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Old 04-24-2010, 11:43 AM   #1
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Default Deconstructing Tim Tebow - or - Josh McDaniels, Super Genius. Updated with more stats

You will notice something pretty quick about the people who criticize Tim Tebow. They don't do it with statistics. They don't do it by mentioning explicit problems, but instead dish generalities and platitudes.

It's amazing to see how Tebow is being characterized. His arm strength sucks, his accuracy is questionable. He is incapable of passing the ball, only rushing it. He is just a slower Michael Vick, or a shorter Vince Young.

So let's start out with the basics, cut the crap and let the numbers tell the story with regard to Tebow. To make the comparisons more interesting, we are going to compare Tebow with the Gold Standard - Peyton Manning and with the blemish on the NFL that is Jamarcus Russel. Two other SEC quarterbacks. Two quarterbacks that were ranked top five draft picks. Both Manning and Jamarcus were selected first overall. I pick them not because I think that he will be as good as Manning (a possibility though) or as bad as Russel (also a possibility)

Let's start out by just focusing on what Tebow does as a traditional quarterback (most of the statistics come from http://blog.al.com/press-register-sp...umbers_ti.html or http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...bow/index.html).

Here is Peyton's Manning record:
Comp. Att. Pct. Yards YPA TD INT Rating*
851 1,354 62.85 11,201 8.27 90 33 100.93

Here is Jamarcus Russel
Comp. Att. Pct. Yards YPA TD INT Rating*
825 1,232 66.96 8,772 7.12 76 37 95.60

Here is Tim Tebow:
Comp. Att. Pct. Yards YPA TD INT Rating*
661 985 67.11 9,286 9.43 88 15 120.72

What's the difference between this number 1 gem, and this number 1 disaster? It's the TD:INT ratio. Manning has a near 3:1 ratio, Jamarcus has a near 2:1 ratio. That ratio is now 3:11, marking the imminent end of his NFL career. The TD to Interception ratio is the most critical statistic for a quarterback.

Tim Tebow's TD:INT ratio: 5.87:1. I can already hear some critic screaming that this is a bogus number because Tebow runs as well for the TDs. So let's factor that out. Let's just look at interceptions per passing attempt. Tebow's rate of interceptions per throwing attempt is 1 interception per 66 attempts. The ratio for Manning in College? 1 interception per 44 attempt. Russell 37. How good is this number? Tebow's ratio of completions to interception is the same number as Peyton's ratio of attempts to interceptions.

The idea that Tebow has any sort of accuracy problem is ludicrous beyond belief. The numbers scream the exact opposite.

Not only that, he has higher yards per attempt then either of these two quarterbacks. Again, this factors out his running ability. That implies both efficiency as well as arm strength. at a 9.6 YPA, you basically have a 95% chance of making a first down conversion on any given play. As far as arm strength, even the most cursorary look at Youtube has him flinging balls 50+ yards to Percy Harvin.

In fact. Looking at Percy Harvin reveals a very similar counterpart to Tebow.

The big knock on Tebow is his arm mechanics, even though we have already shown above that his mechanics produce sublime results. Yet, there is a quarterback in the NFL who held the ball exactly like what Tebow did, and who owns just above every record now in the NFL. Brett Farve. Both almost side arm the football. Both have extreme wind ups, both take lots of sacks because of it. However, unlike Farve, Tebow is supremely careful with the football.

Is Tebow nothing more then a system quarterback? The real concern with system quarterbacks is that they exactly meet the requirements for that system, and are unable to adapt to a different system because of mental or physical restrictions. They have topped out their ability, and can't grow any further. System quarterbacks have perfect techniques that mask a inability to do new tasks.

So, let's ignore the reality that McDaniels system draws very heavily from Urban Meyer's (from Tebows) system. Let's look at him physically and see if he has room to grow. A big knock on high performance quarterbacks (like McCoy) is that they don't adapt well to having to line up behind center, because of visibility and ability to read. Given Tebow's height, that should not be a issue. A second concern is quarterbacks that are not used to being sacked. Not a problem with Tebow - he already took a fair number of abuse both because of concerns with his Offensive line, but also because he holds the ball longer then ideally. Speed and durability? Nope. At 240 pounds, not a issue. At 4.68 speed with the aforementioned 240 pounds he is a train, faster then any QB in the NFL today.

Tebow performed at the level he did, without having perfect technique. Just "perfecting technique" alone would give him room to grow and expand.

So basically, we just drafted a highly mobile quarterback, has a delivery mechanism like Brett Farve, is supremely efficient, has a great arm, has college interception numbers that make Peyton Manning blush.

Is there downside? Yes, but we have Orton and Quinn around if this doesn't work. But if it does work? This guy could be one of the all time greats. It's not a mistake that he is already considered one of the all time, if not the all time great in College football.

I've been brutal to Coach McDaniels the last few years, but here is a decision that might just earn him the title of Genius, that he seems to think he deserves.

[Update]
I'm in love with the interceptions per attempt metric. Here are a whole bunch more:


TD/INT, and Passing attemtps/INT are highly predictive of NFL success when there are a lot of attempts. For example:
Vince Young - 25 attempts per interception.
Derek Anderson - 26 attempts per interceptoin.
Tim Couch - 33 attempts per interception.
Jay Cutler - 35 attempts per interception.
Jamarcus Russel - 37 attempts per interception.
Drew Brees - 38 attempts per interception(*).
Brady Quinn - 40 attempts per interception.
Peyton Manning - 41 attempts per interception.
Tom Brady - 42 attempts per interception.
Phillip Rivers - 50 attempts per interception.
Kyle Orton - 52 attempts per interception.
Tim Tebow - 66 attempts per interception.

Last edited by lostknight; 04-26-2010 at 11:19 AM..
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Old 04-24-2010, 11:46 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lostknight View Post
I've been brutal to Coach McDaniels the last few years, but here is a decision that might just earn him the title of Genius, that he seems to think he deserves.
Ruined a perfectly good thread.
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Old 04-24-2010, 11:47 AM   #3
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Look, I have been incredibly skeptical of Josh. This is the first decision of his, that the more I dig into it, the more I think it is absolutely brilliant.
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Old 04-24-2010, 11:49 AM   #4
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We already read the CHFF article 2 days ago bro.
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Old 04-24-2010, 11:54 AM   #5
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Old 04-24-2010, 11:54 AM   #6
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I don't think they went into ypa/interceptions per passing attempt, or Farve, but if they did I apologize.

It doesn't change the fact that the potential here is staggering.
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Old 04-24-2010, 11:56 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by lostknight View Post

It doesn't change the fact that the potential here is staggering.
Agreed...Hard not to like the kid (And I'm a Pac-10 homer).

McD too for that matter for having the balls to go all in.
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Old 04-24-2010, 12:00 PM   #8
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Again, Tebow is not like your typical QB who is doesn't make it at the position, has no value in the NFL. Tebow would still have much use as a runner/receiver in the NFL and that alone got him drafted high IMO.
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Old 04-24-2010, 12:01 PM   #9
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to be fair the reason Manning is so good is because of the work he puts in and his high football IQ

while Russell sucks because he is a dumb**** and doesnt even pretend to care about his job
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Old 04-24-2010, 12:02 PM   #10
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Again, Tebow is not like your typical QB who is doesn't make it at the position, has no value in the NFL. Tebow would still have much use as a runner/receiver in the NFL and that alone got him drafted high IMO.
It gives him a migration strategy into the QB position. I expect to see Tebow lining up for 5-10 plays a game to get started with.
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Old 04-24-2010, 12:04 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Br0nc0Buster View Post
to be fair the reason Manning is so good is because of the work he puts in and his high football IQ

while Russell sucks because he is a dumb**** and doesnt even pretend to care about his job
Everything we heard about Tebow, including his famous Speech, indicates that work ethic and football IQ will not be a problem. If it's a question about motivation, I don't think you can fault him on this.
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Old 04-24-2010, 12:12 PM   #12
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Tebow is a project... so what, McNabb, McNair, and a host of other college QB's coming to the pro's. Give him time and see what he can do. McD is willing to weight his career with Tebow so we should get behind the move. If Tebow is a success and we win, awesome. If Tebow fails, and we lose, McDaniels will be fired over it and we get a new head coach. Win/Win situation in my eyes.

Truly the one's that dislike Tebow just hate the values in his life(or their lack there of)... not the actual player. QFT.
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Old 04-24-2010, 12:17 PM   #13
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Good analysis. Here's another like it: http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=91069
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Old 04-24-2010, 02:16 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lostknight View Post
You will notice something pretty quick about the people who criticize Tim Tebow. They don't do it with statistics. They don't do it by mentioning explicit problems, but instead dish generalities and platitudes.

It's amazing to see how Tebow is being characterized. His arm strength sucks, his accuracy is questionable. He is incapable of passing the ball, only rushing it. He is just a slower Michael Vick, or a shorter Vince Young.

So let's start out with the basics, cut the crap and let the numbers tell the story with regard to Tebow. To make the comparisons more interesting, we are going to compare Tebow with the Gold Standard - Peyton Manning and with the blemish on the NFL that is Jamarcus Russel. Two other SEC quarterbacks. Two quarterbacks that were ranked top five draft picks. Both Manning and Jamarcus were selected first overall. I pick them not because I think that he will be as good as Manning (a possibility though) or as bad as Russel (also a possibility)

Let's start out by just focusing on what Tebow does as a traditional quarterback (most of the statistics come from http://blog.al.com/press-register-sp...umbers_ti.html or http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...bow/index.html).

Here is Peyton's Manning record:
Comp. Att. Pct. Yards YPA TD INT Rating*
851 1,354 62.85 11,201 8.27 90 33 100.93

Here is Jamarcus Russel
Comp. Att. Pct. Yards YPA TD INT Rating*
825 1,232 66.96 8,772 7.12 76 37 95.60

Here is Tim Tebow:
Comp. Att. Pct. Yards YPA TD INT Rating*
661 985 67.11 9,286 9.43 88 15 120.72

What's the difference between this number 1 gem, and this number 1 disaster? It's the TD:INT ratio. Manning has a near 3:1 ratio, Jamarcus has a near 2:1 ratio. That ratio is now 3:11, marking the imminent end of his NFL career. The TD to Interception ratio is the most critical statistic for a quarterback.

Tim Tebow's TD:INT ratio: 5.87:1. I can already hear some critic screaming that this is a bogus number because Tebow runs as well for the TDs. So let's factor that out. Let's just look at interceptions per passing attempt. Tebow's rate of interceptions per throwing attempt is 1 interception per 66 attempts. The ratio for Manning in College? 1 interception per 44 attempt. Russell 37. How good is this number? Tebow's ratio of completions to interception is the same number as Peyton's ratio of attempts to interceptions.

The idea that Tebow has any sort of accuracy problem is ludicrous beyond belief. The numbers scream the exact opposite.

Not only that, he has higher yards per attempt then either of these two quarterbacks. Again, this factors out his running ability. That implies both efficiency as well as arm strength. at a 9.6 YPA, you basically have a 95% chance of making a first down conversion on any given play. As far as arm strength, even the most cursorary look at Youtube has him flinging balls 50+ yards to Percy Harvin.

In fact. Looking at Percy Harvin reveals a very similar counterpart to Tebow.

The big knock on Tebow is his arm mechanics, even though we have already shown above that his mechanics produce sublime results. Yet, there is a quarterback in the NFL who held the ball exactly like what Tebow did, and who owns just above every record now in the NFL. Brett Farve. Both almost side arm the football. Both have extreme wind ups, both take lots of sacks because of it. However, unlike Farve, Tebow is supremely careful with the football.

Is Tebow nothing more then a system quarterback? The real concern with system quarterbacks is that they exactly meet the requirements for that system, and are unable to adapt to a different system because of mental or physical restrictions. They have topped out their ability, and can't grow any further. System quarterbacks have perfect techniques that mask a inability to do new tasks.

So, let's ignore the reality that McDaniels system draws very heavily from Urban Meyer's (from Tebows) system. Let's look at him physically and see if he has room to grow. A big knock on high performance quarterbacks (like McCoy) is that they don't adapt well to having to line up behind center, because of visibility and ability to read. Given Tebow's height, that should not be a issue. A second concern is quarterbacks that are not used to being sacked. Not a problem with Tebow - he already took a fair number of abuse both because of concerns with his Offensive line, but also because he holds the ball longer then ideally. Speed and durability? Nope. At 240 pounds, not a issue. At 4.68 speed with the aforementioned 240 pounds he is a train, faster then any QB in the NFL today.

Tebow performed at the level he did, without having perfect technique. Just "perfecting technique" alone would give him room to grow and expand.

So basically, we just drafted a highly mobile quarterback, has a delivery mechanism like Brett Farve, is supremely efficient, has a great arm, has college interception numbers that make Peyton Manning blush.

Is there downside? Yes, but we have Orton and Quinn around if this doesn't work. But if it does work? This guy could be one of the all time greats. It's not a mistake that he is already considered one of the all time, if not the all time great in College football.

I've been brutal to Coach McDaniels the last few years, but here is a decision that might just earn him the title of Genius, that he seems to think he deserves.
I think that the comparison with Favre's throwing motion is interesting and helpful. I would say that Tebow's motion looks like something somewhere between Favre and Rivers, both of whom have been successful in the league. One important difference, though: Tebow's arm is not nearly as strong as Favre's.
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Old 04-24-2010, 06:35 PM   #15
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He certainly is capable of making some 50 yard passes. Given the duration of passes shrinking rather then growing, I think it's fine.
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Old 04-24-2010, 06:49 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by OCBronco View Post
I think that the comparison with Favre's throwing motion is interesting and helpful. I would say that Tebow's motion looks like something somewhere between Favre and Rivers, both of whom have been successful in the league. One important difference, though: Tebow's arm is not nearly as strong as Favre's.
Comparing Favre's motion to Tebow is ludicrous, Favre does throw the ball at time with a low getoff point he never dips the ball on the windup, that is one advantage of having good armstrength. The same is true for Rivers, the problem with Tebow is not to much his delivery as his long windup which leaves him exposed to hits and leaves the ball unprotected longer.
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Old 04-24-2010, 08:25 PM   #17
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I think that the comparison with Favre's throwing motion is interesting and helpful. I would say that Tebow's motion looks like something somewhere between Favre and Rivers, both of whom have been successful in the league. One important difference, though: Tebow's arm is not nearly as strong as Favre's.
And neither is as strong as Cutler.
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Old 04-24-2010, 08:39 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by lostknight View Post
You will notice something pretty quick about the people who criticize Tim Tebow. They don't do it with statistics. They don't do it by mentioning explicit problems, but instead dish generalities and platitudes.

It's amazing to see how Tebow is being characterized. His arm strength sucks, his accuracy is questionable. He is incapable of passing the ball, only rushing it. He is just a slower Michael Vick, or a shorter Vince Young.

So let's start out with the basics, cut the crap and let the numbers tell the story with regard to Tebow. To make the comparisons more interesting, we are going to compare Tebow with the Gold Standard - Peyton Manning and with the blemish on the NFL that is Jamarcus Russel. Two other SEC quarterbacks. Two quarterbacks that were ranked top five draft picks. Both Manning and Jamarcus were selected first overall. I pick them not because I think that he will be as good as Manning (a possibility though) or as bad as Russel (also a possibility)

Let's start out by just focusing on what Tebow does as a traditional quarterback (most of the statistics come from http://blog.al.com/press-register-sp...umbers_ti.html or http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...bow/index.html).

Here is Peyton's Manning record:
Comp. Att. Pct. Yards YPA TD INT Rating*
851 1,354 62.85 11,201 8.27 90 33 100.93

Here is Jamarcus Russel
Comp. Att. Pct. Yards YPA TD INT Rating*
825 1,232 66.96 8,772 7.12 76 37 95.60

Here is Tim Tebow:
Comp. Att. Pct. Yards YPA TD INT Rating*
661 985 67.11 9,286 9.43 88 15 120.72

What's the difference between this number 1 gem, and this number 1 disaster? It's the TD:INT ratio. Manning has a near 3:1 ratio, Jamarcus has a near 2:1 ratio. That ratio is now 3:11, marking the imminent end of his NFL career. The TD to Interception ratio is the most critical statistic for a quarterback.

Tim Tebow's TD:INT ratio: 5.87:1. I can already hear some critic screaming that this is a bogus number because Tebow runs as well for the TDs. So let's factor that out. Let's just look at interceptions per passing attempt. Tebow's rate of interceptions per throwing attempt is 1 interception per 66 attempts. The ratio for Manning in College? 1 interception per 44 attempt. Russell 37. How good is this number? Tebow's ratio of completions to interception is the same number as Peyton's ratio of attempts to interceptions.

The idea that Tebow has any sort of accuracy problem is ludicrous beyond belief. The numbers scream the exact opposite.

Not only that, he has higher yards per attempt then either of these two quarterbacks. Again, this factors out his running ability. That implies both efficiency as well as arm strength. at a 9.6 YPA, you basically have a 95% chance of making a first down conversion on any given play. As far as arm strength, even the most cursorary look at Youtube has him flinging balls 50+ yards to Percy Harvin.

In fact. Looking at Percy Harvin reveals a very similar counterpart to Tebow.

The big knock on Tebow is his arm mechanics, even though we have already shown above that his mechanics produce sublime results. Yet, there is a quarterback in the NFL who held the ball exactly like what Tebow did, and who owns just above every record now in the NFL. Brett Farve. Both almost side arm the football. Both have extreme wind ups, both take lots of sacks because of it. However, unlike Farve, Tebow is supremely careful with the football.

Is Tebow nothing more then a system quarterback? The real concern with system quarterbacks is that they exactly meet the requirements for that system, and are unable to adapt to a different system because of mental or physical restrictions. They have topped out their ability, and can't grow any further. System quarterbacks have perfect techniques that mask a inability to do new tasks.

So, let's ignore the reality that McDaniels system draws very heavily from Urban Meyer's (from Tebows) system. Let's look at him physically and see if he has room to grow. A big knock on high performance quarterbacks (like McCoy) is that they don't adapt well to having to line up behind center, because of visibility and ability to read. Given Tebow's height, that should not be a issue. A second concern is quarterbacks that are not used to being sacked. Not a problem with Tebow - he already took a fair number of abuse both because of concerns with his Offensive line, but also because he holds the ball longer then ideally. Speed and durability? Nope. At 240 pounds, not a issue. At 4.68 speed with the aforementioned 240 pounds he is a train, faster then any QB in the NFL today.

Tebow performed at the level he did, without having perfect technique. Just "perfecting technique" alone would give him room to grow and expand.

So basically, we just drafted a highly mobile quarterback, has a delivery mechanism like Brett Farve, is supremely efficient, has a great arm, has college interception numbers that make Peyton Manning blush.

Is there downside? Yes, but we have Orton and Quinn around if this doesn't work. But if it does work? This guy could be one of the all time greats. It's not a mistake that he is already considered one of the all time, if not the all time great in College football.

I've been brutal to Coach McDaniels the last few years, but here is a decision that might just earn him the title of Genius, that he seems to think he deserves.
Comparing apples to oranges. May I have my five minutes back?
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Old 04-24-2010, 08:44 PM   #19
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Every drafted QB is a project.

We either got a failed QB experiment which every team in the league has a busload of or we may have had the steal of the draft. Statistics tend towards the latter. It ultimately cost us a pick or two most of which was earned by trading down from 11.

Ballsy pick and on paper, actually looks great. If we get a competent NFL caliber QB with ridiculous speed and halfback goal line characteristics ... oh **** ... wow ...

Because of the backlash ..... I hope Tebow serves up a big plate of crow to Prisco and the gang .... and even though it's not in his nature, I hope he names names and calls them all on it.
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Old 04-24-2010, 09:40 PM   #20
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HERE is what I do not understand....

His mechanics blow ass- we know this...



But so freaking what. He makes it work. Who gives a dam about the mechanics. He throws the ball hard, accurately what else do you need. I dont care if it doesnt look pretty, because it works!!


Should we take back the immaculate reception by stokely last year? because it didnt look pretty? Should the seahawks? take back the muffed hold by tony romo a few years back because he dropped it and it didnt look pretty.


No because a win is a win and a catch is a catch. I dont care if Tebow farts the football for a completion. As long as he keeps winning and doing what he has been doing. I do not care. It works for him and thats all that matters.
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Old 04-24-2010, 09:53 PM   #21
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HERE is what I do not understand....

His mechanics blow ass- we know this...



But so freaking what. He makes it work. Who gives a dam about the mechanics. He throws the ball hard, accurately what else do you need. I dont care if it doesnt look pretty, because it works!!


Should we take back the immaculate reception by stokely last year? because it didnt look pretty? Should the seahawks? take back the muffed hold by tony romo a few years back because he dropped it and it didnt look pretty.


No because a win is a win and a catch is a catch. I dont care if Tebow farts the football for a completion. As long as he keeps winning and doing what he has been doing. I do not care. It works for him and thats all that matters.
My point exactly. I was encouraged listening to McDaniels today. I think he understands that Tebows pitching motion (which any school kid can see looks a lot like Farves) has ramifications on his stats, and his stats are very very good. Trying to turn this guy into bradford would be a huge mistake.
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Old 04-24-2010, 09:57 PM   #22
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My point exactly. I was encouraged listening to McDaniels today. I think he understands that Tebows pitching motion (which any school kid can see looks a lot like Farves) has ramifications on his stats, and his stats are very very good. Trying to turn this guy into bradford would be a huge mistake.


Yup, refine his skills if you can, hone some things, but dont make him something he is not.
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Old 04-26-2010, 11:21 AM   #23
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I updated the thread with stats for a lot more college qbs. I don't have all of the records, and the metric breaks down a lot when there are a few passes (under 1000) thrown. Otherwise, I think it's a pretty impressive correlation between college success and NFL success.
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