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Old 02-27-2010, 01:32 PM   #1
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Default Vegas Betting Questions for March Madness

so.

gonna be in vegas for the first round of the tourney, and I have a plan.


HISTORICALLY, the 5 seed has beaten the 12 seed 66% of the time...my buddy and I are thinking about betting all four 12 seeds, since the odds are in our favor that ONE of the teams will be a winner. We're doing a moneyline bet, so OBVIOUSLY, if the odds of those winners aren't at least somewhere above 5 or 6 to 1, then we won't be betting.

The problem is, I don't know (historically) what the opening money lines on those bets are. For instance, I dunno if one of those games is goin off at 9 to 1 while another might be hitting at 2 to 1. I've been googling my ass off, but can't find previous years opening lines.

Anywho, any thoughts?

And before the soap boxes are brought out....I already realize that the money I've set aside is probably not coming back with me. i'm taking it out there to spend. no, I don't have a gambling problem. Yes, the raiders suck. Cheese is delicious. I like mcdaniels etc etc.

I'm just looking for some feedback, anybody tried this with any kind of success?

and yes, I know it's called GAMBLING for a reason...
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Old 02-27-2010, 01:40 PM   #2
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If you've got nothing to lose, go for it.
That alone should increase your chances of winning.
Betting while you're scared usually realizes your own fears..

College basketball at this juncture is unpredictable. Evey year you can count on some major upset nobody saw coming.
Either way, good luck!
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Old 02-27-2010, 01:42 PM   #3
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thanks mang. Ya, that's the mindset with the money I've set aside. I look at it like its gone already, and I'm just having fun trying to win some more.

The part that excites me the most is the atmosphere. My buddy has been telling me how wild and crazy the sportsbooks are during the tourney. gonna place bets and then get HAMMERED
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Old 02-27-2010, 01:47 PM   #4
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This system hasn't worked for years.

It became widely publicized in the early 2000's and 12 seed ML's (and spreads for that matter) have crept downward every year.

12 seeds used to be double digit dogs with the high ML's that go along with it but not anymore.

In fact, the books have overcompensated so much for this angle that the 5 seeds are now probably an overlay.
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Old 02-27-2010, 01:52 PM   #5
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Damn.

Any idea what the ML's have been recently?
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Old 02-27-2010, 01:56 PM   #6
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my buddy that was talking about the strategy just told me the last time he went to vegas and did it was back in 01 haha.

He hadn't been back since, but your post makes sense now.

Time for a new strategy...ten team parlays here i come!!!! (kidding)
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Old 02-27-2010, 02:14 PM   #7
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Here is a post I made on a handicapping site in 2002.

I first saw the 'angle' in Maxim mag.

The OP got bumped every year around March so there is some good discussion on just how much the ML's dropped....even from 2002 to 2004.

Interesting read looking back.....

http://www.everyedge.com/vb/showthre...light=sheridan
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