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Old 11-23-2009, 05:14 AM   #1
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Default Wildcard Looks Our Best Bet - How Many Wins Needed?

I'm not ruling out winning the division completely, but it looks very unlikely.

San Diego has 3 games which I can't see them losing. Home games against Kansas and Washington, and a trip to the Browns. That's 10 wins.

Outside of that there are 3 tough games left for them, going to Dallas and a resurgent Tennessee, as well as hosting the Bengals. I can't see them winning all three of those games, but I can't see them losing all three either.

Chargers will finish with either 11 or 12 wins is my guess, meaning we'd have to really get our **** together in the next six games to have a shot at the division. I still think we can beat Kansas twice and Oakland at Mile High, but Indy is likely a write-off meaning we'd need to beat both New York and Philly to get to 11 wins.

Basically, we need what is pretty much a best case scenario to play out and that's not very realistic to expect.

Pats, Bengals and Colts are gonna win their divisions too, barring some kind of outrageous events. Bengals may slip a bit but they own all tie breakers in their own division.

So, wildcard then.

Before yesterday I had the Steelers down as a shoe-in for one spot, but losing to Kansas yesterday was a setback. They have the Ravens to play twice, as well as Green Bay and Miami. Oakland and Cleveland should be W's. I figure they finish strong and make it to 11 wins and clinch one of the spots though. 10 wins would probably even do it for them.

Jacksonville sit at 6-4 and are tough to call. New England should beat them at Foxboro, and I expect the Jags to win at Cleveland. Aside from that, they have 4 games that are very tough to call. They could be the team that knocks off Indy IMO, they always play them hard. If the Jags get to 10 wins, we could be in a bit of trouble.

Texans are 5-4 and have a massive game tonight. If they slip to 5-5 tonight, then they'll struggle to finish with a positive record.

Ravens are a very good team but their schedule is gonna make it very tough on them. Steelers twice, and a trip to Green Bay. Poor ****ers even have to try and stop Jay Cutler. Winning 5 of their last 6 is a big ask, if they do that they own the tiebreaker over us though.

Miami are 5-5 too but I can't see them putting together a big run with a tough schedule and their best player done for the year.

My guess is that 10 wins is probably just enough for a wildcard spot, and the Jags will be the potential assblast there.

The game against New York on Thursday is all sorts of massive for us. This team is lacking confidence, you can see that. A win and I think we can turn that around, and having a week to rest up before going to Arrowhead will be nice.

Win Thursday and take care of the divisional games and we might see round three against San Diego in the wildcard. I still think a healthy Orton can give them a game.

Keep the faith.
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Old 11-23-2009, 05:19 AM   #2
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Denver lost their chance to make the playoffs yesterday.

All the other potential AFC wild cards are on the upswing.

And the Steelers and Ravens own head to head over the Broncos.
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Old 11-23-2009, 05:23 AM   #3
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Denver lost their chance to make the playoffs yesterday.

All the other potential AFC wild cards are on the upswing.

And the Steelers and Ravens own head to head over the Broncos.
If we get to 10 wins then we'll likely finish with a better record then B-More, which'll deem the head-to-head irrelevant.
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Old 11-23-2009, 06:15 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McSchism View Post
I'm not ruling out winning the division completely, but it looks very unlikely.

San Diego has 3 games which I can't see them losing. Home games against Kansas and Washington, and a trip to the Browns. That's 10 wins.

Outside of that there are 3 tough games left for them, going to Dallas and a resurgent Tennessee, as well as hosting the Bengals. I can't see them winning all three of those games, but I can't see them losing all three either.

Chargers will finish with either 11 or 12 wins is my guess, meaning we'd have to really get our **** together in the next six games to have a shot at the division. I still think we can beat Kansas twice and Oakland at Mile High, but Indy is likely a write-off meaning we'd need to beat both New York and Philly to get to 11 wins.

Basically, we need what is pretty much a best case scenario to play out and that's not very realistic to expect.

Pats, Bengals and Colts are gonna win their divisions too, barring some kind of outrageous events. Bengals may slip a bit but they own all tie breakers in their own division.

So, wildcard then.

Before yesterday I had the Steelers down as a shoe-in for one spot, but losing to Kansas yesterday was a setback. They have the Ravens to play twice, as well as Green Bay and Miami. Oakland and Cleveland should be W's. I figure they finish strong and make it to 11 wins and clinch one of the spots though. 10 wins would probably even do it for them.

Jacksonville sit at 6-4 and are tough to call. New England should beat them at Foxboro, and I expect the Jags to win at Cleveland. Aside from that, they have 4 games that are very tough to call. They could be the team that knocks off Indy IMO, they always play them hard. If the Jags get to 10 wins, we could be in a bit of trouble.

Texans are 5-4 and have a massive game tonight. If they slip to 5-5 tonight, then they'll struggle to finish with a positive record.

Ravens are a very good team but their schedule is gonna make it very tough on them. Steelers twice, and a trip to Green Bay. Poor ****ers even have to try and stop Jay Cutler. Winning 5 of their last 6 is a big ask, if they do that they own the tiebreaker over us though.

Miami are 5-5 too but I can't see them putting together a big run with a tough schedule and their best player done for the year.

My guess is that 10 wins is probably just enough for a wildcard spot, and the Jags will be the potential assblast there.

The game against New York on Thursday is all sorts of massive for us. This team is lacking confidence, you can see that. A win and I think we can turn that around, and having a week to rest up before going to Arrowhead will be nice.

Win Thursday and take care of the divisional games and we might see round three against San Diego in the wildcard. I still think a healthy Orton can give them a game.

Keep the faith.
11 wins to get in.
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Old 11-23-2009, 06:17 AM   #5
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Oh, and I'd be very surprised if we finish better than 8-8. The Chefs at home and Raiders at home and those will be tough games to win at this rate.
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Old 11-23-2009, 07:14 AM   #6
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Playoffs! You're talking playoffs!
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Old 11-23-2009, 07:15 AM   #7
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sky? falling.
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Old 11-23-2009, 07:22 AM   #8
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With the remaining schedule we have, and the inability to stop the run at all, I'd say:

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Old 11-23-2009, 07:25 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by meangene View Post
Playoffs! You're talking playoffs!
Yes, I am.

Fact is we're still right in the race for the wildcard spots, much as some of you want to pretend we've suddenly become the worst team in the league.

Do we need to improve on what we've done in the last few weeks? Absolutely, but this team is capable of turning it around, they've showed in the early part of the season they can play some very good football.

God forbid we try and discuss something relevant though.

If Orton can go on Thursday, we have more than a fair chance of beating NY.
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Old 11-23-2009, 07:27 AM   #10
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sky? falling.
Nope. It fell. Look, I was as optimistic as anyone going into this season. I knew we had a lot of roster re-tooling to do and brand new systems on offense and defense. But, I liked the roster moves, draft choices and even The Trade. I thought the team would improve as the season went on and we would be on the way to re-building this team. Then, we got off to this great start and that may have been the worst thing that could have happened. It created very high expectations in the players and the fans. When we came crashing back to earth, it has been a huge emotional letdown. I think the psyche of the team is shot right now. I still think we are heading in the right direction - we have some very talented offensive skill players but some glaring weakness on both lines. You can only mask that for so long before the league catches on and it has. We are a rebuilding football team and it may take a couple years to be legitimate playoff contenders. What has been needing to be done has begun. We cleared a lot of bad attitudes out of the locker room, got rid of a lot of dead cap space and are in position to move forward. But playoffs? This year? NO.
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Old 11-23-2009, 07:27 AM   #11
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Playoffs? Playoffs? Let them win ONE game before we start talking playoffs again.
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Old 11-23-2009, 07:36 AM   #12
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I'll settle for a another regular season win
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Old 11-23-2009, 07:46 AM   #13
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I'll be happy with 8-8 and tangible improvements from the team as the season ends. I didn't think this team would even be in a position to be thinking playoffs three months ago. I especially want to see the rookies make a difference.

With that said, I think McD and Nolan take a good look at what worked for us at the beginning of the year and we get back to playing agressive. There is no way we Indy or Philly in their stadiums, but we have a reasonable chance in the four other games. That is nine or ten wins. All of the teams that we are competing with for the wildcard have tough schedules to close out the season, so this can be done.
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Old 11-23-2009, 07:51 AM   #14
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assuming they can fix the problems in dove valley,

NE 7-3
MIA 5-5

CIN 7-3
PIT 6-4
BAL 5-5

INDY 10-0
JAX 6-4
HOU 5-4

SD 7-3
DEN 6-4

so the 2 WC spots will most likely be between MIA, PIT, BAL, JAX, HOU, and DEN.

PIT and BAL own tiebreakers over DEN, so we'd have to finish with a better record than either. most likely PIT gets the #5 spot. BAL could collapse and be out of the race with their remaining schedule. JAX has barely been winning and has 2 or 3 tough games remaining. could go either way with them. we'll know more about HOU after tonight's game. MIA has a couple of tough games left as well.

10-6 probably wraps up a WC spot this year. DEN absolutely must win 2 against KC and the remaining OAK game and pull off 1 more win (vs. NYG, INDY, or PHI) to be in. that gets them to 10-6 and they'd be on a 4-2 roll going into the playoffs, which might be enough to help them forget about this mid season slide. but McD has to fix these problems now.

- the O can't score
- the D can't stop people from scoring

so my answer to the question is... 10-6 and DEN is in, but probably in the #6 spot. which would be a road game @CIN or @NE or @SD.
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Old 11-23-2009, 08:10 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McSchism View Post
Yes, I am.

Fact is we're still right in the race for the wildcard spots, much as some of you want to pretend we've suddenly become the worst team in the league.

Do we need to improve on what we've done in the last few weeks? Absolutely, but this team is capable of turning it around, they've showed in the early part of the season they can play some very good football.

God forbid we try and discuss something relevant though.

If Orton can go on Thursday, we have more than a fair chance of beating NY.
Where we are is less important than where we're going. 4 losses in a row in which we've been dominated. Had they been last second heartbreaks or competitive games, your point would be better received. But this team is not only losing games, it's hemorrhaging. I'm not sure how you've concluded it's capable of turning it around, but I'm sure many here are looking at the same data and conclude just the opposite, that this team has peaked.
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Old 11-23-2009, 08:14 AM   #16
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Quote:
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With the remaining schedule we have, and the inability to stop the run at all, I'd say:

I was going to post the same thing. It's funny how well it fits with Denver right now.
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Old 11-23-2009, 08:15 AM   #17
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Playoffs? LMAO. These guys can barely complete forward passes.
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Old 11-23-2009, 08:25 AM   #18
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Where we are is less important than where we're going. 4 losses in a row in which we've been dominated. Had they been last second heartbreaks or competitive games, your point would be better received. But this team is not only losing games, it's hemorrhaging. I'm not sure how you've concluded it's capable of turning it around, but I'm sure many here are looking at the same data and conclude just the opposite, that this team has peaked.
Fair enough.

Steelers and Ravens just flat out beat us, can't deny that. Redskins game we only lost badly because we didn't have a QB in the second half. No way to say for sure that we win with Orton in for the 2nd half, but I reckon we would have.

Yesterday I pretty much wrote off as a loss the moment Simms took the field. If Orton can't go the rest of the year then I'd agree with you, we're ****ed.

But with him in there I think we can win some games. Giants are nothing special this year, homefield on a short week should help us there too.

If we win that game we arrest the slide to some extent.

Chiefs won't be the pushover it looked like it was gonna be, but they're hardly some powerhouse now. I like our chances against them still. Raiders are similiar.

Basically what it comes down to is that I think we can beat the Giants if Orton starts, and after that we still have three very winnable games left on the schedule. That might well be enough.

The NFL is all about hitting form at the right time, there's a very thin line between playing well and playing poorly. Right now we're playing poorly, but it's possible we can turn it around. You don't win 6 straight games without having some quality.

We're going through a bad patch now, but I don't buy this business that we've been exposed and all of a sudden are a terrible football team. We just need to turn it around.

Lose the next 2 and I'll be running a bath and plugging in the toaster though.
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Old 11-23-2009, 08:27 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McSchism View Post
I'm not ruling out winning the division completely, but it looks very unlikely.. . . . .My guess is that 10 wins is probably just enough for a wildcard spot. . . . .The game against New York on Thursday is all sorts of massive for us. This team is lacking confidence, you can see that. A win and I think we can turn that around. . . . .

Keep the faith.
I agree with all that. Sorry to cut your post down it was great analysis.

10-6 has to be done I think, and is doable. 11-5 would ice a wildcard. It's gonna be tough, but I still have hopes. In any case, it's too early to say flat out the team won't make the playoffs.
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Old 11-23-2009, 08:59 AM   #20
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We're gonna lose every game 100-2 to finish with a 5-11 record because the NFL will take a win away from us for sucking so bad. Chargers are going to win the SB, McD will get fired and we'll hire our waterboy to be the head coach. Ronald McDonald will buy the team and rename them the Denver Clowns. We'll be wearing red wigs instead of helmets. The water boy will hold a press conference in which he will announce that Chris Simms will be our franchise QB and the highest paid player in the league. We will win one game in the next decade and that will be a fluke win where Ed Hochuli makes a really bad call that allows us to win. After Chris Simms gets a career ending injury, we will trade for Jay Cutler and all the Denver fans will be happy again. Cutler will set an all-time NFL record with 52 INTs... in a game.
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Old 11-23-2009, 09:01 AM   #21
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We get 10 wins and earn a trip to Pittsburgh where we get screwed like a crack whore.

A good season IMO and we get better next year and make a run the year after.
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Old 11-23-2009, 09:03 AM   #22
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Playoffs? LMAO. These guys can barely complete forward passes.
With Simms at the helm even that seems to be beyond our capabilities.
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Old 11-23-2009, 09:07 AM   #23
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Right now this team can neither score points nor stop the opposition from doing the same.

I'm not sure how playoffs are being discussed.
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Old 11-23-2009, 09:16 AM   #24
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Denver lost their chance to make the playoffs yesterday.

All the other potential AFC wild cards are on the upswing.

And the Steelers and Ravens own head to head over the Broncos.
Yeah. Sure. Don't make me laugh.
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Old 11-23-2009, 09:17 AM   #25
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Broncos just need to win one fricken game, like now. McD needs to pull his kiddy head out of his inflated butt and realize something. Orton is a much better QB with a running game that is effective.

This team can win if it gets back to the basics. Run the ball, consume time on the clock, keep the defense fresh, have a system QB run the fricken system. Orton can win and he can throw. What Orton can't do is throw the ball 50 times a game.

The Broncos were running the ball effectively when Simms started the game. This is exactly what they have to do WHEN ORTON IS IN THE GAME.

Pound the ball. Ram it down the opposing team's fricken throats.

Then let Orton pick the opposing team appart with his accurate throws.

HOW HARD CAN IT BE?

I don't get it.

For some reason, McD abandons the run when Orton is playing and he gets all pass happy. Why?

Run the ball, run the ball, run the ball and then connect for some passes to Bmarsh, Scheffler, CBuck, Hillis, Royal...

I'm so frustrated with this team right now..
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