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Old 09-09-2009, 11:25 PM   #1
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Default Enough opinion ... cold hard stats on "expert picks"

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...tions-analysis

We may stink it up, we may not

but don't get too down on the expert predictions
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Old 09-09-2009, 11:37 PM   #2
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thats some funny ****, and exactly why i dont get into "preseason power rankings" and all that BS.
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Old 09-09-2009, 11:38 PM   #3
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"ZOMGGGGG THEY LOST CUTLER...TEH MARSHULL SITUATION"

...is basically all people are basing their predictions on.

A. Marshall will probably play
B. Orton is fine for our system, not to mention he has double the amount of weapons and a better line to boot than he did in Chi-town
C. There is absolutely no way with Nolan and the new additions that our D will be as bad as last year's

That people are saying we will be worse than the Chiefs an Raiders is ****ing hysterical.
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Old 09-09-2009, 11:40 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McNeckbeard View Post
"ZOMGGGGG THEY LOST CUTLER...TEH MARSHULL SITUATION"

...is basically all people are basing their predictions on.

A. Marshall will probably play
B. Orton is fine for our system, not to mention he has double the amount of weapons and a better line to boot than he did in Chi-town
C. There is absolutely no way with Nolan and the new additions that our D will be as bad as last year's

That people are saying we will be worse than the Chiefs an Raiders is ****ing hysterical.
exactly. hell the D has showed signs of being AVERAGE to GOOD this year. orton is obviously still a question mark and he hasnt answered anything yet, but the rest of the team has essentially taken leaps forward.
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Old 09-09-2009, 11:45 PM   #5
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exactly. hell the D has showed signs of being AVERAGE to GOOD this year. orton is obviously still a question mark and he hasnt answered anything yet, but the rest of the team has essentially taken leaps forward.
Outside of the QB position we are better everywhere...literally...every position.
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Old 09-09-2009, 11:50 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by McNeckbeard View Post
Outside of the QB position we are better everywhere...literally...every position.
only Q-mark i have is the man blocking scheme with o-line. they arent really built for it, but teh last game showed it will be essentially a zone running attack between the 20s...
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Old 09-09-2009, 11:55 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by tsiguy96 View Post
exactly. hell the D has showed signs of being AVERAGE to GOOD this year. orton is obviously still a question mark and he hasnt answered anything yet, but the rest of the team has essentially taken leaps forward.
Got that out of those meaningless pre-season games did ya?
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Old 09-09-2009, 11:57 PM   #8
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That's probably the best "article" Ive ever read on Bleacher Report.

Actually had facts, and the guy did research.

And anytime someone is bashing "experts" Im all for it.

3 of the 7 teams NO ONE Picked are in the AFC West. Thats sad.
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Old 09-10-2009, 12:04 AM   #9
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Got that out of those meaningless pre-season games did ya?
when you are getting pressure against first stringers and the D actually looks like it wants to be out there, its an improvement
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Old 09-10-2009, 12:18 AM   #10
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The last time expectations were this low for us was definitely pre-internet days, so there's no way to even reference it as far as writers/etc.

As I've said, I love it. Please count this team out... overlook us... assume we'll be garbage.

Hopefully our opponents buy into the same hype.

I just watched some fat **** on NFLN saying the AFC West was a one team division with the remainders challenging Detroit for the #1 overall pick next year.


Keep it up the good work media!
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Old 09-10-2009, 12:43 AM   #11
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it's confirmed..........John Clayton is an "IDIOT"


I love it.

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Old 09-10-2009, 01:25 AM   #12
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Funny you posted the link but not this:

Consensus - The Steelers, Chargers and Patriots were picked by all 31 experts to make the playoffs - All of them picked San Diego and New England to win the division. I can see that because of the competition, but not one person took a chance with a different team. New England should win the East, but they are one Brady injury away from a lot of trouble and Miami should still be competitive. The Chargers were 5-8 at one point last year. Are they really worthy of consensus, with Norv Turner as the coach, even if any of the other 3 teams winning would be stretch? The consensus teams of last year were the Cowboys and the Patriots, and we saw how well that worked out for them.



Almost Consensus - The Giants and Eagles were picked by 28 experts and the Colts by 27 experts – The Giants play in a tough division and have a lot of offensive questions. The Eagles are going to take a separate article to show why they won’t make the playoffs. The Colts have two major things going against them. Since 1983, only 1 team has made the playoffs 8 years in a row and that was the 49ers from 83-90. Also, 8 times in the last 9 years, the #5 seed in the AFC have not made the playoffs. With a new coach and a questionable defense, the Colts look far from a sure thing.



Popular Picks – The Falcons, Ravens and Titans were picked by 25 experts – The Ravens and Falcons both came up from bad records the previous year with rookie quarterbacks to make the playoffs. In the last 6 years, 15 teams rose up from 6 wins or less to make the playoffs. Only 3 of them returned to the playoffs the next year. Out of the Dolphins, Falcons and Ravens, at least two of them are not going back.



The rest of the totals are below, and as you can see a lot of teams are already written off. I guarantee at least 1 of those teams with 0 or 1 or 2 people picking them makes the playoffs. How the experts picked the rest of the lot:



18 experts - Packers

17 experts – Cardinals

12 experts – Seahawks

11 experts – Saints

8 experts – Cowboys and Bears

6 experts – Panthers and Texans

3 experts – 49ers

2 experts – Jaguars, Bengals, Dolphins and Bills (good luck with that)

1 expert – Jets and Redskins

Nobody – Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Browns, Lions, Rams and Bucs
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Old 09-10-2009, 01:29 AM   #13
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Wow..

Considering or line and WR core, and revamped secondary, you would think ONE "expert", would pick the Broncos.
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Old 09-10-2009, 01:32 AM   #14
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Nobody – Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Browns, Lions, Rams and Bucs
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Wow.

5 months and we're bottom feeders.

IN OUR OWN DIVISION!
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Old 09-10-2009, 02:00 AM   #15
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i love it, in 4 months we get to serve the sports world a big plate of crow
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Old 09-10-2009, 02:12 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Popps View Post
The last time expectations were this low for us was definitely pre-internet days, so there's no way to even reference it as far as writers/etc.

As I've said, I love it. Please count this team out... overlook us... assume we'll be garbage.

Hopefully our opponents buy into the same hype.

I just watched some fat **** on NFLN saying the AFC West was a one team division with the remainders challenging Detroit for the #1 overall pick next year.


Keep it up the good work media!
and if you weren't a Broncos fan you'd agree with them.
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Old 09-10-2009, 02:25 AM   #17
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and if you weren't a Broncos fan you'd agree with them.
Agreing with people who are wrong more often then right is prety silly
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Old 09-10-2009, 02:46 AM   #18
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Agreing with people who are wrong more often then right is prety silly
Other then the fact we play in the worst division in football right now I have seen very little done this off-season that leads me to think that the media is wrong for thinking we are in for a long year. This isn't our first go around with "insert wonder DC with lots of success in the NFL" and poof everything is all better now. We play a lot of NFL teams that more often then not are ready to play good football every Sunday. 6 of them. NE, Balt, Pitt, Indy, NYG, and Philly. Those are not teams I want to see with this much change going on with the team. Still its only 6 games out of 16. The other 4 non division games are winnable, I will give our team that. Then there is the AFC West games which no matter how good or bad a team is those games are never a lock. I'm sticking to my 8-8 prediction because we still have Marshall. He makes our O better and with him I think we can steal a game or two, but Orton needs to play better then he has in preseason, if he doesn't we won't win more then 5.
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Old 09-10-2009, 02:54 AM   #19
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Agreing with people who are wrong more often then right is prety silly
Regardless.

9 picks and plenty of FA money and a new DC as coach...


NONE pick us as a playoff team.

In fact, noone picks any team from the AFC West.
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Old 09-10-2009, 03:16 AM   #20
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Regardless.

9 picks and plenty of FA money and a new DC as coach...


NONE pick us as a playoff team.

In fact, noone picks any team from the AFC West.
Except the mighty Chargers (everyone said they were in - makes sense when everyone says the other 3 teams won't be) who will yet again not make the Super Bowl.
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Old 09-10-2009, 03:43 AM   #21
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Agreing with people who are wrong more often then right is prety silly
well of course they're wrong more often than they're right! ask someone to pick a super bowl winner, and they're picking one team. that means they are not picking 31 other teams. ask them for playoff teams, and they are picking twelve teams, which means they are not picking 20 others. ask them for a division winner, and they are picking one team, which means they are not picking three other teams. odds are they'd be wrong much more often than they'd be right! but they beat those odds by a significant margin fairly consistently, which is about all you can ask.
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Old 09-10-2009, 04:01 AM   #22
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The one problem I see with this analysis predicting new playoff teams is that the author failed to distinguish what constitutes "new". I would suggest that a new playoff team should not receive that designation if they made the playoffs 5 years in a row, then skipped a year with an injured quarterback before returning the following season, but if that's how he identified new playoff participants, the results would prove less significant than if he counted only teams returning after a 2 or 3 year absence, etc... He ought to clarify this. I'd also like to know how many of the new teams won divison titles vs. winning wild cards. Suppose a team hovering around 8-8 for a couple years then goes 9-7 and gets in via the wild card. Have they really accomplished much? A won-loss breakdown would be ideal here.
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Old 09-10-2009, 04:08 AM   #23
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Nobody – Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Browns, Lions, Rams and Bucs
that means the bottom has 3 of 4 AFC West teams.

By CONSENSUS.
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Old 09-10-2009, 04:26 AM   #24
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The one problem I see with this analysis predicting new playoff teams is that the author failed to distinguish what constitutes "new". I would suggest that a new playoff team should not receive that designation if they made the playoffs 5 years in a row, then skipped a year with an injured quarterback before returning the following season, but if that's how he identified new playoff participants, the results would prove less significant than if he counted only teams returning after a 2 or 3 year absence, etc... He ought to clarify this. I'd also like to know how many of the new teams won divison titles vs. winning wild cards. Suppose a team hovering around 8-8 for a couple years then goes 9-7 and gets in via the wild card. Have they really accomplished much? A won-loss breakdown would be ideal here.

Wow....

Care to put that in an equation?

I would put the 98 Broncos in that mix.
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Old 09-10-2009, 06:03 AM   #25
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Shocking that John Clayton is in the "Idiots" section, isn't it?
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