coach at the pro level, for Atlanta in 2004. All his prior OL coaching experience before Denver was at the college level for such powerhouse luminaries as Houston and Wyoming. I'd put the same kind of scrutiny on each member of the coaching team (especially Wink Martindale).

The coaching staff on both offense and defense appears to have problems with in-game flexibility: they don't make enough adjustments to their initial plans based on what the opponent offers. Martindale prematurely stops the process of making adjustments to his defensive strategy. He comes out with one strategy, the opponent adjusts, and he makes one adjustment. When the opponent adjusts again, Martindale doesn't. At that point he seems to prefer yelling at his players to play harder or better instead of making further adjustments to put them in better positions to succeed. Again, I question his experience as a DC.

There's a similar problem on offense. McDaniels' adjustments to the offense often break up any rhythm that may have been established on the field. When the passing game is working, why call three straight RB dives into the line? Or when the running game is working, why abandon it to throw more? There could be any of several causative factors:

* He may not have a clear vision of the on-field tactical identity he wants for the Broncos.
* He may have a tendency to insist on what he *wants* the team to do, regardless of what the defense offers or shows. (The "dammit-I-will-be-right!" approach.)
* He may be outsmarting himself and overthinking the situation to the point that the play calls lose coherence.

I don't know enough about coaching football to have good input on how to solve these problems. These are just my observations about the coaching staff.

2 - Offensive line - Primary problems are injuries (both current injuries and recovering from injuries) and inexperience (2 rookies starting). Also consider depth & backups. Hochstein is a prime target for replacement.

3 - Running backs - Considered on his own, Knowshon looks like a capable back when the offensive line is in sync. Correll Buckhalter looks like he has lost several steps and is no longer effective running from scrimmage. He's still an effective pass protector and receiver, but I'd mark his roster spot for replacement. Lance Ball is a backup, period. Spencer Larsen's heart is in the right place at fullback. He has shown some flashes running from that position. Give him the ball more often and see what he's got.

4 - Tight ends - Daniel Graham has hands of stone. The offense can't rely on him as an outlet and alternate receiver. Richard Quinn: need I say more? Dan Gronkowski has the most potential of the current group. I'd mark this for an upgrade, especially with someone who can actually catch the ball.

5 - Wide receivers - This group is working well. I'd like for process improvement primarily in developing depth so that no matter which receivers on the field, the defense HAS to pay attention to all of them.

6 - QB - Orton is putting up great numbers within the offensive system, but I'm not sold that he has the "It factor" in leadership and killer instinct. The biggest question for this position is if Tim Tebow will be an upgrade in leadership. He's already earned the respect on the team for his work habits. How will that respect translate to the field? Brady Quinn is 3rd string at best, and possibly unemployed if McDaniels is fired.

7 - Defensive line - Yikes, where to begin. After years of neglect to the defense, the vultures have come home to roost here. The front office attempted to address this last year through free agency by looking for backups who they thought would be ready to start. OOPS, there's a reason that Bannan and (what was his name?) Green were backups. The line is ineffective in pass rush and not much better against the run. To me this looks like an area to start over through both free agency (again) and the draft.

8 - Linebackers - Too often out of position and easily blocked out of plays. They end up pursuing from behind all too often. Their play should improve with better performance from the defensive line. Keepers are Mario Haggans, Joe Mays, DJ Williams, and Jason Hunter (backup). Definitely a target for improvement and replacement, primarily through the draft because there are enough serviceable linebackers -- for now. Improving depth should be a priority, and look in the draft for a headhunter along the lines of Clay Matthews or Brian Orakpo.

9 - Defensive backs - Thompson, Cox and Bailey are all solid-to-outstanding. Nate Jones & Andre Goodman are both up for replacement. This area becomes much more a priority for draft attention if Bailey leaves. Cornerbacks should still be a lower draft priority than the front seven. With improvement in the defensive front, levels of performance from all the corners should improve. If not, replace them.

The safety positions should be the #3 priority in the draft behind D-line and LBs. Much as we love him, Dawkins is clearly done. The aggressive instincts are still there, but his legs can't keep up. Martindale currently scripts Hill right out of many defensive sets by positioning him 20 yards behind the line. Because of this the Bronco defense has to play 10-vs-11 in too many plays. It's hard to assess Hill's performance because he's out of so many plays by design of the defense.

I'd give McBath one more year to prove that he can both play at a high level *and* stay injury free. The problem is that he brings his arm across his body during contact. I'm not sure whether it's an instinctive move to protect himself or if he's trying to lead with it for the big forearm hit. Either way, his left arm has been broken twice in two years. If he can't or won't be coached out of that, his tendency to injury makes him a target for replacement.

Bruton is good on special teams, and worth keeping for that reason.

10 - Special teams - Fire the current coach. He doesn't seem to have the teaching ability and presence to instill lane discipline against returners. That has to be drilled in, over and over again. Improving the depth at linebacker and secondary positions should help this area too.

That's all I have for now.
Great post. Not one thing that I would disagree with. That is a hell of a lot of holes to fill though.
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Old 11-30-2010, 12:23 PM   #8
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1.Define the problem.
1. Not enough talent on defense 2. Not utilizing the the talent we have to its best ability
2.Gather data/evidence.
1. dead last in most defensive catagories 2. almost dead last in running yards. Not great in the red zone. Losing the turnover battle. 3-8
3.Ask why and identify the true root cause associated with the defined problem. 1. not enough resourses spent in the trenches 2. Poor coaching with existing talent
4.Identify corrective action(s) that will prevent recurrence of the problem (your 100 year fix).
A real GM who answers only to bowlen who can A. bring in assistant coaches who know what they're doing, B. Evaluate the HC and determine a plan of action going foward, C. locate and develop talent that fits our system through free agency, the draft, or trade, and D. determine who on the team doesn't fit our system and get as much value as possible for them.
5.Identify effective solutions that prevent recurrence, are within your control, meet your goals and objectives and do not cause other problems.
1. Hire an experienced GM who answers only to Bowlen. 2. have him groom someone for.
6.Implement the recommendations.
hire shottenheimer for GM, and bring in a bright up and coming canidate to groom
7.Observe the recommended solutions to ensure effectiveness. TBD
8.Variability Reduction methodology for problem solving and problem avoidance. ?
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Old 11-30-2010, 12:56 PM   #9
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for those who are wondering, #8 Variability Reduction methodology for problem solving and problem avoidance is essentially asking for implementation of a continuous improvement program that includes predictive analysis that idenitfies potential problems before they occur and also omits processes that are not value added.

how it relates to football, well depends, if you have a problem like say injuries, I suppose implementing multiple systems, to adjust for injured players (obviously having a strong depth chart of back ups is one system used). From a more proactive approach, things like continuous fitness and nutrition regimes as well as a lot of things like team trainers do also work in this capacity. However, while a general approach for all personnel is standard, there may have to be specialized programs for individual players with special needs (like a QB with diabetes or players prone to specific types of injuries, etc). But like I said, while I like the idea of deconstructing the problem with certain analytical tools, it doesn't all apply to football exactly.

I was just bored I guess. Can you imagine if I posted this while drinking, now that would've been something. Anyway, thanks for all the good analysis and the funny stuff. I find I can learn alot from people on here, some good, some bad, and some uh requiring alcohol.
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Old 11-30-2010, 12:59 PM   #10
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Miss I likes consonance.
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Old 11-30-2010, 01:02 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by McSkillet View Post
Miss I likes consonance.
this kind of consonance: Consonance is a stylistic device, most commonly used in poetry and songs, characterized by the repetition of the same consonant two or more times in short succession, as in "pitt patter" or in "all mammals named Sam are clammy".


Cuz I don't see it. but okay.
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Old 11-30-2010, 01:03 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Miss I. View Post
this kind of consonance: Consonance is a stylistic device, most commonly used in poetry and songs, characterized by the repetition of the same consonant two or more times in short succession, as in "pitt patter" or in "all mammals named Sam are clammy".


Cuz I don't see it. but okay.
I see assonance and alliteration in the thread title, no consonance though
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Old 11-30-2010, 01:13 PM   #13
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for those who are wondering, #8 Variability Reduction methodology for problem solving and problem avoidance is essentially asking for implementation of a continuous improvement program that includes predictive analysis that idenitfies potential problems before they occur and also omits processes that are not value added.

how it relates to football, well depends, if you have a problem like say injuries, I suppose implementing multiple systems, to adjust for injured players (obviously having a strong depth chart of back ups is one system used). From a more proactive approach, things like continuous fitness and nutrition regimes as well as a lot of things like team trainers do also work in this capacity. D
Anyway, it may be a combination of consonance and assonance, but it certainly isnt dissonance.

I was simply commenting on your semi-poetic rhythm...phonetic bits in patterns. A linguist could describe it much better than I can.

Last edited by epicSocialism4tw; 11-30-2010 at 01:15 PM..
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Old 11-30-2010, 01:56 PM   #14
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Great post. Not one thing that I would disagree with. That is a hell of a lot of holes to fill though.
True dat, misturanderson. That's the bad news. The good news is that a lot of other teams have at least some of those same deficiencies.

The teams without deficiencies we call "Super Bowl winners."
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Old 11-30-2010, 01:58 PM   #15
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this kind of consonance: Consonance is a stylistic device, most commonly used in poetry and songs, characterized by the repetition of the same consonant two or more times in short succession, as in "pitt patter" or in "all mammals named Sam are clammy".


Cuz I don't see it. but okay.
The llama likes to make **** up.
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Old 11-30-2010, 02:01 PM   #16
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1. Define the problem.....failure to score touchdowns

2. Gather data/evidence....... Thunder is getting fat and lazy
3. Ask why and identify the true root cause associated with the defined problem.........No run game, because Peyton Hillis was traded for bench warmer.

4. Identify corrective action(s) that will prevent recurrence of the problem (your 100 year fix)........ Trade 1st round pick plus Brady Quinn for Peyton Hillis

5. Identify effective solutions that prevent recurrence, are within your control, meet your goals and objectives and do not cause other problems......Send McDaniels back to New England and ban hoodies from the stadium.

6. Implement the recommendations........Run Jumbo Jesus package with Hillis and Tebow.

7. Observe the recommended solutions to ensure effectiveness.........drink mass quanities of beer and watch Bronco's score points.

8. Variability Reduction methodology for problem solving and problem avoidance..........Wach game again on DVR and drink more beer.
Best evidence ever!
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Old 11-30-2010, 02:26 PM   #17
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Great thread Miss I - Thank You
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Old 11-30-2010, 02:28 PM   #18
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Hire a proven GM to oversee everything and let the coach coach
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Old 11-30-2010, 02:29 PM   #19
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Hire a proven GM to oversee everything and let the coach coach
agree

I honestly think that's the only way we can succeed without firing the coach

they got it right in KC with Haley (my God, I hate saying that)
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Old 11-30-2010, 02:31 PM   #20
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agree

I honestly think that's the only way we can succeed without firing the coach

they got it right in KC with Haley (my God, I hate saying that)
Yep and if we don't get on the right track this turn around is going to take forever
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Old 11-30-2010, 02:32 PM   #21
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Here is how a scientist would go about it:


Computer scientist: Try the same thing again but lower your expectations. (the equivalent of compiling without optimization and warning level = 0)

Biologist: Catalogue and describe the problem, then name it after yourself unless someone else has already catalogued and described it well enough.

Biochemist: Find obscure statistical method you don't understand to show there is no problem at all, and if there is a problem it is not what you thought it was.

Mathematician: Even if a problem exists which has not been rigorously proven, a solution can be proven to exist that will improve the team by an arbitrarily small quantity epsilon which is smaller than a defined but arbitrarily small quantity delta.

Quantum physicist: The team exists in a superposition of states but the probability distribution is skewed towards negative success states, if we do not observe the team for a while the wavefunction will be free to spread and populate the positive success states.

Experimental physicist: Success can be proven by building a new team which will reach higher potential at the cost of only 50 bn. dollars, this new team will have only a negligible probability of destroying the planet.

Astronomer: 3 wins is the same order of magnitude as 9 wins which is more than .500 so there is no real problem - the rest can be ascribed to experimental uncertainty and lacking measuring equipment.

Chemist: We need to isolate a pure sample of the problem in order to fully analyze it, once we can synthesize the problem we can reproduce it on a large scale which will allow us to stockpile it and if necesary release it on other teams.
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Old 11-30-2010, 02:35 PM   #22
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Quote:
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...could describe it much better than I can.
This is how you should end all of your posts.
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Old 11-30-2010, 02:58 PM   #23
epicSocialism4tw
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Originally Posted by gyldenlove View Post
Here is how a scientist would go about it:


Computer scientist: Try the same thing again but lower your expectations. (the equivalent of compiling without optimization and warning level = 0)

Biologist: Catalogue and describe the problem, then name it after yourself unless someone else has already catalogued and described it well enough.

Biochemist: Find obscure statistical method you don't understand to show there is no problem at all, and if there is a problem it is not what you thought it was.

Mathematician: Even if a problem exists which has not been rigorously proven, a solution can be proven to exist that will improve the team by an arbitrarily small quantity epsilon which is smaller than a defined but arbitrarily small quantity delta.

Quantum physicist: The team exists in a superposition of states but the probability distribution is skewed towards negative success states, if we do not observe the team for a while the wavefunction will be free to spread and populate the positive success states.

Experimental physicist: Success can be proven by building a new team which will reach higher potential at the cost of only 50 bn. dollars, this new team will have only a negligible probability of destroying the planet.

Astronomer: 3 wins is the same order of magnitude as 9 wins which is more than .500 so there is no real problem - the rest can be ascribed to experimental uncertainty and lacking measuring equipment.

Chemist: We need to isolate a pure sample of the problem in order to fully analyze it, once we can synthesize the problem we can reproduce it on a large scale which will allow us to stockpile it and if necesary release it on other teams.
Nice!
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Old 11-30-2010, 03:35 PM   #24
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The only real problem was homers thinking the Broncos were done rebuilding. Now they want coach fired when he hasn't got to develop any of his picks yet. It takes 3 yrs for picks to play out remember?

I'm still wondering how any football fans thought the defense would be that much better then last yr or yr before. I sort of thought maybe Bannan and Williams would help but I certainly didn't think it would be much.

How is Mcdaniels supposed to just come up with a front 7 in 2 yrs? Especially when the best player is out for the yr?

He's made mistakes but that is to be expected from a young new coach.
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Old 11-30-2010, 03:49 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by misturanderson View Post
Great post. Not one thing that I would disagree with. That is a hell of a lot of holes to fill though.
Yes, good post, except he seemed to forget Dumervil and Ayers are on the roster
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