Leaked report: Deepwater well could become unchecked gusher - The Orange Mane

mhgaffney · 05-03-2010, 03:12 AM

Leaked report: Government fears Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

By Ben Raines
April 30, 2010, 2:18PM

http://blog.al.com/live/2010/04/deep...cret_memo.html

'The following is not public' document states...

A confidential government report on the unfolding spill disaster in the Gulf makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could become an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf.

"The following is not public," reads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Emergency Response document dated April 28. "Two additional release points were found today in the tangled riser. If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become unchecked resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher than previously thought."

Asked Friday to comment on the document, NOAA spokesman Scott Smullen said that the additional leaks described were reported to the public late Wednesday night. Regarding the possibility of the spill becoming an order of magnitude larger, Smullen said, "I'm letting the document you have speak for itself."

In scientific circles, an order of magnitude means something is 10 times larger. In this case, an order of magnitude higher would mean the volume of oil coming from the well could be 10 times higher than the 5,000 barrels a day coming out now. That would mean 50,000 barrels a day, or 2.1 million gallons a day. It appears the new leaks mentioned in the Wednesday release are the leaks reported to the public late Wednesday night.

"There is no official change in the volume released but the USCG is no longer stating that the release rate is 1,000 barrels a day," continues the document, referred to as report No. 12. "Instead they are saying that they are preparing for a worst-case release and bringing all assets to bear."

The emergency document also states that the spill has grown in size so quickly that only 1 to 2 percent of it has been sprayed with dispersants.

The Press-Register obtained the emergency report from a government official. The White House, NOAA, the Coast Guard and BP Plc did not immediately return calls for comment made early this morning.

The worst-case scenario for the broken and leaking well pouring oil into the Gulf of Mexico would be the loss of the wellhead and kinked piping currently restricting the flow to 5,000 barrels -- or 210,000 gallons -- per day.

If the wellhead is lost, oil could leave the well at a much greater rate.

"Typically, a very good well in the Gulf can produce 30,000 barrels a day, but that's under control. I have no idea what an uncontrolled release could be," said Stephen Sears, chairman of the petroleum engineering department at Louisiana State University.

On Thursday, federal officials said they were preparing for the worst-case scenario but didn't elaborate.

Kinks in the piping created as the rig sank to the seafloor may be all that is preventing the Deepwater Horizon well from releasing its maximum flow. BP is now drilling a relief well as the ultimate fix. The company said Thursday that process would take up to 3 months.

"I'm not sure what's happening down there right now. I have heard there is a kink in what's called the riser. The riser is a long pipe that connects the wellhead to the rig. I really don't know if that kink is a big restriction. Is that really a big restriction? There could be another restriction further down," said LSU's Sears.

"An analogy would be if you have a kink in a garden hose. You suspect that kink is restricting the flow, but there could be another restriction or kink somewhere else closer to the faucet.

BP Plc executive Doug Suttles said Thursday the company was worried about "erosion" of the pipe at the wellhead.

Sand is an integral part of the formations that hold oil under the Gulf. That sand, carried in the oil as it shoots through the piping, is blamed for the ongoing erosion described by BP.

"The pipe could disintegrate. You've got sand getting into the pipe, it's eroding the pipe all the time, like a sandblaster," said Ron Gouget, a former oil spill response coordinator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"When the oil is removed normally, it comes out at a controlled rate. You can still have abrasive particles in that. Well, now, at this well, its coming out at fairly high velocity," Gouget continued. "Any erosive grains are abrading the inside of the pipe and all the steel that comes in contact with the liquid. It's essentially sanding away the pipe."

Gouget said the loss of a wellhead is totally unprecedented.

"How bad it could get from that, you will have a tremendous volume of oil that is going to be offgassing on the coast. Depending on how much wind is there, and how those gases build up, that's a significant health concern," he said.

The formation that was being drilled by Deepwater Horizon when it exploded and sank last week is reported to have tens of millions of barrels of oil. A barrel contains 42 gallons.

Smullen described the NOAA document as a regular daily briefing. "Your report makes it sound pretty dire. It's a scenario," he said, "It's a regular daily briefing sheet that considered different scenarios much like any first responder would."

colonelbeef · 05-03-2010, 04:05 AM

drill baby drill

kappys · 05-03-2010, 08:39 AM

I've heard that the only solution if this transpires is to slant drill into the area of the leak and fill the thing with concrete - a process that could take 2-3 months or more.

Rohirrim · 05-03-2010, 09:01 AM

Here comes $4 gas for the summer.

TailgateNut · 05-03-2010, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Here comes $4 gas for the summer.

...and $10lb 51/60 shrimp....The fishing/oystering industry is going to be decimated. This SUCKS!
Lat time I was down in Nawlins i fished the Chandeleur islands, and from what I understand they are already being hit by the slick.
....the real price of gas rears its' ugly head!

Cito Pelon · 05-03-2010, 09:54 AM

I'm feeling bad about my constant pimping fast cars and fast bikes. My thirst for oil contributed to this.

However, I haven't owned a V8 for a long time, I've always gone for the 4's and 6's. I did have a '96 F150 with the Mustang engine, the 4.6L V8 DOHC. Only V8 since my '701/2 Falcon. I've used Amsoil synthetic oil in all our vehicles since 1992, engine, transmissions, transfer case, rear ends, everything. I'm trying to rationalize away my part in this.

This Gulf spill could turn out to be an epic disaster.

HAT · 05-03-2010, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Here comes $4 gas for the summer.

Gas hits $4/Gal every summer in SoCal. I'm thinking $5 this year.

oubronco · 05-03-2010, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Here comes $4 gas for the summer.

They were saying it was going to be $4 before this disaster now what can we expect 5-6

baja · 05-03-2010, 11:07 AM

Just another event bringing us closer to the end of the world as we know it.

sirhcyennek81 · 05-03-2010, 11:13 AM

Anyone else notice the title of this thread is ironic?

Meck77 · 05-03-2010, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baja

Just another event bringing us closer to the end of the world as we know it.

The world is always changing. Not everyone is a paranoid old man like yourself. The young and the positive minded people of this planet will be just fine.

Tombstone RJ · 05-03-2010, 11:18 AM

More people are going to be driving this summer too. I can hardly wait for $4.89 a gal gas prices, wooohooo!

We've got such a screwed up oil industry. Not enough refineries for the oil already coming in and now this disaster.

baja · 05-03-2010, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meck77

The world is always changing you scared old man.

Don't you have a bus to buff or something?

Rohirrim · 05-03-2010, 11:51 AM

Now they're worried the Gulf Stream will start carrying the oil up the East Coast.

baja · 05-03-2010, 12:05 PM

This will create a new product, black shrimp.

TailgateNut · 05-03-2010, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baja

This will create a new product, black shrimp.

New recipe: Deep fried shrimp, no oil required!

...oh, and oyster will slide down even easier now!

Not really funny.

baja · 05-03-2010, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TailgateNut

New recipe: Deep fried shrimp, no oil required!

...oh, and oyster will slide down even easier now!

Not really funny.

If we were to really look into this I am sure we would find it is Bush's fault.

UberBroncoMan · 05-03-2010, 02:09 PM

I still think we should do offshore drilling... there is always risks. Still, this ****ing sucks. I feel so ****ing bad for the hardworking fishermen, and the ecosystem that's getting ****ed up.

gtown · 05-03-2010, 02:20 PM

What's troubling is that Tebow stands by and does nothing about this.

In all seriousness, the infrastructure required to retap this leak from a different point to either stop or divert it takes years to put in place. We aren't gonna be drinking BP's milkshake on this one. What a tragedy.

Tombstone RJ · 05-03-2010, 02:27 PM

If they can't stop the flow of crude coming up through the well head, then they better find a way to capture that oil at least temporarily. If it's going to take months and months and months to drill down at an angle and stop the flow, then they have to put all their efforts into capturing the crude before it saturates the ocean bed and the gulf coast waters.

Rohirrim · 05-03-2010, 02:49 PM

Too bad it won't drift South to Venezuela. Then we could just go, "Here, Hugo. Accept this oil as our gift."

Cito Pelon · 05-03-2010, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Now they're worried the Gulf Stream will start carrying the oil up the East Coast.

They should be worried.

Cito Pelon · 05-03-2010, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TailgateNut

New recipe: Deep fried shrimp, no oil required!

...oh, and oyster will slide down even easier now!

Not really funny.

No, this could be very painful. I'm not a guy that's get into hyperbole, but if this isn't corrected fast, it's gonna end up in the Atlantic, it could get fugly, the Gulf Stream carries all the way up the US East Coast, up to Newfoundland, then east to Ireland, then right down past France to complete the circle back to the Caribbean.

This problem has to be taken care of fast. Trouble is, nobody knows how to solve the problem.

Cito Pelon · 05-03-2010, 03:34 PM

This is getting real ugly. 5000 feet undersea, how to cap it? That little tiny hole, one mile down, you can't just pile rocks on top of it.

This low-tech idea to form a tower to direct the oil up to somewhere where we can at least attack the problem is a good scramble. We'll have to attack the problem from there, looks like.

PRBronco · 05-03-2010, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cito Pelon

This is getting real ugly. 5000 feet undersea, how to cap it? That little tiny hole, one mile down, you can't just pile rocks on top of it.

This low-tech idea to form a tower to direct the oil up to somewhere where we can at least attack the problem is a good scramble. We'll have to attack the problem from there, looks like.

I kept reading about some shut off mechanism down on the floor that they were trying to activate with an unmanned sub, is that officially not going to work, or are they still trying?

05-03-2010, 03:12 AM	#1
mhgaffney Ring of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 9,780	Leaked report: Deepwater well could become unchecked gusher Leaked report: Government fears Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher By Ben Raines April 30, 2010, 2:18PM http://blog.al.com/live/2010/04/deep...cret_memo.html 'The following is not public' document states... A confidential government report on the unfolding spill disaster in the Gulf makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could become an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf. "The following is not public," reads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Emergency Response document dated April 28. "Two additional release points were found today in the tangled riser. If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become unchecked resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher than previously thought." Asked Friday to comment on the document, NOAA spokesman Scott Smullen said that the additional leaks described were reported to the public late Wednesday night. Regarding the possibility of the spill becoming an order of magnitude larger, Smullen said, "I'm letting the document you have speak for itself." In scientific circles, an order of magnitude means something is 10 times larger. In this case, an order of magnitude higher would mean the volume of oil coming from the well could be 10 times higher than the 5,000 barrels a day coming out now. That would mean 50,000 barrels a day, or 2.1 million gallons a day. It appears the new leaks mentioned in the Wednesday release are the leaks reported to the public late Wednesday night. "There is no official change in the volume released but the USCG is no longer stating that the release rate is 1,000 barrels a day," continues the document, referred to as report No. 12. "Instead they are saying that they are preparing for a worst-case release and bringing all assets to bear." The emergency document also states that the spill has grown in size so quickly that only 1 to 2 percent of it has been sprayed with dispersants. The Press-Register obtained the emergency report from a government official. The White House, NOAA, the Coast Guard and BP Plc did not immediately return calls for comment made early this morning. The worst-case scenario for the broken and leaking well pouring oil into the Gulf of Mexico would be the loss of the wellhead and kinked piping currently restricting the flow to 5,000 barrels -- or 210,000 gallons -- per day. If the wellhead is lost, oil could leave the well at a much greater rate. "Typically, a very good well in the Gulf can produce 30,000 barrels a day, but that's under control. I have no idea what an uncontrolled release could be," said Stephen Sears, chairman of the petroleum engineering department at Louisiana State University. On Thursday, federal officials said they were preparing for the worst-case scenario but didn't elaborate. Kinks in the piping created as the rig sank to the seafloor may be all that is preventing the Deepwater Horizon well from releasing its maximum flow. BP is now drilling a relief well as the ultimate fix. The company said Thursday that process would take up to 3 months. "I'm not sure what's happening down there right now. I have heard there is a kink in what's called the riser. The riser is a long pipe that connects the wellhead to the rig. I really don't know if that kink is a big restriction. Is that really a big restriction? There could be another restriction further down," said LSU's Sears. "An analogy would be if you have a kink in a garden hose. You suspect that kink is restricting the flow, but there could be another restriction or kink somewhere else closer to the faucet. BP Plc executive Doug Suttles said Thursday the company was worried about "erosion" of the pipe at the wellhead. Sand is an integral part of the formations that hold oil under the Gulf. That sand, carried in the oil as it shoots through the piping, is blamed for the ongoing erosion described by BP. "The pipe could disintegrate. You've got sand getting into the pipe, it's eroding the pipe all the time, like a sandblaster," said Ron Gouget, a former oil spill response coordinator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "When the oil is removed normally, it comes out at a controlled rate. You can still have abrasive particles in that. Well, now, at this well, its coming out at fairly high velocity," Gouget continued. "Any erosive grains are abrading the inside of the pipe and all the steel that comes in contact with the liquid. It's essentially sanding away the pipe." Gouget said the loss of a wellhead is totally unprecedented. "How bad it could get from that, you will have a tremendous volume of oil that is going to be offgassing on the coast. Depending on how much wind is there, and how those gases build up, that's a significant health concern," he said. The formation that was being drilled by Deepwater Horizon when it exploded and sank last week is reported to have tens of millions of barrels of oil. A barrel contains 42 gallons. Smullen described the NOAA document as a regular daily briefing. "Your report makes it sound pretty dire. It's a scenario," he said, "It's a regular daily briefing sheet that considered different scenarios much like any first responder would."

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05-03-2010, 04:05 AM	#2
colonelbeef Purge the McScandals! Ben McDaniels needs a new family Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: New York, NY Posts: 3,856 Adopt-a-Bronco: Ben McDaniels	drill baby drill

05-03-2010, 08:39 AM	#3
kappys Ring of Famer “It will be of little avail to the Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 3,901	I've heard that the only solution if this transpires is to slant drill into the area of the leak and fill the thing with concrete - a process that could take 2-3 months or more.

05-03-2010, 09:01 AM	#4
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,852	Here comes $4 gas for the summer.

05-03-2010, 09:54 AM	#6
Cito Pelon Attack at all times . . . Happy dog at the Divide Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: AFC West Championshipville Posts: 15,207 Adopt-a-Bronco: Elvis	I'm feeling bad about my constant pimping fast cars and fast bikes. My thirst for oil contributed to this. However, I haven't owned a V8 for a long time, I've always gone for the 4's and 6's. I did have a '96 F150 with the Mustang engine, the 4.6L V8 DOHC. Only V8 since my '701/2 Falcon. I've used Amsoil synthetic oil in all our vehicles since 1992, engine, transmissions, transfer case, rear ends, everything. I'm trying to rationalize away my part in this. This Gulf spill could turn out to be an epic disaster.

05-03-2010, 11:07 AM	#9
baja It is what it Is. Pay attention. Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 53,921 Adopt-a-Bronco: Buy My Book	Just another event bringing us closer to the end of the world as we know it.

05-03-2010, 11:13 AM	#10
sirhcyennek81 Yes...swooping is bad... Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Florence, Colorado Posts: 20,681 Adopt-a-Bronco: All of them.	Anyone else notice the title of this thread is ironic?

05-03-2010, 11:18 AM	#12
Tombstone RJ Ring of Famer Old School Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: In the Tetons! Posts: 19,313 Adopt-a-Bronco: WorrellWilliams	More people are going to be driving this summer too. I can hardly wait for $4.89 a gal gas prices, wooohooo! We've got such a screwed up oil industry. Not enough refineries for the oil already coming in and now this disaster.

05-03-2010, 11:51 AM	#14
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,852	Now they're worried the Gulf Stream will start carrying the oil up the East Coast.

05-03-2010, 12:05 PM	#15
baja It is what it Is. Pay attention. Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 53,921 Adopt-a-Bronco: Buy My Book	This will create a new product, black shrimp.

05-03-2010, 02:09 PM	#18
UberBroncoMan Your Local Nostradamus 2013... the year of Sci-Fi! Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,528 Adopt-a-Bronco: Montee Ball	I still think we should do offshore drilling... there is always risks. Still, this **ing sucks. I feel so ing bad for the hardworking fishermen, and the ecosystem that's getting **ed up.

05-03-2010, 02:20 PM	#19
gtown Perennial Pro-bowler Hoya Saxa!! Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: DC Posts: 925 Adopt-a-Bronco: Juggernaut #46	What's troubling is that Tebow stands by and does nothing about this. In all seriousness, the infrastructure required to retap this leak from a different point to either stop or divert it takes years to put in place. We aren't gonna be drinking BP's milkshake on this one. What a tragedy.

05-03-2010, 02:27 PM	#20
Tombstone RJ Ring of Famer Old School Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: In the Tetons! Posts: 19,313 Adopt-a-Bronco: WorrellWilliams	If they can't stop the flow of crude coming up through the well head, then they better find a way to capture that oil at least temporarily. If it's going to take months and months and months to drill down at an angle and stop the flow, then they have to put all their efforts into capturing the crude before it saturates the ocean bed and the gulf coast waters.

05-03-2010, 02:49 PM	#21
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,852	Too bad it won't drift South to Venezuela. Then we could just go, "Here, Hugo. Accept this oil as our gift."

05-03-2010, 03:34 PM	#24
Cito Pelon Attack at all times . . . Happy dog at the Divide Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: AFC West Championshipville Posts: 15,207 Adopt-a-Bronco: Elvis	This is getting real ugly. 5000 feet undersea, how to cap it? That little tiny hole, one mile down, you can't just pile rocks on top of it. This low-tech idea to form a tower to direct the oil up to somewhere where we can at least attack the problem is a good scramble. We'll have to attack the problem from there, looks like.