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Old 12-16-2009, 03:27 AM   #1
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Default Re-projecting the 2009 first round based on season-to-date performances

Draft redux

Re-projecting the 2009 first round based on season-to-date performances



It's 20-20 hindsight time, when I get to re-pick the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft with the benefit of 14 weeks of regular season results to guide by. Our sixth annual December NFL re-draft attempts to detail the way things should have unfolded in New York on April 26th, based on how things have gone so far this season. As always, rookie-season production, for the most part, wins out over potential and projection in our re-draft.


1.) Detroit Lions (Original pick: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia)

RE-DO PICK: MICHAEL OHER, OT, OLE MISS

I'm not making the case that Stafford was a mistake, only that playing a franchise quarterback before you have an offensive line to protect him is putting the cart before the horse. Stafford has gotten killed this season (24 sacks in 10 games), and it makes more sense for Detroit to have gone for Oher, the draft's top-performing tackle, to protect someone's, uh, Blind Side. Oher has played well at both right and left tackle for Baltimore this season, and scouts say he'd be a consensus top 5 pick if the draft were re-held today.


2.) St. Louis Rams (Original pick: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor)

RE-DO PICK: MATTHEW STAFFORD, QB, GEORGIA

The Rams have passed on at least four first-round quarterbacks in the past two drafts -- Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco in 2008, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman in 2009 -- and there's no team in more obvious need of a new starting quarterback for 2010. With that in mind, and Smith having underperformed as a rookie, I'd select Stafford here, with the knowledge that St. Louis could have given him a redshirt season of sorts while Marc Bulger and Kyle Boller served out this long and trying season for the Rams.


3.) Kansas City Chefs (Original pick: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU)

RE-DO PICK: PERCY HARVIN, WR-KR, FLORIDA

With six receiving touchdowns, two kick return touchdowns, and 13 plays from scrimmage of at least 20 yards, Harvin has been the league's most electrifying rookie play-maker. The Chiefs could sure have used a jolt of offense from their rookie class. They've scored 16 points or fewer in nine of 13 games this season, and their offense ranks 30th overall in yards (272.4), and 28th in points (15.8).


4.) Seattle Seahawks (Original pick: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest)

RE-DO PICK: BRIAN CUSHING, LB, USC

Curry has been very solid for the Seahawks, but Cushing has been downright spectacular for the Texans and is already one of the league's most effective outside linebackers. He finds the ball consistently, and can rush the passer, play the run, and shows up strong in pass coverage. What else is there? As much as Seattle could have made use of an offensive tackle this year, Cushing has been too good to pass on.


5.) New York Jets (Original pick: Mark DIRTY Sanchez, QB, USC)

RE-DO PICK: SANCHEZ

Sure, it has been a rollercoaster first season for "the Sanchise" in New York, but that's a fairly typical rookie experience for a quarterback, at least before Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco blew the curve for everyone last year. The Jets needed a quarterback, and they took a quarterback. Now it's time to grow with him. Sanchez showed flashes of brilliance early, but his limited collegiate playing experience eventually caught up with him.


6.) Cincinnati Bengals (Original pick: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama)

RE-DO PICK: PHIL LOADHOLT, OT, OKLAHOMA

The juxtaposition must have been a bit obvious Sunday in Minneapolis. The Bengals gave Smith his long-awaited first start at right tackle, and he fared OK against the Vikings defensive line. But Minnesota selected Loadholt toward the end of the second round (54th) and he has excelled at right tackle, starting 12 of 13 games and handling most everything thrown at him.


7.) Chokeland Raiders (Original pick: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland)

RE-DO PICK: MICHAEL CRABTREE, WR, TEXAS TECH

C'mon, we couldn't resist. Crabtree was right. He should have never gotten past the Raiders in April's first round and we're here to right the wrong. Despite the belated start to his rookie season, his half-year of work is pretty impressive. He has 37 catches for 473 yards and a pair of touchdowns in eight games, and if you doubled those numbers, his 16-game production would be the stuff of an Offensive Rookie of the Year winner.


8.) Jacksonville Jaguars (Original pick: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia)

RE-DO PICK: SEBASTIAN VOLLMER, OT, HOUSTON

The Jaguars have started their two rookie offensive tackles, Monroe and second-rounder Eben Britton, for most of the season, and both have had their highs and lows. But Vollmer, the 58th overall pick, has been one of the draft's bigger surprises, starting 11 games and playing well enough at left tackle to probably end Matt Light's tenure in New England in the near future. All you really need to know is that Bill Belichick clearly trusts Vollmer to protect Tom Brady's blind side.


9.) Green Bay Packers (Original pick: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College)

RE-DO PICK: CLAY MATTHEWS JR., LB, USC

The Packers sure could have used a young offensive tackle to help protect Aaron Rodgers earlier this season, but with the three best ones (Oher, Loadholt and Vollmer) already gone, it's logical to bump the play-making Matthews up to this slot. Because there's no way he'll last until Green Bay's No. 26 pick this time around. Matthews' eight sacks rank second among league rookies, and he continues to improve as the season unfolds. 10


10.) San Francisco 49ers (Original pick: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech)

RE-DO PICK: JEREMY MACLIN, WR, MISSOURI

With Crabtree already in Oakland according to our re-draft, the 49ers would be fortunate to find Maclin still available. The Eagles receiver has been among the leading rookie play-makers all season, and before suffering a foot injury Sunday night against the Giants, he had 46 catches for 623 yards and four touchdowns in Philly's explosive offense. 11


11.) Buffalo Bills (Original pick: Aaron Maybin, DE-OLB, Penn State)

RE-DO PICK: BRIAN ORAKPO, LB-DE, TEXAS

Orakpo has a whopping 11 sacks to lead all rookie pass rushers, and that's exactly 11 more than the Bills have gotten from Maybin, one of the first round's biggest disappointments. Orakpo dropped Raiders quarterbacks four times on Sunday in Oakland, vaulting himself into strong contention for Defensive Rookie of the Year.


12.) THE Denver Broncos (Original pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia)

RE-DO PICK: MORENO

With the possible exception of having Moreno hold on to the ball as he crossed the goal line a few weeks back against San Diego, I wouldn't change a thing about his rookie season for the Broncos. He leads all rookie rushers with 837 yards and five touchdowns, and has been the picture of consistency, with seven games of at least 75 yards.


18.) THE Denver Broncos (Original pick: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee)

RE-DO PICK: LOUIS DELMAS, S, WESTERN MICHIGAN

Given the age and wealth of experience the Broncos have in their secondary, a young, play-making presence like Delmas would be a great fit for the future. Delmas has been one of the bright spots in Detroit this season, and the undersized hard hitter is reportedly the first rookie in NFL history to notch a safety, a fumble return for a touchdown and an interception in the same season. Works for me.




http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...aft/index.html
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Old 12-16-2009, 03:38 AM   #2
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* First-round picks who did not make the cut this time: No. 2 Jason Smith, Rams, OT; No. 3 Tyson Jackson, Chiefs, DE; No. 6 Andre Smith, Bengals, OT; No. 7 Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders, WR; No. 8 Eugene Monroe, Jaguars, OT; No. 11 Aaron Maybin, Bills, DE; No. 16 Larry English, Chargers, LB; No. 18 Robert Ayers, Broncos, DE-LB; No. 21 Alex Mack, Browns, C; No. 24 Peria Jerry, Falcons, DT; No. 27 Donald Brown, Colts, RB; No. 28 Eric Wood, Bills, G-C; No. 32 Evander Hood, Steelers, DT.
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Old 12-16-2009, 03:40 AM   #3
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5 of the top 10 picks did not make the re-do. 13 of 32 overall. Shows what a crap shoot the 1st round is. Remember this fans when it comes draft time.
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Old 12-16-2009, 05:25 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBF1 View Post
5 of the top 10 picks did not make the re-do. 13 of 32 overall. Shows what a crap shoot the 1st round is. Remember this fans when it comes draft time.
Many won't. The Cutler fans will demand a QB no matter what with the top pick.
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Old 12-16-2009, 05:30 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBF1 View Post
5 of the top 10 picks did not make the re-do. 13 of 32 overall. Shows what a crap shoot the 1st round is. Remember this fans when it comes draft time.
It's early yet for a redo. Some players take longer to develop than others.

I figure of the 13 that didnt make the re-do, probably 6 or 7 of them will by year 3 be worth their #1 draft slot.

I dont think more than 6 or 7 players from the 1st round are busts in any given year. I think that number jumps probably 2 or 3 players per round though.

So by the second round you have 8-10 busts, the third round 10-15 busts, etc.
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Old 12-16-2009, 06:15 AM   #6
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They should do it again in 5 years.
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Old 12-16-2009, 06:35 AM   #7
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but, but, but....Moreno is a BUST

remember
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Old 12-16-2009, 07:15 AM   #8
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I agree that Ayers hasn't played like a first rounder....yet.

However, he has been a contributor as a rookie and he looks like he is definitely capable. I am going with Mike Mayock here in saying Ayers could be one of the top D-linemen from this draft in about 2-3 years. He's at least moving in the right direction.

I also think Moreno will get even better this offseason. I think that McCoach and McDennison will get very serious about LG and C this offseason and we will be even stronger running between the tackles. Most RB's not named Barry Sanders usually get tackled for no gain when the O-line gets pushed back 2 yards at the snap.

I think we did ok this draft. My biggest question mark is still Alphonso Smith. I don't mind that he hasn't been extremely productive, the other side is how many penalties he seems to draw on ST. That's a minus in my book. The jury is still out on Smith.
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Old 12-16-2009, 07:19 AM   #9
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Al Wilson wasn't the badass he was his first year either.
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Old 12-16-2009, 07:33 AM   #10
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Al Wilson wasn't the badass he was his first year either.
And some 1st round bust named Trevor Pryce was almost cut in camp and wasn't active for the first half of the season. That guy must have worked his way up to ass't manager at a McDonald's by now.
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Old 12-16-2009, 07:35 AM   #11
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But, but, but I thought the draft experts on the Mane said the USC LBs were going to be a bunch of busts.
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Old 12-16-2009, 07:49 AM   #12
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How about a 2010 first round projection with the Broncos two first round picks?

Oh...wait...
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Old 12-17-2009, 02:30 AM   #13
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Old 12-17-2009, 06:59 AM   #14
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What's the story with Tyson Jackson this year?
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Old 12-17-2009, 07:58 AM   #15
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I would much prefer Raji over Delmas. I'm convinced that D-line has a far greater impact than safety does.
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Old 12-17-2009, 08:23 AM   #16
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This is exactly why those melting down over Denver's picks need to relax. For one, it's too early. For another, you can go back and second guess almost every pick in every draft. For example, we all love Eddie Royal but if you could go back would you take DeSean Jackson instead? I would, and that's no knock on Eddie or the pick. Jackson is just more of a difference maker. Also note how many of the 11 teams who picked ahead of Denver this year made "mistakes". Many of us wanted Tyson Jackson or Raji. Instead of moaning about the "failure" of Ayers perhaps we should be happy we didn't move up and pay these guys top 10 money.

Also note that many were moaning about Denver not taking Hood or Jerry, who were evaluated here to not make the cut.

Last edited by TonyR; 12-17-2009 at 08:26 AM..
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Old 12-17-2009, 08:38 AM   #17
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Denver Broncos (Original pick: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee)


Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...#ixzz0ZxuNyeNc
Get a free NFL Team Jacket and Tee with SI Subscription

RE-DO PICK: LOUIS DELMAS, S, WESTERN MICHIGANGiven the age and wealth of experience the Broncos have in their secondary, a young, play-making presence like Delmas would be a great fit for the future. Delmas has been one of the bright spots in Detroit this season, and the undersized hard hitter is reportedly the first rookie in NFL history to notch a safety, a fumble return for a touchdown and an interception in the same season. Works for me.

Its too soon to call this a bad pick. Way too soon. This is just nit picking BS on Sports Crapastrated's part.
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Old 12-17-2009, 08:44 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmhargrove View Post
I agree that Ayers hasn't played like a first rounder....yet.

However, he has been a contributor as a rookie and he looks like he is definitely capable. I am going with Mike Mayock here in saying Ayers could be one of the top D-linemen from this draft in about 2-3 years. He's at least moving in the right direction.

I also think Moreno will get even better this offseason. I think that McCoach and McDennison will get very serious about LG and C this offseason and we will be even stronger running between the tackles. Most RB's not named Barry Sanders usually get tackled for no gain when the O-line gets pushed back 2 yards at the snap.

I think we did ok this draft. My biggest question mark is still Alphonso Smith. I don't mind that he hasn't been extremely productive, the other side is how many penalties he seems to draw on ST. That's a minus in my book. The jury is still out on Smith.
Not to split hairs, but Barry Sanders used to get tackled for loss all the time. He'd just break a 60 yarder to even it out
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Old 12-17-2009, 08:46 AM   #19
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Quote:
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Not to split hairs, but Barry Sanders used to get tackled for loss all the time. He'd just break a 60 yarder to even it out
I've always said that Sanders was/is at least mildly overrated but I take a lot of flak for that opinion.
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Old 12-17-2009, 09:01 AM   #20
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Quote:
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Not to split hairs, but Barry Sanders used to get tackled for loss all the time. He'd just break a 60 yarder to even it out
This. Sanders, IMO, is overrated.
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Old 12-17-2009, 11:35 AM   #21
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* First-round picks who did not make the cut this time: No. 2 Jason Smith, Rams, OT; No. 3 Tyson Jackson, Chiefs, DE; No. 6 Andre Smith, Bengals, OT; No. 7 Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders, WR; No. 8 Eugene Monroe, Jaguars, OT; No. 11 Aaron Maybin, Bills, DE; No. 16 Larry English, Chargers, LB; No. 18 Robert Ayers, Broncos, DE-LB; No. 21 Alex Mack, Browns, C; No. 24 Peria Jerry, Falcons, DT; No. 27 Donald Brown, Colts, RB; No. 28 Eric Wood, Bills, G-C; No. 32 Evander Hood, Steelers, DT.
Look at how many of these guys are playing positions that take a few years to learn. Six of them are D lineman, five are O lineman, and two are skills position players. This list proves nothing except that drafting some positions offers a much more immediate reward than others, such as RB and LB, or are too hard to judge right away, like QB.
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Old 12-17-2009, 11:39 AM   #22
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but, but, but....Moreno is a BUST

remember

Taco and Dragster are not going to be happy with this.
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Old 12-17-2009, 11:50 AM   #23
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This. Sanders, IMO, is overrated.
NO WAY! You guys are crazy Immagine Sanders behind a mediocre line. The guy had to make 2 people miss just to get to the line of scrimmage.
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Old 12-17-2009, 01:27 PM   #24
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Can we trade Smith and a 3rd for Tyson?
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Old 12-17-2009, 01:31 PM   #25
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Can we trade Smith and a 3rd for Tyson?
Mike Tyson?
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