The Orange Mane -  a Denver Broncos Fan Community  

Go Back   The Orange Mane - a Denver Broncos Fan Community > Orange Mane Discussion > Orange Mane Central Discussion
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Chat Room Mark Forums Read



View Poll Results: Which is more costly: High 1st round pick bust or big FA signing bust?
High 1st round pick bust 40 81.63%
Big FA signing bust? 9 18.37%
Voters: 49. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-25-2010, 03:16 PM   #1
The MVPlaya
Denver Broncos
 
The MVPlaya's Avatar
 
out with the old, IN WITH THE NEW

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 5,383
Default Which is more costly: High 1st round pick bust or big FA signing bust?

Jacked the ESPN poll.

I thought this was a pretty good question and to my surprised most people believe it's high 1st round pick bust.

I think it's a little vague to be honest - what is a "big" FA signing or what is a "high" 1st round pick.

What do you guys think
The MVPlaya is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Old 02-25-2010, 03:19 PM   #2
Doggcow
Please Help Rebel
 
Doggcow's Avatar
 
http://www.gofundme.com/cvqzik

Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 8,958

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Von Miller
Default

It seems like bad 1st rounders can set organizations back many years. FA's don't really, because you know what you're buying for the most part.
Doggcow is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2010, 03:23 PM   #3
gtown
Perennial Pro-bowler
 
Hoya Saxa!!

Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: DC
Posts: 921

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Juggernaut #46
Default

Definitely the high first round pick bust. First off, you have to pay an unproven player loads of $. Second, if they suck their first year, you keep telling yourself that one day they will put it all together and reach their potential. And third, if they do suck for the entirety of their rookie contract, you have all these people second-guessing the organization. We could of had player X instead of player Y three years ago.

With an FA bust, the team is at least paying someone who was has a track record of good play. If they don't live up to expectations, at least they can bring other intangibles to the team such as leadership and coaching to the younger players. They are probably more costly on a year on year basis, but you may be able to trade them to another team thinking that the player might still have something in the tank.
gtown is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2010, 03:39 PM   #4
chaz
highly touted recruit
 
chaz's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Minnesota
Posts: 2,455

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Mr. Bruton
Default

draft picks are more valuable than the money. Every first round bust is a missed opportunity to grab a star player. Obviously this is inevitably going to happen, but still...

FAs are "frosting"...they put your team over the top but rarely make or break it. And big time FAs rarely bust...typically are proven commodities. At least much more so than a rookie.
chaz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2010, 03:40 PM   #5
BroncosSouth
Just Drafted
 

Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 9

Adopt-a-Bronco:
None
Default

Both suck, but I think blowing a big FA signing is worse than a 1st round bust.

You have multiple chances a year through the draft to pick up an impact player, so if your 1st round turns out to be a bust you still could have picked up 3-4 solid starters through the draft. Whereas FA you may only sign 1-2 big names every other year.

When you are bringing in a big FA you usually are going to overpay since you have to outbid all the other teams so the value may not be as good as you first thought. So if his performance is sub-par you are stuck with the contract and you have a guy who you expected to take your team to the next level.

You may hit a few times in the draft to make up for your 1st round bust, but there is no fall back for a blown "big" FA signing.

Build through the draft supplement in FA.
BroncosSouth is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2010, 04:19 PM   #6
BroncoMan4ever
Ring of Famer
 
BroncoMan4ever's Avatar
 
That's just like your opinion, man

Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Denver
Posts: 13,294

Adopt-a-Bronco:
VIRGIL GREEN!!!
Default

teams with high picks pin the franchise hopes on that guy with the hope that he will become the face of the franchise. it isn't necessarily the money that breaks down a franchise when a high 1st rounder busts, it is usually the hopes and dreams that were pinned on that guy that tend to demoralize a franchise and its fanbase.

with most FA unless you are getting a guy like Favre, someone meant to be the savior of that team, regardless of who you get you really aren't pinning as much on him as you do a 1st round pick.

a draft bust is much more costly than a FA bust.
BroncoMan4ever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2010, 04:50 PM   #7
azbroncfan
Ring of Famer
 
azbroncfan's Avatar
 
Angry guntoting,meateating AMERICAN

Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Scottsdale
Posts: 8,645

Adopt-a-Bronco:
TEBOW
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chaz View Post
draft picks are more valuable than the money. Every first round bust is a missed opportunity to grab a star player. Obviously this is inevitably going to happen, but still...

FAs are "frosting"...they put your team over the top but rarely make or break it. And big time FAs rarely bust...typically are proven commodities. At least much more so than a rookie.
I disagree with quite abit of the above. Rarely do big time FA's even come close to their contracts. Usually they have already started their slide and that is why their past team didn't resign them. I do agree they are the frosting to make a superbowl run. First round draft picks are a chance to grab a star player but they are severely overrated and prove to be bust more often than not. I think their real value is trading them down and acquiring more picks. I'll bet without even looking there are more all pro players that are not 1st round picks than that are.

Unless your talking top 6 picks or so FA's are usually more expensive because of bidding war but a bust up high will really set your franchise back since you sign the player to the top 3 contracts for his position.
azbroncfan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2010, 06:01 PM   #8
Jesterhole
Ring of Famer
 
Jesterhole's Avatar
 
Ridin' the McFailboat...

Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 2,464
Default

Draft misses are far worse, not even close. In FA, you can take as many stabs as you want. You have a very limited set of draft picks, and you need to make them all, especially the top ones, count.
Jesterhole is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2010, 11:26 PM   #9
Kaylore
Shall we begin?
 
Kaylore's Avatar
 
You should have let me sleep!

Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Ceti Alpha V
Posts: 45,965

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Pat Bowlen
Default

Poor drafts reflect worse on an organization than bad free agents. Also people are more forgiving for free agent busts (to a degree) because at least those players have played in the NFL so they are something of a known commodity. Draft picks require more guesswork and therefore make you look really good when you get right and (ironically) much more stupid when you're wrong.
Kaylore is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2010, 11:34 PM   #10
SouthStndJunkie
Ring of Famer
 
SouthStndJunkie's Avatar
 
Shannon Says: Listen to The Junkman

Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 16,180
Default

Bombing on a high first round pick is more costly than bombing on a big free agent.

High first round draft picks are supposed to be the cornerstone of your franchise for a decade.

You can sign numerous free agents in any given year, but high draft picks are limited in number.
SouthStndJunkie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2010, 11:46 PM   #11
chaz
highly touted recruit
 
chaz's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Minnesota
Posts: 2,455

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Mr. Bruton
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by azbroncfan View Post
I disagree with quite abit of the above. Rarely do big time FA's even come close to their contracts. Usually they have already started their slide and that is why their past team didn't resign them. I do agree they are the frosting to make a superbowl run. First round draft picks are a chance to grab a star player but they are severely overrated and prove to be bust more often than not. I think their real value is trading them down and acquiring more picks. I'll bet without even looking there are more all pro players that are not 1st round picks than that are.

Unless your talking top 6 picks or so FA's are usually more expensive because of bidding war but a bust up high will really set your franchise back since you sign the player to the top 3 contracts for his position.
Everything I said was meant to be in comparison between first round picks and free agents. Thus, I'd say more free agents live up to their contracts than first round picks. You seemed to state that you disagreed and then digress from that into actually agreeing with me for different reasons.

No one mentioned trading back. First round pick busting vs. free agent busting.

And more all pros outside of the first round than in it? Really? I bet only about 10-15% of players currently in the league were drafted in the first round...so 50% of all pros is a lot to ask.
chaz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2010, 11:51 PM   #12
NFLBRONCO
Ring of Famer
 
NFLBRONCO's Avatar
 
Go Nuggets Go Lakers

Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Lafayette Colorado
Posts: 8,042
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthStndJunkie View Post
Bombing on a high first round pick is more costly than bombing on a big free agent.

High first round draft picks are supposed to be the cornerstone of your franchise for a decade.

You can sign numerous free agents in any given year, but high draft picks are limited in number.
Yep my thoughts exactly
NFLBRONCO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2010, 12:20 AM   #13
The MVPlaya
Denver Broncos
 
The MVPlaya's Avatar
 
out with the old, IN WITH THE NEW

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 5,383
Default

Just FYI - I think you should also factor in that they are saying "big" FA signing bust not just ANY FA...
The MVPlaya is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2010, 01:17 AM   #14
16slayer24
Solid Starter
 

Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 126
Default

jake plummer stud cutler bust gaffney played well lelie bust
16slayer24 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2010, 01:19 AM   #15
16slayer24
Solid Starter
 

Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 126
Default

and ed macaffery and gary zimmerman and stinky
16slayer24 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2010, 07:50 AM   #16
Kaylore
Shall we begin?
 
Kaylore's Avatar
 
You should have let me sleep!

Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Ceti Alpha V
Posts: 45,965

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Pat Bowlen
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 16slayer24 View Post
and ed macaffery and gary zimmerman and stinky
Niko Koutovides, Ihop, Browncos, Jed Weaver, Travis Henry.
Kaylore is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2010, 08:27 AM   #17
Cool Breeze
Ring of Famer
 
Cool Breeze's Avatar
 
Broncos Rock!

Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: south of town
Posts: 1,223
Default

Dale Carter and that DT who broke his hand at IHOP
Cool Breeze is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2010, 10:32 AM   #18
DawnBTVS
Laugh This Off... Puddin'
 
Rookie Poster

Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Sudbury, MA
Posts: 88

Adopt-a-Bronco:
David Bruton
Default

I'm gonna say a 1st round pick. Generally those 1st rounders are drafted at key need positions (QB especially). You've now wasted millions usually (sometimes a ton guaranteed regardless of their failure/success) and very rarely does the franchise come back from that mistake.

People also seem to forget that if a high 1st round rookie struggles in the first season, teams are very rarely going to waste another 1st or 2nd round pick at the exact same position to fix the issue. At best they'll grab a guy in the 3rd or 4th round, much cheaper with potentially less of a ceiling, and hope he can be groomed. So now as a GM you're wasting money on a potential bust at a position that's still a need (which is why Player A got drafted in the first place) and basically crossing your fingers that if he continues to fail, you can luck out in another drafted player at the same position.

Nevermind the fact that the rookie likely starts due to the contract over a player who may be superior (See Rivers over Brees despite Brees' having 2 very good seasons in San Diego which SD got lucky with). Imagine if Rivers had busted and they let Brees walk. Now their franchise could've been set back for 2-3 more seasons while they decide, "Do we stick with Rivers despite struggling or draft a QB/sign a FA?" If they drafted another QB, now they're paying Player C a high contract with hopes that he doesn't bust.

The Detroit Lions basically went through this. They busted with Charles Rogers in 2003 and wasted another 1st on Roy Williams who was subpar. So they go with Mike Williams in 2005 (to replace the struggling Charles Rogers) and he busts hard as well. Finally they land Calvin Johnson in 2007. So they basically went from 2003-2006 (4 seasons) with 2 high contract busts as a key offensive position and 1 player who looked solid but eventually got sent out of town.

Whereas with a free agent bust, generally they're not paid as highly and as others have pointed out, what you see is what you get from them so you don't have to worry about any mental struggles as it's usually injuries/physical fall off (ala Adalius Thomas with the Patriots recently who's been injured and underperformed) that turn them into "busts".
DawnBTVS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2010, 10:35 AM   #19
BlaK-Argentina
Pampita says...
 
BlaK-Argentina's Avatar
 
... support your team!

Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Villa La Angostura
Posts: 5,104
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaylore View Post
Niko Koutovides, Ihop, Browncos, Jed Weaver, Travis Henry.
I don't think the Browncos were bad. They contributed quite a bit in that 2005 season.

But yeah... the rest are just... wow.
BlaK-Argentina is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes



Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 08:30 AM.


Denver Broncos