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Old 12-30-2009, 05:11 PM   #1
gyldenlove
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Default Are the odds better than Akers misses a 30 yard FG or us scoring a TD?

At the end of the Eagles game last Sunday I had this weird feeling.

When the review came back and they called the catch on the sideline to put the Eagles in our red zone, I thought, just have the defense stand aside and let the Eagles score on the first play.

Here is my thinking:

There was less than 2 minutes left and we had 2 timeouts left. The Eagles could run the ball 3 times, let the clock run down to 1, take a timeout and kick a 30 yard FG with a few seconds left to play. The odds that Akers misses a 30 yarder are not good, he is hitting a click over 96% on kicks of 29 yards or shorter including extra points this year and has not missed a FG of 29 or shorter. So that puts our expected probability of not losing at about 4%, not counting the minute probability of forcing a fumble AND recovering it.

If we had let the Eagles walk into the end zone on the first play from scrimmage we would have had to score a TD to tie, however we would have had about 1 minute and 2 timeouts to do so. What is the probability that we can get a TD in a minute with 2 timeouts when we are in 4 down territory all the way? I think it is more than 4%.

I know it is some crazy thinking, but I really think that in some situations you are better off letting the other team score, especially as I think in the situation when they were running if we had pretended to play defense the RB would have punched it in on 1st down and not stopped on the 1 yard line (and if that happens just carry him in).
As a side note I was confused by Phillys decision to run the ball, Akers didn't need the few extra yards to make the kick and they risked a bad exchange or snap, to me the clever thing would have been to go to victory formation, take a knee, move the ball to the middle of the field and kick the FG.
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Old 12-30-2009, 05:25 PM   #2
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I had thought that too, but then I remembered last year a team tried to do that and Westbrook ran it and suddenly stopped and took a knee at the 1. The chances of hitting a field goal at the 1 are way higher than at 30+.
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Old 12-30-2009, 05:30 PM   #3
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Knowing all of this, How about instead of us punting the ball on 4th and 2 we go for it knowing they would score since they would be getting the ball on our side of the 50 with the way hamberger had been punting?
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Old 12-30-2009, 05:33 PM   #4
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Funny thing was that I was thinking the exact same thing when they got into field goal range. It made sense to me. I just felt McD would not have the balls or the savy to try it. Thats when I think we miss having a Vet coach like Shanny, who would have gambled... just my opinion.

Last edited by bap454; 12-30-2009 at 05:36 PM..
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Old 12-30-2009, 05:36 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Meanie View Post
I had thought that too, but then I remembered last year a team tried to do that and Westbrook ran it and suddenly stopped and took a knee at the 1. The chances of hitting a field goal at the 1 are way higher than at 30+.
That is why you need someone to shadow him and make sure he "falls" into the end zone.
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Old 12-30-2009, 05:54 PM   #6
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Reason why i didnt think that was a chance of a penalty that back it up 10 yards. I believe they played to set up the field goal anyways. Letting them score? It wouldnt have bothered me if they went 98 Packers but Denver did it the correct way.
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