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Old 12-29-2009, 07:15 PM   #1
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Default Massive Offensive Decline

After hearing about our travesty of an offense repeatedly, I finally decided to just look into it a bit. It's been spoken about with such certainty around here, it seemed worth a look.

In 2008 the Broncos averaged 23.1 points per game.

In 2009 the Broncos have averaged 20.1 points per game.

Difference? One field goal per game.

One FG per game hardly indicates the massive decline some have spoken of.

What about turnovers? Maybe that's part of the massive decline?

2008 Broncos - 30 turnovers (18 INTs)

2009 Broncos - 20 turnoveres (10 INTs)


Nope. That's not it. The 2009 Broncos turned the ball over 10 less times than the 2008 Broncos. (Still one game to play, of course.)

Hmm.... 3 points per game, but considerably fewer turnovers. Where's the massive decline?

I know, it must have been the strong finish in 08? That 08 offense must have finished stronger than this year's, considering the massive decline this year, right?

Last 7 games of 08 - Broncos scored 146 points

Last 7 games of 09 - Broncos scored 152 points


So, a difference of one FG per game... yet, a stronger 2nd half of the season and considerably fewer turnovers. (And I haven't even gotten into red-zone turnovers.)

Wow, I guess that's why when people make claims that sound outrageous, you probably ought to look into them. Or, perhaps they should have looked into them before making the claim?

Either way, it's nice to know the truth.

Last edited by Popps; 12-29-2009 at 07:18 PM..
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Old 12-29-2009, 07:19 PM   #2
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Homer! Mcgenius is a fraud, and i know the players dont trust him!

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Old 12-29-2009, 07:21 PM   #3
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How much is McD paying you for this propaganda Popps?
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Old 12-29-2009, 07:22 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Popps View Post
After hearing about our travesty of an offense repeatedly, I finally decided to just look into it a bit. It's been spoken about with such certainty around here, it seemed worth a look.

In 2008 the Broncos averaged 23.1 points per game.

In 2009 the Broncos have averaged 20.1 points per game.

Difference? One field goal per game.

One FG per game hardly indicates the massive decline some have spoken of.

What about turnovers? Maybe that's part of the massive decline?

2008 Broncos - 30 turnovers (18 INTs)

2009 Broncos - 20 turnoveres (10 INTs)


Nope. That's not it. The 2009 Broncos turned the ball over 10 less times than the 2008 Broncos. (Still one game to play, of course.)

Hmm.... 3 points per game, but considerably fewer turnovers. Where's the massive decline?

I know, it must have been the strong finish in 08? That 08 offense must have finished stronger than this year's, considering the massive decline this year, right?

Last 7 games of 08 - Broncos scored 146 points

Last 7 games of 09 - Broncos scored 152 points


So, a difference of one FG per game... yet, a stronger 2nd half of the season and considerably fewer turnovers. (And I haven't even gotten into red-zone turnovers.)

Wow, I guess that's why when people make claims that sound outrageous, you probably ought to look into them. Or, perhaps they should have looked into them before making the claim?

Either way, it's nice to know the truth.
If you have time, it would also be nice to see what kind of scoring defenses we faced this year vs. last year. I'm willing to bet that has as big an impact on our offensive "struggles" as anything.

Last edited by misturanderson; 12-29-2009 at 08:12 PM..
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Old 12-29-2009, 07:28 PM   #5
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If you have time, it would also be nice to see what kind of scoring defenses we faced this year vs. last year. I'm willing to bet that has as big an impact on our offensive "struggles" as anything.
How DARE you suggest logical things like strength of opponent? How dare you even mention we played one of the hardest schedules in the NFL this year. You sir, are an apologist! Fire McDaniels! Cutler would have taken us to the Super Bowl!!!!!! ROAWOWRWWWOOWOW!!!!!
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Old 12-29-2009, 07:35 PM   #6
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Yea, I mean... it's been an "epic collapse."

(Trying to remember some of the other phrases I've heard over the past few days.)


I'm just looking for any sort of proof. I'm sure it's true. After all, people have repeated it enough. It must be.
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Old 12-29-2009, 07:41 PM   #7
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Popps you didn't mention about how many points the Bronco's scored in first three games to make the scoring average look much better than it was.
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Old 12-29-2009, 07:42 PM   #8
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I think the perception is a result of the QB. For all his flaws, Cutler was flashy as hell and made some great plays. So it at least felt like we could score at any time, even though we were terribly inconsistent.
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Old 12-29-2009, 07:49 PM   #9
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Yea, I mean... it's been an "epic collapse."

(Trying to remember some of the other phrases I've heard over the past few days.)


I'm just looking for any sort of proof. I'm sure it's true. After all, people have repeated it enough. It must be.
3 game division lead blown - 2008

3.5 game division lead blown - 2009

I would say that's a bigger overall collapse than last year. Offensively? Who knows? Your stats you picked don't support an "epic" collapse, you're right. I am curious to see how many 3-and-outs we had in 2009 vs 2008 though. Just not curious enough to dig them up
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Old 12-29-2009, 07:56 PM   #10
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Those are team stats, not offensive stats. We would also be 12th compared to 19th if we had those stats this year. That is with a lot less help from the defense and special teams on the score board and a lot less help from them in field position. Oh yeah, that team was also younger.
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:00 PM   #11
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Those are team stats, not offensive stats. We would also be 12th compared to 19th if we had those stats this year. That is with a lot less help from the defense and special teams on the score board and a lot less help from them in field position. Oh yeah, that team was also younger.
But, wouldn't less help from the defense naturally lead to more offensive yards, and probably even more scoring, since you'd be playing from behind... and against teams that might be letting up on you with a lead?

Either way, that's just speculation.

The facts are what they are.

None of them support a "massive decline" on offense from last year to this year.
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:01 PM   #12
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Those are team stats
Although, if you're suggesting that we might have put together a more balanced team, I suppose you could be onto something...
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:02 PM   #13
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Yea, I mean... it's been an "epic collapse."

(Trying to remember some of the other phrases I've heard over the past few days.)


I'm just looking for any sort of proof. I'm sure it's true. After all, people have repeated it enough. It must be.

The whiners don't know what they are looking at on the field they only attach their feelings to the score board, win feel good - lose feel bad, that's their game.

They don't even notice the cutler team quit last year and they fail to see this team was in every game and played every play. They will get better.

I give McD a C+ for his rookie year, same for Moreno. They both will get better, a lot better.
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:02 PM   #14
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Although, if you're suggesting that we might have put together a more balanced team, I suppose you could be onto something...
I can agree with that.
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:03 PM   #15
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Once again Popps you just put words into people's mouths to suit your arguments. We all agree, the scoring is about the same (though we were better last year) and I'm pretty sure we all agreed at the end of last season that scoring was an issue to be corrected.

We had one of the highest offenses in the league otherwise in terms of production outside of scoring. Really we had two issues to work on on offense, that was limiting turnovers and scoring in the redzone. We had one of the best rushing attacks in the league despite starting 7 running backs, the passing game was on fire, and the offensive line blocking was amazing.

So instead of turnovers and scoring the redzone, we now have issues with the o-line, with passing, and with rushing.

The decline is there. Do you see it now? Pull up your stats on that and then discuss it.
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:03 PM   #16
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How DARE you suggest logical things like strength of opponent? How dare you even mention we played one of the hardest schedules in the NFL this year.
As I've been posting elsewhere, per Sagarin we played the 3rd easiest schedule last year compared to the 7th most difficult so far this year.
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:05 PM   #17
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How DARE you suggest logical things like strength of opponent? How dare you even mention we played one of the hardest schedules in the NFL this year. You sir, are an apologist! Fire McDaniels! Cutler would have taken us to the Super Bowl!!!!!! ROAWOWRWWWOOWOW!!!!!
You rise to the occasion or you don't Spock.
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:06 PM   #18
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The decline is there.
I agree there has been a decline, it's just not nearly as pronounced as some of the drama queens/widows/haters say. Our defense has improved considerably more than our offense has declined.
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:09 PM   #19
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I agree there has been a decline, it's just not nearly as pronounced as some of the drama queens/widows/haters say. Our defense has improved considerably more than our offense has declined.
I guess I haven't seen the term "massive decline" or "epic decline". Hell, I guess I could have even used it as I am prone to hyperbole in my arguments. But I think that both sides of this argument are ignoring vital bits of information from the oppositions viewpoint thus resulting in the same arguments being rehashed over and over. I guess it's fun because we get pages of discussion out of it.
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:09 PM   #20
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Once again Popps you just put words into people's mouths to suit your arguments. We all agree, the scoring is about the same (though we were better last year) and I'm pretty sure we all agreed at the end of last season that scoring was an issue to be corrected.

We had one of the highest offenses in the league otherwise in terms of production outside of scoring. Really we had two issues to work on on offense, that was limiting turnovers and scoring in the redzone. We had one of the best rushing attacks in the league despite starting 7 running backs, the passing game was on fire, and the offensive line blocking was amazing.

So instead of turnovers and scoring the redzone, we now have issues with the o-line, with passing, and with rushing.

The decline is there. Do you see it now? Pull up your stats on that and then discuss it.
of course there was a decline we are in the first year of a complete rebuild what did you expect?

How many games did you say we'd win at the beginning of the season?

I said 10 looks like 9 I'm OK with this season but McD better show much improvement next season. I give him a C+ this year
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:10 PM   #21
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of course there was a decline we are in the first year of a complete rebuild what did you expect?

How many games did you say we'd win at the beginning of the season?

I said 10 looks like 9 I'm OK with this season but McD better show much improvement next season. I give him a C+ this year
I predicted 4 or 5 wins. I guess my argument is that we'd be better off with Cutler, despite his epic collapse in Chicago.
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:11 PM   #22
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I agree there has been a decline, it's just not nearly as pronounced as some of the drama queens/widows/haters say. Our defense has improved considerably more than our offense has declined.
That's right.

There has been a very minor decline in scoring output, offset by considerably less turnovers.

I think it's one thing to say that our offense needs to get better. We all can agree, there.

It's another all together to imply a "massive decline."

That's a plain old myth.
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:12 PM   #23
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If you have time, it would also be nice to see what kind of scoring defenses we faced this year vs. last year. I'm willing to bet that has as big an impact on our offensive "struggles" as anything.
I decided to look it up. Last year we faced the 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15x2, 16, 18, 21, 24x2, 26, 29x2 ranked scoring defenses that gave up an average of 22.5 points per game. This year we faced the 2, 3x2, 4, 5, 7, 12x3, 16x2, 23x3, 28, 30x2 ranked scoring defenses that allowed an average of 19.6 points per game. We also tended to play the top teams when they were at as close to full strength as they were all year, specifically PIT and BAL.

Last year we played 2 defenses that allowed 20 or fewer points per game (19.3 and 19.8 ppg) this year we've played 8 games against teams that allowed 20 or fewer (16.5, 16.7x2, 16.9, 18.5, 20x3 ppg).

Last year our offense bested our opponent's average points per game given up 7 times, we have matched that so far this year.

Take that as you want, but we faced a much harder defensive schedule this year. In fact, it can be pretty much directly attributed to 2 of the 3 lost points in per game average.
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:32 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Popps View Post
After hearing about our travesty of an offense repeatedly, I finally decided to just look into it a bit. It's been spoken about with such certainty around here, it seemed worth a look.

In 2008 the Broncos averaged 23.1 points per game.

In 2009 the Broncos have averaged 20.1 points per game.

Difference? One field goal per game.

One FG per game hardly indicates the massive decline some have spoken of.

What about turnovers? Maybe that's part of the massive decline?

2008 Broncos - 30 turnovers (18 INTs)

2009 Broncos - 20 turnoveres (10 INTs)


Nope. That's not it. The 2009 Broncos turned the ball over 10 less times than the 2008 Broncos. (Still one game to play, of course.)

Hmm.... 3 points per game, but considerably fewer turnovers. Where's the massive decline?

I know, it must have been the strong finish in 08? That 08 offense must have finished stronger than this year's, considering the massive decline this year, right?

Last 7 games of 08 - Broncos scored 146 points

Last 7 games of 09 - Broncos scored 152 points


So, a difference of one FG per game... yet, a stronger 2nd half of the season and considerably fewer turnovers. (And I haven't even gotten into red-zone turnovers.)

Wow, I guess that's why when people make claims that sound outrageous, you probably ought to look into them. Or, perhaps they should have looked into them before making the claim?

Either way, it's nice to know the truth.
Shhhhhhhhhhhh............Popps, facts aren't allowed here. Your post might make broncofraud7's head explode.
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:45 PM   #25
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I think the perception is a result of the QB. For all his flaws, Cutler was flashy as hell and made some great plays. So it at least felt like we could score at any time, even though we were terribly inconsistent.
I agree there is terrible selection bias in denver towards any qb who can run and any qb w/ a strong arm.
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