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Old 07-28-2009, 04:20 PM   #1
Lev Vyvanse
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Default Being better than the Chargers might not be that challenging

In my opinion in order for the Broncos to make the playoffs we really only have to do one thing and that is have a better season then the Chargers. Assuming the Raiders and Chiefs don’t have a dramatic turnarounds, if the broncos have a better season we should win the division. I was bored today so I decided on taking a little deeper look into the Chargers upcoming season.
Since taking over as Head coach of the Chargers Norv Turner has seen little turnover in personnel but has continually seen diminishing returns in the win column.
Starters since 2004:

The 2009 Chargers have continued the pattern with minimal off season moves. The team lost Igor Olshansky to free agency and Shawne Merriman will be back after knee surgery. No real free agents of merited were brought in by the organization.
Graph of wins, pt differential ranking, and yd differential ranking:

Note that pt and yard differential are an inverse ranking where 32 is the best and 1 is the worst.
If these trends continue the 2009 Chargers will be the third worse team in yardage differential amassing just five wins.

The Broncos schedule is extremely difficult this year so I decided to compare it to the chargers schedule.
Schedule comparison (games that are not identical):

Opponents who are different
Denver:
Tab@ Colts
TabPatriots

Chargers:
Tab@ Titans
TabDolphins
This might be one of the only seasons that I would rather play @ Colts than @ Titans. The Colts have lost their head coach, offensive coordinator, and offensive line coach. The Titans are come off a season that resulted in the best record in the NFL but were upset in the first round of the playoffs. The team lost Albert Haynesworth but should be hungry after a disappointing postseason. Playing the Dolphins at home instead of playing the Patriots is clearly an advantage for the Chargers.
Advantage: push

AFC North
Denver:
TabBrowns
Tab@ Bengals
Tab@ Ravens
TabSteelers

Chargers:
Tab@ Browns
TabBengals
TabRavens
Tab@ Steelers
The AFC North is made up of two probable playoff teams and two teams that fantasize about playing in either west division. The Broncos get the Steelers at home and play at Baltimore while the Chargers have the opposite schedule. Having the Super Bowl champions at home gives the slightest edge to the Broncos.
Advantage: Broncos

NFC East
Denver:
TabGiants
Tab@ Eagles
TabCowboys
Tab@ Redskins

Chargers:
Tab@ Giants
TabEagles
Tab@ Cowboys
TabRedskins
Last year no team in the NFC east had a losing record. The one winnable road game might be the Redskins. Denver plays the Giants and Cowboys at home giving them the upper hand in my opinion.
Advantage: Broncos

Days of preparation compared to opponent for each game is a scheduling component that is often overlooked.
Here are the game breakdowns:
Broncos @ Bengals 0
Broncos vs. Browns 0
Broncos @ Raiders 0
Broncos vs. Cowboys +1
Broncos vs. Patriots 0
Broncos @ Chargers -7
Broncos @ Ravens -1
Broncos vs. Steelers -7
Broncos @ Redskins -1
Broncos vs. Chargers 0
Broncos vs. Giants 0
Broncos @ Chiefs +3
Broncos @ Colts 0
Broncos vs. Raiders 0
Broncos @ Eagles 0
Broncos vs. Chiefs 0
Total -12 days of prep

Chargers @ Raiders 0
Chargers vs. Ravens -1
Chargers vs. Dolphins +1
Chargers @ Steelers 0
Chargers vs. Broncos +7
Chargers @ Chiefs -1
Chargers vs. Raiders 0
Chargers @ Giants 0
Chargers vs. Eagles 0
Chargers @ Broncos 0
Chargers vs. Chiefs 0
Chargers @ Browns 0
Chargers @ Cowboys 0
Chargers vs. Bengals 0
Chargers @ Titans 0
Chargers vs. Redskins +2
Total +8 days of prep

The middle part of Denver’s schedule is brutal and to make matters worse the opponents will have extra time to prepare. I tried to find some homer stats to make it look better but couldn’t find much. Denver plays two teams that have a bye week before the match up, the Chargers and the Steelers.

Norv after bye
TabW- 7 L-4 winning percentage 63.6%
Life time
TabW-77 L-95 winning percentage 44.7%
Norv is almost twenty percentage points better after a bye week.

Pittsburg last ten years after bye
TabW-6 L-4 winning percentage 60%
Last ten years record
TabW-100 L-59 winning percentage 62.5%
Pittsburg doesn’t seem to take advantage of their bye week.

Preparation Advantage: Chargers

Both schedules seem to be even or at least could be argued either way.

After taking everything into account I think the Chargers will be worse than they were a year ago. Because the schedule difficulty is even if the Broncos can manage to field a team that is as good as last years we should be able to make the playoffs.
I know there are holes in my logic the size of Texas. So please feel free to flame away.
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Old 07-28-2009, 04:41 PM   #2
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The only way we will be able to beat the chargers for the division title is if the team actually shows up for the games against them. Not just the offense like the 1st game of last year, and we sure as hell can't get by with nobody showing up like the 2nd game of last year and the 4 games against them from '06 to '07.

We'll have to see how well the team responds to McD's coaching before we can hypothesize as to whether or not that will happen. The bolts certainly are overrated by the media, so hopefully we can pull some old-fashioned Broncos underdog magic against them this year.
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Old 07-28-2009, 04:44 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misturanderson View Post
The only way we will be able to beat the chargers for the division title is if the team actually shows up for the games against them. Not just the offense like the 1st game of last year, and we sure as hell can't get by with nobody showing up like the 2nd game of last year and the 4 games against them from '06 to '07.

We'll have to see how well the team responds to McD's coaching before we can hypothesize as to whether or not that will happen. The bolts certainly are overrated by the media, so hopefully we can pull some old-fashioned Broncos underdog magic against them this year.
This is why I only talked about the Chargers. I have no ****ing clue how good the Broncos will be this season.
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Old 07-28-2009, 04:55 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheTrueOne View Post
This is why I only talked about the Chargers. I have no ****ing clue how good the Broncos will be this season.
It's a pretty crazy feeling after 14 years under the same head coach.

I would agree that anyone thinking the chargers will go 12-4 and get to the superbowl is probably kidding themselves. I mean the chargers were better than us last year, but not by much. They still have a hard schedule like the rest of the AFC west, and I'm not sure what they've really done to improve their defense other than selecting English in the 1st. IF Merriman is healthy, he could account for a win or two, but that seems like a big IF.

Last edited by misturanderson; 07-28-2009 at 05:01 PM..
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Old 07-28-2009, 05:01 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheTrueOne View Post
In my opinion in order for the Broncos to make the playoffs we really only have to do one thing and that is have a better season then the Chargers. Assuming the Raiders and Chiefs don’t have a dramatic turnarounds, if the broncos have a better season we should win the division. I was bored today so I decided on taking a little deeper look into the Chargers upcoming season.
Since taking over as Head coach of the Chargers Norv Turner has seen little turnover in personnel but has continually seen diminishing returns in the win column.
Starters since 2004:

The 2009 Chargers have continued the pattern with minimal off season moves. The team lost Igor Olshansky to free agency and Shawne Merriman will be back after knee surgery. No real free agents of merited were brought in by the organization.
Graph of wins, pt differential ranking, and yd differential ranking:

Note that pt and yard differential are an inverse ranking where 32 is the best and 1 is the worst.
If these trends continue the 2009 Chargers will be the third worse team in yardage differential amassing just five wins.

The Broncos schedule is extremely difficult this year so I decided to compare it to the chargers schedule.
Schedule comparison (games that are not identical):

Opponents who are different
Denver:
Tab@ Colts
TabPatriots

Chargers:
Tab@ Titans
TabDolphins
This might be one of the only seasons that I would rather play @ Colts than @ Titans. The Colts have lost their head coach, offensive coordinator, and offensive line coach. The Titans are come off a season that resulted in the best record in the NFL but were upset in the first round of the playoffs. The team lost Albert Haynesworth but should be hungry after a disappointing postseason. Playing the Dolphins at home instead of playing the Patriots is clearly an advantage for the Chargers.
Advantage: push

AFC North
Denver:
TabBrowns
Tab@ Bengals
Tab@ Ravens
TabSteelers

Chargers:
Tab@ Browns
TabBengals
TabRavens
Tab@ Steelers
The AFC North is made up of two probable playoff teams and two teams that fantasize about playing in either west division. The Broncos get the Steelers at home and play at Baltimore while the Chargers have the opposite schedule. Having the Super Bowl champions at home gives the slightest edge to the Broncos.
Advantage: Broncos

NFC East
Denver:
TabGiants
Tab@ Eagles
TabCowboys
Tab@ Redskins

Chargers:
Tab@ Giants
TabEagles
Tab@ Cowboys
TabRedskins
Last year no team in the NFC east had a losing record. The one winnable road game might be the Redskins. Denver plays the Giants and Cowboys at home giving them the upper hand in my opinion.
Advantage: Broncos

Days of preparation compared to opponent for each game is a scheduling component that is often overlooked.
Here are the game breakdowns:
Broncos @ Bengals 0
Broncos vs. Browns 0
Broncos @ Raiders 0
Broncos vs. Cowboys +1
Broncos vs. Patriots 0
Broncos @ Chargers -7
Broncos @ Ravens -1
Broncos vs. Steelers -7
Broncos @ Redskins -1
Broncos vs. Chargers 0
Broncos vs. Giants 0
Broncos @ Chiefs +3
Broncos @ Colts 0
Broncos vs. Raiders 0
Broncos @ Eagles 0
Broncos vs. Chiefs 0
Total -12 days of prep

Chargers @ Raiders 0
Chargers vs. Ravens -1
Chargers vs. Dolphins +1
Chargers @ Steelers 0
Chargers vs. Broncos +7
Chargers @ Chiefs -1
Chargers vs. Raiders 0
Chargers @ Giants 0
Chargers vs. Eagles 0
Chargers @ Broncos 0
Chargers vs. Chiefs 0
Chargers @ Browns 0
Chargers @ Cowboys 0
Chargers vs. Bengals 0
Chargers @ Titans 0
Chargers vs. Redskins +2
Total +8 days of prep

The middle part of Denver’s schedule is brutal and to make matters worse the opponents will have extra time to prepare. I tried to find some homer stats to make it look better but couldn’t find much. Denver plays two teams that have a bye week before the match up, the Chargers and the Steelers.

Norv after bye
TabW- 7 L-4 winning percentage 63.6%
Life time
TabW-77 L-95 winning percentage 44.7%
Norv is almost twenty percentage points better after a bye week.

Pittsburg last ten years after bye
TabW-6 L-4 winning percentage 60%
Last ten years record
TabW-100 L-59 winning percentage 62.5%
Pittsburg doesn’t seem to take advantage of their bye week.

Preparation Advantage: Chargers

Both schedules seem to be even or at least could be argued either way.

After taking everything into account I think the Chargers will be worse than they were a year ago. Because the schedule difficulty is even if the Broncos can manage to field a team that is as good as last years we should be able to make the playoffs.
I know there are holes in my logic the size of Texas. So please feel free to flame away.
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Old 07-28-2009, 05:04 PM   #6
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Being better than the Chargers might not be that challenging & yet the smart money is on us not being up to the challenge.
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Old 07-28-2009, 05:39 PM   #7
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SD record wise is in a downward trend, but has reached the divisional round the past three years. 8-8 could win the division again...which is a sad commentary.

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Old 07-28-2009, 05:52 PM   #8
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good read
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Old 07-28-2009, 06:19 PM   #9
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I think it comes down to head to head competition between us and the Bolts. The key for us is whether our defense has improved. Our offense will score points...that's why we have McDaniels. But, can our defense stop Rivers and that very good running game?

If the defense is improved...then we could very well beat the Chargers and win the division this year.
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Old 07-28-2009, 07:11 PM   #10
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The Chargers are going to win at least 12 games this year.
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Old 07-28-2009, 07:16 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lander View Post
The Chargers are going to win at least 12 games this year.
The Chargers would have won 12 games if they would have decided to fired Norv Turner right after the season was over.

Last edited by Lev Vyvanse; 07-28-2009 at 07:19 PM..
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Old 07-28-2009, 08:21 PM   #12
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The Chargers are going to win at least 12 games this year.
They won't come close to touching 12, but then again, the Broncos could likely be sniffing the cellar this yr.
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Old 07-28-2009, 08:37 PM   #13
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The Chargers are going to win at least 12 games this year.
You may win the division but with Norm at the helm you won't go past 10 wins. I expect another average or worse start to the season.
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Old 07-28-2009, 08:46 PM   #14
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the Broncos could likely be sniffing the cellar this yr.
Not as long as Oakland and Kansas City play in the AFC West.
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Old 07-28-2009, 10:30 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loborugger View Post
Being better than the Chargers might not be that challenging & yet the smart money is on us not being up to the challenge.
we are no longer the Shanahan coached Cutler led Broncos. a few things to know from McDaniels and Nolan is that the team will be well prepared and will not lay down and accept defeat the way we have the last few years.

and without Cutler, we won't see Orton moping on the field because he is down a few points, and no longer will we see a player with an ego so huge he believes he can throw a football through triple coverage and believe that he is god's gift to the NFL when he hasn't accomplished anything to this point in his career.
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Old 07-29-2009, 12:02 AM   #16
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One thing to ponder is that the Broncos have experience playing against the Chargers but the Chargers have no experience playing against a McD-led Broncos team.

Advantage Broncos!!
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Old 07-29-2009, 12:20 AM   #17
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Every analysis I've read and watched on shows like NFL live on ESPN predict the Chargers to make a strong run at the Super Bowl again. Not one I've seen or heard even thinks the Broncos have a chance. Not even a little chance.

That's all nonsense ofcourse because no games have been played, but historically it does seem take new coaches a season or two to build up a winner. Even HOF coach Joe Gibbs said in a local interview recently he believes Mc Daniels will struggle in his first year, or even his first two seasons. I do wonder if Bowlen, or the fans for that matter, will give him that time, and that's assuming he can get it done at all.
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Old 07-29-2009, 12:22 AM   #18
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I think Chargers will be really tough to beat this yr. I think they had the throw away yr much like Broncos losing to Jags before making a run in 97. I know the seasons vastly different as we rocked all yr and Chargers underachieved but the result sort of the same. A yr where you were poised to win it all, but it didn't work out.

Now people sort of forgetting about chargers. Talented Charger team always do better with less pressure and less expectation for the season.

I predict they get off to a fast start and probably run away with the division. Who knows though if any team can continue to waste talent and opportunity its the chargers.
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Old 07-29-2009, 08:06 AM   #19
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I just don't see a fast start for them. Every year with Norm has been a sluggish start and if it wasn't for the West sucking so badly they would never have made the playoffs to begin with. I guess that's the lone bright spot of collapsing like that. Norm kept his job.
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Old 07-29-2009, 08:18 AM   #20
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The Chargers might stumble, but don't count on it.

If you look at last year, they also had their share of bad luck at the beginning of the season. Before the first two weeks of the season are done:

They have lost their biggest defensive playmaker.
They lose on a last second miracle catch in Carolina.
They lose on a last minute bad call by Hochuli. Also, if you remember, there was the early INT by Champ when Hochuli couldn't review the play.
And finally, LT injures his foot which never really seemed too get better last season.

If they have better luck, they could be very hot and get out to an early divisional lead.
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Old 07-29-2009, 08:19 AM   #21
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14-2 in 2006, 11-5 in 2007, 8-8 in 2008...For the "premier" team that is not the Patriots to have a record trending down is never a good thing. It is sad that while they have trended down, so has the rest of the division. 8 wins more than likely gets the division again, and we may hate KC and Oak, but you can legitimately say they have a shot to upset SD, too and steal the division from them.

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Old 07-29-2009, 09:14 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmhargrove View Post
The Chargers might stumble, but don't count on it.

If you look at last year, they also had their share of bad luck at the beginning of the season. Before the first two weeks of the season are done:

They have lost their biggest defensive playmaker.
They lose on a last second miracle catch in Carolina.
They lose on a last minute bad call by Hochuli. Also, if you remember, there was the early INT by Champ when Hochuli couldn't review the play.
And finally, LT injures his foot which never really seemed too get better last season.

If they have better luck, they could be very hot and get out to an early divisional lead.
Yeah but you have to consider LT is only getting older, the schedule is brutal this year, and the trend with Norm is slow and sluggish starts. They also had a bit of good luck to win a game or two if I recall. Add to that last year the slow start just kept going and going.

They could win the division but it won't be much to cheer about. Norm is doing solid work bringing that team down.
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Old 07-29-2009, 09:17 AM   #23
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Why do we get the Colts and Pats and they get Miami and Tennessee lol. Damnit, we got jipped.
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Old 07-29-2009, 09:19 AM   #24
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Why do we get the Colts and Pats and they get Miami and Tennessee lol. Damnit, we got jipped.
Colts and Pats finsihed 2nd in their divisions...


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Old 07-29-2009, 10:31 AM   #25
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Every analysis I've read and watched on shows like NFL live on ESPN predict the Chargers to make a strong run at the Super Bowl again. Not one I've seen or heard even thinks the Broncos have a chance. Not even a little chance.
And how is that different from the past 3 years? We've seen how that's worked out for them.
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