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Old 04-23-2010, 03:48 AM   #1
Dukes
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Default Cold Hard Football Facts' Take on Tebow

Credit Garcia for posting in another thread. Just thought it was worth it's own thread.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...rterbacks.html
A tale of six quarterbacks

The glittering genius of the Cold, Hard Football Facts is that we admire only numbers and productivity.

We put little stock in a player’s pedigree. And we put even less stock in the “pundits” and their outdated weapon of choice, the opinion, which bounces off the steely armor of our analysis so helplessly, like nothing but little pebbles of pigskin overwhelmed by our M1A1 Abrams tank of truth.

So it is today that we dive into one of the biggest stories of the 2010 NFL draft by looking at the college productivity of six legendary quarterbacks here in the modern pass-happy era.

Six Big-Name College Quarterbacks
Player Comp. Att. Pct. Yards YPA TD INT Rating*
Player A 851 1,354 62.85 11,201 8.27 90 33 100.93
Player B 825 1,232 66.96 8,772 7.12 76 37 95.60
Player C 841 1,383 60.81 10,286 7.44 84 36 93.15
Player D 493 797 61.86 6,625 8.31 52 21 99.04
Player E 564 986 57.20 7,731 7.84 51 33 85.72
Player F 661 985 67.11 9,286 9.43 88 15 120.72


The numbers aren't even close. One player dominates. One player leaps screaming off the list, like Horshack on "Welcome Back Kotter" when he knew the answer to a question: “Pick me! Pick me! Pick me!”

That dominant individual, of course, is Player F. This quarterback:
•Was the most accurate of any of these six passers.
•Dominated the average per attempt category – our favorite number – by better than 1 yard per attempt over the No. 2 player on the list.
•Boasts a passer rating so sky high it defies description, nearly 20 full points better than the No. 2 player on the list.
Elsewhere, Player F was No. 2 in total TD passes – but easily No. 1 in TD pass percentage. Player F threw a TD on 8.9 percent of his pass attempts – easily outpacing Player A, who threw a touchdown on 6.6 percent of his pass attempts.

Finally, Player F protected the ball much better than any of the other quarterbacks on this list. Player F threw an interception on just 1.52 percent of attempts – easily outpacing Player C, who threw an interception on 2.60 percent of attempts. And you know what we've always told you: quarterbacks who throw picks lose games. Quarterbacks who don't throw picks win games.

Dying to know who they are, arentcha? Well, the numbers represent the college career stats of six of the greatest quarterbacks in the modern history of the SEC. Here goes:
•Player A is Peyton Manning. He played for Tennessee in the SEC and was the No. 1 overall pick in the 1998 draft.
•Player B is Tim Couch. He played for Kentucky in the SEC and was the No. 1 overall pick in the 1999 draft.
•Player C is Eli Manning. He played for Ole Miss in the SEC and was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2004 draft.
•Player D is JaMarcus Russell. He played for LSU in the SEC and was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft.
•Player E is Matt Stafford. He played for Georgia in the SEC and was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 draft.
•And, finally, Player F is Tim Tebow. He played for Florida and the SEC and will be far from the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft.
The list tells us many things.

First, it tells us that the SEC has dominated the draft in recent years, as you probably already knew. But five guys at the most important position on the field taken No. 1 overall in a 12-year stretch is a remarkable accomplishment, even by the lofty standards of the dominant conference in college football.

Second, it tells us that NFL talent evaluators are out of their ****ing minds.

Tebow, as you know, is the biggest question mark in the 2010 draft among the pigskin punditistas. He's the highest rated passer in the history of SEC football. He was easily a better passer than Peyton Manning or Matt Stafford or Tim Couch or any of the guys whose ability to pass was never really questioned by NFL talent analysts.

And yet NFL evalautors for some reason aren't sold on Tebow. Couch and Russell are two bona fide NFL busts, even though pro football talent evaluators couldn't usher them into the league fast enough. Yet these same talent evaluators harbor grave doubts about the ability of the greatest and most efficient passer in SEC history to pass the ball at the next level.
Consider, Charley Casserly, the longtime NFL executive turned NFL Network analyst, who was on the air Thursday telling the world that Tebow will go no higher than the fourth round of the draft next month.

Other executives seem obsessed by the trivia over Tebow’s mechanics, while overlooking the rather irrefutable fact that he dominated college football like no player in memory and despite the fact that he was, by any objective measure, a much better passer than Couch, Russell, Stafford, and either of the Manning brothers.

Tebow not only passed the ball far more effectively than any of these No. 1 overall picks. It pays to remember that, in his spare time, he set the SEC career record for rushing touchdowns. Oh, and he won a Heisman Trophy and two national titles. Other than that, he didn't do much.

The anti-Tebow crowd will argue, weakly, that he was surrounded by greater talent than those other passers.

The anti-Tebow crowd, of course, has its head up its ass.

Let’s look at Peyton Manning. Last we remember, he played with not one, not two but three receivers taken in the top two rounds of the draft: Joey Kent, Marcus Nash and Peerless Price. His team was so loaded with talent that it won the national title the year after he left.

JaMarcus Russell played with arguably the most talented teams of the past decade. They won national titles in 2003 and 2007 and he watched as 34 of his LSU teammates were grabbed in the NFL draft.

Stafford? Well, Georgia is a prolific pipeline of NFL talent. Stafford was one of three starting offensive players from the 2008 Bulldogs taken in the first 50 picks of the 2009 draft (Knowshon Moreno, Mohamed Massaquoi).

Ole Miss is hardly the SEC’s best hotbed of talent. But almost the entire offensive line that protected Eli Manning was good enough to earn a shot in the NFL, including not one but two of his centers: Ben Claxton (2003 draft) and Chris Spencer (2005), one of a small handful of centers ever taken in the first round of the NFL draft.

Couch? Sure, he didn't have much around him. In fact, he's one of just three first-round draft picks to come out of Kentucky in the last 25 years. But in any case, his passing numbers pale in comparison to those produced by Tebow.

The anti-Tebow crowd could also throw out the old David Klingler argument. You know, "anybody can put up big stats in the college game."

But Tebow didn't just put up big stats ... he put up supremely efficient stats. He was more accurate, and produced more big passing plays, and was more likely to put the ball in the end zone, and more likely to keep it out of the hands of opposing defenders, than any of the recent collection of No. 1 passing phenoms to come out of the SEC.

Tebow was, by any measure, a better player, a better quarterback and, yes, a better passer than any of these No. 1 picks.

We understand that college success does not translate to NFL success. The long history of Heisman winners turned NFL busts underscores that argument.

However, in the gamble that is the NFL draft, we'll roll the dice on the proven and unmatched passing talent of Tebow rather than on the sorry track record of pro football talent evaluators.
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Old 04-23-2010, 04:41 AM   #2
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Great stuff! Thanks for making this it's own thread.
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Old 04-23-2010, 04:46 AM   #3
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Right on D. I am not saying he'll be the greatest ever, but that right there says he more than has the potential. He has the mental tools to succeed at anything he does.
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Old 04-23-2010, 04:49 AM   #4
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Aah thats what I needed.
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Old 04-23-2010, 04:50 AM   #5
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Quote:
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Right on D. I am not saying he'll be the greatest ever, but that right there says he more than has the potential. He has the mental tools to succeed at anything he does.
Completely agree. I had no idea his stats were so impressive. I never cared to look them up since I never thought we'd draft him. Stats are just stats but damn his are impressive. All you ever hear about him is he was never going to be a NFL QB and that he's religious. Here's to hoping he can turn into Steve Young 2.0
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Old 04-23-2010, 05:16 AM   #6
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I'm pretty sure all the hatred comes from his outspoken beliefs. Ridiculous.
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Old 04-23-2010, 05:17 AM   #7
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incredible information. Wow thanks for that
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Old 04-23-2010, 05:38 AM   #8
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I'm pretty sure all the hatred comes from his outspoken beliefs. Ridiculous.
and a winner...people always like to root for someone who has had a ton of success to fail.
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Old 04-23-2010, 05:56 AM   #9
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I was not in love with the pick untill I read that article. When i did I laughed my ass off and started thinking about how legendary this draft will be if Tebow reaches even 75% of his potential....

People should note he got picked around about where Dan Marino got picked in '83.....just saying......

VERY entertaining article though - they don't beat around the bush do they?

Quote:
We put little stock in a player’s pedigree. And we put even less stock in the “pundits” and their outdated weapon of choice, the opinion, which bounces off the steely armor of our analysis so helplessly, like nothing but little pebbles of pigskin overwhelmed by our M1A1 Abrams tank of truth.
Quote:
The list tells us many things.

First, it tells us that the SEC has dominated the draft in recent years, as you probably already knew. But five guys at the most important position on the field taken No. 1 overall in a 12-year stretch is a remarkable accomplishment, even by the lofty standards of the dominant conference in college football.

Second, it tells us that NFL talent evaluators are out of their ****ing minds.
...just a couple of my favourite quotes!!
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Old 04-23-2010, 06:13 AM   #10
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So when he finally starts a game..what the hell do we do with Clady now?!?! Move him to RT?!?!
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Old 04-23-2010, 06:16 AM   #11
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So when he finally starts a game..what the hell do we do with Clady now?!?! Move him to RT?!?!
It'll take some adjustments from the RT, but does it matter? I mean really...really matter? Your tackles have to protect the QB whether it be from the right or left.
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Old 04-23-2010, 06:49 AM   #12
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Cold hard facts
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Old 04-23-2010, 06:52 AM   #13
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What's the point of continually referencing this article? Yes, Tim Tebow is widely regarded as one of the greatest college players of all-time. His success, along with gaudy numbers, are well known. The question is whether or not his talent translates to success in the pros. College does not equal NFL.
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Old 04-23-2010, 07:01 AM   #14
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So when he finally starts a game..what the hell do we do with Clady now?!?! Move him to RT?!?!
Nah. We'll teach Tebow to throw right handed.
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Old 04-23-2010, 07:07 AM   #15
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CHFF had Denver as the Superbowl winner last year. Just saying.
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Old 04-23-2010, 07:12 AM   #16
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So when he finally starts a game..what the hell do we do with Clady now?!?! Move him to RT?!?!
Harris was a left tackle in college and most thought he projected best to LT in the pros as well. He's got all the skills needed to handle speed rushers.

And that only matters if teams flip their rushers over to the other side. I bet most teams opt not to. Its not practical to ask a guy who's developed an entire set of pass rush moves with the OT outside one shoulder to suddenly mirror all those moves without any let down in play.

DEs HATE flipping sides. They'll hate it even more when they realize that Harris is a hell of a pass blocker himself.
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Old 04-23-2010, 07:15 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slyinky View Post
What's the point of continually referencing this article? Yes, Tim Tebow is widely regarded as one of the greatest college players of all-time. His success, along with gaudy numbers, are well known. The question is whether or not his talent translates to success in the pros. College does not equal NFL.
You are correct to a point. It shows a trend of success. Nothing more and nothing less. HE has the arm strength, needs to work on his mechanics, and his the finest competitor in the draft. That's it.
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Old 04-23-2010, 07:20 AM   #18
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You are correct to a point. It shows a trend of success. Nothing more and nothing less. HE has the arm strength, needs to work on his mechanics, and his the finest competitor in the draft. That's it.
I wouldn't anoint him as the savior just yet.
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Old 04-23-2010, 07:25 AM   #19
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So when he finally starts a game..what the hell do we do with Clady now?!?! Move him to RT?!?!
I think the notion that Clady is devalued with a lefty QB is overstated. OL have to protect regardless. And if you're going to downgrade Clady's impact with a lefty QB, you also have to downgrade every pass rusher who's used to rushing from the right side.
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Old 04-23-2010, 07:26 AM   #20
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Quote:
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What's the point of continually referencing this article? Yes, Tim Tebow is widely regarded as one of the greatest college players of all-time. His success, along with gaudy numbers, are well known. The question is whether or not his talent translates to success in the pros. College does not equal NFL.
+1

No one ever said Tebow wasn’t a great college QB.

But how is this supposed to be comforting when you use guys like Couch and Russell as benchmarks for comparisons? They had great collegiate careers too, and what did it get them? I’m not sold on Tebow transitioning successfully, and bottom-line for me is I won’t be until he shows he can do it. Not saying he can’t, just that I’m not sure he will.
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Old 04-23-2010, 07:34 AM   #21
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Speaking of college stats, the following QBs have more yards than Tebow:

Sam Bradford, Colt MCcoy, Armanti Edwards, John Skelton, Dan Lefevour and Tim Hiller (all made it 5 digits except for Edwards)

Lefevour, Mccoy and Hiller also had more TDs than Tebow, and Bradford had the same number.

Lets not pretend that Tebow had all dominating stats, he had very good stats but nothing more.
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Old 04-23-2010, 07:34 AM   #22
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Quote:
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I wouldn't anoint him as the savior just yet.
And I am not. I am just saying it's not as bad as everyone seems to be projecting. I would have loved it had he lasted until the 3rd round, but the coach took a chance. Hopefully it pans out.
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Old 04-23-2010, 07:35 AM   #23
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+1

No one ever said Tebow wasn’t a great college QB.

But how is this supposed to be comforting when you use guys like Couch and Russell as benchmarks for comparisons? They had great collegiate careers too, and what did it get them? I’m not sold on Tebow transitioning successfully, and bottom-line for me is I won’t be until he shows he can do it. Not saying he can’t, just that I’m not sure he will.
I think the point was that Tebow grossly outplayed both of those guys in college, yet NFL 'draft gurus' claim they where worthy of the #1 overall pick while Tebow was not. Hence, draft gurus don't know ****.

Tebow's mechanical problems aren't much different from Vince Young's and he was the #3 overall pick. Tebow is a superior athlete and has proven that he has more mental toughness/acuity than Young as well.

But Young was the #3 pick, Tebow was the #25th. While Tebow crushed Young's numbers with more starts.
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Old 04-23-2010, 07:35 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gyldenlove View Post
Speaking of college stats, the following QBs have more yards than Tebow:

Sam Bradford, Colt MCcoy, Armanti Edwards, John Skelton, Dan Lefevour and Tim Hiller (all made it 5 digits except for Edwards)

Lefevour, Mccoy and Hiller also had more TDs than Tebow, and Bradford had the same number.

Lets not pretend that Tebow had all dominating stats, he had very good stats but nothing more.
He also has two National Championships and was a key part to both of them playing in the toughest conference with toughest defesnes in all all college football.
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Old 04-23-2010, 07:37 AM   #25
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Tebow should get along just fine w Dawkins.
I'm skeptical but I'm hopeful that McD will come up with some interesting formations featuring Tebow. I can see Tebow running our Wild Horses formation and lining up as a WR and being able to catch a pass or two, or taking the direct snap in the GL and taking it in for a TD (yay for not getting stuffed 4 times 1 yard away from a td).

Either way, let's just hope for the best and lets get ready for an interesting Training Camp and some QB competition.
Orton better be on his ****ing A game or he won't be around for much longer.

HERE WE GO BRONCOS!
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