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Old 10-05-2009, 04:19 PM   #1
24champ
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Default Percentage of 5-0 teams going to the Playoffs?

I was searching around on google/yahoo to find out what percentage of teams that start out 4-0, go on to make the playoffs? Anyone know this?


Although I found on "accuscore" that they project that we have 49.5% chance of winning the division, and the Chargers have a 49.9% of winning the division. Raiders and Chiefs have zero chance.

They also say that Denver has 66% chance to make the playoffs, Chargers 67%, Raiders 1%, Chiefs 1%...


http://accuscore.com/nfl/tools/team-win-forecasts
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Old 10-05-2009, 04:28 PM   #2
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I was wondering about this yesterday, actually. The teams that started 0-3 and made the playoffs wasn't that impressive, but you've got to figure it's higher for 4-0...

I would guess 70-80%. Perhaps even higher.
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Old 10-05-2009, 04:33 PM   #3
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I remember a few years back the Vikings started 6 - 0 and failed to make the playoffs.
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Old 10-05-2009, 04:39 PM   #4
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It's too early to worry or wonder about playoffs.

People went from we are going 2-14 this yr, to we are going to win division!!!
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Old 10-05-2009, 04:42 PM   #5
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What's the percentage of teams that make the playoffs that are up 3 games with 3 to go?
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Old 10-05-2009, 04:42 PM   #6
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http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/A...t/Broncos.html

i like this site better tho for following chances of making playoffs
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Old 10-05-2009, 04:45 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cutthemdown View Post
It's too early to worry or wonder about playoffs.
Yeah for the players and coaches.

As a fan, this was discussed after the game, fans are excited and curious to how far this team could go. I am curious about what the statistics are for 4-0 teams that go to the playoffs.
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Old 10-05-2009, 04:50 PM   #8
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Way to early to talk playoffs. This thread needs to go
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Old 10-05-2009, 04:51 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McChad View Post
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/A...t/Broncos.html

i like this site better tho for following chances of making playoffs
Whoa.

That site lists a 96.1% chance of getting into the playoffs. Seems a little high.

I am still looking for a STATISTIC of 4-0 teams that make the playoffs.
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Old 10-05-2009, 04:52 PM   #10
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I believe I heard this right: the last 5 times Denver started 4-0, they went to the SB four of those years....and won two.
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Old 10-05-2009, 04:54 PM   #11
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Heard 86% of 4-0 teams make the playoffs on Mike & Mike's show this morning. They were actually speaking of the Broncos at the time.
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Old 10-05-2009, 04:57 PM   #12
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You have to take into account that we are the worst 4-0 team in history.
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Old 10-05-2009, 05:10 PM   #13
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we have a harder schedule with NE and Indy than SD does though, remember that.
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Old 10-05-2009, 05:11 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Elway View Post
You have to take into account that we are the worst 4-0 team in history.
Yeah.... and in addition to that, the Chargers are the best team in the history of the NFL....
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Old 10-05-2009, 05:21 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arkie View Post
What's the percentage of teams that make the playoffs that are up 3 games with 3 to go?
99.9%*

* see Denver Broncos, 2008

Pretty sure it was 100% until last year
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Old 10-05-2009, 05:29 PM   #16
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For what it's worth, there's a guy on ChiefsPlanet (cdcox) who is a major stats geek. He's designed a little program to predict the rest of the season given the results of previous weeks. This takes into account much more than just scores and results, so you get a pretty good peek at how things might play out.

http://nfl-forecast.com/

Anyway, his software is currently putting the Broncos' playoff chances at around 94.5%. Just thought you'd like to know.

P.S. Broncos suck.
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Old 10-05-2009, 05:31 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McChad View Post
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/A...t/Broncos.html

i like this site better tho for following chances of making playoffs
Cool site. The one big advantage that the program I posted above has over that site is that you have the ability to run scenarios if you'd like. In other words, you can override the assumptive odds of winning in a given game to say "If the Broncos lose their last four games, what are the odds they'll still make the playoffs" and that type of thing.
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Old 10-05-2009, 05:55 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
For what it's worth, there's a guy on ChiefsPlanet (cdcox) who is a major stats geek. He's designed a little program to predict the rest of the season given the results of previous weeks. This takes into account much more than just scores and results, so you get a pretty good peek at how things might play out.

http://nfl-forecast.com/

Anyway, his software is currently putting the Broncos' playoff chances at around 94.5%. Just thought you'd like to know.

P.S. Broncos suck.
This is a really cool site.
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Old 10-05-2009, 05:59 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arkie View Post
What's the percentage of teams that make the playoffs that are up 3 games with 3 to go?
Last year's Broncos were the first team in NFL history to do that.
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Old 10-05-2009, 06:02 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Que View Post
This is a really cool site.
I suppose I should mention the caveat given by cdcox himself:

The "power ratings" are purely based on a team's performance thus far in the regular season. Four games is a pretty small sample size, so things could always change that would fundamentally shift the assumptions of the model. The basic idea is that the program assumes the team will play reasonably close to the way it has played thus far in the year.
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Old 10-05-2009, 06:16 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arkie View Post
What's the percentage of teams that make the playoffs that are up 3 games with 3 to go?
with or without Cutler?

with = 0%
without = 100%

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Old 10-05-2009, 06:20 PM   #22
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Old 10-05-2009, 06:26 PM   #23
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PLAYOFFS? your are talking about PLAYOFFS?
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Old 10-05-2009, 06:35 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McChad View Post
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/A...t/Broncos.html

i like this site better tho for following chances of making playoffs
this site gives us a great, great chance at 12-4, really good chance at 11-5 and 13-3.
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Old 10-05-2009, 07:12 PM   #25
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I'm the site owner of nfl-forecast.com (cdcox on ChiefsPlanet). Last year, with a 3 game lead with 3 games to go the Broncos had a 97% chance of winning the Division. I use http://advancednflstats.com to calculate my single game odds. That power rating system had the Chargers rated as a better team than Denver all season long, despite the Bronco's better record for most of the season.

Here is a graph showing the Bronco's playoff chances this year as a function of number of games won. 10-6 gives you a really good chance, anything better is an almost lock. The tie-breakers in the software are rock solid, which become really important near the end of the season. After about week 10 or so you can do some really detailed scenario analysis with the software. It would be cool if someone on this site became the playoff expert. As DaFace pointed out, results this early in the season should be taken with a grain of salt.
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