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Old 10-02-2009, 01:45 AM   #1
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http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com..._Rankings.html
By Jonathan Comey
Cold, Hard Football Facts Commissioner of Power and Light

With a huge crop of new coaches, you expect a little variance in their early performances. Some will bring new enthusiasm. Some will struggle to fix prior mistakes.

But boy, has it been feast or famine so far.

The Jets and Broncos love their new guys. Rex Ryan has brought in a new culture to New York, and so has Josh McDaniels to Denver. They're both undefeated and are the two surprise teams of the league.

However, things couldn't possibly be worse for the four new coaches occupying the bottom four spots in this week's rankings.

With the way Cleveland has played, Eric Mangini must wonder if he can line up a good college job for 2010. If there's a caveat, it's that they've easily played the toughest schedule of anyone in the NFL so far (Minnesota, Baltimore and Denver, a combined 9-0).

In Kansas City, Todd Haley has two blowout losses to good teams and one collar-tightening loss to the Raiders – in a game where the Chiefs outgained Oakland 409-166.

Steve Spagnuolo's Rams look as inept as they did a year ago; they're being outscored by an average of 16.3 points per game, which is even worse than their pathetic -14.6 PPG in 2008.

Raheem Morris took over a 9-7 Bucs team that almost made the playoffs, cleaned house, and now can't do anything right. Last time we checked, Tampa teams didn't allow 6.6 yards per play.

All in all, six of the bottom seven teams are coached by new guys, and the only one inspiring enthusiasm is Jim Schwartz in Detroit – a place where one win is like 10 wins in a real NFL town. Hope these guys didn't buy million-dollar homes in their new cities (or, in Schwartz's case, a $100,000 home in Detroit).

Our top six teams all won in Week 3, but there was some shuffling of the order. Any of these top six could lay a claim to the No.1 spot - including Denver, which has been criminally underrated thus far despite an epic defensive run.

But No. 1 stays the same – the Giants, who have displayed the most balance to go with three impressive wins.

1. N.Y. GIANTS (3-0). Last week: 24-0 win at Tampa Bay. The Giants are in the top six in five major stat categories: scoring offense, scoring defense, turnover margin, total offense and total defense. Their win over Tampa Sunday was one of the most lopsided in recent memory: they outgained the Bucs 397-86.

2. NEW ORLEANS (3-0). Last week: 27-7 win at Buffalo. The Unsung Hero award should go to offensive line coach Aaron Cromer. With Pro Bowl left tackle Jammal Brown out, the Saints should be struggling. Instead, the first-year O-line coach has plugged in Jermon Bushrod and they haven't skipped a beat - they've allowed four sacks in 101 dropbacks and the running game averages 5.02 YPA. The Saints are No. 1 on the Offensive Hog Index.

3. BALTIMORE (3-0). Last week: 34-3 win vs. Cleveland. Life is grand in Baltimore, where the Ravens average 1.3 yards per play and 10.2 points per game more than last year. But they'll be tested – Baltimore’s next five opponents have a combined record of 12-3 through Week 3.

4. N.Y. JETS (3-0). Last week: 24-17 win vs. Tennessee. Last Sunday, Kerry Collins completed just 15 of 37 passes with a 41.5 rating against the Jets – this performance came after Tom Brady's 53.1 and Matt Schaub's 55.9. New York opponents this year have thrown 77 passes to wide receivers and completed just 35 of them. The Jets boast a 50.2 Defensive Passer Rating (No. 2 behind the Giants) and they match wits with Drew Brees this Sunday. After that, the DPR will improve as they face Chad Henne/Pat White (twice), JaMarcus Russell and Trent Edwards.

5. DENVER (3-0). Last week: 23-3 win at Oakland. Folks, could we please recognize defense? The Broncos have allowed 5.3 points per game, 3.9 yards per play and have forced eight turnovers. More importantly, when looking at the Broncos through our Quality Stats, they are No. 1 in Bendability, No. 2 in the critical Defensive Hog Index and No. 3 in Defensive Passer Rating. But national “pundits” like Peter King had them 11th in his Monday Morning power rankings. Eleventh!! ESPN.com? Even worse – 13th!! If the Broncos were doing on offense what they're doing on defense, they'd be the toast of the NFL.

6. INDIANAPOLIS (3-0). Last week: 31-10 win at Arizona. Including last year's postseason, Peyton Manning has produced only one game with a passer rating under 90 over his last 13 starts. Over that span, he's thrown 26 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Colts through three games average a stunning 9.88 Passing Yards Per Attempt, even using our formula that counts sacks among team attempts. If they can keep up that pace over the course of the season, it would easily smash any modern records for passing production.

7. MINNESOTA (3-0). Last week: 27-24 win vs. San Francisco. Adrian Peterson is on pace for 1,904 yards, 21 TDs and 6.1 YPA. Jim Brown, in his best year, averaged 6.3 YPA. So yes, Vikings fans are happy they chose Peterson over the expected pick, Brady Quinn, in the 2007 draft.

8. PHILADELPHIA (2-1). Last week: 34-14 win vs. Kansas City. DeSean Jackson led the Eagles in receiving yards last year (912) and is on pace to lead them this year (259 so far). They haven't had one receiver lead the team in yards three straight seasons since Mike Quick did it from 1983-87. From 1988-2008, the Eagles fielded 14 different leading receivers over 21 seasons.

9. NEW ENGLAND (2-1). Last week: 26-10 win vs. Atlanta. The Patriots are among the league leaders in total offense (4th) and total defense (7th), even though they're 15th in yards per play and 17th in yards per play allowed. Why? Great success on third downs. They're fourth offensively (47 percent), seventh defensively (30 percent).

10. DALLAS (2-1). Last week: 21-7 win vs. Carolina. If the Cowboy tailbacks were one person, he'd be the easy front-runner for MVP. Mariofelix Barchoice has 515 yards on 75 carries (6.9 average) and four TDs.

11. GREEN BAY (2-1). Last week: 36-17 win at St. Louis. The Packers win was the greatest game for fullbacks since Jim Brown was running wild in the 1960s. Jon Kuhn of Green Bay and Daniel Fells of the Rams both touched the ball twice – and scored twice. Combined weight: 522 pounds. The Cold, Hard Football Facts crew, meanwhile, has touched the ball many, many times, and has still never scored. Combined weight: 6˝ tons.

12. SAN DIEGO (2-1). Last week: 23-13 win vs. Miami. Vincent Jackson has quietly become a legit No. 1 NFL receiver. His last eight regular-season games dating back to 2008 project out to 72 catches for 1,424 yards and 8 TD for a complete year, and he's got old-school yards-per-catch averages of 18.6 (2008) and 19.8 (2009). Philip Rivers, meanwhile, entered the official record books after Week 2 (min. 1,500 career pass attempts). He’s No. 5 all time in career passer rating (92.36), a micro-fraction behind Tom Brady (92.41) and a shade ahead of Joe Montana (92.26).

13. SAN FRANCISCO (2-1). Last week: 27-24 loss at Minnesota. Before the 49ers got Favre-d – sending certain members of the CHFF crew into an irrational fit of denial – they were heading for their first 3-0 start since 1998, when Steve Young was throwing to Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens.

14. CINCINNATI (2-1). Last week: 23-20 win vs. Pittsburgh. Even though he was held sackless Sunday, Antwan Odom is still off to one of the hottest three-game starts since the league started tracking sacks in the early 1980s. Only Mark Gastineau (8 with the 1984 Jets) and William Gay (7.5 for the 1983 Lions) have topped Odom’s seven-sack output through three games. (Three others also recorded seven sacks through three games.)

15. CHICAGO (2-1). Last week: 25-19 win at Seattle. Since Jay Cutler's astonishingly bad debut, he's posted passer ratings of 104.7 and 126.4 his last two weeks. The Bears have won both games.

16. ATLANTA (2-1). Last week: 26-10 loss at New England. Jake Delhomme isn't the only player suffering the curse of the 2008 playoffs. Falcons RB Michael Turner was held to 42 yards on 18 carries in Atlanta's playoff loss to Arizona last year. This year, he doesn't have a run over 16 yards and averages just 3.5 YPA.

17. PITTSBURGH (1-2). Last week: 23-20 loss at Cincinnati. Pittsburgh’s three games were all decided by three points, against teams ranked 14th, 15th and 22nd in these rankings. That’s remarkably average for a Super Bowl champ. The biggest surprise has been the lack of push up front from the defense. The Steelers, No. 1 in our Defensive Hog Index last year, have fallen to No. 17 this year and have forced negative pass plays (sack or INT) on just 4.39 percent of opposing dropbacks (29th).

18. SEATTLE (1-2). Last week: 25-19 loss vs. Chicago. The Seahawks showed a lot of heart Sunday despite their loss to Chicago. With Matt Hasselbeck, Walter Jones and Lofa Tatupu all inactive, the Seahawks had five times the number of Pro Bowls appearances on the bench (15) than they did in the starting lineup (Patrick Kerney 2; T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 1).

19. BUFFALO (1-2). Last week: 27-7 loss vs. New Orleans. If Terrell Owens/Buffalo fans are looking for some hopeful signs, consider the last time he came out of the gate slowly, 2002. Through three games, he boasted just 114 yards, only a smidge better than the 98 he has now. His final numbers that year: 100 catches, 1,300 yards, 13 TDs and a first-team All-Pro nod.

20. JACKSONVILLE (1-2). Last week: 31-24 win in Houston. The Jags got 56.3 percent of their offense from players with hyphenated names Sunday (Jones-Drew 147, Sims-Walker 81).

21. ARIZONA (1-2). Last week: 31-10 loss vs. Colts. The Cardinals did attempt to establish the run vs. Indy in the first half, but couldn't get going against Indy's weak run D (12 carries, 24 yards for the game). So then it was Warner chucking it 52 times, a classic sight of late. Since 2007, he's had four games of 50+ attempts; no other QB has done it more than twice. The record of QBs with 50+ passes since 2007 is 6-16-1. As we noted two weeks ago, the all-time record of QBs with 50+ pass attempts is 77-283-6 (.219). That’s not good, for those of you keeping score at home.

22. TENNESSEE (0-3). Last week: 24-17 loss at N.Y. Jets. From 2007-08, the Titans were 10-3 in games decided by 7 points or fewer. All three of their losses here in 2009 have been by seven points or less.

23. HOUSTON (1-2). Last week: 31-24 loss to Jacksonville. In case you missed it, Houston’s run defense is horrendous. They've already allowed 612 yards, six TDs and an atrocious 6.2 YPA on the ground. The single worst run defense in NFL history, the mighty 1934 Cincinnati Reds, surrendered 6.4 YPA on the ground. But in their defense, Bench and Geronimo were injured that year, so the Reds were weak up the middle. Not surprisingly, the Texans are 32nd on our Defensive Hog Index.

24. WASHINGTON (1-2). Last week: 19-14 loss at Detroit. If you can't say something nice about someone, don't say anything at all. There is one back-handed compliment: there’s so much dead-weight floating around the NFL this year that an entire quarter of the league is still worse than them.

25. MIAMI (0-3). Last week: 23-13 loss at San Diego. The Dolphins have allowed just 41 more yards on defense (992) they've generated on offense (951). But their ranks of 28th in Scoreability and 24th in Bendability go a long way toward explaining their 0-3 record. They are not a sound, efficient team right now.

26. OAKLAND (1-2). Last week: 23-3 loss vs. Denver. How do you know if you're going nowhere? You lose to Oakland. The Raiders haven’t beaten a team that would end up making the playoffs since a win over the Redskins in 2005. Their one win this year came against 0-3 Kansas City – so that streak looks safe again here in 2009.

27. CAROLINA (0-3). Last week: When did punters develop bionic legs? The league leader in punting average would be the mid-40-yard range for years, but it's been climbing and climbing and, as we noted at the start of the season, we now live in the Golden Age of Punting. This year, Carolina's Jason Baker averages 51.8 yards per boot ...and he's only third! Sammy Baugh would be proud. He holds the existing single-season record of 51.4 yards per punt, a mark certainly under threat this year.

28. DETROIT (1-2). Last week: 19-14 win vs. Washington. The Lions haven't won a game since … oh, wait, since Sunday! Wow. That was fun to type.

29. KANSAS CITY (0-3). Last week: 34-14 loss at Philadelphia. A success rate of 19 percent success on third downs (and 44 percent success against) isn't going to get you far. Which is good, because the Chiefs are going very far. As noted earlier this week, the Chiefs are 2-26 over their last 28 games. The Lions are 3-25.

30. CLEVELAND (0-3). Last week: 34-3 loss at Baltimore. Left tackle Joe Thomas is a two-time Pro Bowler, but should he be? The Browns are 32nd on the Offensive Hog Index this year, were 27th last year, and since the line is built around him, he's got to be at least partially responsible.

31. ST. LOUIS (0-3). Last week: 36-17 loss vs. Green Bay. At least the offense is getting better; they've gone from zero to seven to 17 points in three games. Yep. There's a bright side.

32. TAMPA BAY (0-3). Last week: 24-0 loss vs. N.Y. Giants. The Bucs are being outrushed by more than 100 yards per game this season (187.3 to 86.3).
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Old 10-02-2009, 01:56 AM   #2
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i love the recognition, but until the offense starts firing the way it is capable of doing, i would have to rank Indy, Minnesotta, and Phily (if McNabb is playing) ahead of us.
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Old 10-02-2009, 01:59 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by BroncoMan4ever View Post
i love the recognition, but until the offense starts firing the way it is capable of doing, i would have to rank Indy, Minnesotta, and Phily (if McNabb is playing) ahead of us.
I'll give you that. I really like all the things this site had to say though. I will be going here for info more often. It is kinda nice not to get all the main stream BS.
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Old 10-02-2009, 02:29 AM   #4
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They aren't going to keep this up all season with this offense. If they don't find a way to ratchet things up one more notch they are going to get a serious beat down. It is inevitable.

I am thankful this team is winning. Whiner fans are simply the worst.
I am thankful this team has a defense and some consistency. Bravo!
I am really happy that Josh is finally getting some objective press.

The Broncos have three serious tests coming up. Dallas, New England and then Monday night with the Chargers. If they come out 1-2 they can still recover. 2-1 and they are seriously one of the better teams out there. 3-0 and they are going to the playoffs. These next three games are that important.
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Old 10-02-2009, 07:40 AM   #5
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Great rankings!

I like the fact that he ranked them first by W/L record, and then by what they did in the games. Too many of these "experts" let their preseason predictions color their rankings...rather than wins and how they played.
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Old 10-02-2009, 08:42 AM   #6
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An overly optimistic view in my opinion--I like the improvements on our defense for sure--but I don't think that defense will be our identity after this season concludes, I expect us to finish around 15th-20th. For Sunday, I expect Dallas to score in the low twenties against us which means that it will be up to Orton to keep pace with a top notch QB. I am VERY skeptical--but if he proves he can do it--then I will gladly eat a healthy serving of internet message board crow---If we only win one of the next three, PLEASE MAKE IT AGAINST SD!
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Old 10-02-2009, 08:45 AM   #7
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The offense is fine, just need to work on the red zone a bit. Folks, we should have put up 40+ on the raiders.
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Old 10-02-2009, 08:47 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quiettiger View Post
They aren't going to keep this up all season with this offense. If they don't find a way to ratchet things up one more notch they are going to get a serious beat down. It is inevitable.

I am thankful this team is winning. Whiner fans are simply the worst.
I am thankful this team has a defense and some consistency. Bravo!
I am really happy that Josh is finally getting some objective press.

The Broncos have three serious tests coming up. Dallas, New England and then Monday night with the Chargers. If they come out 1-2 they can still recover. 2-1 and they are seriously one of the better teams out there. 3-0 and they are going to the playoffs. These next three games are that important.
While I agree that the offense can step it up for sure, youre acting as if they've been completely inept. The last two weeks, the offense has been quite effective. Its played great, ball control offense. Its set out to do exactly what it was supposed to. And remember, they are STILL getting used to the new O.
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Old 10-02-2009, 08:54 AM   #9
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Quote:
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An overly optimistic view in my opinion--I like the improvements on our defense for sure--but I don't think that defense will be our identity after this season concludes, I expect us to finish around 15th-20th. For Sunday, I expect Dallas to score in the low twenties against us which means that it will be up to Orton to keep pace with a top notch QB. I am VERY skeptical--but if he proves he can do it--then I will gladly eat a healthy serving of internet message board crow---If we only win one of the next three, PLEASE MAKE IT AGAINST SD!
What top notch QB is Orton going to have to keep up with on Sunday? Dallas doesn't have one.

THey managed 13 points against the lowly Panthers on offense...>AT HOME.

Give me a break.
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Old 10-02-2009, 09:01 AM   #10
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The offense is fine, just need to work on the red zone a bit. Folks, we should have put up 40+ on the raiders.
Completely agree. Oakland put up an impressive goal line stand that most teams could not muster. We also made some mistakes in there (Hillis had a false start on the 1, right?) that can be corrected.

I think we definitely have the personnel to punch it in better than we did. The way we are able to move the ball on offense, and the improvement week to week - I think we are capable of scoring 30 points on Dallas. We'll see.
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Old 10-02-2009, 09:06 AM   #11
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What top notch QB is Orton going to have to keep up with on Sunday? Dallas doesn't have one.

THey managed 13 points against the lowly Panthers on offense...>AT HOME.

Give me a break.
That's CRAZY talk--the Panthers WERE DESPERATE. Romo is THREE times the Qb that Orton is--Romo is just below the top tier (Brady, Manning(s)) and is in with Big Ben, CUTLER,McNabb, Rodgers, rivers, Warner and possibly Flacco who has been AMAZING this year

Last edited by broncofan7; 10-02-2009 at 09:10 AM..
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Old 10-02-2009, 09:14 AM   #12
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That's CRAZY talk--the Panthers WERE DESPERATE. Romo is THREE times the Qb that Orton is--Romo is just below the top tier (Brady, Manning(s)) and is in with Big Ben, CUTLER,McNabb, Rodgers, rivers, Warner and possibly Flacco who has been AMAZING this year
Hahaha, Romo is not an elite QB dude, not even in the "Good tier".

With the talent in Dallas, Romo should at least have made the NFC CHampionship game at least once yet he cant even win a freaking playoff game.

OVER RATED.
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Old 10-02-2009, 09:25 AM   #13
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Old 10-02-2009, 11:07 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by broncofan7 View Post
That's CRAZY talk--the Panthers WERE DESPERATE. Romo is THREE times the Qb that Orton is--Romo is just below the top tier (Brady, Manning(s)) and is in with Big Ben, CUTLER,McNabb, Rodgers, rivers, Warner and possibly Flacco who has been AMAZING this year
I hope you were talking about fantasy football above and not actual football (Experience/age, leadership, decision making & stats)

Tier 1:
Manning
Brady
Brees

Tier 2:
Big Ben
Rivers
McNabb
Warner
Palmer
Rodgers
Manning

Tier 3:
Schaub
Ryan
Flacco
Cutler
Romo
Orton

Tier 4:
Hasselbeck
Hill
Edwards
Sanchez
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Old 10-02-2009, 11:41 AM   #15
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I had NO idea that Denver was #2 in the critical defensive hog index!
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Old 10-02-2009, 12:05 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HAT View Post
I hope you were talking about fantasy football above and not actual football (Experience/age, leadership, decision making & stats)

Tier 1:
Manning
Brady
Brees

Tier 2:
Big Ben
Rivers
McNabb
Warner
Palmer
Rodgers
Manning

Tier 3:
Schaub
Ryan
Flacco
Cutler
Romo
Orton

Tier 4:
Hasselbeck
Hill
Edwards
Sanchez

That's a pretty good list. Sanchez will eventually be a tier 2 guy.
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Old 10-02-2009, 12:05 PM   #17
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29. KANSAS CITY (0-3). Last week: 34-14 loss at Philadelphia. A success rate of 19 percent success on third downs (and 44 percent success against) isn't going to get you far. Which is good, because the Chiefs are going very far. As noted earlier this week, the Chiefs are 2-26 over their last 28 games. The Lions are 3-25.

:: :: I did not know they sucked that bad :: ::
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Old 10-02-2009, 12:07 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by broncofan7 View Post
That's CRAZY talk--the Panthers WERE DESPERATE. Romo is THREE times the Qb that Orton is--Romo is just below the top tier (Brady, Manning(s)) and is in with Big Ben, CUTLER,McNabb, Rodgers, rivers, Warner and possibly Flacco who has been AMAZING this year
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Old 10-02-2009, 12:08 PM   #19
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You forgot:

Tier 15:

Ryan Leaf
Kordell Stewart
Jamarcus Russel
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