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Old 09-10-2010, 04:23 PM   #1
Rulon Velvet Jones
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http://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2010_01early.php

# Denver Broncos (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
Line: Jaguars by 2.5. Total: 40.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Preseason): Jaguars -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Preseason): Jaguars -3.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 1:00 ET
Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

More college football notes:

4. After a night of drinking, I woke up around 12:45 on Saturday afternoon. I flipped on the Big Ten Network and noticed that Penn State was losing to powerhouse Youngstown State, 7-6. Feeling complete shame as a Penn State alumnus, I quickly Tweeted (follow me @walterfootball): "We are... PENN STATE. We are... BARELY BEATING YOUNGSTOWN STATE FML."

Penn State eventually was able to pull away. Unfortunately, Alabama is going to destroy my alma mater next week. I really have no idea how the Nittany Lions are ranked No. 14 in some stupid poll, but hey, I won't complain when I make a couple hundred bucks by betting against them. Man, I'm a crappy alum.

5. Outside of the Penn State-Youngstown State, USC-Hawaii and LSU-North Carolina games, I barely watched college football this past Saturday. I just didn't have the motivation. I mean, seriously, what's the point? Only a handful of teams have a chance to go undefeated this year, so games involving those squads are the only ones that matter. College football prides itself for having the "most exciting regular season," but that's complete BS. Like, who cares about LSU versus North Carolina?The finish was exciting, but neither of those schools will go undefeated this year. So why watch any of their games outside of scouting purposes?

I have an idea. Get ready, because this is going to knock your socks off. To make games like LSU-North Carolina meaningful, let's have - wait for it - a playoff system! Yes, I just thought of this myself! I think of good ideas like this all of the time.

6. Speaking of college football, if you're a fan of reading NFL Draft scouting reports or just love the NFL Draft in general, I urge you to check out a new section of the site called Scout's Notebook, where Matt McGuire breaks down game tape of various college football games a few days after they happen.

DENVER OFFENSE: I wrote the following in one of my 2010 NFL Preseason Recaps: "I'm not sure who Denver's starting quarterback is right now, but it's certainly not Kyle Orton. This man may look like Orton and talk like Orton, but he's not playing like Orton. The guy wearing Orton's jersey has inexplicably shown improved arm strength this preseason."

I wasn't joking about this. Orton looks like a completely different quarterback. I'm not saying he's John Elway or anything, but it's possible that he could lead Denver to a winning record (especially considering the schedule), as he looks really comfortable with Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal as his receivers.

And it's not like the Jaguars can stop the pass anyway. Their pass rush is abysmal - they could easily finish last in sacks again - and their secondary is in shambles. Rashean Mathis has really fallen off recently, and the team's starting safeties are Sean Considine and Anthony Smith. This has to be a joke. I mean, the Jaguars have to be hiding a talented defensive player or two somewhere in their locker room, right?

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Maurice Jones-Drew scared all 25 Jaguar fans this offseason when rumors floated around that he had knee surgery. But Jones-Drew is fine and will start this game to the chagrin of the Broncos. Denver's run defense was awful toward the end of the 2009 campaign, and while the team signed Jamal Williams and Justin Bannan this offseason, I don't expect things to improve much in this department.

With Jones-Drew ripping off long gains, it'll make life even easier for David Garrard. Elvis Dumervil is out for the year, so I'm not sure where Denver's pass rush is going to come from.

The Broncos' defensive strength is in the secondary. Champ Bailey should be able to limit Mike Sims-Walker, so Garrard will have to look toward the emerging second-year Mike Thomas pretty often. Thomas saw a ton of targets in Jacksonville's third preseason game, so maybe Jack Del Rio was preparing for this contest. Wait, did I just say "Jack Del Rio" and "preparing" in the same sentence? Just disregard everything I said about Thomas.

RECAP: Speaking of Del Rio, the laziest coach in America probably won't be game planning too hard for this contest. Del Rio, 0-10 against the spread as a favorite and 4-16 against the spread versus non-divisional foes, simply doesn't care about contests like these.

What's more damning is that owner Wayne Weaver criticized Del Rio's work ethic last December, yet he didn't fire Del Rio after the season because he didn't want to pay two coaches. Then again, I can't really blame Weaver because the Jacksonville Jaguars lost $144 million in team value in the past year.

At any rate, I fully expect Denver to prevail over the Jaguars and their half-baked game plan. I feel like the Broncos are the superior team anyway.


The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
The Jaguars are not playing a divisional opponent, so there's a very good chance they won't try.


The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Slight action on the host.
# Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 64% (28,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
# Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.
# Jaguars are 14-9 ATS in September home games.
# Jaguars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 season openers.
# Jaguars are 4-16 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
# Jaguars are 0-10 ATS as home favorites since 2008.
# Opening Line: Jaguars -1.5.
# Opening Total: 41.5.
# Weather: .


Week 1 NFL Pick: Broncos 30, Jaguars 20
Broncos +2.5 (3 Units)
Over 40 (0 Units)
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Old 09-10-2010, 04:58 PM   #2
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Lock it up.
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Old 09-10-2010, 05:05 PM   #3
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YOU lock it up
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Old 09-10-2010, 05:23 PM   #4
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I enjoyed this. The author gets a little cutsy at parts, but his analysis is right on. And I agree Del Rio is the Ted Sundquist of coaching.
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Old 09-10-2010, 05:28 PM   #5
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I just don't see us scoring 30 points, I think it'll be a lot closer. Something like 20-17
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Old 09-10-2010, 06:10 PM   #6
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Wow...he's not a big fan of Del Rio.

You guys should scroll down to what he says about Mike Martz.
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Old 09-10-2010, 06:45 PM   #7
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He wasn't a fan of McDaniels in 09. I guess he has warmed up a bit now that Orton is playing pretty well.
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Old 09-11-2010, 08:11 AM   #8
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Was pretty fun reading through some of that. I was rofl when I read this in the Raiders/Titans part:

"4. Here's an exchange between Bob Griese and Dick Stockton. Take a look at how out of it Stockton was:

Griese: When I was playing football, we had one 300-pound lineman in the NFL. One! In 2000, there were 300 300-pound linemen. Guess how many 300-pound linemen there were this year?

Stockton: 85.

Griese: There were 345 guys who were 300 pounds or more!

Great guess, Dick Stockton. You were just a tad off.
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Old 09-11-2010, 08:17 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McRulon McVelvet McJones View Post
Penn State eventually was able to pull away. Unfortunately, Alabama is going to destroy my alma mater next week. I really have no idea how the Nittany Lions are ranked No. 14 in some stupid poll, but hey, I won't complain when I make a couple hundred bucks by betting against them. Man, I'm a crappy alum.
Stopped reading there. >.<

No Pro Bama comments pls.
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Old 09-11-2010, 08:30 AM   #10
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"I'm not sure who Denver's starting quarterback is right now, but it's certainly not Kyle Orton. This man may look like Orton and talk like Orton, but he's not playing like Orton. The guy wearing Orton's jersey has inexplicably shown improved arm strength this preseason."



thats good stuff...
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Old 09-11-2010, 02:33 PM   #11
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Football games are won in the trenches.

1. Can we run the ball with a slow gimpy Moreno/Buck combo and a couple no name back ups?

2. Can we stop one of the best RB's in the league

If the answer to the above 2 questions is yes...we win!
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Old 09-11-2010, 02:41 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McRulon McVelvet McJones View Post
http://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2010_01early.php

# Denver Broncos (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
Line: Jaguars by 2.5. Total: 40.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Preseason): Jaguars -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Preseason): Jaguars -3.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 1:00 ET
Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

More college football notes:

4. After a night of drinking, I woke up around 12:45 on Saturday afternoon. I flipped on the Big Ten Network and noticed that Penn State was losing to powerhouse Youngstown State, 7-6. Feeling complete shame as a Penn State alumnus, I quickly Tweeted (follow me @walterfootball): "We are... PENN STATE. We are... BARELY BEATING YOUNGSTOWN STATE FML."

Penn State eventually was able to pull away. Unfortunately, Alabama is going to destroy my alma mater next week. I really have no idea how the Nittany Lions are ranked No. 14 in some stupid poll, but hey, I won't complain when I make a couple hundred bucks by betting against them. Man, I'm a crappy alum.

5. Outside of the Penn State-Youngstown State, USC-Hawaii and LSU-North Carolina games, I barely watched college football this past Saturday. I just didn't have the motivation. I mean, seriously, what's the point? Only a handful of teams have a chance to go undefeated this year, so games involving those squads are the only ones that matter. College football prides itself for having the "most exciting regular season," but that's complete BS. Like, who cares about LSU versus North Carolina?The finish was exciting, but neither of those schools will go undefeated this year. So why watch any of their games outside of scouting purposes?

I have an idea. Get ready, because this is going to knock your socks off. To make games like LSU-North Carolina meaningful, let's have - wait for it - a playoff system! Yes, I just thought of this myself! I think of good ideas like this all of the time.

6. Speaking of college football, if you're a fan of reading NFL Draft scouting reports or just love the NFL Draft in general, I urge you to check out a new section of the site called Scout's Notebook, where Matt McGuire breaks down game tape of various college football games a few days after they happen.

DENVER OFFENSE: I wrote the following in one of my 2010 NFL Preseason Recaps: "I'm not sure who Denver's starting quarterback is right now, but it's certainly not Kyle Orton. This man may look like Orton and talk like Orton, but he's not playing like Orton. The guy wearing Orton's jersey has inexplicably shown improved arm strength this preseason."

I wasn't joking about this. Orton looks like a completely different quarterback. I'm not saying he's John Elway or anything, but it's possible that he could lead Denver to a winning record (especially considering the schedule), as he looks really comfortable with Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal as his receivers.

And it's not like the Jaguars can stop the pass anyway. Their pass rush is abysmal - they could easily finish last in sacks again - and their secondary is in shambles. Rashean Mathis has really fallen off recently, and the team's starting safeties are Sean Considine and Anthony Smith. This has to be a joke. I mean, the Jaguars have to be hiding a talented defensive player or two somewhere in their locker room, right?

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Maurice Jones-Drew scared all 25 Jaguar fans this offseason when rumors floated around that he had knee surgery. But Jones-Drew is fine and will start this game to the chagrin of the Broncos. Denver's run defense was awful toward the end of the 2009 campaign, and while the team signed Jamal Williams and Justin Bannan this offseason, I don't expect things to improve much in this department.

With Jones-Drew ripping off long gains, it'll make life even easier for David Garrard. Elvis Dumervil is out for the year, so I'm not sure where Denver's pass rush is going to come from.

The Broncos' defensive strength is in the secondary. Champ Bailey should be able to limit Mike Sims-Walker, so Garrard will have to look toward the emerging second-year Mike Thomas pretty often. Thomas saw a ton of targets in Jacksonville's third preseason game, so maybe Jack Del Rio was preparing for this contest. Wait, did I just say "Jack Del Rio" and "preparing" in the same sentence? Just disregard everything I said about Thomas.

RECAP: Speaking of Del Rio, the laziest coach in America probably won't be game planning too hard for this contest. Del Rio, 0-10 against the spread as a favorite and 4-16 against the spread versus non-divisional foes, simply doesn't care about contests like these.

What's more damning is that owner Wayne Weaver criticized Del Rio's work ethic last December, yet he didn't fire Del Rio after the season because he didn't want to pay two coaches. Then again, I can't really blame Weaver because the Jacksonville Jaguars lost $144 million in team value in the past year.

At any rate, I fully expect Denver to prevail over the Jaguars and their half-baked game plan. I feel like the Broncos are the superior team anyway.


The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
The Jaguars are not playing a divisional opponent, so there's a very good chance they won't try.


The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Slight action on the host.
# Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 64% (28,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
# Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.
# Jaguars are 14-9 ATS in September home games.
# Jaguars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 season openers.
# Jaguars are 4-16 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
# Jaguars are 0-10 ATS as home favorites since 2008.
# Opening Line: Jaguars -1.5.
# Opening Total: 41.5.
# Weather: .


Week 1 NFL Pick: Broncos 30, Jaguars 20
Broncos +2.5 (3 Units)
Over 40 (0 Units)
Sarcasm and logic, thy name be walterfootball.com...
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Old 09-11-2010, 04:33 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamrob View Post
Football games are won in the trenches.

1. Can we run the ball with a slow gimpy Moreno/Buck combo and a couple no name back ups?

2. Can we stop one of the best RB's in the league

If the answer to the above 2 questions is yes...we win!
You do realize MJD is coming off a more serious injury than either of our backs?
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Old 09-11-2010, 07:12 PM   #14
Hamrob
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LRtagger View Post
You do realize MJD is coming off a more serious injury than either of our backs?
You do realize he carved us up in the past...right? And...you do realize we're one of the worst teams in the league against the run...right?
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