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Old 02-05-2010, 11:29 AM   #1
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Default OT Document Friday: US Perceptions on the Cusp of China's First Nuke Test

Document Friday: “Reducing the Psychological Impact of the First Chinese Communist Nuclear Explosion”

Despite denials and tepid gestures towards a UN-brokered nuclear compromise, American officials remain concerned that the Islamic of Republic Iran is on the cusp of creating an atomic weapon. But as this week’s hot doc shows, the United States has been in a similarly precarious situation before. In 1956 –after years of developing nuclear technology under the guise of peaceful research– the People’s Republic of China announced its intention to develop a nuclear weapon. According to this declassified State Department doc, “Anticipatory Action Pending Chinese Communist Demonstration of a Nuclear Capability,” US policy makers anticipated a Chinese nuclear detonation as early as 1961. This explosion, they feared, would “contribute to feeling that communism is the wave of the future and that Communist China is, or soon will become, too powerful to resist.”

Rest (with a big twist) and actual document here:
http://nsarchive.wordpress.com/2010/...r-explosion-2/

Last edited by Natedogg; 02-05-2010 at 11:32 AM..
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Old 02-05-2010, 02:44 PM   #2
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Interesting read.
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Old 02-05-2010, 02:49 PM   #3
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I hate this stuff, it makes me think too much if the end is actually coming soon.
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Old 02-05-2010, 03:54 PM   #4
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Thx Chris.

SuperMan, on the bright side we can be thankful that the risk to humanity was several orders of magnitude greater during the Cold War than it is now.

IMO, the Soviet Union (and Com China) were Krang and Shredder while Al Queda reminds me of Beebop and Rocksteady.

Kids my age tend to forget that.
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Old 02-05-2010, 04:22 PM   #5
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Scary times indeed. Think of a car-bomb x a million. Then recall 9/11. It can happen.

There are those out there that would like to see all of us dead. Don't forget that when people choose to b**** about our ability to difuse radical factions unless you are willing to pick up a gun and defend our freedom when the time calls for it.
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Old 02-05-2010, 04:30 PM   #6
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Scary times indeed. Think of a car-bomb x a million. Then recall 9/11. It can happen.

There are those out there that would like to see all of us dead. Don't forget that when people choose to b**** about our ability to difuse radical factions unless you are willing to pick up a gun and defend our freedom when the time calls for it.
Not to be crass, but I've heard an international security expert say that a nuclear attack "would make 9-11 look like a walk in the park." And then imagine that upon to hundreds of US cities hit simultaneously (as the Soviet's SIOP called for).

Check this out for examples of the power of nukes.

http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nuke...&contentId=367
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Old 02-05-2010, 04:40 PM   #7
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I don't think the United States is a big target as people think. Israel will probably get hit with a nuke before we ever do.
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Old 02-05-2010, 04:50 PM   #8
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If Iran nukes Israel, they won't be around long enough to 'pop' open the champagne.

MAD is still the rule when a nuclear power attacks another nuclear power.



MAD=Mutually Assured Destruction...... not the magazine.

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Old 02-05-2010, 04:51 PM   #9
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I don't think the United States is a big target as people think. Israel will probably get hit with a nuke before we ever do.
I agree. But that wasn't the case during the Cold War.

And one nuke (detonated by a terrorist group, say) is terrible, but the complete Soviet (or US) arsenal would destroy the world.
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Old 02-05-2010, 04:52 PM   #10
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If Iran nukes Israel, they won't be around long enough to 'pop' open the champagne.

MAD is still the rule when a nuclear power attacks another nuclear power.
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Old 02-05-2010, 04:54 PM   #11
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I agree. But that wasn't the case during the Cold War.

And one nuke (detonated by a terrorist group, say) is terrible, but the complete Soviet (or US) arsenal would destroy the world.
Interesting stuff to say the least. I am a History buff, so that was a great read.

Is that your blog by the way?
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Old 02-05-2010, 04:55 PM   #12
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I don't think the United States is a big target as people think. Israel will probably get hit with a nuke before we ever do.
Yep. Make no mistake though, there are enemies at our doors. I think there are several behind the scene parties that are in cahoots together. I don't trust Cuba and Venezuela. China and Russia's MO is veiled behind their walls and are very suspicious to me. North Korea and Iran are led by radical extremist with itchy trigger fingers and a "cause" to lead the world into WW3.

Tread carefully.
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Old 02-05-2010, 04:55 PM   #13
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Interesting stuff to say the least. I am a History buff, so that was a great read.

Is that your blog by the way?
I missed the connection. Kudos!
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Old 02-05-2010, 04:57 PM   #14
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Interesting stuff to say the least. I am a History buff, so that was a great read.

Is that your blog by the way?
Yeah... Well, its the National Security Archive's blog. And that's who I wrote it for.

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Old 02-05-2010, 04:58 PM   #15
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Yep. Make no mistake though, there are enemies at our doors. I think there are several behind the scene parties that are in cahoots together. I don't trust Cuba and Venezuela. China and Russia's MO is veiled behind their walls and are very suspicious to me. North Korea and Iran are led by radical extremist with itchy trigger fingers and a "cause" to lead the world into WW3.

Tread carefully.
I don't think the situation is quite as dire as you present it. But hey, vigilance never hurt.... as long as it doesn't turn into xenophobia.
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Old 02-05-2010, 05:00 PM   #16
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I wouldn't say dire is the right word. Suspicious is more like it. There are many situations that have raised flags in my mind. China and Russia's view and support of Iran and North Korea being at the fore-front there.
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Old 02-05-2010, 05:09 PM   #17
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all this bull**** with all these countries developing nukes is annoying. makes me wonder why immediately after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, why America didn't just go about conquering the rest of the world. plain and simple get in line or get blown right off the face of the earth.

it has been that way all through history. the army or country with the bigger better weapons always took over as much of the world as possible. America is the only empire to never do that, when they were the only nes with the worlds most dangerous weapon

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Old 02-05-2010, 07:23 PM   #18
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all this bull**** with all these countries developing nukes is annoying. makes me wonder why immediately after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, why America didn't just go about conquering the rest of the world. plain and simple get in line or get blown right off the face of the earth.

it has been that way all through history. the army or country with the bigger better weapons always took over as much of the world as possible. America is the only empire to never do that, when they were the only nes with the worlds most dangerous weapon

I am still trying to figure out how a country with tapped massive oil reserves needs nuclear energy. What are the odds the Israelis and Iranians not engage in some exchange?

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Old 02-05-2010, 07:24 PM   #19
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I wouldn't say dire is the right word. Suspicious is more like it. There are many situations that have raised flags in my mind. China and Russia's view and support of Iran and North Korea being at the fore-front there.

Dont forget Venezuela.


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Old 02-05-2010, 07:26 PM   #20
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I am still trying to figure out how a country with tapped massive oil reserves needs nuclear energy. What are the odds the Israelis and Iranians not engage in some exchange?

The Arab nations would love to see that happen. Two birds with one stone.
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Old 02-05-2010, 07:28 PM   #21
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The Arab nations would love to see that happen. Two birds with one stone.

Exactly.


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Old 02-05-2010, 09:00 PM   #22
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I am still trying to figure out how a country with tapped massive oil reserves needs nuclear energy. What are the odds the Israelis and Iranians not engage in some exchange?

I think Israeli takes out Iran before they have a chance to be taken out first.

Many Iranians understand this to be true as well, which is why the administration furthering the nuclear program is facing so much unrest from the rest of their society among many other issues.

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Old 02-05-2010, 09:15 PM   #23
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all this bull**** with all these countries developing nukes is annoying. makes me wonder why immediately after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, why America didn't just go about conquering the rest of the world.
They should've AT LEAST forced the Soviets back to their territory at the end of WWII.
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Old 02-06-2010, 12:13 AM   #24
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I think Israeli takes out Iran before they have a chance to be taken out first.

Many Iranians understand this to be true as well, which is why the administration furthering the nuclear program is facing so much unrest from the rest of their society among many other issues.

Israel can take out Iran, but how many first strikes can Israel take? Its a country the size of Delaware.


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Old 02-06-2010, 12:15 AM   #25
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They should've AT LEAST forced the Soviets back to their territory at the end of WWII.

Yalta was a horrible agreement. The US-UK-Canadian forces could have met the Soviets in Poland. Iron curtain would have gone through Warsaw instead of Berlin, and maybe the Soviets collapse before 1991.


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