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Old 09-28-2009, 12:48 PM   #1
Old Dude
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Default For you folks who like power polls

I almost hate to post this.


Sagarin ratings have the Broncos at #2.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm

01 Saints
02 Broncos
03 Ravens
04 Colts
05 Vikings
06 Giants
07 Jets
08 Patriots
09 49ers
10 Eagles
11 Bengals
12 Chargers
13 Bears
14 Cowboys
15 Packers
16 Steelers
17 Cardinals
18 Jaguars
19 Falcons
20 Seahawks
21 Lions
22 Bills
23 Browns
24 Redskins
25 Titans
26 Panthers
27 Dolphins
28 Texans
29 Raiders
30 Chiefs
31 Bucs
32 Rams



Applying their point spreads (assuming things stay the sme - which they won't) and ajusting for home field advantage, Denver would be underdogs in only two games this season: @ Baltimore and @ Indianapolis.

Last edited by Old Dude; 09-28-2009 at 12:53 PM..
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Old 09-28-2009, 12:49 PM   #2
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Well that sucks
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Old 09-28-2009, 12:50 PM   #3
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I wouldn't even put our team at #2 and i'm a homer...
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Old 09-28-2009, 12:51 PM   #4
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They're drinking their own bathwater.
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Old 09-28-2009, 12:52 PM   #5
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#2? Wow. That's insane. And above the Ravens, no less.
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Old 09-28-2009, 12:57 PM   #6
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This is a mathematical model, no human bias here but definitely flawed this early in the season. Interesting that our much maligned strength of schedule played is 20th. Baltimore gets so much credit and their SOS is 32.
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Old 09-28-2009, 01:00 PM   #7
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Baltimore is not the best team, overrated. Giants are the best team in football, Jets are solid too.
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Old 09-28-2009, 01:03 PM   #8
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Wow. I can see #12. Number 2 seems like a stretch though.
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Old 09-28-2009, 01:31 PM   #9
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Well, things are skewed because the Broncos have played some of the worst teams in the league in the first 3 weeks. We'll see where the Broncos end up after the next 3 weeks.
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Old 09-28-2009, 01:49 PM   #10
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The main reason that things are mathmatically tilted in favor of New Orleans and Denver is because the formula depends on margin of victory. A 21 point win over the Browns and a 20 point road win really boosted Denver up there.

But even if you toss out margin of victory and just go with W/L vs. teams based on their initial evaluation (by Sagerin) and strength of schedule, Denver still ranks 4th.
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Old 09-28-2009, 01:54 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmhargrove View Post
I wouldn't even put our team at #2 and i'm a homer...
me neither. If we go 5-1 or 6-0 to start the season, maybe then.
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Old 09-28-2009, 02:32 PM   #12
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Put down the calculator and slowly back away. We are not nearly that good yet.
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Old 09-28-2009, 02:49 PM   #13
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Quote:
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me neither. If we go 5-1 or 6-0 to start the season, maybe then.
Maybe.

On the other site. I said we start out 6-1. but then lose the rest and finish 10-6.


But hey lets enjoy 2 for now. Even if we all know that wont be where we end up.
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Old 09-28-2009, 03:35 PM   #14
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Strictly by numerical analysis, which is what I assume Sagarin does, the Broncos defense (to this point, obviously) puts them at the very top. The offense drags them down one spot.
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Old 09-28-2009, 04:56 PM   #15
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Too small of a sample. This model would be more accurate towards the middle of the season.
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Old 09-28-2009, 05:13 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bombay View Post
Strictly by numerical analysis, which is what I assume Sagarin does, the Broncos defense (to this point, obviously) puts them at the very top. The offense drags them down one spot.
Heh, this.
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Old 09-28-2009, 05:34 PM   #17
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Sagarin and Footballoutsiders formula's are both flawed early on.

As the season progresses they get better but even a blind squirrel can tell who the good teams are as the season progresses.

Footballoutsiders is particularly stupid early on because it is based on pre-season projections of how the team will do. And they claim no bias? BWAHAHAHA.
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Old 09-29-2009, 08:14 AM   #18
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With the Dallas win last night (which affected the overall power ratings in terms of schedule strength) Denver passed by the Saints and is is now ranked number one.



http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm

I guess we may as well enjoy it while it lasts.
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Old 09-29-2009, 08:18 AM   #19
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Booya!
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Old 09-29-2009, 08:36 AM   #20
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thanks for posting...I had seen the Football Outsiders rankings before, and I'm not sure if this Sagarin stuff is the same thing or not, but it's fun to look through.

I don't care too much for its uses with the current season, but it's fun too look through the archives at previous years. It's interesting to look at how teams performed in relation to their end of season calculated strength of schedule.

It's always really bothered me that there will be a lot of strength of schedules tossed about before a season even starts to help people "forecast" how a given team will perform.

Anyway, thanks for sharing!
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Old 09-29-2009, 08:36 AM   #21
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The amazing thing is the rest of the top ten is pretty accurate.
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Old 09-29-2009, 08:45 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Dude View Post
With the Dallas win last night (which affected the overall power ratings in terms of schedule strength) Denver passed by the Saints and is is now ranked number one.



http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm

I guess we may as well enjoy it while it lasts.
Realistically we should be at 7-1/2 or so. JMHO
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Old 09-29-2009, 09:50 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loborugger View Post
#2? Wow. That's insane. And above the Ravens, no less.
Why all the love for the Ravens? They struggled to beat the Chiefs.

They looked as mediocre as the Bolts did when they played them. Gave up almost500 yards and Rivers hung 430 on them. That defense is on the way out.
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Old 09-29-2009, 10:08 AM   #24
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Guys you realize that every "top" teams in those other "polls" has two wins against the " haven't played anybody teams".
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