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Old 07-13-2009, 12:02 PM   #1
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Default Football Outsiders Almanac 2009

Has anyone purchased the PDF version yet and if so how is the Bronco's section? Last year it was really bad and I don't want to spend the money if it's that bad again.
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Old 07-13-2009, 12:10 PM   #2
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I did and the broncos are projected to have the least number of wins. AFCW is projected like this:


Denver 4.9 wins
Oak 6.0
KC 6.7
SD 12.5

Last year they projected both Den and Sd to have around 8.X wins so why did you think last year was bad?
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Old 07-13-2009, 05:23 PM   #3
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Clearly there's more to the articles than just their projections for the coming year.

1) It was mostly a rehash of really dated material.

2) Ripped on Royal without any kind of basis.

3) Even when first published they had all sorts of the wrong people playing for the Bronco's and in the wrong spot.

4) Little errors like calling Nate Webster Nate Wayne
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Old 07-13-2009, 05:28 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by summerdenver View Post
Last year they projected both Den and Sd to have around 8.X wins...
"Lucky" or did they do well league wide?
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Old 07-13-2009, 05:52 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fan In Exile View Post
Clearly there's more to the articles than just their projections for the coming year.

1) It was mostly a rehash of really dated material.

2) Ripped on Royal without any kind of basis.

3) Even when first published they had all sorts of the wrong people playing for the Bronco's and in the wrong spot.

4) Little errors like calling Nate Webster Nate Wayne
Those were publisher errors for the most part, and part of WHY the new one is the almanac instead of the Prospectus... Publisher made significant oversight errors and wanted the material well before the analysis was finished. However, I will get the new PDF version and proof it ASAP.
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Old 07-13-2009, 06:48 PM   #6
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Those were publisher errors for the most part, and part of WHY the new one is the almanac instead of the Prospectus... Publisher made significant oversight errors and wanted the material well before the analysis was finished. However, I will get the new PDF version and proof it ASAP.
That's good to know, I just want to know if it's worth the money.
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Old 07-13-2009, 06:53 PM   #7
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"Lucky" or did they do well league wide?
They did well for the most part (predicted Bal for e.g.).

Their big miss last year was Hou, who had to deal with Hurricane at the beginning of the year. Theirs is purely statistical analysis so there is no bias in their projctions. They stick to their system no matter how unlikely it might seem. For e.g. they project St Louis to win 8 games and Ari to win 6 this year.
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Old 07-13-2009, 07:08 PM   #8
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They did well for the most part...
I'm surprised they would have predicted only 8.x wins for SD last season. They were a Super Bowl fave coming into the season but clearly things didn't work out that way. That's a hell of a good prediction model.
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Old 07-13-2009, 10:11 PM   #9
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I'm surprised they would have predicted only 8.x wins for SD last season. They were a Super Bowl fave coming into the season but clearly things didn't work out that way. That's a hell of a good prediction model.
Yes they have the best rankings currently for football as they take into consideration things like oppostion quality, garbage time stats etc. they also project based on things that carried forward to the next year. for e.g. Fumble recovery is not consistent from year to year.

Its been while ago but IIRC, 2007 chargers have a average overall defense but they made up for it being very very good in red zone and forcing turnovers. Their research told them that teams that are not fundamentallly good do not get the red zone stats/turnovers (2005 cin) carried forward, hence they expected a regression.

They have lot of very good articles (free) and you can also read the NYG chapter for free on their site. You should check it out.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com
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Old 07-14-2009, 12:49 AM   #10
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Support my chaver. Buy the PDF file. He needs your gold.

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