Very little of Tim Tebow's game projects to the NFL - The Orange Mane

TonyR · 06-02-2010, 10:25 AM

Once the preseason starts, we'll all get to see for ourselves how Tim Tebow looks in a Denver Broncos uniform, and we won't have to speculate based on the tape of Tebow's games at Florida.

But until then, it's always interesting to see how people who have spent a lot of time studying that tape view Tebow. And Greg Cosell, the creator and executive producer of the NFL Matchup show that we hope has a future on television, came away unimpressed from his own film study of Tebow.

"On film, there is very little in Tebow's game that projects well at this point to the NFL," Cosell tells Ross Tucker in an interview at SI.com. "I could never draft a quarterback in the first round who does not show on tape the skill set and physical attributes that are demanded in the NFL."

Cosell says that as a passer, Tebow simply isn't on an NFL level.

"Number one, he has questionable and limited arm strength with a slow and ponderous delivery," Cosell said. "Number two, in college he did not throw with timing or anticipation because the offense that he was in did not require it. In the NFL, there are certain throws in certain situations that necessitate that the ball is delivered before his receiver makes his break. He wasn't asked to do that at Florida."

In college Tebow was a threat with his feet as well as his arm, but Cosell says the way Tebow uses his feet doesn't translate well to the NFL, either.

"Thirdly, pocket movement in the NFL is far more important than running," Cosell said. "Pocket movement is the ability to move within the confines of an area about the size of a boxing ring while at the same time maintaining your downfield focus so you can deliver the football. Tebow did not exhibit that trait in college, probably because he was a runner. Nobody is a great NFL quarterback because of the way that they run."

So Cosell doesn't think Tebow has an NFL arm or NFL feet. We take it Broncos coach Josh McDaniels disagrees. And we look forward to finding out who's right when Tebow gets on the field.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...ts-to-the-nfl/

Here's a link to the article referenced, which also includes some interesting comments on McNabb/Shanahan and Campbell/Raiders:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...2/greg.cosell/

Florida_Bronco · 06-02-2010, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TonyR

[I]"Number one, he has questionable and limited arm strength

[/credibility]

no-pseudo-fan · 06-02-2010, 10:47 AM

I read this earlier. I don't know what to think about it.

The only thing I think is this: What makes one college QB become a great NFL QB and another a failure?

Florida had play Tebow play a certain way.

Everything is projection. Open in College is different than open in the NFL. Every QB has to adjust to the speed of the game. Bradford is going to struggle for a few years before he might put it together. Stafford struggled last year, and will struggle this year too. Those were #1 Picks, there are no absolutes in drafting QBs.

If scouts knew everything, Tom Brady would have been a #1 pick and Leaf would be a UDFA.

Seriously, Brett Favre was taken after Dan Macquire and Todd Marranivich.

Tombstone RJ · 06-02-2010, 10:54 AM

We shall see... Flip side is that Quinn had good mechanics and projected well to the NFL and it's not exactly going great for him. Really, we all just have to wait and see. There's a distinct possibility Tebow will never be a starting caliber NFL QB.

SonOfLe-loLang · 06-02-2010, 10:55 AM

I'd take criticism like this seriously if drafting a QB in the first round wasn't roulette. QB's are found all over the draft and players drop to later rounds because of "limitations"

TheReverend · 06-02-2010, 10:56 AM

Dagmar · 06-02-2010, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheReverend

You positive about anything with the Broncos right now?

tsiguy96 · 06-02-2010, 11:00 AM

even if he is a bust, mcdaniels obtained most of those picks by trading back. crazy that people think a coach and the #25th pick in the draft are tied toeghter that much. theres been so many 1st round busts by good drafting teams, you dont hear that **** from them. but throw tebow in the mix, its all different..

Bob's your Information Minister · 06-02-2010, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang

QB's are found all over the draft "

Yes, but most of the Super Bowl winning quarterbacks came from the first round.

v2micca · 06-02-2010, 11:05 AM

I'm largely taking a wait and see approach with Tebow. If he does well, good for us. If he doesn't.....well, we won't be the first or last team to draft a first round QB bust.

The fact is, if any other team had drafted Tebow in the first round, I get the impression that a lot of posters currently defending him would instead be silently nodding their heads in agreement with these kind of assessments.

Tebow's a Bronco, which means I'm pulling for him to come through for us. But I don't have blinders on to the fact that the team has taken a very high risk/reward approach with the pick.

Houshyamama · 06-02-2010, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by v2micca

I'm largely taking a wait and see approach with Tebow. If he does well, good for us. If he doesn't.....well, we won't be the first or last team to draft a first round QB bust.

The fact is, if any other team had drafted Tebow in the first round, I get the impression that a lot of posters currently defending him would instead be silently nodding their heads in agreement with these kind of assessments.

Tebow's a Bronco, which means I'm pulling for him to come through for us. But I don't have blinders on to the fact that the team has taken a very high risk/reward approach with the pick.

Don't look now, but someone posted something intelligent in this thread.

SonOfLe-loLang · 06-02-2010, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob's your Information Minister

Yes, but most of the Super Bowl winning quarterbacks came from the first round.

Great, well in that case, our chances increase with Tebow drafted in the first round.

And in the last ten years, Brees (2nd), Tom Brady (6th), Kurt Warner (undrafted), brad johnson (9th round). Scouting quarterbacks is the most inexact science. Too many variables.

R8R H8R · 06-02-2010, 11:13 AM

These "opinions" would mean more if we got a little perspective on thier past evaluations. Particularly, I would like to know what he thought of Vince Young & Jabba La Russell.

And just because he watches tape doesn't mean anything to me. I guarantee McD watched a hell of alot more tape than this guy did, and I think McD ought to know his own system a little better than some film hack.

I remember reading Mel Kiper's glowing evaluation of Russell, even comparing him in some ways to Elway. Meanwhile, he doesn't think much of Tebow either. So what, he usually wrong anyway.

Bob's your Information Minister · 06-02-2010, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang

Great, well in that case, our chances increase with Tebow drafted in the first round.

And in the last ten years, Brees (2nd), Tom Brady (6th), Kurt Warner (undrafted), brad johnson (9th round). Scouting quarterbacks is the most inexact science. Too many variables.

Why limit the sample size? You're just configuring the data to suit your argument.

no-pseudo-fan · 06-02-2010, 11:18 AM

Comp/Att Pct. Yds TDs Int
128/207 .618 1,991 16 6
118/215 .549 1,776 19 9
145/265 .547 2,488 20 6
157/251 .625 2,134 22 5
Totals 548/938 .584 8,389 77 26

Carries Yards Avg. TDs
123 261 2.1 2
97 458 4.7 3
110 404 3.7 6
135 438 3.2 8
Totals 465 1,561 3.4 19

TonyR · 06-02-2010, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by v2micca

The fact is, if any other team had drafted Tebow in the first round, I get the impression that a lot of posters currently defending him would instead be silently nodding their heads in agreement with these kind of assessments.

Good post, we completely agree. I'm rooting for him and the team, but if I were a betting man I'd place a lot of money on Tebow never being a competent, starting caliber NFL QB. I really, really hope I'm wrong.

SonOfLe-loLang · 06-02-2010, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob's your Information Minister

Why limit the sample size? You're just configuring the data to suit your argument.

I'm limiting the sample size to the current era because it appears scouting has become more of an "art" in the past 20 years. Point being, and this is hardly my opinion, quarterbacks are hard to scout. Too many variables go into it.

My argument is hardly in depth. Its fairly ****ing obvious that good QBs are found all over the draft.

bowtown · 06-02-2010, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob's your Information Minister

Why limit the sample size? You're just configuring the data to suit your argument.

By my count, of the 44 Superbowls, 23 were won by 1st round QBs. That seems pretty 50/50 to me.

Retire #30!!! · 06-02-2010, 11:22 AM

This first round BS still amazes me... It's like if we would have drafted Tebow 8 spots lower it would be no big deal. The funny thing is say both Tebow and Bradford flop, Denver will still get more heat... (even though we'll be paying tebow about 40-50 MILLION less then Bradford)

SonOfLe-loLang · 06-02-2010, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bowtown

By my count, of the 44 Superbowls, 23 were won by 1st round QBs. That seems pretty 50/50 to me.

And some of them have multiple wins...i dont know how that skews things

no-pseudo-fan · 06-02-2010, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by no-pseudo-fan

Comp/Att Pct. Yds TDs Int
128/207 .618 1,991 16 6
118/215 .549 1,776 19 9
145/265 .547 2,488 20 6
157/251 .625 2,134 22 5
Totals 548/938 .584 8,389 77 26

Carries Yards Avg. TDs
123 261 2.1 2
97 458 4.7 3
110 404 3.7 6
135 438 3.2 8
Totals 465 1,561 3.4 19

Donovan McNabb

SonOfLe-loLang · 06-02-2010, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Retire #30!!!

This first round BS still amazes me... It's like if we would have drafted Tebow 8 spots lower it would be no big deal. The funny thing is say both Tebow and Bradford flop, Denver will still get more heat... (even though we'll be paying tebow about 40-50 MILLION less then Bradford)

This is very true. People cling to strange arguments though

Bob's your Information Minister · 06-02-2010, 11:27 AM

Chiefsplanet has already been through this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

“Why not just draft a QB in the middle rounds?”

ChiefsCountry has compiled an impressive list of QBs who won the Super Bowl and where they were drafted.

So you want Thiggy as our quarterback.

How about these facts:
57% of the Super Bowls have been won by first round quarterbacks.
(Out of those quarterbacks only 3 were not top 10 picks)
40% of the Super Bowls won by top 5 picks.
21% have been won by 1st round quarterbacks that wasnt their original team (Dawson, Plunkett (2), Williams, Young, Dilfer)
16% of the Super Bowls were won by Montana and Brady
4% were Roger Staubuach's wins who would have went in the first if he wasnt going to Vietnam
14% were won by a 9th or lower (counting Warner who was Undrafted) and 4 of those wins were by Bart Starr & Roger Staubauch.
4% were won by second round quarterbacks
4% 3rd and 6th rounds picks that were not Montana or Brady
0% of the Super Bowls were won by a 7th round pick

http://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showpost....&postcount=129

Additionally, this was done before this year’s Super Bowl, in which another 1^st round quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, won.

Moreover, Scott Wright has an extensive breakdown of the profound failure rate of 2^nd and 3^rd round quarterbacks over the last 15 years on his site, NFLDraftCountdown.

Taco John · 06-02-2010, 11:28 AM

People shouldn't be suprised by this. The general feeling on this very forum before the draft was that Josh wouldn't be stupid enough to draft Tebow early. Of course, that tune is changed now that he's ours. But that tune isn't going to change across the rest of the league until he actually plays and proves all the scouts wrong.

I want to see the guy succeed, but there's a gnawing at the back of my brain that the guy is going to be nothing more than an expensive distraction. But I'll give Josh the benefit of a doubt. It's his system and he's getting his players. He's got at least two more seasons to prove he knows what he's doing.

But I'm definitely of the mind that if Tebow fails, then Josh failed. Josh can't take a huge gamble like this, have it fail in a flame of massive distraction, and retain his credibility. The bottom line is, we need to be in the playoffs and winning. If Tebow can't help this team do that, then Josh isn't getting it done.

Given how much Jesus loves Tebow, I'm not too worried about it at this point.

bowtown · 06-02-2010, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang

And some of them have multiple wins...i dont know how that skews things

Right I count 17 different QBs not taken in the 1st round to have won the SB, versus 14 who were.

06-02-2010, 11:18 AM	#15
no-pseudo-fan True Orange & Blue Follow me... Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: EPT Posts: 2,136 Adopt-a-Bronco: Hidalgo	Which Pro Bowl QB's numbers looked like this in College? Comp/Att Pct. Yds TDs Int 128/207 .618 1,991 16 6 118/215 .549 1,776 19 9 145/265 .547 2,488 20 6 157/251 .625 2,134 22 5 Totals 548/938 .584 8,389 77 26 Carries Yards Avg. TDs 123 261 2.1 2 97 458 4.7 3 110 404 3.7 6 135 438 3.2 8 Totals 465 1,561 3.4 19 Last edited by no-pseudo-fan; 06-02-2010 at 11:21 AM..

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06-02-2010, 10:25 AM	#1
TonyR Franchise Poster Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Mid-Atlantic Posts: 15,572	Very little of Tim Tebow's game projects to the NFL Once the preseason starts, we'll all get to see for ourselves how Tim Tebow looks in a Denver Broncos uniform, and we won't have to speculate based on the tape of Tebow's games at Florida. But until then, it's always interesting to see how people who have spent a lot of time studying that tape view Tebow. And Greg Cosell, the creator and executive producer of the NFL Matchup show that we hope has a future on television, came away unimpressed from his own film study of Tebow. "On film, there is very little in Tebow's game that projects well at this point to the NFL," Cosell tells Ross Tucker in an interview at SI.com. "I could never draft a quarterback in the first round who does not show on tape the skill set and physical attributes that are demanded in the NFL." Cosell says that as a passer, Tebow simply isn't on an NFL level. "Number one, he has questionable and limited arm strength with a slow and ponderous delivery," Cosell said. "Number two, in college he did not throw with timing or anticipation because the offense that he was in did not require it. In the NFL, there are certain throws in certain situations that necessitate that the ball is delivered before his receiver makes his break. He wasn't asked to do that at Florida." In college Tebow was a threat with his feet as well as his arm, but Cosell says the way Tebow uses his feet doesn't translate well to the NFL, either. "Thirdly, pocket movement in the NFL is far more important than running," Cosell said. "Pocket movement is the ability to move within the confines of an area about the size of a boxing ring while at the same time maintaining your downfield focus so you can deliver the football. Tebow did not exhibit that trait in college, probably because he was a runner. Nobody is a great NFL quarterback because of the way that they run." So Cosell doesn't think Tebow has an NFL arm or NFL feet. We take it Broncos coach Josh McDaniels disagrees. And we look forward to finding out who's right when Tebow gets on the field. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...ts-to-the-nfl/ Here's a link to the article referenced, which also includes some interesting comments on McNabb/Shanahan and Campbell/Raiders: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...2/greg.cosell/ Last edited by TonyR; 06-02-2010 at 10:30 AM..

06-02-2010, 10:47 AM	#3
no-pseudo-fan True Orange & Blue Follow me... Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: EPT Posts: 2,136 Adopt-a-Bronco: Hidalgo	I read this earlier. I don't know what to think about it. The only thing I think is this: What makes one college QB become a great NFL QB and another a failure? Florida had play Tebow play a certain way. Everything is projection. Open in College is different than open in the NFL. Every QB has to adjust to the speed of the game. Bradford is going to struggle for a few years before he might put it together. Stafford struggled last year, and will struggle this year too. Those were #1 Picks, there are no absolutes in drafting QBs. If scouts knew everything, Tom Brady would have been a #1 pick and Leaf would be a UDFA. Seriously, Brett Favre was taken after Dan Macquire and Todd Marranivich.

06-02-2010, 10:54 AM	#4
Tombstone RJ Ring of Famer Old School Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: In the Tetons! Posts: 19,286 Adopt-a-Bronco: WorrellWilliams	We shall see... Flip side is that Quinn had good mechanics and projected well to the NFL and it's not exactly going great for him. Really, we all just have to wait and see. There's a distinct possibility Tebow will never be a starting caliber NFL QB.

06-02-2010, 10:55 AM	#5
SonOfLe-loLang Young Buck Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 13,219 Adopt-a-Bronco: Thunder (RIP)	I'd take criticism like this seriously if drafting a QB in the first round wasn't roulette. QB's are found all over the draft and players drop to later rounds because of "limitations"

06-02-2010, 10:56 AM	#6
TheReverend www.PatrickTurley.org ^ buy this... twice Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Jacksonville, FL Posts: 33,011 Adopt-a-Bronco: Mike Shanahan

06-02-2010, 11:00 AM	#8
tsiguy96 Ring of Famer New to the Forum Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 12,559 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	even if he is a bust, mcdaniels obtained most of those picks by trading back. crazy that people think a coach and the #25th pick in the draft are tied toeghter that much. theres been so many 1st round busts by good drafting teams, you dont hear that **** from them. but throw tebow in the mix, its all different..

06-02-2010, 11:05 AM	#10
v2micca Pro Bowler Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 686	I'm largely taking a wait and see approach with Tebow. If he does well, good for us. If he doesn't.....well, we won't be the first or last team to draft a first round QB bust. The fact is, if any other team had drafted Tebow in the first round, I get the impression that a lot of posters currently defending him would instead be silently nodding their heads in agreement with these kind of assessments. Tebow's a Bronco, which means I'm pulling for him to come through for us. But I don't have blinders on to the fact that the team has taken a very high risk/reward approach with the pick.

06-02-2010, 11:13 AM	#13
R8R H8R Ring of Famer Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: So. Cal. Posts: 1,594 Adopt-a-Bronco: Virgil Green	These "opinions" would mean more if we got a little perspective on thier past evaluations. Particularly, I would like to know what he thought of Vince Young & Jabba La Russell. And just because he watches tape doesn't mean anything to me. I guarantee McD watched a hell of alot more tape than this guy did, and I think McD ought to know his own system a little better than some film hack. I remember reading Mel Kiper's glowing evaluation of Russell, even comparing him in some ways to Elway. Meanwhile, he doesn't think much of Tebow either. So what, he usually wrong anyway.

06-02-2010, 11:22 AM	#19
Retire #30!!! TD for HOF Stay Classy Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Reno, NV Posts: 79 Adopt-a-Bronco: Eric Decker	This first round BS still amazes me... It's like if we would have drafted Tebow 8 spots lower it would be no big deal. The funny thing is say both Tebow and Bradford flop, Denver will still get more heat... (even though we'll be paying tebow about 40-50 MILLION less then Bradford)

06-02-2010, 11:28 AM	#24
Taco John 24/7 Broncos In Elway I Trust Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 49,705 Adopt-a-Bronco: Peyton Manning	People shouldn't be suprised by this. The general feeling on this very forum before the draft was that Josh wouldn't be stupid enough to draft Tebow early. Of course, that tune is changed now that he's ours. But that tune isn't going to change across the rest of the league until he actually plays and proves all the scouts wrong. I want to see the guy succeed, but there's a gnawing at the back of my brain that the guy is going to be nothing more than an expensive distraction. But I'll give Josh the benefit of a doubt. It's his system and he's getting his players. He's got at least two more seasons to prove he knows what he's doing. But I'm definitely of the mind that if Tebow fails, then Josh failed. Josh can't take a huge gamble like this, have it fail in a flame of massive distraction, and retain his credibility. The bottom line is, we need to be in the playoffs and winning. If Tebow can't help this team do that, then Josh isn't getting it done. Given how much Jesus loves Tebow, I'm not too worried about it at this point.