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Old 08-28-2013, 05:39 PM   #726
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Originally Posted by Arkie View Post
You should sell any stocks to pay for gold at today's prices and especially at the prices a month ago when gold was at selling cost. My challenge still stands. Pick any stock you think will outperform gold over 6 months starting today.

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showpos...&postcount=698

This challenge is just a game, not investment advice for people taking my side. Timing the market is the hardest part. I don't pick the dates when to sell, just the prices. I won't sell in 6 months if gold outperforms stocks. I will only sell some gold when it's over $2200, or when the dow/gold ratio is below 5. That could be a matter of months or years. Too many variables are in play that can be manipulated.

You still don't understand. Six months is nothing. It's pretty sad at this point.
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Old 08-28-2013, 05:54 PM   #727
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Originally Posted by Arkie View Post
You should sell any stocks to pay for gold at today's prices and especially at the prices a month ago when gold was at selling cost. My challenge still stands. Pick any stock you think will outperform gold over 6 months starting today.

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showpos...&postcount=698

This challenge is just a game, not investment advice for people taking my side. Timing the market is the hardest part. I don't pick the dates when to sell, just the prices. I won't sell in 6 months if gold outperforms stocks. I will only sell some gold when it's over $2200, or when the dow/gold ratio is below 5. That could be a matter of months or years. Too many variables are in play that can be manipulated.
When gold starts paying at least a 6% dividend, raises it annually and can be valued based upon earnings and profits, I'll look at it.
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Old 08-28-2013, 06:15 PM   #728
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Well the markets seem to be agreeing with me. Perhaps if you listened you are up about 20% since this post.
Gold has been a decent short term play the last 6 weeks, for sure, but the general "bounce" from QE shenanigans was not limited to gold by any means. Many of my investment are up that much or more in that time period (one is up almost 70%), though the bulk of what I have is in mutual funds that have been net flat (value wise) since the end of June so overall I'm only up (value wise) about 7% in that time. I haven't done the math on dividends, but typically in a quarter I make 2-3% in dividends too which would put me at about 10% up. I'm (mostly) a long game investor, not a short term gambler, so that's how it rolls.

Yay for short term plays!

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Old 08-28-2013, 06:17 PM   #729
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When gold starts paying at least a 6% dividend, raises it annually and can be valued based upon earnings and profits, I'll look at it.
And when you don't lose 20% to fees, markup, shipping, etc. Or pay double the tax on long term gains.
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Old 08-28-2013, 06:35 PM   #730
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You should sell any stocks to pay for gold at today's prices and especially at the prices a month ago when gold was at selling cost.
Sell all your stocks and go all in on Gold? That's perhaps the singularly most idiotic financial advice I have seen in years.
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Old 08-28-2013, 07:30 PM   #731
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Arkie and Meck77: Let's do the math on this, shall we?

Say, for argument's sake, you were clarvoyant, and knew to buy gold @ ~$1220 when it bottomed out in July. The current spot price is 1409. Say you bought 10 gold bullion coins.

So, you're now up 15.5% right? (note, this isn't even the 20% that has, I think, been claimed). That's a really great return for 30 days! Woohoo!

Err wait, not so fast. Despite the spot price being $1220, that's not what you could actually buy gold for. You had to buy from a cheap online dealer, and even the reputable ones charge 5-6% over spot (in quantities of at least $10,000/purchase) as their base price. There are also several other fees:

* If you're smart and pay cash, you have to do a wire transfer which can cost an average of $20
* If you're dumb and buy with a credit card, you typically pay another 3% fee since the dealers want to recover their fees to the credit card companies. (many dealers won't even accept credit cards)
* Then you have to ship/insure, which is typically a flat fee + a % of your purchase. Kitco is a dealer I've used before, and they charge $30 + $4/$1,000 (7.5/1000 for silver). For our purchase, that's about $80 in shipping.

Then, when I go to sell, I have to pay wire transfer fees and shipping fees again. It's almost certain that it'll cost significantly more to ship to a dealer since they probably get a bulk discount on shipping, but for argument's sake we'll say it's the same cost again (another $20 + $80 ).

Most dealer's won't pay you that 5% over spot to buy it back, typically they buy back @ 1-2% over spot.

So, to turn around those 10 coins at a buy spot price of $1220 and a sell spot price of 1409, I actually have to pay (using real values from Kitco)

Purchase:
$12,200 + $650 (markup) + $20 (wire fee buy) + $80 (shipping from) = $12,950 or $1,295 per coin ($75 over spot)

Sale:
$14,090 + $250 (markup) - $20 (wire fee) - $80 (shipping fee) = $14,240 or $1,424 per coin ( $15 over spot)

So, my actual return (bets case scenario) is: 10%

If I buy locally, the shipping/insurance/etc. is just built into the markup instead.

Taking gold as a short term play is not a particularly good idea (it's worked out fairly well in this case, but only because of a particularly large bounce). The risk/reward just isn't there for that kind of high risk move. The hit you take in markup and fees (in this case 1/3) is brutal.

I made that (10%) with stocks/mutual funds being very conservative having the bulk of my assets in mutual funds. (note:I pay right now $4.99 a trade, which actually get's figured into my gains/losses which helps mitigate that). Had I been a lot more into my aggressive investments, I could have made significantly more in that time frame.

Also: not unsurprisingly, 10% is pretty much exactly the performance of gold ETFs over this time period

Last edited by Fedaykin; 08-28-2013 at 07:39 PM..
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Old 08-28-2013, 10:32 PM   #732
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Originally Posted by Fedaykin View Post
Arkie and Meck77: Let's do the math on this, shall we?

Say, for argument's sake, you were clarvoyant, and knew to buy gold @ ~$1220 when it bottomed out in July. The current spot price is 1409. Say you bought 10 gold bullion coins.

So, you're now up 15.5% right? (note, this isn't even the 20% that has, I think, been claimed). That's a really great return for 30 days! Woohoo!

Err wait, not so fast. Despite the spot price being $1220, that's not what you could actually buy gold for. You had to buy from a cheap online dealer, and even the reputable ones charge 5-6% over spot (in quantities of at least $10,000/purchase) as their base price. There are also several other fees:

* If you're smart and pay cash, you have to do a wire transfer which can cost an average of $20
* If you're dumb and buy with a credit card, you typically pay another 3% fee since the dealers want to recover their fees to the credit card companies. (many dealers won't even accept credit cards)
* Then you have to ship/insure, which is typically a flat fee + a % of your purchase. Kitco is a dealer I've used before, and they charge $30 + $4/$1,000 (7.5/1000 for silver). For our purchase, that's about $80 in shipping.

Then, when I go to sell, I have to pay wire transfer fees and shipping fees again. It's almost certain that it'll cost significantly more to ship to a dealer since they probably get a bulk discount on shipping, but for argument's sake we'll say it's the same cost again (another $20 + $80 ).

Most dealer's won't pay you that 5% over spot to buy it back, typically they buy back @ 1-2% over spot.

So, to turn around those 10 coins at a buy spot price of $1220 and a sell spot price of 1409, I actually have to pay (using real values from Kitco)

Purchase:
$12,200 + $650 (markup) + $20 (wire fee buy) + $80 (shipping from) = $12,950 or $1,295 per coin ($75 over spot)

Sale:
$14,090 + $250 (markup) - $20 (wire fee) - $80 (shipping fee) = $14,240 or $1,424 per coin ( $15 over spot)

So, my actual return (bets case scenario) is: 10%

If I buy locally, the shipping/insurance/etc. is just built into the markup instead.

Taking gold as a short term play is not a particularly good idea (it's worked out fairly well in this case, but only because of a particularly large bounce). The risk/reward just isn't there for that kind of high risk move. The hit you take in markup and fees (in this case 1/3) is brutal.

I made that (10%) with stocks/mutual funds being very conservative having the bulk of my assets in mutual funds. (note:I pay right now $4.99 a trade, which actually get's figured into my gains/losses which helps mitigate that). Had I been a lot more into my aggressive investments, I could have made significantly more in that time frame.

Also: not unsurprisingly, 10% is pretty much exactly the performance of gold ETFs over this time period
IMHO the play with gold is with the miners ETFs

Last edited by ak1971; 08-28-2013 at 10:39 PM..
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Old 08-28-2013, 10:46 PM   #733
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Currency is the play right now. Remember this statement
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Old 08-29-2013, 03:49 AM   #734
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Currency is the play right now. Remember this statement
All currency? Isn't that a zero-sum game?
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Old 08-29-2013, 07:43 AM   #735
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All currency? Isn't that a zero-sum game?
not ALL currency just the one's that are about to revalue
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Old 08-29-2013, 11:46 AM   #736
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When gold starts paying at least a 6% dividend, raises it annually and can be valued based upon earnings and profits, I'll look at it.
Here's a few gold mining stocks with 5-7% divs

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Old 08-29-2013, 11:56 AM   #737
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You still don't understand. Six months is nothing. It's pretty sad at this point.
13 years and counting...

The gold bull started in 1999, but the bull run is measured in price not years. The 2nd half may only take a year. The first half has taken 13 years. The correction from 2011 to 2013 reminds me of the gold correction from 1975 to 1977.
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Old 08-29-2013, 12:04 PM   #738
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Here's a few gold mining stocks with 5-7% divs

They do, but mining stocks have been lousy investments.

Take a look at some of the traded oil services Limited Partnerships, they have both excellent growth and good dividend yields.
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Old 08-29-2013, 12:07 PM   #739
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Old 08-29-2013, 04:37 PM   #740
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Sell all your stocks and go all in on Gold? That's perhaps the singularly most idiotic financial advice I have seen in years.
Read what I said. ANY stocks, not ALL stocks. I can't think of a single stock that has a better chance than gold over the short term. Neither can you. You've already stated that a downturn is inevitable, and that you would cash in and pay off your mortgage. That would be a smart move while stocks are still high. Have you done that already?
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Old 08-29-2013, 04:42 PM   #741
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Also gold dealers short their gold. They only make money off the spread. If gold goes down, they are protected by the short. If it goes up, they aren't any richer because they shorted it.
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Old 08-29-2013, 05:34 PM   #742
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Fedyakin. You made a lot of assumptions. The biggest one was paying above spot for gold. You'd be shocked at how much under spot people are willing to sell for. My margins are greater than 20% the last few months. There are many ways to skin a cat. Gold certainly isn't the only tool to make a buck or I should say transform a dollar.

Try buying stocks at a 5-10% discount.
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Old 08-30-2013, 02:15 PM   #743
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Fedyakin. You made a lot of assumptions. The biggest one was paying above spot for gold. You'd be shocked at how much under spot people are willing to sell for.
Such as? Please do tell the group.

No doubt someone very plugged into the gold markets can find a good deal. A typical investor? Not so much.

Quote:
My margins are greater than 20% the last few months. There are many ways to skin a cat. Gold certainly isn't the only tool to make a buck or I should say transform a dollar.
Good for you.

Like I said a few posts ago, I've more than doubled my "play" money in the last few months. Not because I'm some great investor, just due to the nature of the markets and because I'm willing to tolerate (and closely manage!) the risk necessary to do that.

Quote:
Try buying stocks at a 5-10% discount.
Buying stock "at a discount" is called waiting for a market correction or a panic on a particular stock due to, for example, slightly less than expected profits reported (you can do very well by working panic sell offs, I have). Hell, because of the Syria business lots of stocks are at a 5-10% discount right now.
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Old 08-30-2013, 02:58 PM   #744
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Read what I said. ANY stocks, not ALL stocks. I can't think of a single stock that has a better chance than gold over the short term. Neither can you.
I can think of many investments (not necessarily stocks) that have a better chance than gold over the short term if there is a significant downturn. For example, a selection of hundreds of reverse ETFs (ETFs that seek to perform inversely to an index, market segment, etc. via shorting and other "betting against the market" strategies -- these are pretty much the go to "make money during a downturn" investment options).

Remember: judging any single investment by it's previous performance is pretty much investment suicide. Gold *might* go up, or it *might* go down. IMHO it's currently still highly over valued. Right now it's something people are investing in for emotional, not practical reasons. The big boys already have started getting out (as we discussed several pages back). They've squeezed what they think they can get out of the bubble, and are taking their profits and running.

Quote:
You've already stated that a downturn is inevitable, and that you would cash in and pay off your mortgage. That would be a smart move while stocks are still high. Have you done that already?
I'm watching things very closely and will make more moves when I see it as necessary. I've already made some moves, and despite a poor couple of weeks for various markets, I'm still up a bit, in particularly because of the moves I've made already. The thing is, it's a really bad move to act rashly, as there are tax implications.

That's the real key to investing by the way. It's not about chasing gains or even about trying to perfectly time peaks and valleys. You'll never do that. What you want to do is focus on mitigating losses during down turns.

One thing you never, ever do is put all or even most of your eggs in one basket (gold or otherwise).

It's also why your challenge about the next six months just proves you aren't really understanding investment. There is no single investment I would *ever* pick for *any* six month period and hang my hopes on it. Successful investment is a process, not a set of picks.
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Old 08-30-2013, 03:14 PM   #745
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I can think of many investments (not necessarily stocks) that have a better chance than gold over the short term if there is a significant downturn. For example, a selection of hundreds of reverse ETFs (ETFs that seek to perform inversely to an index, market segment, etc. via shorting and other "betting against the market" strategies -- these are pretty much the go to "make money during a downturn" investment options).

Remember: judging any single investment by it's previous performance is pretty much investment suicide. Gold *might* go up, or it *might* go down. IMHO it's currently still highly over valued. Right now it's something people are investing in for emotional, not practical reasons. The big boys already have started getting out (as we discussed several pages back). They've squeezed what they think they can get out of the bubble, and are taking their profits and running.



I'm watching things very closely and will make more moves when I see it as necessary. I've already made some moves, and despite a poor couple of weeks for various markets, I'm still up a bit, in particularly because of the moves I've made already. The thing is, it's a really bad move to act rashly, as there are tax implications.

That's the real key to investing by the way. It's not about chasing gains or even about trying to perfectly time peaks and valleys. You'll never do that. What you want to do is focus on mitigating losses during down turns.

One thing you never, ever do is put all or even most of your eggs in one basket (gold or otherwise).

It's also why your challenge about the next six months just proves you aren't really understanding investment. There is no single investment I would *ever* pick for *any* six month period and hang my hopes on it. Successful investment is a process, not a set of picks.
excellent post. my gamble pick for the next 6 mo is FNMA been riding it up and down like a cheap whore. if by some wild chance it ever comes out of conservatorship and gets relisted...well a guy can dream
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Old 09-18-2013, 05:52 PM   #746
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Canadian Billionaire Predicts End of US Dollar as World's Reserve Currency

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Canadian billionaire businessman Ned Goodman predicts the end of the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency. He predicts the transition out of the U.S. Dollar will become, "...quite ugly."

Lecture at Cambridge House's Toronto Resource Investment Conference 2013 on Thursday, September 12, 2013.

"In my view, the dollar is about to become dethroned as the world's de facto currency. I'll tell you how I came to that conclusion so quickly... the new President of China, Xi Jinping, his first visit on the day of his becoming President, was at his request to meet with Mr. Putin. And he immediately made a deal with Mr. Putin to get all the oil that he needs, which he can buy in Renminbi."

"We're headed to a period of stagflation, maybe serious inflation, but stagflation for sure, and the United States will be losing the privilege to print at its will, the world's reserve currency. A period that's going to be very inflationary, and I can t


http://www.informationclearinghouse....ticle36274.htm
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Old 09-18-2013, 09:55 PM   #747
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Canadian Billionaire Predicts End of US Dollar as World's Reserve Currency

Video

Canadian billionaire businessman Ned Goodman predicts the end of the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency. He predicts the transition out of the U.S. Dollar will become, "...quite ugly."

Lecture at Cambridge House's Toronto Resource Investment Conference 2013 on Thursday, September 12, 2013.

"In my view, the dollar is about to become dethroned as the world's de facto currency. I'll tell you how I came to that conclusion so quickly... the new President of China, Xi Jinping, his first visit on the day of his becoming President, was at his request to meet with Mr. Putin. And he immediately made a deal with Mr. Putin to get all the oil that he needs, which he can buy in Renminbi."

"We're headed to a period of stagflation, maybe serious inflation, but stagflation for sure, and the United States will be losing the privilege to print at its will, the world's reserve currency. A period that's going to be very inflationary, and I can t


http://www.informationclearinghouse....ticle36274.htm
shouldnt you be blowing Paul now?
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Old 09-19-2013, 06:12 AM   #748
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Everything is fine! Well except that Obama's new buddy at the treasury says we are on the brink of another financial crisis if obama can't get another blank check...

Another nice dip on the bluff the fed will taper. Nothing but straight up bull ****.

Going to get interesting the next couple of months.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...98G0KD20130917
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Old 09-19-2013, 06:29 AM   #749
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Everything is fine! Well except that Obama's new buddy at the treasury says we are on the brink of another financial crisis if obama can't get another blank check...

Another nice dip on the bluff the fed will taper. Nothing but straight up bull ****.

Going to get interesting the next couple of months.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...98G0KD20130917
LMAO Yeah, because defaulting on our debts (i.e. not paying for what we've already spent) is the greatest plan ever to improve our economy!

The GOP isn't just playing with fire, they are treating the demon core like a toy, and we're all going to get burnt if they let it go critical.
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Old 09-19-2013, 12:22 PM   #750
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LMAO Yeah, because defaulting on our debts (i.e. not paying for what we've already spent) is the greatest plan ever to improve our economy!


Let me make this simple. "Yes we can! Change" is not working.

As a result QE without end is underway. This has negative effects on the paper you keep in the bank. Those with large quantities of paper are at risk of holding paper and need to put it somewhere. If you have enough paper, real estate, business that cash flows, stocks, bonds etc people savy investors turn to gold on dips. See the charts today as the markets call out more BS from the fed.

Buy the dips. Another just happened. You might even consider locking in some of your precious profits and protect some of your wealth/family.

Blame the GOP blame who you want. I don't really care. We will soon be pushing 17 trillion in debt and their is a VERY clear relationship between the US debt and the price of gold/the value of the DXY. The true owners play this game on a huge scale.

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