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Old 01-13-2010, 10:16 AM   #1
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Default Analysis: Marshall's value to other NFL teams not clear

http://www.denverpost.com/premium/broncos/ci_14176465

Many who have corresponded over the past week or so have taken great exception to the premise that not every football guy in the NFL is poised to surrender a bounty of draft picks in a trade to the Broncos for Pro Bowl wide receiver Brandon Marshall.

It seems some people are troubled by the idea that any number of general managers and pro personnel executives believe Marshall has plenty going for him but still aren't sure if he can rise above what they characterize as "very good" status.

Many folks in Broncos Nation blame quarterback Kyle Orton for the fact that 64.4 percent of Marshall's receiving plays went for 10 yards or fewer as he finished with an average of 11.1 yards per catch.

But in the 2008 season, the Broncos passed for 4,471 yards — a record for the franchise — with Jay Cutler at quarterback. Marshall averaged 12.2 yards per catch that season and did not have a reception longer than 47 yards; he had three in 2009.

In an offense that passed the ball 620 times — 61.6 percent of the time, and 62 times more than this past season — Marshall still had just over half of his receiving plays (51 percent) go for 10 yards or fewer.

Marshall had 13 receiving plays of more than 21 yards in 2008 and 10 in 2009. He had six touchdown catches in 2008 and 10 in 2009.

Even in the "wide open" Denver offense of 2008, as some have called it, and with Cutler in the shotgun most of the time, the only area of the field where Marshall had significantly more production than the 2009 season was between 11 and 20 yards, not down the field.

Some of that is because the Broncos wanted the ball out quickly — Cutler was sacked just 11 times, even with his 616 attempts in 2008 — but also because of Marshall's comfort level catching the ball on routes that call for him to face the quarterback. Those are short to intermediate routes in the middle of the field for the most part, more horizontal than vertical.

There's no question Marshall has the size and strength to dominate smaller cornerbacks. But it's still a question mark exactly how many of the NFL's toughest critics — the personnel executives the Broncos are going to ask to trade for him — believe Marshall is an elite player at his position.

The Broncos will get the answer to that in the coming weeks, and they need it to be at least one.
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Old 01-13-2010, 10:19 AM   #2
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Let me ask the Brandon Marshall apologists this question: Would you trade a 1st and a 3rd plus a $55M contract to have Wes Welker on your team?

That's basically what you'd be getting. At least Welker can return punts and is a "high character" guy.
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Old 01-13-2010, 10:48 AM   #3
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Good Question. Who wants to take it?
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Old 01-13-2010, 10:51 AM   #4
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After watching the Jets blitz the middle of the field all day against them (leaving it wide open), I think Cincy could use a guy like Brandon to compliment Ochocinco. Just not sure the price is worth it.
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Old 01-13-2010, 11:35 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by bloodsunday View Post
Let me ask the Brandon Marshall apologists this question: Would you trade a 1st and a 3rd plus a $55M contract to have Wes Welker on your team?

That's basically what you'd be getting. At least Welker can return punts and is a "high character" guy.
No.

Welker is very good, but he is not a game changer and his value as a returner is limited at best. Welker gets many of receptions as a result of Moss's double teaming, he is not a guy who can be a number 1 and with his limited size he will never be a red zone target.

There is little in Welker we don't already have in other players.
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Old 01-13-2010, 12:16 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by bloodsunday View Post
Let me ask the Brandon Marshall apologists this question: Would you trade a 1st and a 3rd plus a $55M contract to have Wes Welker on your team?

That's basically what you'd be getting. At least Welker can return punts and is a "high character" guy.
eddie royal is that guy.....I'm not sure why McDumbass didn't put him in the slot this year.
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Old 01-13-2010, 12:17 PM   #7
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Oh yes BM is worth a 1st and 3rd
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Old 01-13-2010, 01:34 PM   #8
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This article is just stringing information together only to validate his claim. The author wouldn't want you to know that both Fitzgerald and Boldin were right @ 11 ypc or that Majority of the WR's are within those same exact numbers

What WR don't you know that's comfortable facing the ball? How does he know that Marshall doesn't like catching the ball while running. I've seen so many routes this year where Marshall beat the jam and was streaking on a seam and he either was overrthrown or underthrown.

The QB has a lot to do with YPC as well as playcalling. If this author couldn't see that we we're basically throwing to make for our inept rubbing game he's an idiot. Hence the short passes and clearly not enough deep balls
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Old 01-13-2010, 01:35 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by bloodsunday View Post
Let me ask the Brandon Marshall apologists this question: Would you trade a 1st and a 3rd plus a $55M contract to have Wes Welker on your team?

That's basically what you'd be getting. At least Welker can return punts and is a "high character" guy.
No.
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Old 01-13-2010, 02:21 PM   #10
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I think BM will be Bronco next year!
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Old 01-13-2010, 02:57 PM   #11
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This article is just stringing information together only to validate his claim.
Actually Legwold is a football junkie known for draft and player analysis. This is not his claim. He gathered much of this information from talking to other GMs and personnel people (scouts) around the league. This is the perception of Marshall. And the stats back it up. The perception (fair or unfair) is very important because it will dictate how much leverage Marshall has and how much Denver could get in return for a trade.

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The author wouldn't want you to know that both Fitzgerald and Boldin were right @ 11 ypc or that Majority of the WR's are within those same exact numbers
Umm ACTUALLY, B-Marsh finished 82nd in the league in YPC. Even if you take his number from last year (12.2), that would be good for 64th in the league this year. Of the top 30 players in total receptions, only 5 of them finished lower than B-Marsh, and 4 of them are TE. One is a running back (Ray Rice).

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What WR don't you know that's comfortable facing the ball? How does he know that Marshall doesn't like catching the ball while running. I've seen so many routes this year where Marshall beat the jam and was streaking on a seam and he either was overrthrown or underthrown.
This is a scout's take on what Marshall does best.

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The QB has a lot to do with YPC as well as playcalling. If this author couldn't see that we we're basically throwing to make for our inept rubbing game he's an idiot. Hence the short passes and clearly not enough deep balls
He addressed this point by comparing the "wide open" offense of 2008 and this year's offense. The numbers tell more or less the same story.

The overriding point is that we can replace B-Marsh's production. He's not worth the hassle. And, we should be careful if we think other teams are going to line up for a chance to offers us 2 draft picks for him.

Last edited by bloodsunday; 01-13-2010 at 03:01 PM..
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Old 01-13-2010, 03:00 PM   #12
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eddie royal is that guy.....I'm not sure why McDumbass didn't put him in the slot this year.
I don't think it's that simple. That's part of the equation here. Everyone assumed that when he took over and installed the "NE offense" that Marshall would be Randy Moss and Royal would be Welker. Turns out Marshall is closer to Welker. We don't have a Moss - stretch the defense - kind of WR right now. That's why I think we audios B-Marsh and try to find us one of them. Gaffney and Royal can replace B-Marsh's production as the slot/possession WR.

I'm sure McDaniels would like to use more his talent, but when your 3 best WR play essentially the same position, you have a problem.

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Old 01-13-2010, 05:16 PM   #13
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No.

Welker is very good, but he is not a game changer and his value as a returner is limited at best. Welker gets many of receptions as a result of Moss's double teaming, he is not a guy who can be a number 1 and with his limited size he will never be a red zone target.

There is little in Welker we don't already have in other players.
There isn't a wide receiver in the league that will get you to a SB. They may win a game here or there on an amazing catch but receivers need a very good QB to even be that amazing WR. NE won a SB without game changing WR's and now that they have a "star receiver" they can't win one. I really like Welker but no, I wouldn't expend that amount for ANY receiver. I'm just hoping there is a team out there dumb enough to do it.
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Old 01-13-2010, 05:49 PM   #14
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deep balls do help the rubbing game quite a bit.
That is so gay!!!!!!!!!
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Old 01-13-2010, 06:07 PM   #15
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Actually Legwold is a football junkie known for draft and player analysis. This is not his claim. He gathered much of this information from talking to other GMs and personnel people (scouts) around the league.
He's better then Roy Williams I think we both can agree and If the Cowboys gave up that for him. Then I think we can expect Marshall to garner the same if not more.

Quote:
This is the perception of Marshall. And the stats back it up. The perception (fair or unfair) is very important because it will dictate how much leverage Marshall has and how much Denver could get in return for a trade.
You have to look at the numbers of catches a guy with 10 catches with 3 going deep is going to look good. His data is skewed reason being if you look @ WR's with 70+ Receptions Which equates to 30 players (We can assume these are number 1 WR's/TE Because they were targeted a lot) Only 12 of them have Over 13+ YPC Of those 12 ALL of them have a better QB throwing them the ball.

Like I pointed out before unless these same executives believe based purely on YPC that Larry Fitzgerald isnt a top 5 WR based on identical numbers this year then his whole point it wrong from the very beginning.
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Old 01-13-2010, 06:35 PM   #16
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"But in the 2008 season, the Broncos passed for 4,471 yards — a record for the franchise — with Jay Cutler at quarterback. Marshall averaged 12.2 yards per catch that season and did not have a reception longer than 47 yards; he had three in 2009."

Marshall had a hip that required surgery and yet still produced 12 yard a catch and people are saying he average

Marshall is a guy that DC around the NFL have to account for when they play the Broncos by rolling coverage his way and having safety help over the top. He has enormous value to any team he plays for.

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Old 01-13-2010, 06:54 PM   #17
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"But in the 2008 season, the Broncos passed for 4,471 yards — a record for the franchise — with Jay Cutler at quarterback. Marshall averaged 12.2 yards per catch that season and did not have a reception longer than 47 yards; he had three in 2009."

Marshall had a hip that required surgery and yet still produced 12 yard a catch and people are saying he average

Marshall is a guy that DC around have to account when they play the Broncos by rolling coverage his way and having safety help over the top. He has enormous value to any team he plays for.
More importantly... he is the ONLY guy on our offense that tuly worries a defensive coordinator.
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Old 01-13-2010, 07:35 PM   #18
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It's a fair write-up. Marshall isn't a top 5 WR, in my opinion... but I sure wish he could stick around and contribute.

But, I just don't trust that this guy is ever going to have his head on straight. He held it together for 10 games or so, but must have been way out of line to garner the kind of opinion among his teammates that he did.

At a certain point, you have to go find a different play-maker if this guy can't get his **** together.

I have no idea what his value will be. I thought Chicago overpaid for Cutler, so maybe someone will overpay for Marshall. Somehow, I doubt we'll be as happy as we were with the Cutler bounty.
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Old 01-13-2010, 07:41 PM   #19
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No.

Welker is very good, but he is not a game changer and his value as a returner is limited at best. Welker gets many of receptions as a result of Moss's double teaming, he is not a guy who can be a number 1 and with his limited size he will never be a red zone target.

There is little in Welker we don't already have in other players.
I use to believe this, but I don't think very many teams are double teaming moss anymore. frankly moss looks pathetic right now, maybe he has some hiddein belicheat injury. as long as teams don't put two real coverage ppl on welker then I think he will always produce, he's that good.
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Old 01-13-2010, 08:18 PM   #20
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I use to believe this, but I don't think very many teams are double teaming moss anymore. frankly moss looks pathetic right now, maybe he has some hiddein belicheat injury. as long as teams don't put two real coverage ppl on welker then I think he will always produce, he's that good.
I didn't see too many Patriots games this year, but Moss was definitely double covered consistently against the Jets in game 1, against New Orleans, Carolina and 2nd Buffalo game.

Welker never sees double coverage.
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Old 01-13-2010, 08:21 PM   #21
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I didn't see too many Patriots games this year, but Moss was definitely double covered consistently against the Jets in game 1, against New Orleans, Carolina and 2nd Buffalo game.

Welker never sees double coverage.
I have a lot of trouble believing that the Jets doubled him with Revis in their secondary.
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Old 01-13-2010, 08:23 PM   #22
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More importantly... he is the ONLY guy on our offense that tuly worries a defensive coordinator.
good idea to bench him then in the season finale
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Old 01-13-2010, 08:25 PM   #23
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good idea to bench him then in the season finale
IMO the worst thing about that was telegraphing it by deactivating during the week... At least make KC game plan for him.

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Old 01-13-2010, 09:17 PM   #24
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It's a fair write-up. Marshall isn't a top 5 WR, in my opinion... but I sure wish he could stick around and contribute.

But, I just don't trust that this guy is ever going to have his head on straight. He held it together for 10 games or so, but must have been way out of line to garner the kind of opinion among his teammates that he did.

At a certain point, you have to go find a different play-maker if this guy can't get his **** together.

I have no idea what his value will be. I thought Chicago overpaid for Cutler, so maybe someone will overpay for Marshall. Somehow, I doubt we'll be as happy as we were with the Cutler bounty.
Nobody is saying he is a top 5 WR at the moment Top 10 is a good place for him
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Old 01-13-2010, 09:19 PM   #25
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Let me ask the Brandon Marshall apologists this question: Would you trade a 1st and a 3rd plus a $55M contract to have Wes Welker on your team?

That's basically what you'd be getting. At least Welker can return punts and is a "high character" guy.
He can kick fieldgoals too, he did that in Miami in 06' when Mare went down.

Of course Marshall seems to have some punting skills so maybe that is irrelavent.
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